Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 24th, 2025 SEASON FINALE!

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all, thanks for coming out!!

bb: What are we doing with Adley next year?

Paul Sporer: This is definitely one of those where the price will be the key indicator. He was the 11th catcher off the board in the Meatball draft (11 rounds of a 15-team 5×5 roto draft that WILL be played out) with only Kirk and Basallo going behind him in those 11 rounds. I don’t hate that price, but I’m not chasing him down next year. This is now 1000 PA of league average work and while that’s not terrible, the catcher pool is getting deeper so I might just want other Cs in his price range or a bit ahead as I’m not against paying up for catchers.

He did finish 6th on the Player Rater last yr with a solid 19 HR/79 RBI/.250 AVG yr  which is around what Yainer Diaz has done this year (19/68/.256) and he’s 12th on this year’s PR so that’s a little microcosm of how the field have improved while Adley’s regressed even further. His name will keep him from going super cheaply, too, as every room will have at least one believer

Schilling & Pence: Why was every sit/start decision I made in my home league this year wrong?

Paul Sporer: I’ve certainly gone through funks like that where every stream I line up – hitting and pitching – just comes in with a 10th percentile outcome for seemingly 6 weeks. In the end, it’s usually not that we’re making EVERY wrong move, but rather that some key ones are REALLY sticking w/us and stacking up in our head as a problem.

Now, sometimes there is a process issue worth investigating. If you’re finding similarities across the streaming misses, it could be that the process needs tightening. Are you chasing hot hands and always catching the rotten end? Are you missing splits on particular pitchers that are making seemingly good-looking streams actually more dangerous? Etc… It’s probablyyyy just a tough year, but don’t be afraid to question your processes and see if you’ve fallen behind your competition

Paul Sporer: The queue is expectedly light because a) I was late and b) it’s the last week of the season. My apologies on the former, I was doing physical therapy for a neck injury, but the latter I cannot help and totally understand. I will likely take a couple week break from chats in October before we get back into the review grind. I’ll hang around a bit longer to see if we get a few more Qs!

Paul Sporer: During this downtime I will thank all of y’all for coming out, both live and those who read later! I learned this year that there’s a decent collection of people who really enjoy the transcripts after the fact and that’s awesome!

Guest: do you know if yahoo games for hitters works like innings for pitchers? ie, if there are 2 UT spots and I only have one game left there Sunday, I’d still get both?

Paul Sporer: That’s a great question that I do not know and maybe someone else here who plays at Yahoo could answer for sure. I can see the innings thing being hard to cut off where they actually hit the limit if 4-5 guys are throwing a day, but games played might be easier to police and thus not count. That said, all games start at the same time on the final day so maybe they let ’em all in!

Pedro: Best choice for 2B-eligible hitter over last four days — H2H 12-team OBP/SLG: H. Kim, Kody Clemens, Xander Boegarts?

Paul Sporer: Sorry y’all I got a phone call that took foreverrrr

Paul Sporer: I owe y’all another 15, thanks for filling the queue, too

Paul Sporer: Gimme Kim on that 2B-elig. guy. Very interested to see what his 2026 looks like. I’m gonna be buying some Kim shares in my Draft Champions leagues during the fall

Guest: What do you expect from Jakob Marsee next year? I am crazy to put him in a keeper slot for $3 on a 260 budget over a $47 Tatis, $1 Laureano, $1 Mayer, $16 R Saurez or $4 Otto Lopez

Paul Sporer: I don’t think you are, especially at that price. He might get exposed next year with full-time, but at $3, it won’t kill you. Meanwhile the upside of being a strong power-speed asset who earns 8-10x that is very much in play. I’m a HUGE fan so I co-sign the move here

billy: last waiver run of the year tonight and I’m trying to stack as many SPs as possible. there’s so much bait and switch with probable starters this time of year, do you have a go-to resource for SP schedule?

Paul Sporer: My go-tos all year are ours: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid and Rotowire’s: https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/projected-starters.php — I cross reference those allll year

Rube: We’re moving to QS from WIN% (!) next year. SVHLD. Had a weekly innings min but WIN% really nerfed the auto-streams. Do you have a sense of if streaming for QS is even effective? Or is really dependent on studs?

Paul Sporer: Your studs are definitely gonna deliver more than your streamers whereas the split w/the Wins was likely closer b/w the 2 groups. Depending on league size, it can be REALLY hard to have many guys who regularly get 6 on the wires, but if you’re in 10- or 12-teamers, there’s still plenty of talent flowing on wires to effectively supplement your QS w/streamers

John W.: Chance the Royals push Jensen into a 60/40 or so timeshare with Salvy, while Perez gets more time at DH and Cags is in the OF? It’s super early but Jensen’s statcast page is a thing of beauty.

Paul Sporer: The goal will be to maximize his PT and that needn’t be done at C both bc of Salvy and the fact that Jensen’s defensive outlook isn’t amazing, so while the DH/1B types are piling up with those 3 and Vinnie P, it’s a good problem to have w/Salvy aging

Yuuuuge: Thanks for doing these, Paul!  These chats have always been an essential part of my fantasy routine.  I didn’t win my league, but we’ll get ’em next year!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! I didn’t do much this year, either, but grinding out a couple 2nds in Draft Champions w/my friend Gregg, but the grind is the fun, too! I love the everyday aspect of it and while I am running on Empty a bit here down the stretch, I’ll miss the grind about a week into October, especially w/what looks like either the worst collapse ever to miss the playoffs or an early exit for my Tigers

Daveed: I’ve got something of a cheap talent C logjam now with A Ramirez, Basallo, and F Alvarez all locked in at great prices in ottoneu. Should I look to move one and if so how to value them? I’m fairly high on all 3, highest on Basallo.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely and this gets to my point earlier about the depth and why I won’t overpay to wishcast w/Adley next year. I like the whole group, but I’d be inclined to hold Ramirez and Basallo. Alvarez might also bring the least so the right deal could pry any of the three from me

Mike Tyson: designated hitter: Random fantasy question.   My league has games played and innings limits.  Ethics of manipulating starts to go past these limits.  Example.  One OF game to play, but starting all three permitted OF slots, which gets you to two over limit.  Example.  Three innings to the innings limit, but streaming six starters to go over the limit.  Cheating, unethical or smart roster management?

Paul Sporer: We were actually just talking about this earlier re: Yahoo! It’s a total strategy so unless your rules ban it (I did play one lg where they banned it despite the platform allowing it), it’s 10000% fair and smart play. I would absolutely stack any volume I could to take advantage of that last day as long as the rules permit and I’d take no guff from anyone calling it out as unethical (again unless explicitly banned, of course)

Paul Sporer: (Cool to say “take no guff”, definitely sounds like someone that’s reallyyyyy gonna do something if the aforementioned guff is given… I should shove myself into a locker!!)

Stream Team: 16 team league with ~100 starting pitchers rostered. Who are your low-end SPs for Saturday-Sunday who might actually be a thing for a day?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t looked into it yet, but I will run a board for y’all on Friday!

Brooks: H2H championship, 5×5 + OPS. Looking for one hitter to stream: Canzone (one more vs COL, but then home vs LAD), Bogaerts (maybe meaningful games), Volpe, Paredes, Spencer Steer, Dylan Crews…decent options but no standout must have. Any advice? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Paredes was awesome before the injury. I was a big believer and feel great about .254/20 in 98 games, it’s a 30-HR pace if he’d have reached last yr’s PA total which is exactly what I was hoping for/thinking he could do in Houston. He has a homer and a couple hits since returning so I lean his way in that group

John W.: Anything we should know about Bryce Teodosio for 2026? Seems like he’s got elite defense and speed but the K% among other areas is a concern. Feels similar to Brenton Doyle a few years ago.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I like your snapshot outlook as kind of a poor man’s Doyle with elite defense giving him a chance to secure PT while he figures out the bat. Great speed should at least give some SBs while we see if he can become anything as a bat. Doyle has Coors helping which is a big boost as Teodosio’s plate skills are worse in a worse park so keep expectations in check. But I don’t mind him as a speed gamble crazy late in DCs over the fall/winter

Guest: which of these players set their permanent career high in HR this season, and which will have a higher year down the road
Carroll
Maikel
Manzardo
Ward

Paul Sporer: Can I just say — claaassic Sporer Year Too Early on Maikel Garcia last year, lol. He still delivered 37 SBs so it wasn’t a 0 zero, but I liked him for some latent power dev last yr and it was just a little more latent than I thought!! I think he’s got 20s in his bat so I don’t even think this is it.

I feel like Manzo could drop 30 easily. I think he can be a more dynamic hitter, too, so I don’t think this .236/.317 AVG/OBP combo is it for him, either. I thiiiink Carroll and Ward set highs this year

Guest: Thanks for chatting.  Why does JRod hate playing baseball before the All Star break?

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL, no idea! He hates cold weather even more than me and thinks even May & June are cold!!

Nick: What do you do with Jackson Merrill next year?

Paul Sporer: Take the discount if it’s right. Of course “right” is subjective. For me, it’s 15-20th OF range or so? He went 27th in that Meatball Draft I referenced earlier, but I think it took place when he was on the IL. Or if it was before, it was when he had a low-700s OPS and a sour taste. It’s now back up to 770 after a 1091 over his last 68 PA so I know the price would rise.

Guest: Is Soto the 1:1 pick next year after his display of SB prowess?

Paul Sporer: If you really believe in them. I believe in what the Mets are doing and think he can be a firm 17-20 expectation which does make 1:1 fair. Just draft for the potential of a return 7-10 bc while the Mets have made tangible changes to make them a menace on the basepaths, teams could counter it and Soto could get a red light.

Now you might say why haven’t they countered it yet which is fair, but with an offseason to study, we’ll have to see if there’s a solution to be found for their excellent leads that have led to the league’s slowest team being legitimately great at stealing bases!!!

Guest: Who could dethrone Skubal or Skenes as the first pitcher off the board?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think taking Crochet or Yamamoto is indefensible.

Paul Sporer: OK we really made something of this! Sorry again for being late, but we got a nice hour plus in after all. Take care, y’all. Thanks again for a great year of chats!! Off for a few weeks to decompress after the season, but back at it in early-November for the diehards!!

Nolan: How much does your opinion on Suarez and Naylor change based on where they end up after the off-season?

Paul Sporer: Sneak one more in — it drives a lotttt!!! Not sure I’d take either in a DC without knowing their spot right now.

Nolan: Any love for Hunter Greene as potentially the best SP?  I know the health makes it unlikely he’d be the first taken in a draft, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a healthy year from him ended up being best in fantasy.

Paul Sporer: Stop asking good Qs! lol

Paul Sporer: Just kidding, but yes he’s amazing. If you really believe he can drop 170+ IP, he has the talent. Actually got into a big debate with him in the center during the SP pod: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1453-re…

Paul Sporer: OK, bye for real. And to the person who just asked about Kurtz sophomore slump as I’m typing this, I think we have to be mindful of it w/him swing-&-miss. That said, he can still rip 30+ in Sactown even if he’s hitting .225. The worry is a send down if things go totally awry and while it seems far-fetched right now, we know it’s not out of the realm. I love Kurtz, but his price is gonna be a SKY HIGH and it might be prudent to fade if it’s 2nd round. Take care, y’all!!!