Pod vs Steamer — ERA Downside

Yesterday, I transitioned my Pod Projections vs Steamer projections series to the pitching side. I compared our ERA forecasts and discussed 11 pitchers with upside in the metric. Today, it’s time to check on a smattering of hurlers I’m projecting for a worse ERA than Steamer.

Who would have thunk that two Padres starting pitchers would appear at the top? Bryan Mitchell was acquired from the Yankees during the offseason and apparently already has a rotation spot locked up. Despite owning an average four-seam fastball velocity of 96.2 mph over his career, he sports just a 14.3% strikeout rate and ghastly 4.94 ERA. That’s because his fastball doesn’t miss many bats and both his curve ball and cutter have been awful at generating whiffs as well. Steamer is positively ecstatic about his move to the National League and that fastball velocity is undoubtedly helped to drive that 19.5% strikeout rate projection. He’s obviously in a great situation to succeed, but his pitch results so far suggest his stuff needs major improvement.

Steamer figures CLayton Richard will hold onto most of his strikeout rate gains, even though that mark represented his highest since 2010. At age 34, it seems like a bad bet to expect close to that mark again. He did throw his curve/slider more often, which makes sense since it’s been his most whiff-inducing pitch.

Projecting rookies are always a crapshoot, so the Walker Buehler projection is a much less educated guess than if he were a veteran. Steamer is projecting him to increase his strikeout rate from his small sample Dodgers debut, but both his curve and slider were terrible, so you have to put some faith in those minor league rates. However, he somehow managed a 34% strikeout rate at Triple-A, despite posting a SwStk% of 11%. While that’s certainly above average, it in no way justifies a strikeout rate above 30%. That said, this is an exciting skill set, as he pairs a flaming fastball with high ground ball rate. Strikeout pitchers who also induce grounders are a rarity.

Jose Quintana is easy to explain, as he appeared atop my strikeout rate decliner list. Steamer’s strikeout rate projection is nearly 2% higher than mine, but it appears he was wholly undeserving of his actual 2017 mark to base any forecast on. I still acknowledge the full season in the NL, which is why my forecast still represents his second highest career mark, nearly a percentage point higher than his previous second high mark.

If rookies are a crapshoot, how about a recent rookie returning from Tommy John surgery?! That’s the situation Alex Reyes finds himself in and projecting him is impossible to do with any sort of confidence. I’m far below Steamer’s strikeout rate projection, as the thing is, the computer is unaware that Reyes is returning from major elbow surgery. So it’s projecting almost the same as what he posted in his rookie campaign. While some pitchers do fully recover and their skills return, many do not. Weighing all the possibilities, you have to assume a decreased strikeout rate from his debut and minor league levels.