Player Value Changes Based On Present Season Performance

Yes. We’re going to look at two games worth of data to find value changes for the remainder of draft season. Since you’re savvy FanGraphs readers, you know that nobody actually changed in value based on two games. Well, there’s one notable exception. We’ll get to him.

Still, there’s real baseball, and I’ll be damned if we don’t try to use it. Let’s break this into a few buckets.

Retroactive Stats Leagues

Some leagues drafting between now and the actual start of the season will allow you to count the Japan Series stats. Which means certain players now have value! FanTrax ADP is listed in parentheses.

Tim Beckham (443): 4 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, .714 AVG

Beckham, previously undraftable, is now worth a last round pick in all formats. You will immediately replace him.

Ryon Healy (373): 3 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, .333 AVG

Healy is a mid-to-deep league corner infielder. His status in those formats is unchanged. He’s worth your last dollar or a last round pick in shallower leagues. Like Beckham, you’ll immediately replace him.

Domingo Santana (291): 1 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, .200 AVG

Santana was already a late-round sleeper. Expect him to now become the woke sort of sleeper. Whereas he was previously a $1 auction target, you can probably justify $3 now. This isn’t because of his grand slam or even because he stole a bag. Rather, it’s a recognition that Santana is better than a $1 talent and was only dirt cheap because everybody was feeling burned from last year.

In very shallow leagues, i.e. 10-team and smaller, Santana can be immediately replaced.

Lou Trivino (467): 2 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 4 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP

Sure, why not bank a couple shiny innings for a last round pick or $1? You can continue to ride Trivino for ratio help or immediately move on to bigger fish.

J.B. Wendelken (ND): 2 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 2 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP

Ditto the Trivino notes except you’re definitely moving on.

Marco Gonzales (231): 6 IP, 1 W, 0 SV, 4 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

It wasn’t the sexiest outing, but guaranteed wins are hard to find. This shouldn’t affect his ADP or auction value, although I might pay an extra dollar to secure a win. He’s also temporarily on pace for 33 starts. Which probably doesn’t matter.

Zac Rosscup (ND): 1 IP, 1 W, 0 SV, 3 K, 0.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP

Although it’s not a great start for your WHIP, a free win is more than worth digging out of a very small hole. And three strikeouts!

Legitimate Upgrades

Here are some guys whose ADP should truly improve based on this series.

Hunter Strickland (427): 2 IP, 0 W, 2 SV, 3 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP

Previously a late-round speculative saves target, Strickland now appears to definitely be the Mariners closer. And adding a couple flawless saves isn’t a bad way to start the year. Andrew Miller and Jordan Hicks are going around pick 240. I think that’s a more appropriate place for Strickland. For what it’s worth, I was already seeing him consistently drafted in the mid-200s so this is more of a +20 jump in ADP, not the +200 implied by FanTrax.

Chad Pinder (479): 1 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .300 AVG

This one is admittedly a stretch. Pinder accrued 10 plate appearances over the series. As a super utility guy who will mostly feature in a crowded left field, I figured he wouldn’t get much action this year. If he does play more regularly, he has potential for an over-20 home run pace. His ottoneu FGpts projection is roughly average for an outfielder.

He’s still nothing more than a very deep league flier. I’m cautiously upgrading from “nah” to “well, the alternatives are flawed too.”

Dee Gordon (114): 2 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, .300 AVG

He stole a base, +15 ADP!

Seriously though, it’s nice to see Gordon off and running after an injury last season prevented him from doing so at his normal rate. Vintage Gordon was a regular top 30 to 40 performer, and we’re only one season removed from that level of success.

That said, I hate managing around one category SB guys. Gordon seems likely to lose his top of the lineup role to Mallex Smith once the speedy outfielder is healthy again.

The Biggest Loser

Matt Olson (93): 1 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .200 AVG

Olson injured his hand via a foul ball. He’s feeling pain with gripping. The description of the injury is ominous and may indicate serious damage. For now, his ADP should only slide about 10-15 picks just in case we’re overreacting. Hand injuries often take upwards of a month to heal after which Olson would need to go on a potentially lengthy rehab assignment.

Presently, I’m grading this as an expected loss of about 15 days which should barely affect his ADP (that aforementioned 10 to 15 picks). However, we’re probably looking at either zero or 40 days missed with downside for a longer duration on the injured list. And that definitely crushes his ADP.

We hoped you liked reading Player Value Changes Based On Present Season Performance by Brad Johnson!

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Buhners Rocket Arm
Buhners Rocket Arm

Lame news for Matt Olson. Had built my upcoming draft strategy around waiting for him as my 1B, but now I may end up grabbing one of the early stars instead.