Pod vs Steamer Projections — ERA Upside

We’re winding down our comparison of the Pod Projections and Steamer projections and will finish things off by moving on over to starting pitchers. What do we care about most? ERA, of course. So we’ll begin by checking in on a smattering of fantasy relevant hurlers in which I’m forecasting a significantly better ERA than Steamer. Interestingly, it appears that I’m simply far more bullish than Steamer in general, as I’m forecasting a lower ERA for 141 of the 161 starters that I project! That’s pretty crazy.

Before we begin our look, let’s quickly discuss my Steamer observations. Since I project players myself, I am very familiar with the way Steamer forecasts pitchers and the types of pitchers it will consistently get right and the types it will always get wrong. Steamer and ZiPS are essentially opposite in that the former seemingly regresses the luck metrics (BABIP, HR/9, LOB%) toward the league average to a much greater degree. On the other hand, the latter system assumes these metrics are more the result of pitcher skill, and therefore regresses less aggressively.

Personally, I lean toward the Steamer methodology, as the majority of pitchers require severe regression. However, often times this isn’t actually the case and Steamer ends up over-regressing. While I don’t have historical projections to compare, Matt Cain is a perfect example of a pitcher that Steamer got wrong every year, while ZiPS got right, or…less wrong. Keep this in mind when looking at some of the names on the below list. I have the advantage of projecting batted ball type distribution and can therefore identify which pitchers have legit BABIP suppression skills, while Steamer does not know who induces gobs of pop-ups and fly balls (Steamer also got Jered Weaver and Chris Young wrong, as well, for the same reasons).

It’s a BABIP Thing

You can see from the table that I’m projecting a lower BABIP for nearly every pitcher on this list. This is definitely one of the reasons I’m more optimistic about each of their ERA marks. But let’s discuss some of the specific players most affected by the discrepancy in BABIP forecasts.

Marco Estrada has made a living by suppressing BABIP as an extreme fly ball pitcher who induces a ton of pop-ups. He hasn’t posted a BABIP above .262 since 2012, yet Steamer is projecting his highest mark since that season. He continues to play in front of an excellent defense as well, which helps to further reduce his BABIP. That 4.80 ERA projected by Steamer would be a career high…by far.

Shoulder issues might conspire against Chris Tillman and make his inclusion hear look silly, but he’s another guy who has always posted below league average BABIP marks. Steamer is projecting his highest BABIP since 2011 and doesn’t believe in his ERA rebound last year. Tillman’s skills have always been soft, but aside from his disastrous 2015, he has always vastly outperformed those skills. An always strong Orioles defense has helped and should continue to.

Ervin Santana, Tanner Roark, and Julio Teheran have all posted suppressed BABIPs most seasons (Roark with a shorter track record), and there’s little reason to think that this is the year all the magic is going to suddenly wear off. The 4.54 Steamer ERA projection for Santana would be his highest since 2012 and second highest since 2009. For Teheran, it would be a career worst.

It’s a Strikeout Rate Thing

For Jordan Zimmermann, I’m simply projecting a larger dead cat bounce for strikeout rate than Steamer is. Figure injuries had something to do with his awful performance, it has to get better!

Nate Karns is projected to endure a significant dip in strikeout rate by Steamer, but not me! He actually pushed his SwStk% to a new career high last year, supporting a better than average strikeout rate.

It was pretty cool to see Dylan Bundy finally return to the Majors and he was pretty darn good. Aside from some homer issues, which many a pitcher suffered from, he showed strong velocity and featured a fantastic changeup. Steamer sees his strikeout rate declining, but I see a high rate of whiffs and even better things ahead.

The “Are You Sure You’re Only Including Fantasy Relevant Starters?” Section

Oof, that’s one terrible Jimmy Nelson forecast. His skills moved in the wrong direction last year, and although Steamer and I are projecting similar underlying skills, the computer expects Nelson to essentially repeat the inflated HR/FB rate and post a sub-70% LOB%. I’m not significantly more bullish, but slightly better here and there all combine for a much better ERA. It’s the difference between throwing a dollar at him in an NL-Only league or staying far away.

Let’s Talk Cubbies

It’s no surprise to find both Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks on this list after the Cubs provided historically good defensive support for their pitchers. But Arrieta has suppressed BABIP for years and Hendricks has not only done it before, but has been atop every weak contact/soft contact/contact management leaderboard you can imagine. These guys are not regressing back to league average.

Arrieta’s control wasn’t as bad as his walk rate indicates, so I expect some rebound there, which is one of the issues scaring fantasy owners away. And while no one wants to be the guy to buy Hendricks after a career year, remember that he induces grounders, strikes guys out, and possesses excellent control. He doesn’t even need a low BABIP to be a very good pitcher. I found him to be quite undervalued in LABR Mixed, but even I couldn’t bring myself to draft him. Be brave my fellow fantasy players and be that guy!

I Have No Idea

I included Matt Harvey because obviously he’s fantasy relevant, but the computer systems, nor I, really have a clue what he’s going to give us. Every time I look at my ERA projection I wonder how I could possibly be so optimistic. But I figure that the surgery solved his issues and he should be as good as new now. Besides, a 3.25 ERA would still be far worse than what we had been accustomed to before 2016. Interestingly, I’m projecting nearly identical strikeout and walk rates as Steamer, but the computer is projecting worse marks in all the luck metrics. I don’t know why.

I Thought I was Bearish, But Hey, Steamer is Even More So!

Aaron Sanchez is greatly overvalued this draft season. No surprise, he’s just 24, posted a 3.00 ERA, and a search of his name along with “bowling ball sinker” yields 534 results. People love pitchers who throw bowling ball sinkers. It’s fun! Bu apparently Steamer thinks Sanchez buyers are even crazier than I do. Some of the difference in ERA projections is BABIP, once again, but also Steamer is forecasting a higher HR/9 and lower LOB%, all of which serve to increase the forecast.

With an extreme grounder rate and a lack of pop-ups, his profile looks like one that should result in a high BABIP. And yet, he owns a .251 career mark in 317.1 innings. Now, that’s still a tiny sample with which to draw much of a conclusion about BABIP, but it does tell us something. Plus, the Blue Jays have an excellent defense, both infield and outfield. It’s hard to believe he’ll go from way, way below average throughout his short career to well above average, again, while in front of a fantastic fielding unit.