Picking Non-Obvious League Hitting Leaders

Faced with the dejecting reality that it’s been two weeks and my Bold Predictions are already falling apart at the seams, I stand at a crossroads. Play it safe and hope the internet simply forgets about the aforementioned Bold Predictions (and perhaps stop linking to them), or perch myself squarely out on several more limbs. Obviously I’m heading out on more limbs.

Really this is a combination of two factors. One, most of you have drafted at this point because baseball is two days (!) away. Two, it’s not very thought-provoking to say Giancarlo Stanton will lead the NL in home runs. Thus the non-obvious hitting league leaders was born, and it’s exactly what it sounds like. I’ll predict the league leader for each category, discounting what I deem to be the most obvious pick or picks.

Home runs (NL)

Obvious pick: Giancarlo Stanton

Non-obvious pick: Mark Trumbo

I pondered Lucas Duda, Anthony Rizzo, Jay Bruce and Jorge Soler, but eventually settled on Trumbo. Trumbo reeled off three excellent power seasons for the Angels before a trade to the Diamondbacks. Then injuries robbed him of the chance to show what would happen in a better park for right-handed power. Even in a season full of struggles, Trumbo’s home runs averaged 406.4 feet, showing he can still hit an impressive dinger. Sorry AP. He can still hit an impressive homer.

Home runs (AL)

Obvious picks: Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Davis, Jose Abreu and Chris Carter

Non-obvious pick: Josh Donaldson

I may have gone a little overboard with the Obvious Picks on this one but none of those guys seemed like a fair choice. It’s easy to say Donaldson’s move to a better park will boost his power (as long as the dreaded turf doesn’t cause injuries), and occasionally the easy thing is also the right thing.

RBI (NL)

Obvious pick: Paul Goldschmidt

Non-obvious pick: Anthony Rizzo

It hasn’t helped Rizzo’s RBI chances that the Cubs were 28th in OBP each of the past two seasons. The addition of Dexter Fowler and his .366 career OBP at the leadoff spot will help immediately. Miguel Montero should be another upgrade over Welington Castillo in that regard. It’s also fair to expect continued improvement from Rizzo, sweetening the pot even more.

RBI (AL)

Obvious picks: Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout

Non-obvious pick: Josh Donaldson

As I mentioned above, I like Donaldson’s chances for a power boost and if he hits fifth in Toronto, he’ll be behind four players who should have at least a .330 OBP. That’s quite the setup for RBI goodness.

Runs (NL)

Obvious pick: Andrew McCutchen

Non-obvious pick: Christian Yelich

While Yelich’s power development is more of an open question, his ability to score runs is far less uncertain. His speed and tendency to hit the ball on the ground will help him maintain a high BABIP. A high BABIP with his solid walk rate means he’ll be on base plenty, and it’s helpful to have Giancarlo Stanton hitting behind him.

Runs (AL)

Obvious pick: Mike Trout

Non-obvious pick: Mookie Betts

Sure Betts had only 213 plate appearances last season, but what a glorious 213 plate appearances they were. Betts showed an elite ability to not swing at pitches outside of the zone and made great contact when he did swing. He’s also a good bet for a double-digit walk rate, meaning a strong OBP is in the cards.

Steals (NL)

Obvious picks: Billy Hamilton, Ben Revere and Dee Gordon

Non-obvious pick: Starling Marte

I hamstrung myself with the Obvious Picks since no one else really makes sense at the moment. Marte attempted a whopping 56 steals in 2013 and was down to 41 in 2014. I don’t think it’s very likely he starts running more in 2015, though at 26 years old it’s possible. Really, this pick would need a series of unfortunate events to occur to the guys listed in Obvious Picks in order to come true.

Steals (AL)

Obvious pick: Jose Altuve

Non-obvious pick: Billy Burns

Burns doesn’t have a starting job, though Coco Crisp’s injury may allow him to squeeze into the lineup. Burns had 57 steals across three levels in 2014 and 74 across two levels in 2013. The guy can run. He posted double-digit walk rates in every stop in the minors the past three years except a tough stint in Triple-A last season, which only helps his on-base ability.

Batting average (NL)

Obvious picks: Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey

Non-obvious pick: Nori Aoki

This boiled down to picking a speedy player who makes a ton of contact. All I need now is a big spike in BABIP brought on by some good ol’ fashioned luck. Aoki has a .287 career average and hit .285 last season.

Batting average (AL)

Obvious pick: Victor Martinez

Non-obvious pick: Michael Brantley

This pick seems easy even if I’m not a big fan of Brantley’s draft cost this season. He fits the speed/contact skillset mentioned above and he hit .327 last season (though that was aided by a BABIP 20 points over his career rate) so I don’t think it’s a big stretch. In fact, maybe Brantley isn’t non-obvious enough… but I’ll allow it since I’m making up the rules for this as I go.