Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 20th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out with the changed time!

KC Pain: Anyone who jumps out as you as a possible “the guy” next year at any position? For example, the Reds Diaz owning the closers role this year.

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna give Matt Wallner a shoutout in Minnesota. I don’t see any way that both (or maybe even either) Gallo or Kepler return and I think Wallner has a job for next year!

Bruce: Thanks for the chat.  What do you make of Dairon Blanco as a fantasy asset? Seems to be able to steal at will and he hit some in the minors, but the bat hasn’t really clicked so far. At age 30 it obviously now or never for him.

Paul Sporer: He’s been a nice SB asset down the stretch, but I think it’s more of a flash in the pan as opposed to something I’d buy into beyond this year barring him falling into some consistent PT. It has a Jon Berti feel to it, at a lower level

KC Pain: How rough is it to lose 7-5, lose the R category by 1, would win the tiebreaker, but on Friday when Naylor got his fourth hit, they pinch ran for him.  Next hit was of course a HR….

Paul Sporer: OOOOF that is tough, sorry to hear that

KC Pain: Rangers going to call up Wyatt Langford?

Paul Sporer: Maybe if he can throw some relief innings!! Jokes aside, he’s been an absolute monster, spanning 4 levels and currently in Triple-A. I’m not sure there’s room currently

Fleur de (Ado)Lis: Who do you see as the top rookie to go after next year for re-draft leagues?  Chourio, Lawlar, Holliday, Langford, Other?

Paul Sporer: It’ll probably come down to who has the best angle on either breaking camp or getting called up soonest (which is always tough to figure out). Lawlar, of course, is already up though I’m not sure he’s 100% a lock to break camp next year. Chourio is a favorite of mine, though he’s just 19 and peaked at AA so he might be more of a summer callup. I lean Langford on this list

Ed: Are you in on Shane Baz for next season? He’ll be 18 months out from TJ by opening day and I love his skills, but I imagine his innings will be pretty limited.

Paul Sporer: Perhaps a bit since he will be suuuuper cheap IMO. And while I often lean away from TJ returners, the 18-month layoffs are a bit more appealing to me.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Freddie’s the first guy with 25 HR, 55 2B, and 20 SB – means an automatic MVP for being the first guy in a club, right? (/s)

Paul Sporer: LOL yes, that’s the rule! Gonna have to split w/the founder of the 39 HR/67 SB club!

Guest: 14 team league with QS instead of W. In the semis and I am considering dropping Pivetta for Sam Hentges.  Thought ?

Paul Sporer: Piv did get a QS last start, though, right? So I might stick w/him. Is Hentges a holds play or just good ratios?

Carlos Hernandez: Any way Carlos Hernandez is still a $5 keeper in AL Only after being so atrocious as a closer option this last month?

Paul Sporer: No thanks

AL Central Casting: I’m still alive in my playoffs, but can’t help thinking ahead to next year. I’ve built a great lineup through drafting/trading in my 12tm H2H dynasty auction league, but the salaries go up $4/year and these guys are getting expensive. With a $260 budget, what do I do with a $43 Betts, $39 JRam, $39 Tucker, and $35 Olson? Try to keep all and go extreme stars and scrubs? I also have some lower-priced guys that I’m definitely keeping (Castillo at $28, Witt at $18).

Paul Sporer: Depending on your inflation, I don’t mind keeping a lot of that group. And a 12-teamer is ripe for stars/scrubs to begin with so I really don’t mind going for 3 of ’em and maaaaybe even all 4.

Steve: Any thoughts on the potential Japanese pitchers coming over? Really impressive year for Senga makes me think Yamamoto and Imanaga worth digging into

Paul Sporer: I’ll have some more detailed thoughts on them in November, gotta meet w/my correspondent Tim McLeod at the Arizona Fall League. He’s SUPER dialed in and has always put me on the best guys coming over. He had me on Maeda and Tanaka before any hype was developing w/them. Obviously there is more attention on the Asian markets these days, but you can still get bargains. Speaking of Senga, his excellent season has gone a bit under the radar bc the Mets suck

You heard it hear Hjerst: Hjerstad hit another tater yesterday, moving up the line-up. Would he be ahead of Nelson Velazquez/Robbie Grossman in OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. I’m a fan and he a bit off the radar despite being a #2 overall pick bc of his injuries and the depth of the O’s system pushing down the list a bit

guest: is there a starting spot for Davis Schneider with his struggles next year? do i drop him now for Canha as im competing in playoffs this week?

Must-stash?: Davis Schneider is coming back to earth with a big 0-fer run. Has he done enough to get starter status for next season?

Paul Sporer: He was always going to come down to earth w/that .500-something BABIP, lol. I’m open to taking Canha as there could definitely be more regression on the BABIP which is now at .373 through 127 PA. I can see him making the team, but I’d be surprised if he broke camp as a starter

B’Ryce CHAMP!: I won my championship last week in spite of all my trade horror stories! Now I can just enjoy baseball until next year.

Paul Sporer: Let’s gooo!! Congrats!!!

Steve: Had to kick dirt on my poor mets. Steve Cohen will have his revenge

Paul Sporer: lolol I’m sorry!

Farhandrew Zaidman: Gonna dig in a little more on Holliday – seems poised for a 2024 call up, maybe even break camp? What’s your way-too-early fantasy take on him?

Paul Sporer: Stud, I think he’s an absolute G. That doesn’t always mean he’ll be great immediately in the majors, but I’m fully buying in the long-term

Live at the Taj: Taj Bradley looked a little sharper yesterday, admittedly against a AAA lineup. Where will he slot in your ranks for the Toronto start?

Paul Sporer: Streamable but still super risky. He’ll probably get the 15 and 12 x’s on my SP chart w/a note about his heavy risk. Still love him long-term, though

Why not Zoidberg?: Assuage my fears – it’s really unlikely Doval, Hader, and Cano get 6 more saves than Scott, Williams, Iglesias, and Bednar by Sunday… right?

Paul Sporer: That’s gotta be a maaaaaaajor longshot. Not impossible but very unlikely

Why not Zoidberg?: Fwiw, in my 12-teamer I’ve found much more success paying for the dudes than trying to build depth and win the draft when inflation hits anyway.

Paul Sporer: Yeah you want as much star power as possible in shallower leagues bc the waivers are gonna be more ripe to replace the scrubs who don’t hit. 15s and deeper can be better avenues to spread things out a bit

KC Pain: Is Skubal a guy with ace upside?  Ive been really impressed w him when healthy this year.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely IMO. We discussed him on Monday’s pod and gave him quite a bit of love: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1218-ti…

B’Ryce CHAMP!: Jesse Chavez is pitching for Atlanta right now… what a low key awesome career!

Paul Sporer: Right? I looove grind out long-term careers like his

Vierling: Matt Vierling playing 3B was a surprise to me. Is he just hot or is this a breakout?

Paul Sporer: Mostly just running hot. Solid player, though

bb: Nolan Jones a very quite solid season.  Could be a 25-25 guy?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he certainly could be. I think he’s going to get a good bit of offseason love, especially playing in Coors. He K’s a lot, but does so much stuff that even if the AVG is a good bit lower, there’s plenty of fantasy juice

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Sorry again for the shortened chat at a different time, but I had a commitment I had to work around and didn’t want to cancel on y’all! Back next week for our final regular season chat… wow, can’t believe the season is almost done.

Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!