Perpetua’s Bold Predictions – A Review

Well, the season is over, and it is time to review Bold Predictions. In my midseason check in I wrote the following to describe my position on Bold Predictions:

I think these should be fun and spark conversation. As a result, they should probably be controversial, at least in part. There should be a reason for each pick, and the reason shouldn’t necessarily be built on a strong hypothesis. If you have a solid reason to believe something then you aren’t talking about a bold prediction, it is just a normal prediction. Bold predictions should be built on a questionable foundation, that’s the fun part.

Today I will not get into the deeper reasons for each prediction, you can read the mid season check in to find those. Instead, let’s get down to brass tacks. How’d I do?

1: Steven Matz will be a top 10 starting pitcher

Well, Matz spent the entire season injured, again. If you want to find any light at the end of the tunnel, he underwent surgery to correct his Cubital Tunnel Syndrome (which causes pain and numbness of the elbow, forearm, hand, and fingers). The surgery is called Ulnar Nerve Transposition, and while every surgery comes with risks and possible complications, this particular surgery should be relatively minor in the grand scheme of things. Nothing nearly as serious as, say, a torn ligament. It is more in the category of ‘removing bone chips’.

It seems that a number of players had this surgery this season, Michael Fulmer was another big name. Jacob deGrom had it done last season. It generally takes just a few weeks to recovery from the surgery, perhaps 2 months to get back to game ready shape. So, maybe, hopefully, this will help Matz in the future. He has all of the talent to be successful, and to date, none of the health.

WRONG(0/1)

2: Jay Bruce will bat .270

Okay, so, this didn’t happen, but it looked like it could have prior to getting traded! I had my hopes up.  He was batting .266 at the All Star Break and .265 on August 1st. Then he had a very weak August and an even worse September. I expected Bruce to have a better year in 2017 than he had in 2016. In the end, he put up roughly identical numbers in both. And in both cases he had horrible August/September slumps.

WRONG(0/2)

3: Lucas Duda will outperform his ADP by 250.

Duda nearly took a ride on the “30+ HR, <60 RBI” train. He barely missed the cut off with 64 RBI. Only three players have ever taken a ride on this train, Jed Gyorko, Curtis Granderson, and Kyle Schwarber. The first two did so last season, and the other this year. I believe the term is ‘empty home runs.’

WRONG(0/3)

4: DJ LeMahieu will hit 20 homers

He didn’t, but I believe he will one day. Maybe I’m a year early.

WRONG (0/4)

5: Edwin Encarnacion will underperform his ADP by 30 spots

His ADP was around 25 and he finished the season closer to 85. I get a point!

CORRECT (1/5)

6: Carlos Rodon will have a significant drop in HR/FB (to 11%)

His home run per flyball went up very significantly, from 13.8% to 19%. This cannot be blamed on the ‘juiced ball’ either, as this increase is more than double the 20% increase that all pitchers have suffered.

WRONG (1/6)

7: Gary Sanchez will hit fewer than 30 home runs, and he will not have the most homers as a catcher.

He hit 33, and had the most. And he missed a month with an elbow injury.

DOUBLE WRONG (1/8)

8: Wil Myers and Trea Turner will finish the season with roughly the same slash line +/- 2%:

This pick was a bit of a reverse psychology move on my part. I wanted to be wrong here, and I was. And I was wrong in the way I wanted to be wrong. Meaning Turner totally out hit Wil Myers.

WRONG, but with a smirk (1/9)

9: SunTrust Park will increase the Braves home run total by 17%.

In 2016, the Braves hit 52 homers in Turner Field.  They needed to hit at least 61 this season in SunTrust Park. They hit 77. Closer to a 50% increase.

CORRECT (2/10)

10: Kenta Maeda will underperform his ADP by 50.

Ugggghhh this one was so close. I predicted his end of season rank would be 145 or worse. He ended at 140. I’ll take it as a hollow moral victory.

So close, BUT STILL WRONG (2/11)

BONUS: There will be a record number of home runs in Citi Field in the month of April.

Nope.

NO BONUS POINTS (2/11)

Two out of eleven isn’t so bad. Although maybe you could say the SunTrust Park one is incorrect. I stated it would increase by 17%, and it was most like 50%. So, maybe it is 1/11. One out of eleven places me among the ranks of Bartolo Colon and his career .085 average. I can’t think of better company.