Pitcher Spotlight: 10 Potential Keeper Arms

It’s been a big year for hitting without a doubt, but that doesn’t mean that we haven’t seen some great pitchers emerge. Guys like James Paxton, Alex Wood, and Luis Severino are winning leagues for people, but there are also plenty of intriguing arms who aren’t necessarily toting gaudy bottom line results. However, their skills and stuff set them up to be next year’s version of those guys and they are the ones you can buy now for a big 2018 payoff. We’ll span league depth with a couple deep league considerations, too.

Danny Salazar | Indians

Danny Salazar has been peak Salazar since his return from the DL and I’m pretty excited about his prospects down the stretch and beyond. He’s allowed just three runs in 20 innings since returning, with 28 strikeouts, five walks, and eight hits! We talked about him on the podcast right around his return, I wrote up his first and second starts in the Roto Riteup, and then Eno wrote up his new approach. We saw what he can do in 2015 with a 3.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts in 185 innings. Since then, his walk rate has spiked to 11% and he’s been DL’d with both elbow and shoulder injuries, but he’s still just 27 with top-flight skills.

Jordan Montgomery | Yankees

Adding both Sonny Gray and Jaime Garcia left Montgomery on the outside looking in and a 5.90 ERA in July certainly didn’t help things. He did manage a gem over the weekend (5 IP/3 H/1 ER/7 K at CLE) prior to his demotion, but the Yankees chose to focus on their veteran staff over the budding 24-year old lefty. Montgomery’s ERA has actually never been under 3.50 at any point this year and yet I’m heavily encouraged by his performance. He has 23% K, 7% BB, 13% SwStr, and 34% O-Swing rates with his changeup, curveball, and slider all generating positive pitch values. Montgomery isn’t elite in any one aspect of his game, but often plays above average across the board, offering substantial upside.

Luis Castillo | Reds

Castillo’s 3.64 ERA has come against a hellacious schedule that includes trips to Washington, Colorado, Arizona, and the Bronx as well as home outings Washington, Arizona, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. He hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any of his nine outings and he’s allowed 0-2 in four of the outings. He’s blazing the radar gun at 97.6 mph on average, an MLB-best among the 161 starters who have thrown at least 50 innings. He’s backed the velocity with a strong changeup and slider combo, both of which has been swing-and-miss monsters helping him to a 25% K rate.

In addition to the strikeouts, he has a 59% groundball rate that helps minimize the downside of his obvious command shortcomings. Command and control of the impressive arsenal will be the 24-year old righty’s biggest challenge the rest of the way in 2017 and in the future, but it’s hard not to buy in on what we’ve seen thus far. There are some 2015 Luis Severino vibes to Castillo’s ascent and thus patience is a must with a profile like this, but hopefully his being three years older than Severino was in 2015 helps narrow the learning curve for Castillo.

Jose Urena | Marlins

Urena is showing glimpses of his potential with a start or two here and there, but nothing in his bottom line results jumps off the page. He has just an 8% K-BB rate thanks in large part to a paltry 16% K rate, but the 25-year old throw 95.5 mph and has the necessary pieces to do more than we’ve seen thus far. The 3.70 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are actually quite impressive given the base skills (4.83 FIP), but there is an arsenal here capable of earning an even lower ERA and a much better strikeout rate.

After the fastball, he has a changeup to keep lefties at bay (.176 AVG, 23% K in 80 PA) and a slider that befuddles righties (.138 AVG, 33% K in 85 PA). Improving the big heater is what will take him to the next level. That, and limiting the long ball. All three of his pitches are prone to the gopherball at times. He’s allowed 13 homers as a starter, nine have come in the starts bearing his five worst Game Scores of the season, including four multi-homer games. Cutting homers and honing his mid-90s fastball offer a path to a substantial 2018 breakout for Urena.

Others to Consider:

• Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) – Injuries have cut into his season yet again, but we continue to see the maturation of his stuff and he’ll be just 25 year old next season.
• Kevin Gausman (BAL) – I know, I know, fool me 9,482 times, shame on me. I’m weak.
• Dinelson Lamet (SD) – 30% K, .211 AVG, but also 1.6 HR and 38% Hard contact. I guess we’re seeing why he was given 40 grade command, but an improvement to average would push his ceiling way up.
• The Rockies – I’ve already raved about German Marquez, but teammates Jeff Hoffman and Jon Gray are still firmly entrenched on my radar as well. I was among those excited about Gray coming into the season, but an injury has limited him to just 10 starts and he’s been inconsistent within that short sample, too. Meanwhile, Hoffman’s pedigree isn’t too far from Gray’s so if you’re big on one, you’ll probably like the other.