Paul Sporer’s Weekly Baseball Chat – August 10th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! How about that insane night of baseball last night?? Just so many electric games for a random Tuesday in August!!

Terry: Sewald or baustista ROS?  10tewm points league

Paul Sporer: Bautista is the THE guy for Baltimore, whereas Sewald is more like a 85-90% guy

wes: India or Segura ROS in a 5×5 12’er?

Paul Sporer: Segura for me. Not 100% out on India despite the tough year, but just have always loved Segura

Lonnie: You buying Detmers’ recent performance?

Paul Sporer: Big time. I even remember mentioning in a Fireside Chat w/Nick when we discussed him that he could be a big summer breakout. I was drafting him in case he broke out immediately, but I ended up cutting him during the demotion only to see him breakout as I suggested he could lol. Oh well, I knew what could happen when I cut him. But yes, I buy it and think he’s really taking a step forward

Owen: Torkleson or Casas long term?

Paul Sporer: Still Tork for me. Brutal start to his career, but I’m not moving off him

Mike: How do you see Tatis performing once he returns? Do you expect there to be a lack of power with the wrist injury?

Paul Sporer: Generally would plan for a bit less power, but the unicorns do stuff differently. Remember we thought Acuña wouldn’t steal coming off the ACL and he has 31 attempts in like 75 games! Still plan conservatively, but I won’t be at all surprised if Tatis is insane

Mr. Fister: Vaughn Grissom worth an add in 12 team 5×5 roto?  Would be replacing an ice cold Luis Gonzalez SF.

Paul Sporer: I’d take the shot! Grissom has been electric in A+/AA so far and let’s see if he can stay hot in the majors. Worst case is you hold for a couple wks and move on if he doesn’t pop

Insert Witty Name Here: Wtf to do with Hader? In a saves/holds league should I see about selling low and grab Luis Garcia, Neris, or Poche off the wire?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK grabbing Garcia in case they give Hader a breather, but I’m still not quitting Hader

Ian Anderson: What’s my long term outlook?

Paul Sporer: He will go as far as the control allows. It has been an issue throughout his first 266 IP, but it didn’t start biting him badly until this year.

Nick: What do you think of the Lodolo/Sale comps? Does he have that type of upside in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to avoid w/the slingy lefties even though I know some people are like make ANY other comp but Sale for a lefty, lol. I love Lodolo and see major upside for him. He CAN reach Sale’s heights, though an ace outlook is always the low-percentage potential outcome and that park could cut into Lodolo’s performance a bit as he figures it out in these first couple MLB seasons

Tim: Any concerns with McClanahan regressing?

Paul Sporer: No, not really. It’s suuuuper difficult to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA. Sucks that he dropped a mediocre one at DET of all places, but he’s still been elite as elite gets

Mr. Fister: I recommended to my friend that he play Logan Gilbert this week with a double start.  I felt like he was a must start, even with his recent struggles.  My friend’s ratios are now trashed in a week that is crucial to his playoff push.  How do I make it up to him?  Was my advice terrible just because of him having a start against NYY?

Paul Sporer: Oh I started him, too, and never thought twice about it. NYY has spoiled his ERA a bit, but I stand by the process of starting him even w/that tough matchup

wes: Pena back to JAG after the hot start and injury? Barrels and max EV still nice and good lineup but tough results. thinking of trying Grissom at UTIL in 12’er

Paul Sporer: It’s been rough, but as you mention the pop has still been there. Since 7/1: .202/.228/.364 – objectively bad, but still 6 HR in 136 PA (31 full season pace). .217 BABIP really hurting while K and BB rates still holding while power metrics are there, too, so I’m not panicking. Is there ANYONE else you can cut for Grissom? I like taking the shot on him, but I’m reluctant to move on from Peña, even in a 12

Will: How would you rank Doval, Munoz and Bednar in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: In reverse order of how you’ve listed them

Barnsy: Will Matt Barnes find his way?

Paul Sporer: Not really, he’s just never had anything close to consistent command

Joe: Why is Connor Joe sitting?

Paul Sporer: Iiiiice cold since July: .149/.265/.253… the .200 BABIP is definitely hurting him most here as his hard hit rates and plate skills are still fine. They should let him play through this, but they’ve decided not to

holds are important too: can we only ask fantasy questions td? or are general baseball ones ok too

Paul Sporer: All baseball… real life, fantasy, video games… any of it as long as it’s baseball!

John: Is Grandal officially cooked? I have him on my bench in case the power comes back but it’s looking almost impossible at this point.

Paul Sporer: Probably for this year as there’s just no juice in the bat. Could see myself buying on the cheap next year if we get some assurance that’s healthy once again, but I’ve lost a lot of hope for the remainder of ’22

Langerhans has mcclanahands: Long term Tucker or L Robert?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big time Tucker stan

i love mets but dont wana jinx: Mets v Dodgers pennant. whos coming out? both red hot, esp mets. dodgers offense more reliable than mets but mets starting pitching is so powerful

Paul Sporer: If the Mets rotation is full strength, I’d give them a slight edge

DW: Your level of confidence in Singer against the Dodgers on Sunday.  Start or bench?

Paul Sporer: I avoid LAD, HOU, and at COL with any non-ace. It’s not even that I don’t think Singer – who I quite like – can find some success, but I’m trying to avoid the 10-run bomb and those are the 3 most likely scenarios where that can happen. at NYY isn’t great, either, and I try to avoid it, too.

Bill: Vaughn Grisham worth a flyer?

Paul Sporer: Yes, mentioned him earlier, but that was before everyone was here so decided to throw another one just to put a cap on Grissom: dude was DOMINATING A+/AA prior to the call up and I’m open to taking a shot in most formats, especially if your offense is struggling and you’re hoping to find lightning in a bottle

Phil: How about Elly De La Cruz coming on strong in dynasty leagues! No real question, other than pointing out how fun he has been to follow this year.

Paul Sporer: I actually learned about him via OOTP (Out of the Park Baseball) when he developed for the Reds and become a god!! Hit 50 HR 2x, was just a power stud. Now obviously, that’s just a video game and it’s not 100% who he will become – in fact I’ve had sims where he kinda meanders along as a bench/semi-starter type, but I love the talent and definitely would be seeking him out in dynasty formats

Dying in this Kansas Heat: Is there an easy way of sorting a closer’s stats in save situations vs non-save situations?  I have a feeling that Raisel Iglesias non-save ratios would be close to infinity.

Paul Sporer: BRef has the splits – https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=iglesra01&yea… – Iglesias not too much worse in Non-SV sitch

Yasmani Grandal: I am now a two outcome player.  Walks and Ks.  I don’t even swing at pitches anymore.

Paul Sporer: lolololol

Daniel: Is Trout for deGrom even for a 12 tm points keeper?

Paul Sporer: Yes that’s totally fine

Buff: Does Lewin Diaz have a shot at regular PT for the Marlins next year?

Paul Sporer: Yes, definitely has a good shot. I’d be surprised if MIA picked up their side of Aguilar’s mutual option

Freshbasil: I can’t stop comparing Michael Harris to a young Cutch recently. With better defense and less of an eye. Am I wrong?

Paul Sporer: That’s not a bad a comp with the qualifiers, but I’d probably just go toward more of a Carlos Gomez outlook because Harris’ plate skills are SO much worse than Cutch’s. Remarkably exciting player to be sure

Paul Sporer: I’d take Pratto over Walsh for sure. I’m intrigued by Montero, but only at home

McBoatface: Hurting at the corners. Do you think Pratto or Elhuris Montero offer ROS upgrade over Walsh or G Cooper?

Paul Sporer: Whoops, gotta add the question before answer it lol

Nucky: Do you think Kershaw and Bryant are holds or Would you release?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been much quicker to move on from long-term injury guys this year and with so little time left in the season, I’d move on from both in pretty much any mixer

Honkus Wagner: will D May be showing up in your next SP ranks?

Paul Sporer: Yes, since he’s on rehab. Those will be out tomorrow or Friday. Got pushed back a bit bc I got hit with a bout of COVID. Stay tuned for ’em!

The Ghost of Todd Helton: Pasquantino or Torkelson in ’23?

Paul Sporer: I’ll still be on Tork over him, but I am a Vinnie P fan. I can envision some teams with both based on my assumed costs of both

Captain Kirk: What do I make of Alejandro Kirk? He was so so hot in June. He still has great plate disciplin and contact skills. He still hits the ball hard. Looking at Savant, his peak this year corresponds to sweet spot hitting, which does not look sustainable.

Paul Sporer: Feels like standard regression to me off a blazing hot streak. Not panicking or taking him out of the lineup

James: Hi Paul, Thoughts on Berrios tonight and Kopech on Fri.

Paul Sporer: Starting both, but definitely have some nerves even with solid setups – Berrios in BAL, Kopech v. DET. Just can’t sit em for those matchups

Throw the Keys to Dylan Cease: Should I be concerned about Trey Mancini’s PT in Hou?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m not worried. I know he’s played 4/6 so far w/HOU, but I think he’s more of an 80% guy at least (like 5 of every 6)

Paul Sporer: BRB – AC guy is here & I gotta let him in

Paul Sporer: OK back!

jon: Lodolo more than a streamer in 12’ers? SP5/6 type?

Paul Sporer: He’s at least a Team Streamer for me so when I sit him, I just reserve him, I can’t let him back out in the pool right now.

Terry: Is it time to drop Ozuna?

Paul Sporer: Yes, all formats

Guest: Who do you like among E. Cabrera, Lodolo and Dustin May?

Paul Sporer: Lodolo, Cabrera, May. I understand stashing May because he’s electric and could deliver some upside down the stretch, but keep the expectations in check. A TJ returner on a team known for being conservative w/their pitchers could have him in a 2-4 IP range with plenty of relief work.

E: Thoughts on Chris Taylor and Brendan Donovan as deep league all-position bench players? Both seem to be having problems getting playing time. Is it time to drop them both?

Paul Sporer: Taylor is just back from the IL so I think he’s being worked back in and virtually any injury puts him back in full-time. I’m definitely holding him. Donovan is the classic better IRL player than fantasy one. Elite plate skills but no real fantasy goodness

Hdizzle: What’s your ROS on Adell?

Paul Sporer: Should get the full-time burn, but it will be very volatile given those horrendous plate skills. We compared Michael Harris to peak Carlos Gomez… Jo Adell is like late-career Gomez, which isn’t particularly flattering

Hdizzle: It’s Bellinger back?

Paul Sporer: Nahhh, just a good week

Hdizzle: Which of your pitching tiers would Rodon and Musgrove rank in currently?

Paul Sporer: Musgrove is an Ace, Rodon is Must Start – both Top 20 guys

Nucky: Who do you like better Ros Springs or Luzardo?

Paul Sporer: They’re close, but I lean Luzardo. Springs hasssss to face an IP limit of some sort, right?

Perplexed: Charlie Morton is so frustrating.  4-run innings, along with 4 to 5 almost perfect innings seemingly every start.  What causes pitchers to be so prone to big innings?  Is he a 1-2 category pitcher at this point? (Wins, Ks)

Paul Sporer: Mostly command and for Morton, it is usually the performance of the curveball. Yesterday’s outing wasn’t great in BOS, but he’s been pretty much back since early May with a 3.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 123 Ks in 99 IP since May 8th

Gunnar Henderson: Do I get anything more than a cup of coffee this year.  I could help the O’s in their playoff push, no?

Paul Sporer: Sorry was talking to the AC guys before they left

Paul Sporer: re: Gunnar – feels like he can get the call any day now as neither Odor nor Mateo should be blocking him off. I know Odor had the key homer yesterday, but he also had 2 errors. Once Gunnar is up, he’s an insta-pickup for me. 174 wRC+ at AA, 151 at AAA

Honkus Wagner: Cruz or Pena in ’23?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Cruz in that duel

burritoguy: How would you value O’Neill next season? hasn’t shown an ability to stay healthy this year but numbers seem to have turned around since an abysmal/streaky start this year

Paul Sporer: Tyler O’Neill was a major fade for me this year at his price, but now that he’s pretty much locked for a down year (unless he goes HAM the next two mos.), I’m definitely down for the rebuy next year.

Slapshot: Has Max Muncy shown enough lately to warrant being back in my starting lineup, or should I still hold some reservations?

Paul Sporer: While it is just a 2-week run, the pop is there! Hard hit rate up 14 pts to 54% with a 23% Barrel rate. This is probably the best power spike we’ve seen from him this year and hopefully it’s a sign that the elbow is feeling better. I would definitely get him back in the lineup and ride the wave

Guest: Think Cronenworth bounces back next year? Have an offer on the table to get him for a third round pick in our minor league draft next season and wanted your thoughts. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Great plate skills give him a nice foundation, but I do worry about the power output if the ball remains squishy next year. Guys like him with middling power seem to be taking the biggest hit this year especially because AVGs are also down so his best asset has also been undercut. I’m not averse to the trade, but I just want to be clear that he might have another similar season where he’s good enough to start because of the flexibility and decent enough line, but not quite a clear top 100 guy (he’s 116th so far this year)

John: Is Cal Raleigh being overlooked? He looks like a legit top-10 catcher – in both fantasy and real-life…

Paul Sporer: Yes he is!! Hits started to fall a bit more in June/July (.237) and it’s still only a .204 AVG for the year, but he’s 14th among Cs for the year and definitely 1 C viable lately! I love Cal Raleigh: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/boxscore-bits-august-5th-2022/

Service Time Impingement Syndrome: Given that Harris is 21, jumped from AA to MLB and has stuck, can’t we expect improvement in plate skills?

Paul Sporer: Sure, though his minor league plate skills aren’t SOOO much better than what we’re seeing so far in the majors. Love the talent and there is a ton of upside, but gotta be honest about the plate skills we’re seeing and understand that they do have the potential to hold him back

Eric: What can we expect from Josh Jung next year?  Pencil him in as Tex starting 3B?

Paul Sporer: With health, I’d certainly think so. I was SO keen on him this winter coming into the season. Such a bummer to lose most of this season, but he is raking in the minors and should get a cup of coffee! I’d pick him up everywhere upon arrival because he has game-changer potential

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta cap it there! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!