Paul Sporer’s Rest of Season Starting Pitcher Rankings

by
August 30, 2023
Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Here are my rest of season SP rankings. Let’s discuss in the comments if you have further questions about anyone. Obviously standings and situation will change how you manage these pitchers. If you’re chasing, open your window up a bit more… if you’re protecting, don’t hesitate to sit a Top 30 guy v. LAD or ATL (as a random example).

I will still have the Daily SP Chart running, too, so as things change with guys down the stretch, I’ll be able to adjust there.

2023 September SP Rankings
RK PITCHER TM 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB NOTE
1 Spencer Strider ATL x x x 153.1 3.46 1.06 30%
2 Gerrit Cole NYY x x x 168 2.95 1.04 21% Quietly toting an AL-best 2.95 ERA in an AL-high 168 IP
3 Luis Castillo SEA x x x 164.1 3.01 1.00 22%
4 Zac Gallen ARI x x x 173.1 3.32 1.10 21%
5 Tyler Glasnow TBR x x x 86.2 3.12 1.05 25% Health is always the question, but he remains a superstar when on the mound (2.20 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 22% K-BB in the 2H)
6 Kevin Gausman TOR x x x 155.1 3.30 1.18 25%
7 Zack Wheeler PHI x x x 158 3.59 1.08 22%
8 Brandon Woodruff MIL x x x 34 2.65 0.88 25% Looks like himself in 4 starts since being activated off the IL
9 Pablo López MIN x x x 164.2 3.72 1.16 23%
10 Clayton Kershaw LAD x x x 112.1 2.48 1.02 20% Just quietly so incredibly awesome… always misses some time, but elite when you have him
11 Blake Snell SDP x x x 149 2.60 1.26 17% Last yr he had the killer 2H, this yr he’s been elite for most of the yr after just a couple bumps in April (MLB-best 2.60 ERA on the yr)
12 Corbin Burnes MIL x x x 165 3.55 1.09 16% Definitely not at the obscene level of 2021-22, but still one of the SPs I trust most in terms of set-it-and-forget-it lineup placement
13 Max Scherzer TEX x x x 138.1 3.71 1.13 21% The veteran aces were teammates and ranked back-to-back in the last update, now they’re division rivals but still ranked back-to-back!
14 Justin Verlander HOU x x x 123.1 3.06 1.17 14% Ks have ticked up a little bit w/HOU so far (+2 pts to 23%)
15 George Kirby SEA x x x 156.1 3.28 1.03 21%
16 Framber Valdez HOU x x x 161.2 3.40 1.11 18% A couple tough starts in Aug (6 ER 2x) but also a no-hitter and 7 no-hit innings in another
17 Max Fried ATL x x x 53.2 2.85 1.21 19%
18 Zach Eflin TBR x x x 144.1 3.55 1.04 22% Has dropped duds v. some lesser quality clubs in the 2H but always bounces back while maintaing a low WHIP, plenty of Ks, and an AL-high 13 Ws
19 Logan Gilbert SEA x x x 155 3.66 1.05 20% That minuscule WHIP is so valuable, especially w/12 Ws
20 Logan Webb SFG x x x 174.1 3.51 1.10 20%
21 Aaron Nola PHI x x x 167.1 4.30 1.12 20% An NL-high 29 HRs have his ERA up on the year, but the core skills remain great so he never really comes out of the lineup
22 Kyle Bradish BAL x x x 133.2 3.03 1.11 17%
23 Grayson Rodriguez BAL x x x 93 5.03 1.35 16% Don’t let the composite ERA fool you, he’s at 2.83 in 8 starts since his recall and raising his 2024 stock w/each passing gem
24 Freddy Peralta MIL x x x 139 3.95 1.17 21%
25 Justin Steele CHC x x x 144 2.69 1.17 18%
26 Cole Ragans KCR x x x 66 3.27 1.20 20% Yes, he’s a top 30 guy for me ROS — it’s a small sample, but it’s hard to fake a 27% K-BB; his 1.73 KC ERA will likely rise but he’s an all-formats must start right now
27 Jesús Luzardo MIA x x x 143.1 3.77 1.25 21%
28 Joe Ryan MIN x x x 131 4.33 1.15 24%
29 Lance Lynn LAD x x x 150.2 5.56 1.38 18% Sometimes just going from one of the worst situations to one of the best is all ya need (2.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 16% K-BB in 31 IP w/a 4-0 W-L)
30 Bobby Miller LAD x x x 87.2 4.00 1.19 15%
31 Sonny Gray MIN x x x 150 3.06 1.19 16%
32 Kodai Senga NYM x x x 136.1 3.17 1.24 17%
33 Eury Pérez MIA x x x 74 2.68 1.04 23% Will his IP be managed down the stretch? If I felt confident he’d go every 5 days w/out incident, I’d probably have him 10 spots higher
34 Tarik Skubal DET x x x 50.1 3.93 1.07 24% Built back up and now has 3 straight 6 IP outings w/just 7 total ER and 23 Ks in the 18 IP
35 Julio Urías LAD x x x 112.1 4.41 1.11 20%
36 José Berríos TOR x x x 158 3.70 1.22 15%
37 Andrew Abbott CIN x x x 88.2 3.35 1.22 18% Sept. 1 Addendum: I agree w/the comments that he’s too high. I didn’t deep-dive him and definitely underrated his recent struggles. I see him more in the 50s… speaking of the 50s, go check Paxton for another addendum.
38 Tanner Bibee CLE x x x 119.2 3.01 1.20 16%
39 Bryan Woo SEA x x x 65 4.15 1.17 18%
40 Bryce Miller SEA x x x 101.2 3.90 1.04 18%
41 Graham Ashcraft CIN x x x 140.2 4.73 1.37 9% Really shows the length of the season as he was persona non grata in May/June, getting crushed every other start… but he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his L11 starts
42 Aaron Civale TBR x x x 102.1 2.64 1.11 14%
43 Sandy Alcantara MIA x x x 176.2 4.23 1.21 14% Still not ’22 Sandy or anywhere near it, but down to a 3.22 ERA in his L12 after those B2B 5 ER outings in late-June
44 Jordan Montgomery TEX x x x 152.1 3.19 1.20 16%
45 Brayan Bello BOS x x x 131 3.57 1.28 13%
46 Eduardo Rodriguez DET x x x 117.2 3.21 1.11 18%
47 Carlos Rodón NYY x x x 37.2 5.97 1.41 8% Not blindly starting him across the board, but I still lean toward him in most scenarios especially after 2 solid starts since his latest IL return
48 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI x x x 141.1 3.31 1.20 16% Just don’t let him face the Dodgers
49 Seth Lugo SDP x x x 115.1 3.67 1.22 18%
50 Michael Wacha SDP x x x 101.1 2.84 1.11 14%
51 Yusei Kikuchi TOR x x x 139 3.63 1.23 19% Broke his HR-free games streak at 7, but still just 1 HR in his L8 leading to a spicy 2.36 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 21% K-BB in 46 IP
52 Gavin Williams CLE x x 65 3.46 1.28 15%
53 Kenta Maeda MIN x x 78.2 4.69 1.21 22%
54 James Paxton BOS x x 94.2 3.99 1.26 17% Sept. 1 Addendum: He looks like a complete mess right now, I wouldn’t start him anywhere after a 3rd straight dud
55 Lucas Giolito LAA x x 153.2 4.45 1.28 16%
56 Hunter Greene CIN x x 80 5.06 1.53 19%
57 Chris Sale BOS x x 77.2 4.75 1.18 23%
58 Chris Bassitt TOR x x 157.1 4.00 1.23 15%
59 Charlie Morton ATL x x 147.2 3.29 1.36 15% Definitely a start for the Wins chasers as long as his bad WHIP won’t cost you multiple points
60 Cristopher Sánchez PHI x x 70.1 3.33 1.01 19%
61 Kyle Hendricks CHC x x 104.1 3.80 1.14 12%
62 Jon Gray TEX x x 137.2 3.79 1.21 13%
63 Hunter Brown HOU x x 133 4.47 1.33 19%
64 Mitch Keller PIT x x 163.2 4.01 1.25 19%
65 Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 TOR x x 24 2.25 1.00 15%
66 Dean Kremer BAL x x 150 4.20 1.28 14%
67 Brandon Williamson CIN x x 98.2 4.20 1.24 13%
68 Clarke Schmidt NYY x x 129.2 4.51 1.32 16% Even w/the 8 ER blip at ATL (which should’ve been sat anyway), he has a 3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 15% K-BB in 90 IP since May 15th
69 Mike Clevinger CHW x x 97.2 3.32 1.23 11%
70 J.P. France HOU x x 116 3.49 1.29 11% Rebounded from the 10 ER dud v. BOS and should be viable down the stretch
71 José Quintana NYM x x 47 3.26 1.34 8%
72 Ryan Pepiot LAD x x 9 2.00 0.78 29% If this newfound control is legit, there is massive upside down the stretch here
73 Jordan Wicks CHC x x 5 1.80 0.60 44%
74 Braxton Garrett MIA x x 134 3.96 1.17 21%
75 Reid Detmers LAA x x 120 5.03 1.38 17% Detmers/Cease feel like lefty/righty versions of the same scary starter that can drop a double-digit K gm or bomb your ratios w/5+ ER and a 2.00+ WHIP
76 Dylan Cease CHW x x 142.1 4.81 1.46 16%
77 Logan Allen CLE x x 107.1 3.61 1.35 13% Beware of that WHIP, sometimes the sub-4.00 ERA guys w/a bad WHIP get more leeway than they deserve
78 Bryce Elder ATL x x 149.1 3.50 1.21 9%
79 Alex Cobb SFG x x 141.1 3.57 1.30 15% Might worth getting a longer break after chasing the no-no, but never looked labored in the 131-pitch CG
80 Wade Miley MIL x x 93.2 3.17 1.14 9%
81 Cristian Javier HOU x x 131.1 4.66 1.31 12%
82 Zack Littell TBR x x 58.2 4.45 1.21 17% We love discussing Cardinals Devil Magic, but what about Devil Rays Magic? Zack freakin’ Littell as a viable starter down the stretch?!
83 Luis Severino NYY x x 81.1 6.64 1.66 10% Slowly creeping back on the radar, this weekend’s start v. HOU will go a long way toward determining my confidence level for the stretch run
84 Michael Lorenzen PHI x x 137.2 3.73 1.14 12%
85 Miles Mikolas STL x x 158.1 4.66 1.30 12%
86 Zack Thompson STL x x 39 3.92 1.54 17% Sneaky solid lefty could be a nice streamer in September
87 Patrick Sandoval LAA x x 123 3.95 1.43 9%
88 Kutter Crawford BOS x x 101 3.65 1.09 19%
89 Kyle Harrison SFG x x 9.2 1.86 1.14 33% Beautiful outing v. CIN on Monday night shows the upside, but I still Cease-ian volatility that makes him a bit dangerous in crunch time
90 Taijuan Walker PHI x x 142.1 4.05 1.31 10%
91 Dane Dunning TEX x x 136.2 3.36 1.21 12% Doesn’t dominate the opposition, but regularly gets the job done and I tend to start him in a lot of spots
92 Jack Flaherty BAL x 129.1 4.73 1.55 11% WHIP is sky-high w/BAL, be careful!
93 Javier Assad CHC x 79 2.96 1.20 9%
94 Griffin Canning LAA x 98.2 4.38 1.23 20%
95 Reese Olson DET x 72.1 5.10 1.27 17%
96 Tanner Houck BOS x 76.2 4.93 1.29 13% Will likely be in the 4-5 IP range so Ws could be tough which puts a lot of pressure on his ratios
97 Brady Singer KCR x 143.1 5.15 1.40 13%
98 Kyle Gibson BAL x 158.1 4.89 1.32 13%
99 Andrew Heaney TEX x 127.2 4.16 1.35 15%
100 JP Sears OAK x 140.2 4.80 1.23 16%
101 Dakota Hudson STL x 49 4.41 1.39 7%
102 Paul Blackburn OAK x 84.2 4.15 1.48 15%
103 Tylor Megill NYM x 97 5.29 1.68 8% Gem v. TEX (6 IP/1 ER/8 Ks) has him in the pool of streaming consideration for the stretch run, just be careful getting too confident w/him
104 Cole Irvin BAL x 64 4.78 1.36 13%
105 Matt Manning DET x 71 3.93 1.06 9%
106 Alex Faedo DET x 56 4.98 1.09 13%
107 Josiah Gray WSN x 137.2 4.05 1.48 8% Gray and Gore have had pockets of usefulness this year, but they are tough to trust down the stretch unless you’re in full-on chase mode
108 MacKenzie Gore WSN x 132.1 4.28 1.38 16%
109 Slade Cecconi ARI x 21 2.57 0.90 12%
110 Andre Jackson PIT x 36.2 4.91 1.23 18% Has quietly reeled off a 3.32 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 19% K-BB in 19 IP w/PIT giving him some keeper consideration
111 Johan Oviedo PIT x 154.1 4.20 1.28 11% It’s been a solid building block season which should wind up w/30+ starts
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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GreggMember since 2020
1 year ago

Nice list, Paul. Appreciate you putting 100% effort for all 162 games of the season. Just a few thoughts:

I don’t quite get the Bradish ranking. 3.90 SIERA with 24% K rate isn’t worth the 22 slot in my opinion. It would be interesting to read Paul’s thoughts on that one.

Woo also looks too high simply because I have concerns over his workload down the stretch. He pitched 6 innings earlier this week but that was only with 69 pitches. I’m guessing most of the time we’ll see 4-5 IP/start.

Cobb on the other hand is probably too low. I understand the WHIP concerns but he’s terrific at home and can pitch deep into games to get wins. I think he will have a hangover in the next game due to the high pitch count yesterday though.

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