Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 6th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Seth: How would you rank Ty Rogers, Alzolay, and Estevez down the stretch in a S+H league

Paul Sporer: Alzo, Ty Rog, and Estevez

Emmet Sheehan: Picked him up in a 12 team NL only. Should I get excited now that he’s going to get some consistent run? Looked good against the Braves. Him or Pepiot ROS?

Paul Sporer: I got excited when I picked up Pepiot a couple wks but I also picked up Sheehan this weekend bc it looked like Pep was up in the air. Now both are penciled into the rotation. I lean Pep between the 2, but they’re both worthy, especially if you’re a wins chaser like me right now

ET Phone Home: Is Jasson Dominguez going to be a solid keeper after this season? His tools are out of this world (see what I did there?) but he’s only 20 and his hit tool isn’t as strong as his power/run. Will he hit for enough average to be a viable keeper?

Paul Sporer: Entirely depends on settings and how many keepers, but yeah I think you want to keep a profile like that given the massive upside unless it’s like a 2-keeper 10-teamer

Cole Ragans: Am I the second coming of Randy Johnson?

Paul Sporer: but better!

Insert Witty Name Here: Thoughts on Bohm or Stott for next year? Their power output isn’t great, but they seem to have a great hit tool, and as they get older and stronger more balls should be going out.

Paul Sporer: I think both are fine as-is while also having a tinge of power upside given their age & experience. I really like both, especially Stott w/that great SB contribution!

Guest: how nervous are you about Max ROS? can’t do anything about it except hope it’s actually nothing, but it’s pretty damn ominous

Paul Sporer: Very but yeah, at the same time, I’m still starting him

KeBryan: I know he hasn’t lived up to the hype this season, but he’s been on somewhat of a tear recently. I’m going to draft again next season regardless because I’m loyal, but is there more belief now that he’s finishing strong?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Ke’Breezy stan so I’m loving these Aug/Sept. HRs as Justin and I had a big convo about his power growth this year and I really believed he could double his 2022 output. He’s now 2 HRs away from that. I don’t see this surge raising his price too much, either, so I, too, will stay bought in for next year as well!

Tyler Wells: Am I at all useful ROS? Velo up in AAA but still a ton of red flags

Paul Sporer: I cut him quite a while ago, but that’s bc NFBC just has 7 reserves (no IL, no prospect spots) so it’s hard to keep someone in the minors. But unless he gets any starts, I can’t see much use the rest of the way this year

Bruce & E Street: Drop Bryce Miller ( tough schedule : TB,LAD,Tex,Astros) for Reese Olson(CWS,Reds,LAD,Clev)

Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s absolutely the kinda move you make in September

Guest: Is Thairo Estrada worth a continued roster spot this year when no one is within 15 SB of me in either direction in a 6×6 OBP/SLG? He’s also about 4% of the budget to keep next year, which looked pretty good before the injury…

Paul Sporer: He held up very nicely this year, he was definitely someone I missed as I saw some regression coming. I would probably look elsewhere if SBs aren’t your big need, though, as he’s unlikely to hit more than a homer or 2 the rest of the way

Colton: The Cutch news puts a super sour taste in my mouth. I sincerely hope this isn’t the end for him but it’s looking like that unfortunately. Baseball is better when he’s playing

Paul Sporer: Suuuuch a bummer. Was watching when he got hurt and it def looked like it was going to be at least an IL stint. Could see him ending on a high note as he was pretty good this year, but I hope he sticks around, too

Chip: Is there a universe where you start Wacha tonight against PHI?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s been an excellent and I’m a longtime fan so I have bias toward him. That said, I wouldn’t just start him bc I like him… I think he can and will pitch well, even in a tough matchup.

Seiya: Can the real Seiya please stand up for more than a month?

Paul Sporer: I’m going back to the well in 2024. I really think a fully healthy Seiya is a total stud. I was so bummed when he suffered an oblique injury in spring this year as he was someone I drafted a ton throughout the winter

Lane Thomas: I am massively overperforming basically all my xStats – am I going to come crashing down to earth next year, or be the fantasy monster that leads a new team surrounded in the lineup by James Wood, Dylan Crews, et. al.?

Paul Sporer: I loved Lane last yr and whiffed, didn’t buy back and now have to watch him dominate this year!! the BABIP is way up, but the core of his skills are still the same and he’s just getting the best of this profile. this is very much in line with what I thought he could do last year when gassing him up (though maybe w/the HR & SB flipped). It’s probably best to just take something in the middle like .260/20/13 or something. I’m unlikely to buy if the price surges too high, but he could be the kinda guy who doesn’t get pushed too far up the board as he’s a little hidden in Washington

Guest: What do you expect out of Kershaw ROS now that he’s pitching injured?

Paul Sporer: I still expect him to be startable. I know yesterday was meh and I can’t blame anyone for laying off if they’re in a precarious spot w/the ERA & WHIP and a dud from him could kill their season.

Chip: True or False – It’s pretty inconsiderate of Trea Turner and his wife to have a child in the middle of September when he’s heating up and I need him to get me into the top 3 in my league.

Paul Sporer: lololol incredibly!!! how dare he!

Paul Sporer: At least he gave you the month from heaven before taking a few days for the new baby!! .366/.400/.786, 12 HR, 32 RBI, 26 R, 4 SB in his last 120 PA

B’ryce Hammer: One more ? re. potential championship week:
am I right in thinking a 2 start GRod is better than 1 start Verlyman vs Triple A Oakland?

Paul Sporer: It admittedly took me a sec to figure who Verlyman was… only my favorite pitcher ever, lol. But yes, 2 Grayson Rodriguez starts is better than 1 Verlander one for me

Skenes: With the news of him being shut down this season, what do you think his 2024 outlook will be? Late summer call up after they inevitably trade off whatever vet pitcher they sign to a 1 year deal?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d bet on a summer call-up of some sort while recognizing that he has the skill to destroy that timeline and be up before Memorial Day if things really pop off. I love Skenes!

Guest: https://twitter.com/JMackeyPG/status/1699456806785892815

Paul Sporer: Atta baby, Cutch! Let’s see if we can get some of their opponents to schedule Furry conventions when Pittsburgh visits next year to give him the best going away season ever (IYKYK)

Ron Hassey’s Gigantic Face: Any word as to why Keller had his start skipped today?

Paul Sporer: I can’t find anything but maaaann it sucks to see him get moved to an ATL start!

John Olerud’s Helmet: Mr Paul,How goes it sir?! AL only league I need Ks but also need help in ERA and WHIP. Do I keep running Cease out there?

Paul Sporer: Oh mannn… I think ya gotta w/a 2-step next week (KC/MIN, both at home)

Rickey: would you chase Matt Manning, with the nice two start next week? Hed be replacing Jon Gray or Bello, at least for the one week. Or is Manning mostly just getting fortunate these past few weeks?

Paul Sporer: Bello is also lined up for 2 next wk while Gray has a trip to TOR so I can see going for Manning over Gray. Manning really hasn’t shown standout skills despite good results so there’s always risk, but I like him more than Gray next wk

Gameface: Hi Paul, in 15-team 5×5 dynasty I must drop one of: E. Tovar, M. Vargas, J. Wiemer, L. Butler, or P. Meadows. Who would you boot? Thank you again.

Paul Sporer: Probably Butler. I like him, but Oakland isn’t getting much better any time so he’ll likely continue to lag in R/RBI enough to make him the worst option here

Farhandrew Zaidman: In his postgame interview, Kershaw said “I feel fine” five times in two minutes. Feels like conclusive proof that he does not, in fact, feel fine.

Paul Sporer: fine… a word with 29734938274 meanings and you never truly know which one the person using it means lol

leo: you rolling with grayson next week vs stl?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes

B’ryce Hammer: Oh man! Have I got a dillema for you Paul!

H2H, points league, assuming I’m making the final next week…

Which of these three rides the pine for me? C.J. Abrams, Royce Lewis, Ke’Bryan Hayes?

Paul Sporer: Oh wooow, that’s tough! It might be Abrams just bc the weekend is v. the Milwaukee aces (Burnes/Woody/Peralta). All 3 have 7 games, so we’re splitting hairs here.

Chip: While Schanuel was a fun distraction from the rest of the tire fire that is the Angels, he can’t keep up this production, right? He just doesn’t hit enough balls in the air.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I mean a 63% GB rate is unsustainable. We’ll have to see if he’s really THIS GB heavy next year before really assessing him

The Big (BIG) Red Machine: Does Cincy have far too many players for positions? What a buzzy, young team. There isn’t a more exciting young team in baseball, but they have so many mouths to feed. I wonder if they’ll trade India, or if I should just draft their entire offense as my fantasy offense next year.

Paul Sporer: They might make a move or 2 in the offseason, but having depth is a huuuge asset for teams so there’s no need to really slim it down. Keeping guys fresh and having legit backups is a big plus

Guest: Pollack seems pretty worried about Wheeler vs. the Braves. I know they’re absurd this year but those are starts even with some ratio sensitivity, right?

Paul Sporer: The Braves are terrifying for anyone but I can’t envision sitting him anywhere

Kyle: Safe to say that Pepiot will join the LAD rotation going forward?

Paul Sporer: Nothing is ever safe to say w/the Dodgers, but I feel good that he will be there for the rest of this season at least and then join the pen in October

Does Chewbacca use TP?: Are you going to rank Gunnar or Volpe higher next year?

Paul Sporer: Probably Volpe by a little. I don’t really believe he will be an AVG lag year-in, year-out and he’s the more dynamic power-speed option.

Insert Witty Name Here: When my wife says she’s fine, I know EXACTLY what she means by it. I f***ed up somewhere.

Paul Sporer: lololol yes there are some “i’m fines” you don’t want to hear from your significant other!

Darryl: Are you rolling with Littell tomorrow vs. Seattle? 12-team H2H playoffs.

Paul Sporer: That one is dicey, it’s a coinflip in 12s. 7 HRs in his L5 have been a big reason behind the 5.53 ERA. I might look elsewhere for a better spot

B’ryce Hammer: FINE – Freaked out, Insecure, Neurotic, Emotional

Paul Sporer: lol we’ve all been there

Paul Sporer: I’ve definitely dropped some I’m fines when I’m very un-fine

The Rockies Fam System is Constantly Mismanaged: Adael Amador looks like a future star, and in Colorado no less. But he’s only 20. How confident are you that they won’t call him up until he’s 23, play him part time until he’s 26, and give him a full time job at 27?

Paul Sporer: LOL the dumbest possible path is ALWAYS on the table for Colorado. But they committed to Tovar this year at age-21 so that’s encouraging. Hopefully the turn over the double play combo to him & Amador next yr and just let it roll!

Paul Sporer: I gotta check out a little early, y’all, I have a doctor appointment

Panik! At the Disco: I’ve locked down No. 1 seed in H2H 12-teamer playoffs so I’m looking to fine-tune my SPs for the playoffs. (I also have more than I need): Who’re the most cuttable two on a staff of Eflin, Joe Ryan, Bryce Miller, Eury Perez, Tarik Skubal, Berios, Littell, Grayson, and Paxton? I could also mix it up with guys on the wire like Pepiot, Sheehan and Wicks.

Paul Sporer: I think you gotta put ’em all in a spreadsheet and map out the matchups. Except for Paxton, cut him. I can’t envision starting him anywhere the rest of the way

Farhandrew Zaidman: https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1699485159400051194
Highest stuff+ in the WBC, man throws 97 mph invisiballs.

Paul Sporer: Let’s go!! I can’t wait to talk to Tim McLeod about him at First Pitch Arizona. He knows the JPL and KBO very well!

Paul Sporer: Alright, I have to get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!