Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – August 3rd, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Are we recovering from the frenzy?

Walker Buehler: Level of concern about my injury for next season?

Paul Sporer: Too early to say.

Chuck: Is it time to give up on Castellanos?

Paul Sporer: Definitely depends who you’re picking up for him, but my goodness has he been bad! Given the substantial fall off and just utter lack of power, it’s hard not to think he’s playing through something, right? His skills didn’t just melt, right?! At any rate, I understand moving on in shallower formats

Chuck: Do you believe in Detmers’ recent surge? Apparently he tweaked his slider during his recent sojourn in Salt Lake.

Paul Sporer: I do. I loved him coming into the season! I felt comfortable cutting him when he got sent down based on how things were going, but I’m not at all surprised by the turn in success. I wasn’t *certain* it’d come this year, but definitely feel he has massive upside

Quad 8s: Roster crunch drop 1 IL: Severino, J.Gray, Story. 12tm H2h pts league

Paul Sporer: Sevvy. I have little hope for him rest of season

NicaBeisbol: Quijada got a shot to close in LAA now?  They have to win a few games, right?  (AL-only league and desperate since I just lost Iglesias and Tepera is taken.)

Paul Sporer: He can get some of the opps. when lefties are coming up and if Tepera is booty, Q could get even more. So yeah, I don’t mind speculating on him

Degrom: Was JT Realmuto and Matt Olson too much to give up for me? Change of reinjury or poor performance?

Paul Sporer: No, I think that’s fine. Obv if he gets hurt it is, but that’s any trade… I’m OK with this

Jim Leyland Palmer: How would you rate these options in a Keep Forever league (5×5 H2H 10tm): Strider (kept at 23rd), Wilson Contreras (10th), Riley Greene (17th)?

Paul Sporer: Greene, Strider, Contreras

Quad 8s: Roster crunch drop 1 in 12 tm H2h pts: Sonny Gray, Triston McKenzie, Rasmussen (RP eligible), Heaney?

Paul Sporer: It’s Ras for me. His upside is curbed as a five-and-dive so he’s the 12-team cut here

Tim: Talk me off the ledge: Is Giolito gonna be okay?

Paul Sporer: He might just be OK… but not quite the Gio you drafted. It seems to be inconsistent command start-to-start, inning-to-inning as opposed to one centralized issue to attack

Trey: Your thoughts on Vin Scully?

Paul Sporer: The absolute legend. RIP. <3

Ken: Been enjoying Chapman’s hot streak the last few weeks. Do you have any confidence he can at least maintain the power rest of the way, or should I be looking to work him into a deadline deal while he’s got a little value?

Paul Sporer: He was my most drafted player with Luke Voit this year across all my leagues so I believe in Chap!

Guest: Berti still a hold? His status hasn’t been updated in about an eon, and he’s a speed play with a groin issue. But…steals.

Paul Sporer: I can’t cut him just yet. He can be SUUUCH a massive game changer that I just can’t cut without some news

Chone of the Dead: Yo Paul! Thanks for this! Do you prefer Bohm or Ke’ Hayes ROS in a points league?

Paul Sporer: They aren’t too far off in total skills so gimme the guy on a better team: Bohm

Bruce in 2023: Stream S.Wathins vs Pit in Bal ? Need the Win . Roto

Paul Sporer: I’d stream myself v. Pit!

Paul Sporer: So yes I’m cool taking a shot on Watkins

Lou: How about that Braxton kid!? I’m not sure I’d ever heard of the guy until a few weeks ago, but have been enjoying the Ks. What’s your outlook ROS? And how do you see him developing more long-term (re: potential keeper status)?

Paul Sporer: Braxton Garrett has been awesome for Miami! I have a lot of confidence in Miami’s SPs given their development and friendly park so I’m in here. Riding it for the foreseeable future!

Nucky: Jeffrey Springs or Ranger Suarez Ros?

Paul Sporer: I’m inclined to lean a little toward Suarez if only because I’m not sure how many more IP Springs is going to be allowed to pile up as a new SP

Sean: Is pablo lopez too volatile to roster in 10s?

Paul Sporer: Not at all. He’s an all-formats guy for sure. Even w/the few duds sprinkled in, he’s at 3.41/1.12. We knew his insane sub-2.00 ERA would regress and this is that regression

Chuck: Do you prefer any of these guys over Castellanos?: Naylor, Benintendi, Mateo, S. Brown, Grisham. 12 H2H with OBP + SLG

Paul Sporer: I prefer Naylor which feels crazy to say but that’s where we’re at with Casty right now (plus Naylor is a G)

Jim Leyland Palmer: Thanks! I’m kind of surprised with Greene #1 tbh? I’m obviously a Tigers slappy myself, but I figured that Strider has been elite his rookie year, while Greene has more or less held his own at best. Is this more you being high on Riley or low on Strider?

Paul Sporer: Re: the keeper question earlier – I’m always going to favor the hitter when it’s close! There is just SO much inherent risk with arms

Guest: Is Leodys Tavaras for real, or is this just a good few weeks? He’s only 23,so I’m thinking there may be something here.

Paul Sporer: While I am a huge Leody believer, THIS level is unsustainable. The .424 BABIP is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here! That said, if he can be like a 95-100 level wRC+, that’d be enough to get on based regularly and rack up SBs!

Steph: Any favorite RPs *for next year* on teams that just traded away their closer?

Paul Sporer: Nobody in that realm, but keep tabs on Zach Pop in Toronto. He has monster groundball stuff and if they can find some swing-and-miss with his slider, he could be a stud RP

Collin: Breaking news question – The Nats just sent Voit down to the minors (https://www.mlb.com/nationals/roster/transactions). What the h e double hockey sticks kinda move is that?

Paul Sporer: WTF!?!?

Paul Sporer: I have no idea why that happened

HappyFunBall: Start Springs @DET? The catch is that with my league’s innings cap I am loath to start a guy unless I really think he’s going to get a QS. Springs’ peripherals are great but his length….is not.

Paul Sporer: The QS thing complicates it but I think it makes a personal choice bc I have no clue if they let him go 6 IP. There is no better team to try & go 6 against, though

Saves Please: Hi Paul, who closes in Oakland?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know that they’ll choose 1 guy, but I think Jimenez will get a crack at showing his early season goodness now that he’s off the IL. I love Puk and I’m open to throwing a buck at him with everyone looking at Jimenez and Zach Jackson

beancounter: Is there any hope for Akil Baddoo? Still only 23,  but boy has this been a disappointment thus far.

Paul Sporer: He doesn’t even have 100 PA this year. Prospect growth isn’t linear. There’s still plenty of upside here

The Jers: Do you think Ezequiel Duran will be a full-time starter for Texas in 2023? Do you think it will be at 3B and what kind of season-long line could we expect from him?

Paul Sporer: Josh Jung is penciled into 3B next year (just as he was this year before the broken foot). Duran might be more of a utility type

HappyFunBall: I don’t think Voit is in Rochester. I think he’s just not technically been assigned to the Nats major league roster. Probably still in transit and they’re using the roster spot for someone else until he arrives

Paul Sporer: I sure hope you’re right!

George Kirby: Will I stay in the rotation all year?

Paul Sporer: Probably not. I imagine they will massage things a bit so there is some juice in the tank for the playoffs. He only threw 91 IP last year so I’d be surprised if he was left in unencumbered the rest of the way

Salty: How do you feel about the Tigers deadline?  Surprised they didn’t move Soto?  Glad to see they held on to Skubal, that was a pretty wild rumor about them moving him.

Paul Sporer: Skubal was never moving. So many rumors are puuuure fluff and that one definitely fits the mold. If they weren’t getting a great offer for Soto, there was no need to force it. That said, I’m not sure I have the most confidence in Avila to know what the best offers are in trade talks. At least they moved Grossman & Fulmer, that would’ve been malpractice otherwise

The Ghost of Pumpsie Green: Is Jordan Montgomery a better pitcher in St. Louis? Will they let him go past the 5th inning?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t see why he can’t keep going 6 IP regularly. That defense & easier division could definitely yield a boost. I don’t see any way he’s WORSE, so status quo at worst

Insert Witty Name Here: In a shallow 8 teamer OBP league with four OF spots and 2 UT, how would your organize 1B and OF between Abreu, Hoskins, Schwarber, Yordan, Luis Robert, Buxton, and Kwan? Basically I’m not sure if I’m better off with Schwarbs at 1B or the OF

Paul Sporer: So you have 4 OF, 2 UT, 1 1B for all 7, right? I’m not sure I’m following the potential issue here. Is there any difference between slotting someone at 1B or OF?

Zach: Jose Barrero just got called up.  Seems hamate injury screwed him up pretty badly this season. Think he plays and hits ROS?

Paul Sporer: LOOOVED him coming into the season only to have the injury derail his entire season. Probably only scooping him in 15s and deeper right now until we see something given how rough the MiLB work has been this year

No Neck Williams: Does Whit Merrifield take even more time from Cavan Bigggio?

Paul Sporer: Biggio’s a non-factor. That’s why it’s a much worse move for Espinal, who is playing every day

Hot Gabbagool: Paul! Any OOTP tips for starting an expansion team?

Paul Sporer: Definitely down to answer more detailed questions in a different forum, but there will likely be a lot of good quality RPs in the expansion draft. Don’t be afraid to draft a bunch of them and flip them around the league. Make sure you’re keeping tabs on the Waiver Wire in-season, too, lots of potential gems that come through, especially for an expansion team!

Wild Thing Andrew Vaughn: Is there another level of pop for me? If so, do we think we will see it in 2022?

Paul Sporer: I think there’s even more (particularly in the pwr dept.), he’s only 200 gms into his MLB career. Impossible to say if it comes through in the next 2 mos., but I don’t believe he’s at his peak yet

Slopoke: Last in steals by almost 20 and bottom half in other offensive stats. Worth punting entirely and moving 5 category  guys like Bichette for more solid 4 category studs?

Paul Sporer: Yes, it’s SB punting time. If you can move the few speed contingents you have for power-focused guys, that’s the move

Uh oh: Castellanos heard you were talking shit

Paul Sporer: LOL it’s not talking shit when it’s true!

Paul Sporer: (He hit a 2R HR for those who didn’t see!)

Guest: Is McGuire capable of being a full time catcher ROS or do we see a Worcester catcher up in Boston soon?

Paul Sporer: He’s never really shown any sort of upside at the dish so I’m not sure he’s more than a perfect backup

Bill: What happens to the Dodgers and Astros rotations when May and McCullers return? 6 man?

Paul Sporer: Definitely not 6-man. I doubt May starts much comin off TJ. But they’ll figure it out. These things often take care of themselves via someone else getting hurt

HappyFunBall: Following up on Voit:

 

Mark Zuckerman

@MarkZuckerman

 

Luke Voit will join the Nationals tomorrow in Philadelphia. Davey Martinez says he’ll be their 1B or DH most days the rest of the season. He’s also under club control through 2024, and they feel like he’ll be part of the middle of their lineup moving forward.

3 Aug 2022

Paul Sporer: Phew!

Guest: Re Andrew Vaughn: will he end up a 1B or stay OF?

Paul Sporer: Prob. 1B with Abreu a free agent after this year

Joe: How do you decide when to become a seller in a keeper league? I have a team in 4th place, 6 points out of the money (3rd) and 14 out of 1st. Definately to close to sell yet, but it feels like in cruising towards an inevatable 4th place finish…

Paul Sporer: Yeah you def can’t sell where you’re at, but making the decision in any league should be based on an assessment of how many points you can realistically gain with your team simply playing well. If you can’t carve out a realistic path to the money via that exercise, it’s probably time to pack it in.

Enrico Palazzo: I dropped Taylor Ward this morning in my 20 teamer and feel great about it. That is all.

Paul Sporer: No shot.

Homer: In a 20?  Do you have any open spots, and how much money are you playing for?!?

Paul Sporer: Right? That’s just bad play if you cut him in a 20!

Homer: I’m feeling pretty excited about Mancini in HOU…what say you?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t be surprised if he blasted 20 HRs from here on out. Now obviously that’s not my projection, but I love him there, too. Used to be that Camden to Minute Maid wasn’t that big of a gain but with the new Camden LF wall, it’s a huge boost

Say It To Me S.P.O.R.E.R.: How do you think Jays will use Mitch White?  Will he get consistent starts in that rotation as it currently stands?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. They’ve got their 5. He’s a good backup that they can keep stretched out at AAA or in the pen

Bruce in 2023: Montgomery scheduled to face the Yankees next

Paul Sporer: Love when stuff like that happens!!

Enrico Palazzo: Respectfully agree to disagree fellas, taking a shot on Miggy Vargas instead.

Paul Sporer: There’s just no way Ward was your best cut

vr: Is Tyler O’Neill for Adames a fair trade in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s totally fine

Tony LaRussa: How much responsibility do I bear for the White Sox underperformance?

Paul Sporer: I want to say all bc I’m not a fan of his at all, but I realize that’s not true. It’s certainly not 0%, though, either. That was a dumb move from the jump and now he’s passing out in the 1st inning of games. It just never made an ounce of sense for that club

jackal: Do You think Jonathan Hernandez becomes the closer in Texas?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s in the mix for it, yes. They might not thrust him into the fully as he’s just back from TJ, but I see him getting plenty of opps. and ideally being their guy in 2023

GoCubsGo: Cubs fan…talk me off the ledge please.  The next few years are looking bleak, right?

Paul Sporer: Well yeah it’s a rebuild, but they did brilliantly last deadline and OK this one. Surprised Contreras wasn’t dealt, but if they weren’t getting the right deals, they weren’t just gonna do it to do it

Mark Belanger: Mancini with a 2 run HR. Welcome to Houston.

Paul Sporer: BOOM! 19 more!

Paul Sporer: Who else should we discuss to get ’em a homer? lol

Homer: So, took what I consider a risky move…dumped Kimbrel for D. Williams when Hader was traded.  Heavy Saves league, pts.  Am I a genius, or a dummy?

Paul Sporer: Gummy… I love getting Dev, but like the Taylor Ward cut in a 20-teamer, is that really the guy you had to cut? Why not just hold him and get Dev in addition?

Colton: Talk about Witt for a homer please, I’m desperate lol

Paul Sporer: Ooh I could use that, too! Maybe a hot little combo meal from Bobby Witt (HR/SB in same gm)

Enrico Palazzo: Other options were Pham, Crawford (obp & assists league) , Leody and Nimmo

Paul Sporer: I’d have been more comfortable cutting Leody instead of eating the regression of his .424 BABIP. I grant that Ward has been rough since the injury that cost him 9 gms, but that’s regression from like an 1100 OPS for 40 gms so it’s understandable. I still think he’s good. I do like that you picked up Vargas, though, he’s very interesting

HappyFunBall: How are all those OFs available in Enrico’s 20-team league? do they start only a single OF ?

Paul Sporer: No no, those were his other potential cuts

Roberto: Cron or Tellez ROS and next year?  Cron’s home/road splits scare me!

Paul Sporer: Home/road splits are part of the deal w/Rockies guys! Tellez has a pretty big one, too, without the benefit of Coors. I still favor Cron over Rowdy

Keep 15: Paul – Keep 15 H2H points league. Is my Tucker and Albies for their Tatis a small overpay, big overpay, or a massive overpay? Or potentially not an overpay at all?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s fine. Maybe a small overpay, but not objectionable at all IMO

Joe Torre: Did you get any sleep the past couple days?  Is the whole team just on standby humping the last couple days of the trade deadline?

Paul Sporer: After having COVID last week and sleeping through several days, it had my battery charged a bit to handle the endless stream of trades! I did like 8 hours of stuff yesterday between streams and the podcast and loved every second of it!

Justin: My dynasty OF has Kyle Tucker, Luis Robert, Jarred Kelenic and Brandon Marsh. Any hope for Kelenic or Marsh?

Paul Sporer: There is some hope for both, but the huge K rates certainly bring their ceilings down from there were, especially Kelenic because he was expected to have a good hit tool at the majors. We just don’t often see guys “fix” 30%+ K rates

Homer: Was kinda surprised that Mahle wasn’t getting as much helium as Castillo and Montas leading up to the deadline.  He’s put up some pretty good periods of sustained success…

Paul Sporer: Plus, getting out of Cincy is going to be HUGE for him! Huge jump in value for Mahle

Bob: Paul, are you updated SP rankings coming out soon? Always look forward to them and especially meaningful now with fantasy trade dealing looming.

Paul Sporer: Next week!

Sean: Can you rank India, Profar and Segura ROS?

Paul Sporer: With Segura on rehab, I’ve got him tops in this trio with Profar & India behind him

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!