Player Value Changes Based On Present Season Performance
Yes. We’re going to look at two games worth of data to find value changes for the remainder of draft season. Since you’re savvy FanGraphs readers, you know that nobody actually changed in value based on two games. Well, there’s one notable exception. We’ll get to him.
Still, there’s real baseball, and I’ll be damned if we don’t try to use it. Let’s break this into a few buckets.
Retroactive Stats Leagues
Some leagues drafting between now and the actual start of the season will allow you to count the Japan Series stats. Which means certain players now have value! FanTrax ADP is listed in parentheses.
Tim Beckham (443): 4 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, .714 AVG
Beckham, previously undraftable, is now worth a last round pick in all formats. You will immediately replace him.
Ryon Healy (373): 3 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, .333 AVG
Healy is a mid-to-deep league corner infielder. His status in those formats is unchanged. He’s worth your last dollar or a last round pick in shallower leagues. Like Beckham, you’ll immediately replace him.
Domingo Santana (291): 1 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, .200 AVG
Santana was already a late-round sleeper. Expect him to now become the woke sort of sleeper. Whereas he was previously a $1 auction target, you can probably justify $3 now. This isn’t because of his grand slam or even because he stole a bag. Rather, it’s a recognition that Santana is better than a $1 talent and was only dirt cheap because everybody was feeling burned from last year.
In very shallow leagues, i.e. 10-team and smaller, Santana can be immediately replaced.
Lou Trivino (467): 2 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 4 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP
Sure, why not bank a couple shiny innings for a last round pick or $1? You can continue to ride Trivino for ratio help or immediately move on to bigger fish.
J.B. Wendelken (ND): 2 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 2 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP
Ditto the Trivino notes except you’re definitely moving on.
Marco Gonzales (231): 6 IP, 1 W, 0 SV, 4 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
It wasn’t the sexiest outing, but guaranteed wins are hard to find. This shouldn’t affect his ADP or auction value, although I might pay an extra dollar to secure a win. He’s also temporarily on pace for 33 starts. Which probably doesn’t matter.
Zac Rosscup (ND): 1 IP, 1 W, 0 SV, 3 K, 0.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP
Although it’s not a great start for your WHIP, a free win is more than worth digging out of a very small hole. And three strikeouts!
Legitimate Upgrades
Here are some guys whose ADP should truly improve based on this series.
Hunter Strickland (427): 2 IP, 0 W, 2 SV, 3 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP
Previously a late-round speculative saves target, Strickland now appears to definitely be the Mariners closer. And adding a couple flawless saves isn’t a bad way to start the year. Andrew Miller and Jordan Hicks are going around pick 240. I think that’s a more appropriate place for Strickland. For what it’s worth, I was already seeing him consistently drafted in the mid-200s so this is more of a +20 jump in ADP, not the +200 implied by FanTrax.
Chad Pinder (479): 1 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .300 AVG
This one is admittedly a stretch. Pinder accrued 10 plate appearances over the series. As a super utility guy who will mostly feature in a crowded left field, I figured he wouldn’t get much action this year. If he does play more regularly, he has potential for an over-20 home run pace. His ottoneu FGpts projection is roughly average for an outfielder.
He’s still nothing more than a very deep league flier. I’m cautiously upgrading from “nah” to “well, the alternatives are flawed too.”
Dee Gordon (114): 2 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, .300 AVG
He stole a base, +15 ADP!
Seriously though, it’s nice to see Gordon off and running after an injury last season prevented him from doing so at his normal rate. Vintage Gordon was a regular top 30 to 40 performer, and we’re only one season removed from that level of success.
That said, I hate managing around one category SB guys. Gordon seems likely to lose his top of the lineup role to Mallex Smith once the speedy outfielder is healthy again.
The Biggest Loser
Matt Olson (93): 1 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .200 AVG
Olson injured his hand via a foul ball. He’s feeling pain with gripping. The description of the injury is ominous and may indicate serious damage. For now, his ADP should only slide about 10-15 picks just in case we’re overreacting. Hand injuries often take upwards of a month to heal after which Olson would need to go on a potentially lengthy rehab assignment.
Presently, I’m grading this as an expected loss of about 15 days which should barely affect his ADP (that aforementioned 10 to 15 picks). However, we’re probably looking at either zero or 40 days missed with downside for a longer duration on the injured list. And that definitely crushes his ADP.
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Lame news for Matt Olson. Had built my upcoming draft strategy around waiting for him as my 1B, but now I may end up grabbing one of the early stars instead.
This is my final two rounds in NFBC
I’m thinking these first and only-so-far two real games makes well-hyped sleeper Ramon Laureano more attainable.
I saw him several times this spring. I’ll say this about him, he’s got the look of a confident player.
Yes! He has that Carlos Gonzalez breakout look, when CarGo really started to emerge in the 2009 playoffs.
You know who really had that look… Orlando Arcia. I can’t find any statistical underpinning to expect a breakout, but he sure looked comfortable.
I was trying to calculate exactly how valuable Beckhams stats are and when I should draft him in my nfbc mains this weekend (i.e if I want someone other waiver wire guy for MI) and I came across something I found interesting. He had a 47 wRC+ in the 1st half last year, and a 105 in the 2nd half (191 ISO !!!). 2hrs in the first half, 10 in 2nd half (less at bats). He went from a 27.7% k rate to a 22.7% k rate. He increased his walk rate. I went from trying to figure out where I want him, to actually just wanting him. I mean, it all could be for not. This is likely nothing, just variance. I will probably drop him. But I watched those at bats, it was easy power pullside, easy power oppo as well.
But what do you have to lose? When you look deep down in your soul how much more do you really like the guys around him in adp like Munoz or Wong or both Crawford(s) or Zobrist? Why not just take the guy with a current (counting) ,714 batting average and 2.063 ops? Who cares if you drop him? Why not just take the counting stats?
One of the hardest things is to figure out is how to properly value players in season that have major changes in performance and/or injury.
I think seeing the A’s pitch Treinen for two innings in a non-save situation demonstrates they will continue to ride him hard, which gives him more value.
Not sure that’s the conclusion I’d draw. I think it makes Soria and Trivino more valuable since they’ll soak up a few spare saves. Treinen’s injury risk is also elevated by the workload.
those guys lose value if you’re drafting them now since you’re missing out on 1.2% of their season.