Pitchers to Pick Up

We decided to push the waiver wire pod this weekend for the holiday, but I wanted to write up a little something about pitchers to keep an eye on tonight.

TWO-START ARMS

Shallow:

• Matt Moore – v. WAS, at PHI
• Jeremy Hellickson – at MIA, v. SF
• Jordan Montgomery – at BAL, at TOR
• Chris Tillman – v. NYY, v. BOS

Moore has been rounding into form a bit over his last four starts with a 3.28 ERA and 21 Ks in 24.7 IP, but he does have a 1.49 WHIP and I might be careful with that Washington start. Hellickson has a 1.7 K:BB and 1.6 HR/9 so I just can’t see starting him anywhere right now. I like Montgomery, but he’s been markedly worse on the road with a 16% K rate and 1.3 K:BB, compared to 27% and 3.4 at home. I’d probably start Tillman if I have him, but I’m not sure I’d seek him out on a waiver wire.

Deep:

• Tyler Anderson – v. SEA, at SD
• Ariel Miranda – at COL, v. TB
• Matt Garza – at NYM, v. LAD
• Daniel Norris – at KC, v. CWS
• Tyler Chatwood – v. SEA, at SD
• Zach Davies – at NYM, v. LAD

A trip to San Diego makes both Rockies arms very intriguing, especially Anderson as the Mariners have really struggled against lefties this year (66 wRC+). Meanwhile, I can’t trust Miranda and his career 1.8 HR/9 in Colorado. If I can pick individual starts, then I’d come back to Miranda for his outing against TB later in the week.

Garza allowed 8 ER in his first five starts before a 6 ER shellacking by the Jays, but he still fanned five in 5.3 innings during that game. We haven’t really considered Garza for a couple years, but he’s at least on the radar in deep leagues now and I could see starting him in this two-step. Davies has a 3.58 ERA over his last six, but a 1.47 WHIP and 1.9 HR/9 so be careful. I still love Norris’s talent, but the inconsistency is maddening. His Game Scores over the last six: 30, 62, 32, 49, 41, and 62. The White Sox are tough on lefties, but I’m using Norris.

Super-Deep:

• Brad Peacock – at MIN, at TEX
• Erasmo Ramirez – at TEX, at SEA
• Ricky Nolasco – v. ATL, v. MIN
• Martin Perez – v. TB, v. HOU
• Jason Hammel – v. DET, v. CLE
• Robert Gsellman – v. MIL, v. PIT
• Edinson Volquez – v. PHI, v. ARI
• Sam Gaviglio – at COL, v. TB

Peacock has only made one start, but he’s pitched very well in relief with a 0.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 37% K rate in 20.7 innings. His velo is up at 92.7 mph and his 15% SwStr rate is nearly double his previous high (8%). Nolasco has allowed multiple home runs in seven of his 10 starts which has kept him from taking full advantage 3.2 K:BB rate in 57.7 innings. The Twins and Braves have been below average in homers against righties, so I’d give him a go in applicable leagues. Only two of the multi-homer games have occurred at home.

I’d also consider Ramirez and Perez, but I’m passing on the rest of the group. Hammel has been a home run machine and hasn’t been any better at home so I can’t use him against these two offenses. I’m all set on Gsellman and neither Volquez nor Gaviglio is worth a second look.

ONE-START ARMS

These guys don’t have the two-start appeal, but you might consider scooping them anyway.

Hold: guys you’d look at for this week and beyond in many formats

• Jose Berrios – His availability is drying up across all formats, but obviously I’m prioritizing him where I can get him. I wrote him up the other day.
• Joe Ross – Returned from the DL with a gem against Seattle, but sputtered against SD on Sunday. I’m still scooping in any format.
• Dan Straily – Did you know his 5.7 H/9 leads the NL? He has allowed more than 3 ER just twice all year. He’s not going deep into games (6+ IP just twice), but excelling as a five-and-dive arm.
• Derek Holland – We’re now 10 starts into the Holland Renaissance and it’s hard to ignore what he’s doing. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any start and he’s fanned at least five in four of the five last, including a season-high eight Detroit Tigers yesterday afternoon.
• JC Ramirez – Not missing bats like we saw in April, but he doesn’t walk guys, goes 6+ regularly, and keeps getting outs. Two bad innings v. DET are his only blemishes over a seven-start stretch during which he has a 2.35 ERA.

Start-to-Start: guys you might use this week, but then play it by ear beyond that

• Mike Clevinger – Brilliant in HOU then meh v. KC … that’s just kinda how young arms go, unfortunately. That said, I think the talent is there and he’s starting to put it together. Even though he has the same 13% BB rate we saw last year, he seems a lot more in control of his arsenal this year, if that makes any I just didn’t think he has much of a clue in 53 IP last year, but he looks a lot better this year.
• Dinelson Lamet – I didn’t watch Lamet’s MLB debut, but Jeff did so check out his review. He gets the Cubs this week for his second start. Be careful.
• Ty Blach – I try not to get too strikeout-focused at the risk of overlooking someone, but Blach has a 10% K rate. That’s HORRIFIC. I just can’t see a .250 BABIP continuing with that much contact.

I gotta mention Brian Johnson because he’ll be on the radar after a five-hit shutout of Seattle on Saturday, but he’s already back in Pawtucket with David Price returning on Monday. He’s a soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact lefty who had the best day he’ll ever have a major leaguer so I wouldn’t even really look to stash him in AL-onlys or anything.