Players ottoneu Loved (and Hated): OF Edition

After a brief Holiday respite, Zach Sanders continued his end-of-season positional rankings by posting his OF rankings on Monday. With far more players than at any other position (103 players qualified for the OF rankings) the differences between where a player falls in 5×5 vs. linear weights can be more drastic.

In fact, instead of talking a few spots here or there, there were six players who “fell” at least 20 spots when we shifted to linear weights, and six who “rose” at least 20. We’ll see a couple old friends on this list and once again OBP and SB go a long way towards explaining the differences.

ottoneu’s True Loves
Ben Zobrist and Martin Prado, how does ottoneu love thee? Let me count the ways. You both appeared more than a month ago when we talked 2B, and both made another appearance two weeks later when we flipped to the other side of the MI. In the week in between, ottoneu could not contain it’s adoration, and Prado made the list at the hot corner, as well.

Oh, but ottoneu is not done with you two yet. Sitting as solid middle-of-the-pack options in 5×5, in the land of linear weights, Zobrist ranked 10th (32nd in 5×5) and Prado 17th (39th in 5×5). Those other three links provide the details on why these two multi-talented players are oh-so-valuable in ottoneu, but there is one other quick point to make. Both finished near the top in total PA (Prado was 5th, Zobrist 14th), and on a per PA basis, they ranked 48th (Prado) and 24th (Zobrist). Clearly these two guys took advantage of health and playing time, and that provided an awful lot of value in ottoneu leagues.

We have another repeat recipient of ottoneu’s love in this list, as well – Nick Swisher made a leap at 1B and climbed from 42nd in Sanders’s rankings to 20th in ottoneu. The reasons are mostly the same ones covered in the 1B article.

That leaves us with three new crushes for linear weights leagues. Yonder Alonso and David DeJesus bordered on irrelevance in 5×5 leagues, ranking 86th and 76th, respectively, but moved well within the ranks of useful players in ottoneu, where they ranked 48th and 53rd. Both, however, may be the beneficiaries of playing time as much as scoring systems. Alonso posted a .348 OBP and DeJesus barely bested him at .350. Neither relied heavily on 5×5 counting stats (DeJesus was a bit more successful in SB with 10 and R with 76, and Alonso bested him with 62 RBI, but neither player was particularly valuable in any of those stats). So some small increase was to be expected. And on a per PA basis, that is what you got, with Alonso finishing 77th and DeJesus 74th. Add the 29th most PA for Alonso and the 45th most for DeJesus, and you will accentuate that improvement. Basically, these are not players who were anchoring your OF but, as their ranks suggest, you could have slotted them in as a 5th, maybe even a 4th, OF every single day, known just what you were going to get, and been content with the results.

The other riser in linear weights rose to much higher heights. Alex Gordon followed up his breakout 2011 with an almost-as-good 2012, but still finished just 36th in the 5×5 rankings. Not bad, but likely disappointing to many fantasy players. Not anyone using linear weights, though. Gordon slotted in 7th in points, with a total of 957. And he did this by being solid across the board – a .294/.368/.455 line – while driving huge numbers of in-the-park extra-base-hits (a position-leading 51 doubles and five triples to boot!) which help an awful lot in linear weights but get ignored in 5×5. Gordon is, in many ways, the ideal example of an ottoneu true love – lots of doubles, little reliance on teammates, a ton of PA. If you are in a league with owners not accustomed to linear weights, these are the types of players you want to target in auctions and drafts.

ottoneu’s Worst Enemies
Recipe for a player ottoneu hates:
1 cup of stolen bases (30+ preferred)
1 tbsp of too few PA (ideally under 500)
1 tbsp lack of power (single-digit HR ideal, will accept anything under 20)
A dash of free-swinging (BB% under 6%)
A touch of out-creation (OBP .330 and below)

Take that mix and you are very likely to end up with the six outfields ottoneu really did not like. Rajai Davis (49th in 5×5, 80th in linear weights), Ben Revere (51, 74), Carlos Gomez (37, 71), Juan Pierre (58, 84), B.J. Upton (15, 37) and Drew Stubbs (69, 92) all cracked the 30 SB plateau and all fell at least 20 spots between the two systems. For most of these guys, the reasons are clear – Davis, Revere, and Pierre are one-trick ponies (at least offensively) who are not great at reaching base, hitting for power, or anything other than running really fast, really often. Stubbs has a bit more pop, but takes “not great at reaching base” part to a new high (low?).

Gomez and Upton are a the more interesting cases. Gomez suffered due to a lack of playing time. On a per PA basis, he would have ranked 42nd – not far from his ranking of 37th in 5×5. His .305 OBP is not ideal, and he will need to bring up his 4.4% BB% to really jump in the ottoneu rankings, but he was not purely a speed play. He hit 19 HR and had 23 other extra-base hits in his 452 PA. He was only caught stealing 6 times, so his 37 steals brought in real value (about the same as 4 HR). Gomez will be over-valued by anyone who thinks in 5×5 terms, but will be undervalued if your opposition sees him as base-stealer and little more.

Upton, in the meantime, looks much worse on a per PA basis, ranking 61st. He stole six fewer bases than Gomez and was caught the same number of times – ottoneu does not like that lack of efficiency. In 181 extra PA, Upton had nine more HR but also had only 9 more other extra-base hits (and one less triple). Like Gomez, Upton’s biggest issue is just making outs, which linear weights leagues punish harshly. A sub-.300 OBP is not going to fly in any format, but it is much easier to hide in 5×5 than linear weights.

A few final notes:
– Brandon Moss (4th), Justin Ruggiano (8th), Carlos Quentin (17th) and Jonny Gomes (18th) all cracked the top 20 per PA without accruing the PA needed to make the list – but all deserve some recognition for their ottoneu seasons.
– Mike Trout and Ryan Braun were numbers 1 and 2, respectively, in Sanders’s rankings. They flip-flopped for ottoneu and stayed Braun-Trout on a per PA basis. These two are clearly head and shoulders above the rest.
– Giancarlo Stanton was 3rd, per PA, in ottoneu. His 5×5 numbers will take a hit since, you know, the Marlins traded everyone (unless he gets traded), but that should not be a problem in linear weights.
– Michael Bourn was 27th in ottoneu, after being 16th in 5×5. But on a per PA basis? 84th.

ON Rank	Sanders Rank	Diff	Name	Pts	PA	Pro-Rated to 650 PA
1	2	1	Ryan Braun	1238	677	1188.6
2	1	-1	Mike Trout	1164	639	1184.0
3	3		Andrew McCutchen	1133	673	1094.3
4	4		Josh Hamilton	1037	636	1059.8
5	9	4	Matt Holliday	1010	688	954.2
6	6		Adam Jones	976	697	910.2
7	36	29	Alex Gordon	957	721	862.8
8	5	-3	Alex Rios	930	640	944.5
9	12	3	Josh Willingham	929	615	981.9
10	32	22	Ben Zobrist	928	668	903.0
11	27	16	Shin-Soo Choo	916	686	867.9
12	7	-5	Curtis Granderson	907	684	861.9
13	13		Jay Bruce	886	633	909.8
14	8	-6	Carlos Gonzalez	884	579	992.4
15	26	11	Adrian Gonzalez	880	684	836.3
16	14	-2	Giancarlo Stanton	878	501	1139.1
17	39	22	Martin Prado	876	690	825.2
18.5	10	-8.5	Jason Heyward	870	651	868.7
18.5	20	1.5	Corey Hart	870	622	909.2
20	11	-9	Carlos Beltran	867	619	910.4
21	19	-2	Austin Jackson	866	617	912.3
22	42	20	Nick Swisher	849	624	884.4
23	38	15	Adam Dunn	837	649	838.3
24	22	-2	Alfonso Soriano	829	615	876.2
25.5	28	2.5	Angel Pagan	820	659	808.8
25.5	29	3.5	Josh Reddick	820	673	792.0
27	16	-11	Michael Bourn	813	703	751.7
28	41	13	Andre Ethier	802	618	843.5
29	24	-5	Bryce Harper	798	597	868.8
30	23	-7	Yoenis Cespedes	795	540	956.9
31	31		Nelson Cruz	785	642	794.8
32	21	-11	Melky Cabrera	783	501	1015.9
33	17	-16	Justin Upton	782	628	809.4
34.5	18	-16.5	Torii Hunter	779	584	867.0
34.5	45	10.5	Jason Kubel	779	571	886.8
36	30	-6	Hunter Pence	773	688	730.3
37.5	15	-22.5	B.J. Upton	761	633	781.4
37.5	25	-12.5	Allen Craig	761	514	962.4
39	34	-5	Mark Trumbo	760	586	843.0
40	33	-7	Chris Davis	759	562	877.8
41	54	13	Dexter Fowler	758	530	929.6
42	40	-2	Norichika Aoki	747	588	825.8
43	52	9	David Murphy	743	521	927.0
44	44		Shane Victorino	718	666	700.8
45	46	1	Garrett Jones	708	515	893.6
46	35	-11	Matt Kemp	707	449	1023.5
47	57	10	Ryan Ludwick	697	472	959.9
48	86	38	Yonder Alonso	689	619	723.5
49	47	-2	Alejandro De Aza	686	585	762.2
50	65	15	Michael Brantley	682	609	727.9
51	55	4	Cody Ross	677	528	833.4
52	43	-9	Ichiro Suzuki	675	663	661.8
53	76	23	David DeJesus	651	582	727.1
54	61	7	Kendrys Morales	645	522	803.2
55.5	53	-2.5	Tyler Colvin	642	452	923.2
55.5	67	11.5	Ryan Doumit	642	528	790.3
57	56	-1	Michael Saunders	639	553	751.1
58	75	17	Nick Markakis	638	471	880.5
59.5	71	11.5	Denard Span	629	568	719.8
59.5	62	2.5	Howie Kendrick	629	594	688.3
61	68	7	Todd Frazier	627	465	876.5
62	48	-14	Coco Crisp	620	508	793.3
63.5	50	-13.5	Desmond Jennings	613	563	707.7
63.5	79	15.5	Carlos Lee	613	615	647.9
65	73	8	Delmon Young	611	608	653.2
66.5	64	-2.5	Colby Rasmus	607	625	631.3
66.5	59	-7.5	Dayan Viciedo	607	543	726.6
68	63	-5	Jose Bautista	603	399	982.3
69	60	-9	Jon Jay	601	502	778.2
70	80	10	Brandon Belt	588	472	809.7
71	37	-34	Carlos Gomez	584	452	839.8
72	66	-6	Will Venable	571	470	789.7
73	83	10	Matt Joyce	550	462	773.8
74	51	-23	Ben Revere	548	553	644.1
75	70	-5	Michael Morse	536	430	810.2
76	82	6	Trevor Plouffe	535	465	747.8
77	89	12	Jeff Francoeur	532	603	573.5
78	74	-4	Scott Hairston	525	398	857.4
79	72	-7	Cameron Maybin	517	561	599.0
80	49	-31	Rajai Davis	515	487	687.4
81	77	-4	Michael Cuddyer	514	394	848.0
82.5	84	1.5	Raul Ibanez	505	425	772.4
82.5	91	8.5	Seth Smith	505	441	744.3
84.5	58	-26.5	Juan Pierre	488	439	722.6
84.5	94	9.5	Lucas Duda	488	459	691.1
86	78	-8	Chris Denorfia	485	382	825.3
87	93	6	John Mayberry	475	479	644.6
88	92	4	Bryan LaHair	472	380	807.4
89	81	-8	Gerardo Parra	455	430	687.8
90	85	-5	Gregor Blanco	452	453	648.6
91	90	-1	Brennan Boesch	447	503	577.6
92	69	-23	Drew Stubbs	445	544	531.7
93	87	-6	Mitch Moreland	441	357	802.9
94	88	-6	Justin Maxwell	423	352	781.1
95	95		Wilson Betemit	419	376	724.3
96	97	1	Chris Young	417	363	746.7
97	98	1	J.D. Martinez	416	439	615.9
98	100	2	Andres Torres	401	434	600.6
99	96	-3	Chris Heisey	387	375	670.8
100	101	1	Steve Lombardozzi	372	416	581.3
101	103	2	Ty Wigginton	354	360	639.2
102	99	-3	Alex Presley	345	370	606.1
103	104	1	Brian Bogusevic	313	404	503.6
104	105	1	Jose Tabata	311	374	540.5
105	102	-3	Jordan Schafer	278	360	501.9