Players ottoneu Loved (and Hated): SP Edition

After weeks of reviewing hitters, position by position by position, it is time for me to offer up my response to Zach Sanders’s rankings of starting pitchers.

As with Zach’s rankings, we are limiting ourselves to pitchers with more than 140 IP this year, giving us a list of 101 starting pitchers, including a few whose values varied greatly between 5×5 and linear weights points leagues. One slight change from hitters to pitchers – because an IP is so valuable in linear weights (almost every team should be using up all 1500 IP over the season in an ottoneu league), we are going to rank pitchers based on Points/IP, not based on total points.

ottoneu’s True Loves
Five SP ranked at least 30 spots higher in linear weights than they did in 5×5 and, not surprisingly, four of ottoneu’s favorite pitchers (relatively speaking) are players who posted very low HR/9. Josh Johnson (61st in 5×5, 23rd in linear weights), Chad Billingsley (58th, 26th), and Edinson Volquez (75th, 45th) all posted HR/9 below .7 and Kevin Millwood (87th, 57th) was not far behind (.73). And linear weights will absolutely punish a pitcher who gives up too many HR. Here’s an example of a bad inning from two different pitchers:

Pitcher A: 1 IP, 1 K, 4 BB, 3 ER, 0 H, 0 HR
Pitcher B: 1 IP, 1 K, 0 BB, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 HR

In 5×5, you clearly prefer the results from Pitcher B (WHIP of 1, ERA of 9) compared to Pitcher A (WHIP of 4, ERA of 27). But in linear weights? The four walks hurt, but the HR allowed by Pitcher B is a killer. Total points for A = -2.6; total points for B = -5.5.

All three of these guys had their own issues in 2012, including low win totals (for all four), high walk rates (for Volquez and Millwood), average-to-below average K/9 (for Johnson, Billingsley and Millwood), and more, but simply by keeping the ball in the yard, they kept their ottoneu values relatively high.

The fifth riser for ottoneu was Francisco Liriano (92nd, 59th) and his increased value seems to have more to do with bad luck in 5×5 than anything he did right in linear weights. His high K/9 (9.59) certainly helped, but his BB/9 (5.00) and HR/9 (1.09) did him no favors. Instead, he appeared near the very bottom of Sanders’s list and near the middle of mine largely due to a terrible LOB%. His 66.5% LOB% was the fourth lowest on the list and all those extra runners coming around to score beat up his ERA to the point that it was a full run higher than his FIP (5.34 vs. 4.34). Linear weights will always value a pitcher closer to his FIP than his ERA. In fact, of the 15 pitchers with an FIP at least half a run better than their ERA, all 15 posted higher rankings in ottoneu than 5×5.

ottoneu’s Worst Enemies
So who did ottoneu not love? For starters, guys who can’t get Ks. Of the four pitchers with rankings at least 30 spots worse in ottoneu than 5×5, three had K/9 below 6.5. Jason Vargas (33rd, 81st), Jeremy Hellickson (42nd, 75th), and Clayton Richard (57th, 89th) all put up double digit wins, all maintain sub-4.00 ERA, but all posted unimpressive strike out numbers. Even with low HR/9 numbers (which none of these three had), the lack of strike outs severely limits upside in pitchers. Another A vs. B, this time over a season.

If you had two pitchers throwing the same number of innings with all the same stats EXCEPT for one pitcher with a K/9 of 8 and the other with a K/9 of 7, over the course of 180 innings, the former will be worth 40 more points than the latter. Instead, if you compare Richard’s 4.4 K/9 to Liriano’s 9.59, you are talking about Liriano having a more-than-one-point-per-IP advantage, assuming all the other numbers are the same. That is an awfully big gap to overcome.

The fourth pitcher ottoneu disliked is a reminder of an issue mentioned earlier — ottoneu despises HR-prone pitching. Phil Hughes (47th, 85th) post a 1.65 HR/9, outdone only by Ervin Santana’s 1.97 (Santana, by the way, ranked 83rd in 5×5 and, despite having no room to fall, still fell to 97th in ottoneu). His other numbers weren’t terrible, including 7.76 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, and a relatively low BABIP (.285), all of which are things ottoneu should reward. But if you are giving up a HR every time out, not much else matters. A pitcher who goes out and strikes out the side but gives up a HR in the middle has just LOST points for your team (7.4 for the innings + 6 for the Ks – 14.9 for the HR leaves you with -1.5 total). A pitcher who strikes out the side but in the middle walks four players has done BETTER for you (7.4 for the inning + 6 for the Ks – 12 for the BBs leaves you with 1.4).

ON Rank	Sanders Rank	Diff	Name	Pts	IP	Pts/IP
1	6	5	Gio Gonzalez	1146	199.1	5.76
2	3	1	Clayton Kershaw	1297	227.2	5.71
3	16	13	Stephen Strasburg	877	159.1	5.51
4	2	-2	Justin Verlander	1312	238.1	5.51
5	4	-1	David Price	1133	211	5.37
6	10	4	Felix Hernandez	1243	232	5.36
7	1	-6	R.A. Dickey	1202	232.2	5.18
8	28	20	Yu Darvish	981	191.1	5.13
9	5	-4	Matt Cain	1109	219.1	5.06
10	12	2	Chris Sale	966	191	5.06
18	24	6	Wade Miley	934	186	5.02
11	20	9	Zack Greinke	1060	212.1	5.00
12	8	-4	Cole Hamels	1070	215.1	4.97
13	19	6	Cliff Lee	1033	211	4.90
14	36	22	Adam Wainwright	967	198.2	4.88
15	14	-1	CC Sabathia	969	200	4.85
16	23	7	Max Scherzer	904	187.2	4.83
17	9	-8	Johnny Cueto	1045	217	4.82
28	32	4	Lance Lynn	811	169	4.80
19	7	-12	Jered Weaver	902	188.2	4.79
20	13	-7	Madison Bumgarner	995	208.1	4.78
21	41	20	Jarrod Parker	855	181.1	4.72
22	15	-7	James Shields	1072	227.2	4.72
23	61	38	Josh Johnson	897	191.1	4.69
24	11	-13	Kyle Lohse	989	211	4.69
25	43	18	Jeff Samardzija	815	174.2	4.68
26	58	32	Chad Billingsley	690	149.2	4.62
27	39	12	Doug Fister	745	161.2	4.62
29	25	-4	A.J. Burnett	930	202.1	4.60
30	17	-13	Jake Peavy	1003	219	4.58
31	22	-9	Jordan Zimmermann	893	195.2	4.57
32	31	-1	Ryan Dempster	788	173	4.55
47	62	15	Ross Detwiler	685	151	4.54
33	29	-4	Ryan Vogelsong	852	189.2	4.50
34	21	-13	Mat Latos	940	209.1	4.50
35	26	-9	Jon Niese	835	190.1	4.39
36	56	20	Anibal Sanchez	854	195.2	4.38
37	49	12	Edwin Jackson	823	189.2	4.35
38	38		Tim Hudson	773	179	4.32
39	60	21	Matt Moore	764	177.1	4.31
40	48	8	Trevor Cahill	862	200	4.31
41	67	26	Lucas Harrell	832	193.2	4.31
42	64	22	Roy Halladay	672	156.1	4.30
43	30	-13	Yovani Gallardo	874	204	4.28
44	18	-26	Hiroki Kuroda	939	219.2	4.28
45	75	30	Edinson Volquez	766	182.2	4.20
46	54	8	C.J. Wilson	846	202.1	4.19
48	37	-11	Chris Capuano	826	198.1	4.17
68	65	-3	Kyle Kendrick	603	145.2	4.15
49	51	2	James McDonald	708	171	4.14
50	40	-10	Paul Maholm	778	188	4.14
52	59	7	Wandy Rodriguez	828	203.2	4.07
59	92	33	Francisco Liriano	606	149.1	4.06
51	34	-17	Homer Bailey	840	208	4.04
53	44	-9	Mike Minor	720	179.1	4.02
80	85	5	Luis Mendoza	584	146	4.00
54	53	-1	Bartolo Colon	608	152.1	4.00
55	72	17	Aaron Harang	715	179.2	3.99
56	27	-29	Matt Harrison	846	213.1	3.97
57	87	30	Kevin Millwood	632	161	3.93
60	68	8	Joe Blanton	740	190.1	3.89
58	74	16	Jake Westbrook	677	174.2	3.89
61	35	-26	Mark Buehrle	782	202.1	3.87
62	55	-7	Scott Diamond	668	173	3.86
63	91	28	Tim Lincecum	716	186	3.85
64	45	-19	Ian Kennedy	801	208.1	3.85
65	50	-15	Tommy Milone	727	190	3.83
66	46	-20	Bronson Arroyo	770	202	3.81
67	81	14	Bud Norris	640	168.1	3.81
69	80	11	Ricky Nolasco	721	191	3.77
70	84	14	Josh Beckett	641	170.1	3.77
71	88	17	Jon Lester	765	205.1	3.73
72	93	21	Justin Masterson	768	206.1	3.73
82	71	-11	Kevin Correia	593	160.2	3.70
73	52	-21	Wei-Yin Chen	704	192.2	3.66
74	82	8	Felix Doubront	581	161	3.61
75	42	-33	Jeremy Hellickson	638	177	3.60
76	76		Joe Saunders	625	174.2	3.59
77	70	-7	Gavin Floyd	598	168	3.56
78	66	-12	Dan Haren	627	176.2	3.56
79	69	-10	Travis Wood	553	156	3.54
83	63	-20	Derek Holland	606	171.2	3.54
81	33	-48	Jason Vargas	761	217.1	3.51
84	73	-11	Barry Zito	636	184.1	3.45
85	47	-38	Phil Hughes	648	191.1	3.39
86	79	-7	Clay Buchholz	636	189.1	3.36
87	96	9	Rick Porcello	583	176.1	3.31
88	78	-10	Tommy Hanson	575	174.2	3.30
89	57	-32	Clayton Richard	711	218.2	3.26
90	86	-4	Mike Leake	582	179	3.25
91	95	4	Jordan Lyles	442	141.1	3.13
92	98	6	Luke Hochevar	578	185.1	3.12
93	89	-4	Ivan Nova	518	170.1	3.05
94	90	-4	Bruce Chen	565	191.2	2.96
95	77	-18	Blake Beavan	438	152.1	2.88
100	94	-6	Jeremy Guthrie	461	169.1	2.73
96	99	3	Ubaldo Jimenez	479	176.2	2.72
99	100	1	Randy Wolf	402	149.1	2.70
97	83	-14	Ervin Santana	465	178	2.61
98	101	3	Ricky Romero	469	181	2.59
101	97	-4	Henderson Alvarez	453	187.1	2.42