Phillies Bullpen: A Shining Light

Pundits and projection systems don’t always agree. When they do, it often signals some underlying truth. Everybody, human and computer, expects the Philadelphia Phillies to be bad this season. Really, the only debate is the degree of awful. Will they be merely bad or downright terrible? With the doom and gloom, it’s easy to forget the Phillies project to be among the best in baseball in one regard – relief pitching.

The Bullpen

Jonathan Papelbon
Ken Giles
Jake Diekman
Justin De Fratus
Mario Hollands

The Phillies are currently in the midst of a rebuilding offseason, which means there is a good chance Papelbon will be traded. Talks have occurred with the Brewers, Blue Jays, and a mystery AL team, but elements like Papelbon’s no trade clause and achievable $13 million vesting option have slowed down the process. The Phillies want a “quality prospect” and are willing to eat cash to that end.

Regardless of where he ends up, Papelbon remains a useful fantasy reliever. The 34-year-old’s velocity has declined drastically in recent seasons, from 95 mph in 2011 to barely over 91 mph last season. His splitters and sliders have remained effective despite the overall loss in velocity. He allowed just two home runs in 66 innings last year (2.7 percent HR/FB), which seems fluky. He also managed a .247 BABIP – 30 points below his career average.

The warning signs are there. Papelbon may be a merely decent reliever at this stage of his career. He can still strikeout about a batter per inning while limiting walks. But how much do you want to rely on low HR/FB and BABIP? Assuming the Phillies get some kind of prospect in return, it’s a great time to sell.

The next man in line is Giles, whose ability to reach triple digit velocity has him looking like the next Craig Kimbrel. Before you sharpen your draft knives, be aware of his minor league walk rates. In the majors, he posted 12.61 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9. In the minors, he frequently averaged over 5.00 BB/9. We should probably expect his walk rate to regress to somewhere between 3.00 and 4.00 BB/9. Incidentally, he would be left with strikeout and walk rates similar to the 2014 version of Kimbrel.

Diekman presents a similarly exciting picture from the left side. He can also run his fastball up over 100 mph. He featured a strong 12.68 K/9 with shaky control (4.44 BB/9). He’s always scuffled with command and control, but he has been better at the major league level. There is definitely potential for growth. If it doesn’t happen, he’s still a snazzy holds option.

Farther down in the pen are De Fratus and Hollands. De Fratus was once a better relief prospect than either Giles or Diekman. After bouncing between the majors and minors for three seasons, he appears to have cemented a major league role. While his 8.37 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 don’t stand out these days, they’re more than good enough for a middle relief role.

Hollands is the last of the guys who seem likely to head north from Florida, although he comes with a couple caveats. Despite being used as a LOOGY, Hollands wasn’t exactly imposing against his same-handed brethren (7.59 K/9, 3.38 BB/9). His splits do insist that he be hidden from right-handed hitters. He featured a good ground ball rate (51 percent) last season. He’s coming back from an elbow injury, so there’s a chance he’ll start the year on the disabled list. If his scuffles in spring training or others excel, he could be optioned.

Also in the Mix

Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
Phillippe Aumont
Luis Garcia
Andrew Oliver
Hector Neris
Kevin Slowey
Jonathan Pettibone

With the possible exceptions of Gonzalez and Aumont, none of the back end options are particularly enticing. Aumont occasionally has wicked raw stuff, including a sinking fastball I would compare to Tyson Ross (the fastball itself looks like Tyson Ross). Inconsistency in his stuff and command has left him indefinitely stranded in the minors. He’s likely to be outrighted off the roster if he does not earn a spot in the bullpen.

By my count, the Phillies need to add one more right-hander and a long reliever. Gonzalez should have the inside track on one of those jobs. The Cuban will earn $7 million over the next two seasons. It’s time to get a read on the asset. He pitched very well in the minors once he was moved to a relief role.

Oliver is the club’s second Rule 5 pick. Unlike Odubel Herrera, who seems to have a job sewn up, Oliver will need to impress to remain in Philadelphia. The former Tigers prospect struggles with command and control.

The others are a of little consequence. Slowey and Pettibone will battle for a swingman role. Garcia and Neris could factor in as middle relievers if none of the others steps forward.