Pod vs Steamer — HR Downside

Yesterday, I compared my Pod Projected home runs per 600 at-bats to Steamer’s forecast to identify and discuss a slew of hitters my projections are far more bullish on in the dinger department. Today, I’ll flip to the opposite end, those hitters who Pod forecasts for fewer home runs than Steamer, given 600 at-bats.

I swear, I’m super low on Giancarlo Stanton every season it seems. This year is shocking, because I’m projecting a rebound in FB% and a strikeout rate just barely worse than Steamer. So, it has to come down to the HR/FB rate. I’m forecasting a mark just above his career average, and at age 30, I’m not sure why you would project that much better, let alone a mark that results in 12 more homers over the same at-bat total! Among all the projection systems, Steamer is highest, but I’m way, way lower than the rest. I just don’t understand why we should be projecting a 30-year-old to post a significantly higher HR/FB rate than his career mark, which is already super strong at 26.7%.

Like many last season, Joc Pederson set a new career high in HR/FB rate. My strikeout rate forecast is a bit higher than Steamer, but it clearly must be the HR/FB rate we differ on. My xHR/FB rate equation suggests Pederson was quite the lucky dude to post a mark in the mid-20% range, as his home run skills were no better than in 2015 (19.7% HR/FB rate) and worse than 2016 (23.1% rate). Since he doesn’t steal bases and won’t hit for average, where he lands on the HR/FB rate wheel is quite important.

I’m surprised to find Andrew McCutchen’s name here, especially because I was a big fan last year (grrrrr). I’m actually projecting a lower strikeout rate than Steamer and a HR/FB rate that would rank as the fourth highest mark of his career. At age 33, how can more be expected?

Yup, always lower on Bryce Harper as well. My HR/FB rate projection is right in line with his last three seasons and would represent a tie for his second highest. I’m guessing this is an “age and reaching peak power” thing for the projection systems where Steamer figure some massive power spike is imminent. Perhaps, but there’s nothing to suggest that’s actually going to be coming this season. It’s more like blind faith that a star hitter reaching his prime is going to just naturally up his game another notch. That’s just not my projection style.

Hey, Chris Davis has at least one fan!

David Peralta’s HR/FB rate and xHR/FB rate has been up and down, ranging from the low teens for three seasons and the high teens for two. I’m thinking the low teens version is closer to his true talent.

Wowzers, someone still has faith in Miguel Cabrera! Miracles do happen, but his xHR/FB rate has been 10.6% and 11.5% over the last two years, so it’s not like he’s been getting unlucky. His home run power has just disappeared. One obvious problem is that he rarely pulls his fly balls, and he doesn’t have the strength anymore to poke those opposite field flies over the wall.

Steamer doesn’t care whether you spell it Chris or Khris, as long as you pronounce it the same and your last name is Davis, it’s optimistic! I’m projecting a bit of a rebound for Khris Davis, but he has outperformed his xHR/FB rate for five straight seasons now. It’s likely he’s doing something not captured by my equation, but not knowing if that’s true or what it is, you wonder how much longer that outperformance could last. Meanwhile, my projection is still well above his last two season HR/FB rates. He’ll come closer to Steamer if he pushes his FB% back toward his 2018 mark.

Gosh Manny Machado has been so consistent on the HR/FB rate front, it’s surprising to find his name here. Seems like more hope based on age, as Steamer is actually projecting a career high in ISO! They are easily the highest projection system forecast for that metric.

I’m definitely not surprised to find Gleyber Torres‘ name here as I find him massively overvalued in drafts, as people are buying the near 40-homer power. I see a guy who didn’t show anywhere near this kind of power in the minors and who has outperformed his xHR/FB rate, leading to my expectation of some regression.

Another young star in Eloy Jimenez is projected worse by me. He also significantly outperformed his xHR/FB rate and all his minor league marks. When I see that, I proceed with caution. First, I figure at the very least he’ll drop back close to his xHR/FB rate, then I add in his lack of a track record, which makes it more difficult to get a sense of his true talent level. It typically leads to a more conservative projection, which you see here.

Shockingly, Daniel Murphy didn’t enjoy any Coors Field power bump. In fact, his HR/FB rate and ISO were far worse at home than in away parks! That’s hard to do when calling Coors home. Murphy’s xHR/FB rate hasn’t touched double digits since 2017, but since he has outperformed the last three seasons, you would have no idea. I’m basically projecting the same HR/FB rate, but that still represents quite the jump from his expected marks. Obviously, Statcast doesn’t utilize my xHR/FB rates and is just assuming he’ll get a delayed home park boost.

What to do about a 32-year-old who dealt with back issues all season and saw his xHR/FB rate and actual HR/FB rate tumble from career highs the previous two years? You don’t project a rebound for J.D. Martinez is what you do. I’m actually a bit surprised the gap between Pod and Steamer isn’t larger, as the computer is unaware of injury information. There’s a wide variance here though, as good health could obviously push him back into the mid-to-high 20% HR/FB rate range.