Paul Sporer’s Weekly Baseball Chat – May 18th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Goood afternoon, y’all!

Don Juan: Drury or Bohm?

Paul Sporer: Drury delivers more fantasy goodness w/the pop

Bob: Hello. How much longer can we wait on Semien? His EV is down big, still zero HR, batting 157. We knew he wouldn’t repeat but, dang.

Paul Sporer: I’m OK benching him, but I still have a hard time cutting him in a shallow format

Don Juan: Did Tony Gonsolin turn the corner, or is this just a head fake?

Paul Sporer: Head fake-ish. He’s pretty good, but until we really see the BBs down for a good run of starts, I will still have some concerns about the control

Ryan Tepura: Is Tepura too wild to be an option for holds in fantasy?

Paul Sporer: It’s one nightmare outing. Unless it costs him his role or signifies injury, he should be fine

Dan: Hey Paul, 12 team H2H (std categoris plus OPS). Currently have Lux at 2b, you like Gimenez over him ROS? Thanks

Paul Sporer: I think they are a toss up so you can prefer your side comfortably

Jay Neil: ugh Royce Lewis to AAA….is he worth hanging on to?

Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe in deep leagues

Fingers: I can trade a $6 Tyler O’Neill for a $2 Jeremy Pena in my dynasty league…thoughts on ROS, and long-term on the both?  Appreciate anything you have to share.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m definitely OK with this trade

Tallulah Trebuchet: Any hope for Sewald racking up more than a handful of saves this season? Hold him or drop on a spec like Alexis Diaz (12 team roto)? I’m scrounging for saves.

Paul Sporer: Probablyyyy unlikely that he takes it over fully. Diaz will be in today’s Boxscore Bits and I think he can really take over the Cincy role so I prefer him

Don Juan: What do you expect from Kyle Lewis?

Paul Sporer: If healthy, I think he’s an all formats OF

Guest: How long can/should I stick with guys like O’Neill and Semien in a shallow 10-teamer when Pena, Vaughn, Drury types are on the wire?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with cutting one of them as two laggards like that can be awful in shallower formats, but I’d be reluctant to chop both. I’d hold Semien btw

GBS42: Can someone tell Gabe Kaplar that if your pitchwe makes it through five innings in Colorado while giving up only two runs, you take him out of the game instead of leaving him in to give up five more runs in a third of an inning?!?!?

Paul Sporer: I’ll text him!

Your Boy Ozzie: any concern at all? A lot of soft contact recently

Paul Sporer: It’s not great but I’m not sitting him or anything

Royce Duran: When do you see Lewis and Duran recalled again?

Paul Sporer: Hard to say, tbh. Usually when a spot opens up

Joey Baggadonuts: Any thoughts on when the Nats will get sick of a whole lotta nothin’ from Escobar and call up Luis Garcia? What sort of production would you expect to see from him if/when he gets the call?

Paul Sporer: Was just writing about this yesterday and think he needs to be up already!! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/boxscore-bits-may-17th-2022/

Guest: Should I drop ERod now in a 12 teamer? Would like to have a streaming spot. Also do you like Gibson vs SD tom?

Paul Sporer: I really wasn’t too concerned w/E-Rod prior to today’s mega dud. I’m OK cutting him 12 and Gibson is streamable v. SD, but it is a tough matchup

Insert Witty Name Here: Austin Riley’s numbers are on a straight downward trend. Sell now while I can or do you think he can rebound?

Paul Sporer: I’m totally OK selling

Guest: How scared should I be about Harper getting shut down?

Paul Sporer: Given how important he is for those who drafted him, you can rightly be scared, but there’s not a great way to plan for it so it might be idle worry that doesn’t do you any good in the end

Grant: Gerrit Cole for Jose Altuve/Jesse Winker in a vacuum… What side you got?

Paul Sporer: Cole. Just not in on Winker in SEA

Insert Witty Name Here: How long is Salvy out? Melendez ready to be top 5 C?

Paul Sporer: Melendez was playing pretty much daily anyway so this doesn’t change thaaaat much. Melendez can be a top 5 C for sure… partly due to C being horrendous, lol

PHC: In deeper league’s who are some RP’s we should be targeting?

Paul Sporer: Alexis Diaz

Paul Sporer: Always stay tuned into the Bullpen Report, too! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/bullpen-report-may-18-2022/

Kevin: Rutschman ever gonna get the call? Worth stashing in a 12-teamer? I have Perez who just went on the IL

Paul Sporer: He’s only 17 gms. They are giving him the full scale rehab tour with stops at A+ and AA before settling in at AAA. He should be up by June.

LanceCT: Perez down, who is the pickup

Paul Sporer: You mean Sal Perez? Who’s available?

Peter: Jose Urquidy strikeout numbers are down and he got hit pretty hard again yesterday. Any signs that he might turn things around?

Paul Sporer: Big time Urq guy, but it’s been rough. 14% K/9% SwStr isn’t getting it done. Just too much contact at that rate. I’m trying to hold in 12s and deeper, but it’s not egregious to cut him

Insert Witty Name Here: re: Riley he just hit a 3 run dong off Burnes. Still selling?

Paul Sporer: Well yeah, why would that tangibly change anything?

Paul Sporer: If anything, that helps the sell

BD: Thoughts on the outlook for Jesus Sanchez and Amed Rosario looking ahead? Is Rosario hitting dead-ball issues that are draining power? And is Sanchez’s streakiness something we just have to deal with? (I may need to cut one of them).

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think your assessment of both makes sense. Sanchez is definitely gonna be streaky w/those plate skills and Rosario is also getting held back by a .269 BABIP. Neutral needs, I’d lean Sanchez, but if SBs are a bigger need, I’d easily favor Rosario over him

This or that: Abreu or Tellez?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Tellez fan, but I really think there’s a major heater coming for Abreu. I wouldn’t cut either if that’s the choice, but I’ll still rank Abreu higher than Tellez

LanceCT: Perez down, who is the pickup and the alternate: MJ Molina Jansen Narvaez Bart. 10 team redraft, thank you

Paul Sporer: I’d just go with Melendez

Guest: Who would you start in OF ROS, Alek Thomas or Yelich?

Paul Sporer: Stop.

Rachel: Is Suzuki overhyped due to his hot first couple weeks? And is G Torres getting it together?

Paul Sporer: I meeean if anyone thought he was going to keep up a 1.000+ OPS the whole year, then he was probably overhyped. Butttt I think he can maintain a low-.800s OPS with plenty of pop. The 30% K rate will breed volatility, though

Logan: Are Mahle or Castillo worth buying low on given their hitter friendly part and abysmal offense?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t juuuuuust because of that because banking on a trade is tough

Mg3: Voit. Dropping or snagging?

Paul Sporer: Snagging in 12+ for sure

Trader Jerry’s: Would you prefer Stephenson and Schwarber or Julio and Kyle Wright in a points league?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a heavy lean there

Mike: Naylor or Vaughn?

Paul Sporer: Naylor

Pablo: William Contreras or Mitch Garver as Salvy replacement in 12 team league? Other options not so good (Maldanado, Barnhart etc)

Paul Sporer: Garver on rehab and working his way back, so I’d lean him

Kate: At what point do we become concerned with Josiah Gray’s flyball / HR rates?

Paul Sporer: His homers are why I wasn’t really chasing him in drafts

Brownie: Saw Jeremy Pena mentioned a couple times already, but does he look legit.  Statcast says what we’re seeing is based in reality…

Paul Sporer: I definitely think we’ve become overly-reliant on Statcast profiles wherein some wouldn’t believe in Peña without a blood red set of Statcast bubbles, but I’m in on him. While he almost certainly won’t maintain a 159 wRC+, I think we are clearly seeing why HOU wasn’t afraid to sit out the SS free agent market

Kev: Should i start Logan Webb today in COL?

Paul Sporer: I meeean, you know what you’re signing up for. The downside is probably more painful than the upside is helpful

Mario Mendoza: Avisail Garcia has amazing exit velo still, but he is whiffing all over the place. Do you think he can get back on track

Paul Sporer: He can, yes. Whiff guys are uber-volatile. And with him, Sanchez, and Soler, there can be some killer ebbs when they’re all whiffing together, but the flows can be fruitful once they dial in (we’ve seen Sanchez dialed in a bit at the outset of the season and Soler still has 7 HRs… just not getting base hits to fall).

Aaron: How high can you sell Taylor Ward at this point? Or are you just straight holding?

Paul Sporer: I’m probably holding, but I’m asking pretty high if I sell. Like an Alek Manoah-level pitcher. I understand if someone doesn’t want to pay, but I agree w/projections that he can be a 140 wRC+ from here on out with upper-teens HRs and some solid chip-in SBs (4-6).

Vince: Asked earlier … Muncy killing me in 10-tm H2H category.  Don’t understand why LAD w all of their resources are still playing him, if still hurt from ’21.  Wong, Rodgers, Estrada on waiver wire.  Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: He may end up with a solid line by season’s end so I’m not victory lapping or whatever, but this is why I didn’t just take him playing in Spring Training as he’s 100% fine and ready to go. Guys can play sub-100%. Hell, I remember one player quoted years ago saying no one is still at 100% by like Tax Day (April 15th). It’s not hurting the Dodgers to let him play and if they believe he’s not worsening his condition and can possibly come outta this and get back on track, it’s understandable why he’s still playing. He is cuttable, tough. I’d take the guys in the order you listed

Kirkland: Dealt Kirk and Detmers for Myles Straw in AL OBP league. (Have Janssen and Heim at C). Ok deal?

Paul Sporer: It’s fine. SBs are expensive, especially in only leagues and Kirk is almost a free asset for you w/the other 2 Cs

Jason: How patient should owners be with Javy Baez? Just dreadful right now

Paul Sporer: It’s concerning. The worst of his traits are being exposed w/a career-low 36% fastballs and 30% sliders tying his career-high. There is some rebound here just as the BABIP regresses, but hte lack of well struck balls is particularly concerning. That ballpark doesn’t help much, either. You know the risk of cutting him in a 10 is that he rebounds and you might regret cutting him, but that’s just the nature of 10s. You’d still be cutting off a small sample, but if you’re running out multiple major disappointments like this, I understand making the move. I’m open to cutting Baez in a 10

New arms: I know you’ve talked about these guys here and there, but could you rank Bradish/Faedo/Silseth/B.Zim?

Paul Sporer: Faedo is starting to miss bats and really show why he was a legit prospect before injuries kinda took over. I didn’t Silseth at all coming into the season, but was duly impressed by the debut like most of us were. Beware of 1st start velo spike (97+), but there is still to be successful for Silseth for sure. Bradish getting waxed by NYY doesn’t bother me too much espec. since the Trevino 3-R HR was pretty lame. BZimm is a finesse guy making the most of his secondaries since his fastball isn’t good. I trust him the least because when projected forward, raw dominance builds the best margins for error. That’s why velo is such a key indicator to overall success. I’d go Faedo/Silseth/Bradish/Zimm

MF Luder: Buy low on Max Muncy?

Paul Sporer: I would not… in case it wasn’t clear from that last response re: Muncy (don’t worry, I know you asked this before I answered this Q, just making sure my stance is clear)

Bandon Brelt: Will Ke’Bryan Hayes ever hit a HR again?

Paul Sporer: One day!

TBD: Has G. Torres shown you enough to gain back your confidence?

Paul Sporer: He’s hitting the ball harder which is encouraging. It’s still just 119 PA so it’s not like he’s 2019 Gleyber again all of a sudden, but he’s worth rostering across the board and can def be a fantasy asset w/this pop. I do still worry about a sub-.300 OBP, though, and how that might cost him PT

Buff: NL only, Voit or Ruf?

Paul Sporer: Voit

Andy: Any reason to be concerned for Yasmani Grandal’s production so far?

Paul Sporer: Feels like prototypical uber-volatile Grandal. He has to be a nightmare in H2H leagues, but us roto dweebs just set it & forget it and we’re usually rewarded with a solid line. I don’t expect much different this year. A 6% HR/FB is doing a lot of work on suppressing his numbers

Kate: What do you make of the Miami closer situation?

Paul Sporer: It’s a mess. I don’t have a strong read anywhere and in situations like that, I generally just go the cheap route if I’m gonna speculate

Dave: Lots of hype around Max Meyer, then two bad outings. Still worth a stash? Will we see him before mid-season?

Paul Sporer: Stashes always depend on league type and roster construction. There are no hard & fast rules as it can be fluid based on your team’s health and needs. If holding him isn’t preventing you from fielding your best lineup, then by all means hang on. They have an open 40-man spot so he doesn’t require a roster move to get the call, but Poteet isn’t too bad and Edward Cabrera is looming, too (Meyer has been better YTD, though).

Werner: Adames got dropped yesterday in my points league w/ K penalty. Is he worth an IL spot over Haniger, Megill, or Baz?

Paul Sporer: Yes I’d take him over Haniger or Baz. Until we really see Baz out there starting, I worry that his fantasy appeal will be scant. I could see mostly relief upon return. The earliest he can even return is about 3 wks, too. Meanwhile, Haniger was an insta-cut for me sadly bc of the severity of the injury and lack of IL spots in leagues where I had him

Bench Spot: I have a bench spot for speculation right now and I am light on MI’s if one were to get injured. Do you lean Lewis or Brujan ROS? I would not be starting Brujan the next few weeks barring injury.

Paul Sporer: I love Lewis, I’m just not sure where he plays if they don’t shift him to OF. I know Brujan has been overmatched in his MLB sample, but I’m not ready to give up on him

Geust: Mike Trout stays healthy this year…right?!

Paul Sporer: Who knows for sure, but 🤞🏻

Frankenberrios: Betts for hader and Urias in standard roto.  Which side?

Paul Sporer: It’s really fair. Lean Betts slightly in shallower formats where that extra spot can be used to scoop someone off the wire and lean the duo in deeper leagues where they can have a bigger impact

Joe: 5×5 Categories, Gary Sanchez, murphy or Heim for Catcher?

Paul Sporer: Heim for sure. I think he is playing his way into 1-C league viability

Total Noob: What does it mean when a pitcher is called a ratio killer?

Paul Sporer: It means he blasts you ERA, WHIP, or both. I generally associate it with WHIP specifically because we called WHIP “Ratio” in my first ever league (ratio of base runners per inning, I guess) and it was really about those guys who had a solid ERA (anything sub-4.00 in those days… sometimes even low-4.00s), but they just hammered your Ratio at like 1.35 or higher. And this was a 4×4 so no Ks. Usually decent ERA/shit WHIP guys are high Ks (think pre-Cy Robbie Ray) which keeps their value stabilized. In 4x4s, these WHIP killers were sneaky bc WHIP doesn’t get as much attention.

Joe: Can Aroldis keep his job ?

Paul Sporer: He’s going to get a decent sized leash, but he didn’t look great in his first 12 outings despite the scoreless 10.3 IP. And now he has 4 straight outings w/runs allowed. The worst part for him is the bevy of suitable alternatives ready to overtake him.

Now, exactly who that will be in an uncertainty for me. Most want Clay Holmes because he’s been so electric. Others cape for Michael King, but it really might be Chad Green. They might prefer Holmes in the fireman and King in the multi-IP stud reliever potentially leaving the job to the reliable Green. He has a 3.20 ERA/0.91 WHIP/25% K-BB rate in 123.7 IP since ’20.

George: Since we’re talking Melendez: Kirk or Melendez ROS (with Janssen getting more time behind the dish in Toronto)?

Paul Sporer: With MM playing daily, I prefer him

Paul Sporer: or I guess it’s probably MJM

Tylor Megill: Was his fast start a mirage or do you think he can bounce back after his IL stint?

Paul Sporer: He raised his ERA 2 runs in that meltdown outing. I realize it sucks and erased most of the great work he’d done, but it doesn’t invalidate the skills displayed in the first 6 starts (and the other 18 last year). C’mon, let’s not overreact. If he gets back healthy, he will be fine!

RAH: Would you trade Juan Yepez for Andres Gimenez?

Paul Sporer: Totally fine if needs align!

sean: gavin lux ever going to move up in the lineup? must roster in 10 team redraft for upside?

Paul Sporer: Probably not to both questions. Lux strikes me as the type that will cycle between a few teams over the course of the season in a 10-teamer as everyone is chasing a hot streak from him.

Senior Spivey: Is Dylan Carlson ever going to show anything? Stay patient, or roll the dice on Vogelbach or (gasp) Eli White (15-team mixed)?

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan of Carlson and was definitely expecting him to build on a solid 2021, but he hasn’t done enough in his MLB career to be a must-hold in 15s. Name value is a doing a lot of the work there because a 102 wRC+, 23 HR, and 4 SB in 881 PA isn’t enough to merit must-hold status IMO

mike: why is eovaldi struggling with HRs with this new ball?

Paul Sporer: A 5-HR inning is pretty anomalous, but so was his 0.74 HR/9 last yr as an 8% HR/FB was the main reason. So while I don’t believe his 3.0 HR/9 & 28% HR/FB this year are his level, I think they are more indicative of his talent level than last year’s marks

James: When will your new starting pitcher ranks be posted on this site?

Paul Sporer: By early next week

Wenger: With LaStella back from IL, is Estrada the odd man out? is he droppable? he has been very usefull so far

Paul Sporer: The beauty (and annoyance perhaps) of SF is that no one is really out of the lineup entirely unless they’re off the team. Estrada & TLS have played together in 2 of the 3 gms since TLS returned so Estrada won’t be completely blocked off. He should remain rosterable in the deeper leagues where he has been picked up. I like TLS more overall unless you just need Estrada’s SBs

Mike: Is Semien a worthwhile buy low?

Paul Sporer: If the price is for a .770 OPS and 18-20 HR player

Justin: Matt Olson not hitting for power so far.  See anything concerning?

Paul Sporer: 4 HR/.190 ISO is totally fine. Hitting the ball on the ground more which lowers his chances for HRs, but the 12% HR/FB is probably a bigger issue

Maris: Edwin Rios rest of season?

Paul Sporer: Meh

Jim Palmer’s Mom: Grayson Rodriguez. When are we gonna see him?

Paul Sporer: Summer

TBD: Are you pitching Dunning against LAA?

Paul Sporer: Not if I can avoid it. I have been actively trying to avoid LAA with any non-aces

Hittfamily: Jeffrey Springs has all of ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP under 3. Rasmussen successfully moved from bullpen to rotation. Think Springs becomes a useful starter?

Paul Sporer: I think so and backed that belief with a Main Event pickup this weekend. I didn’t start him yet, but happy to have landed him

Geust: What do you see on Detmers moving forward?  MiLB numbers were obviously sterling…scouting says 4-5 starter.  Just surprised by the utter lack of K’s…

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure scouting has him as a 4th long-term. I think it’s more about where he is present-day, but there is still 2/3 upside here, depending on how the command comes along. But yeah, I’m also nonplussed by the K output. I was so torn on starting him this week off the no-no, but in the end decided to w/@ TEX on the docket. Should’ve gone with Springs or Kaprielian! The lack of Ks mitigates his upside right and really makes him best for 15s and kinda fringe in 12s. I’d still consider him a team streamer in 12s right now. The development of the Ks might not come this year, especially with an 8% SwStr

Nathan: Nestor Cortes thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Pardon the callout directly, but you’re hardly the only one.. just the one I happened to see. “Thoughts” or “thoughts on” questions need more. Just too vague and I have no idea how to give a useful answer. Please be specific and mention your league size & context so I can give the best answers possible going forward

Paul Sporer: I should’ve done that earlier in the chat, but I forgot

Bobby: Kim or Lux for my MI spot in roto?

Paul Sporer: I lean Kim

Billy: Floro has been unimpressive, should I drop him?

Paul Sporer: You cannnn. That situation remains unsettled, but Floro doesn’t look great right now so I’m OK moving on

Tim: Are you worried about Tyler ONeil

Paul Sporer: i was super out on him coming into the year, so I’m not terribly surprised here. He’s better than a 62 wRC+, but I don’t see a 144 again

M’s Fan: Thoughts on Jarred Kelenic?  What do you feel the issue is?

Paul Sporer: The 2nd question saved you! It’s the swing-and-miss. And we just don’t have much historical precedent for guys fixing swing-and-miss issues like this so I’ve definitely lowered my outlook

Gavin: Christian Walker’s statcast page is crimson. Are you buying his recent surge?

Paul Sporer: Everything is there except the singles. A .213 BABIP is really hurting him and keeping him at .219 AVG, but it should regress w/the way he’s smashing the ball. I’m buying. He is destroying the ball

B. Ryce Hammer: Can we just appreciate that Dylan Cease, of the 97mph heat, has a sub 80mph change up?

Paul Sporer: Annnddd that mustache!

Nathan: RE: “Thoughts on Nestor?” I was pretty vague because I just have so many questions and I’m surprised no one seems to be doing a deep dive on him despite almost a year of dominance from him. Do you expect him to be an elite arm ROS? If not, what do you expect from him? Are you buying, holding or selling?

Paul Sporer: Brilliant command can carry you as long as it holds and that’s exactly what he’s doing right now. Obviously, the .227 BABIP and 8% HR/FB rate will regress and I’m using the 4.06 ERA/1.23 WHIP projections as my guideline expectation. That’s at least a team streamer in 10s and up so while rolling, he’s an all formats/every start guy right now and if he strings a few ugly starts together, we can re-assess to see what’s up. I’m definitely not jumping after the first bad start or anything

Spaul Porer: When are you doing another Twitch broadcast?

Paul Sporer: Tomorrow morning at 9:30am CT, reviewing Wednesday’s boxscores. I miiiight be on after trivia tonight, but it’s not guaranteed so I don’t want to promise that. I do the boxscore show Tu (8:30am CT)-We (9:30am)-Thu (9:30am) mornings and video game streams w/MLB The Show & Out of the Park Baseball 4-5 nights a week and I’ll be live Thu-Fri-Sat evenings with games for sure. https://twitch.tv/sporer

Hunter Jesus: Speaking of mustaches…Spencer Strider just came in and Ked the side on 11 pitches. Dude, and his ‘stache, are filthy.

Paul Sporer: He’s so nasty!!!

Guest: I feel like Nathan is just daring me to write another 2K words about Nestor.

Paul Sporer: Do it! Do it! Do it!! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/nestor-cortes-is-for-real/

Bo: Is A.J. Melendez going to be good enough for a 10 team, one catcher league? Would he be an upgrade over the likes of Keibert Ruiz or Mitch Garver?

Bo: (A.J. should have been M.J.)

Paul Sporer: That trio is definitely close. I think you have to go personal preference/team needs there. Garver is pop, Keibert is AVG, and MJM can be a hybrid of both. I’d probably go MJM, Keibert, Garver

Josh: Stream Silseth v Oakland?  Worried at all that it’ll be the same team seeing him again?

Paul Sporer: I am starting him in the 1 lg I got him. Data says nothing tangible from 2 starts in a row with the 1st not really impacting the 2nd so it could go either way after last week’s gem. I’m willing to take a shot again a weak offense like OAK

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta finish Boxscore Bits (usually gonna be later on Wednesdays based on my schedule) and get it posted! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow morning at 9:30am CT and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

Nicklaus Gaut: Who’s on your Mustache Mt. Rushmore for 2022? I got Nestor (obs), Strider, Cease, and Yastrzemski.

Paul Sporer: Honestly, I think this is perfect. No notes!

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real!