Picking Hitting League Leaders Going 200th or Later

On recent episodes of The Sleeper & The Bust, Justin and I picked pitching and hitting league leaders for the upcoming season, highlighting a main pick and then someone to keep an eye on. I wanted to take it a step further and pick some guys who could lead the league in the 5×5 categories going pick-200 or later. Here are the pitchers and today we’ll cover hitters.

BATTING AVERAGE

Jesse Winker, CIN | Pick 345

A career .285 hitter, Winker dipped down to .269 last year when his BABIP was at a career-low .286, but he was at .332 from 2017-18 and hit a cool .299 in 471 PA. He has the talent to push a mid-.300s AVG in a short sample, especially if he’s protected a bit against lefties (.176 career AVG), though not too much or else he won’t qualify for the batting title. I don’t really understand Winker’s ADP. Even acknowledging his poor defense and inability to hit lefties, he’s better than pick 345 with a career 122 wRC+ as part of a fantastic lineup.

Also consider: Howie Kendrick (254) – Not a terribly daring secondary pick as he ripped a cool .344 last year which would’ve led the league and now the NL DH ensures a full-time role for the excellent hitter.

RUNS

Andrew McCutchen, PHI | Pick 214

I took the easy pick here with Cutch, but he’s outside the top 200 and has a career .378 OBP atop a solid lineup. He was pacing for 124 runs last year before the ACL injury cut his season short at 59 games. The extra time off ensures he’ll be ready for Opening Day and I could definitely see him scoring 45+ runs.

Also consider: Joey Votto (291) – Even in a down year, he still carried a .357 OBP and he will remain in the upper third of a now very strong lineup so if he pushes back toward a .400+ OBP, he might be the favorite to lead the league in runs overall, not just pick-200 or later.

HOME RUNS

Hunter Renfroe, TB| Pick 278

Renfroe popped 33 HR last year despite hitting an abysmal .216 AVG. His 24% HR/FB was a career high, but that’s not an outlandish, unsustainable figure and I could even see him holding a 28-31% mark over a 60-game sample. Imagine he can repeat the 60-game run he had from April 26th through July 12th of last year when he smashed 23 HR with a .261/.319/.638 run and a 31% HR/FB. That would definitely put him at or very near the top of the leaderboard.

Also consider: C.J. Cron (207) – He has about 13 HR per 60 games over the last two years which almost certainly won’t lead the league, but it’s a solid baseline to work with such that a couple hot weeks could push him into the upper-teens or even to 20 which I think will contend for the league lead.

RUNS BATTED IN

David Peralta, ARI | Pick 260

It’s definitely tough to find someone post-200 who could legitimately lead the league in RBIs because middle of the order hitters are often the cream of the crop or if they are available this late, they’re on bad teams so they won’t have enough men on base to lead the league. Peralta hits the sweet spot for me. He’s a damn fine hitter and slated to bat fourth on a team I find to be quite good.

He hasn’t even reached 87 RBIs in a season, but he has spent the most time in the cleanup spot over his career (737 PA) and has 37 RBI per 60 games there. Projections are eyeing 40-43 RBI to lead the league so he’s not too far off the pace and if the Martes and Eduardo Escobar set him up regularly in the top three spots, he could definitely push a total of 40+.

Also consider: Daniel Murphy (244) – A really good hitter in Colorado, I’m a risk-taker!

STOLEN BASES

Kevin Kiermaier, TB | Pick 348

Just four of the top 30 projected base stealers by ATC projections are being drafted outside the top 200 (my “Also consider” pick, Jon Berti, Dee Gordon, and Billy Hamilton) so it’s not easy to find someone here especially since I’m not super sold on those four. None of them have a starting role nor are they particularly good hitters so I dipped further to Kiermaier who has at least shown flashes of being an average or better hitter (107 wRC+ in 2014-17). He has fallen on hard times the last two years (78 wRC+), but he still has double-digit SBs in both seasons.

Kiermaier has averaged 8 SB per 60 games the last two seasons which would put him in the top 20 of the ATC SB projections, though admittedly a far cry from the leaders of Adalberto Mondesi (18), Mallex Smith (16), and Trea Turner (15). From May 1st through July 18th last year he went 14-for-15 in a 60-game span and that was without even hitting particularly well (.241/.284/.417) so if he can recapture his previous level of hitting and push the OBP back toward his .319 mark from 2014-17, then he could feasibly swipe 18-20 bases.

Also consider: Jarrod Dyson (337) – Projected for 9 SBs in 37 games as he’s expected to platoon, though there aren’t a ton of lefties in the mega central. While he’s unlikely to play all 60 games, he does have 18 SB per 60 games over his career.