Pitcher Fantasy Value Changes From Trades Part 1

It’s difficult to predict how a trade will impact a pitchers fantasy value, but we’ll try to do it anyways. It mostly seems that relievers lose value because they tend to shift out of the high leverage roles that made them a trade target in the first place. Starters provide a little more support thanks to measurable park factors, team defenses and winning percentages. In this article, I’ve provided a comparison of those statistics from one team to another and attempted a best guess at whether the trade was an upgrade, a neutral move, or a downgrade.

• Paul Sporer will cover the rest of the pitchers in a Part 2 coming soon
• Jeff Zimmerman covered the hitters here

KEY:
5-year park factors (Basic), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Outs Above Average (OAA), Def, Team Winning Percentage W%

Upgrade

Yusei Kikuchi to TOR: Park factors say he’ll be pitching in a better park as long as he keeps it in the yard, but leaving behind Toronto’s defense may have some impact. He joins a better team from a W% perspective and a much stronger relief core out of the bullpen (TOR RP ERA: 5.00 vs. HOU RP ERA: 3.71) may keep him in line for wins more often.

Robby Snelling to MIA: Yet to debut, Snelling has a lot of potential with a clear path to the rotation, it’s just a matter of when. This is a slight upgrade in keeper leagues because he may get a chance sooner in Miami.

Seranthony Domínguez to BAL: This is an upgrade from a role perspective, but moving teams doesn’t suddenly bring back a pitcher’s swing and miss. With closer Craig Kimbrel slumping, Domínguez is worth an add simply because of a likely increase in high leverage innings.

Michael Kopech to LAD: It feels like a move to anywhere would be good for Kopech. RosterResource currently has him in a closer committee, but that seems like a tough sell at this point. He is a reclamation project going to a team that is more capable of returning him to better form.

Zach Eflin to BAL: He will benefit from a better defense playing behind him. He’ll also benefit from playing for a team with a better winning percentage. Being on a better team can’t hurt.

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Neutral

Walter Pennington to TEX: Was a prospect projected as a reliever, still is a prospect projected as a reliever.

Gregory Soto to BAL: Two saves and seven holds with the Phillies probably won’t be doubled in his time in Baltimore. Keep an eye on bullpen roles, but this seems like a neutral move in fantasy.

A.J. Puk to ARI: He likely keeps his role as a setup man.

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Downgrade

Michael Lorenzen to KCR: Due to the uncertainty of his role, this move feels like a downgrade from a fantasy perspective. You can understand, by looking at his splits below, why the Royals may have him work out of the bullpen:

Yet the move overall places Lorenzen on a slightly better team by W%. On the defense/park factors comparison, let’s call it a wash?

Quinn Priester to BOS: He joins a better team in a worse park and may spend more time in AAA with the Red Sox than he would have with the Pirates. For the long term, keeper league manager, it may come down to which team has a better pitching development system.

Martín Pérez to SDP: Better team, better park and mostly a better defense. We’ll have to wait and see what happens when Joe Musgrove returns.

Adam Mazur to MIA: He was spot starting/opening in San Diego and now RosterResource has him demoted to AAA. This is a downgrade for 2024 simply because his playing time is now in question. He’s a long-term/keeper play in fantasy.

Jason Adam to SDP: With 19 holds and four saves in Tampa Bay, Adam now has Tanner Scott in front of him before the closer Robert Suarez. This seems like an ever-so-slight downgrade due to the crowded nature of the Padres pen, but perhaps a better team will give him more opportunities to accumulate stats.