Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 17th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!

Dave: So… uhhhh… the Tigers are going to hang on, right?  Right….?  I was all the way back in for another Gritty Tigs run after the Carp homer last night and then, well… the top of the 10th happened.  And now I am anxious again.

Paul Sporer: I’m also anxious, but yes I think they hold on. The pitching is rickety outside of Skubal, though, just not enough bat-missing. I’m worried the playoffs could be a breezy 1-and-done

Sam: Hey Paul, appreciate all that you do!  Looking at a SS for the last week in a points league. Caballero, Meidroth or Colson Montgomery (been ice cold) or Ha-Seong Kim 김하성?

Paul Sporer: Matchups would play a role and I don’t have them off-hand, but absent a major edge one way or the other, Caballero & Meidroth are my faves there

lwomack58: Does Severino look like a good stream in h2h cat. league. Need QS and ratios protection.

Paul Sporer: Onlyyyy on the road

R(I)P: Hi Paul! Do you have any favorites from the morass of these al only relievers? Fernando Cruz, Whitlock, Sands, Grant Taylor, Sabrowski, Cano, Erceg? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: No one super stands out, I’d dig into the schedules. See who has the most games left and pitched the least in the last 3-5 days. That way you can find the most rested w/the best chance at a lot of appearances

Yor-done: I’ve got Yordan for $37 in an AL only OBP where I keep 4. Is that worth holding? My lead is such that I can probably leave him on my bench for the week without losing, but I wouldn’t mind replacing him.

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to get rid of him, but even harder not to have extreme long-term concerns to the point where he’s not even a lock keep at that price. If the spot can help you secure the title, I’d value that.

And honestly, if someone has to pay the $37 next yr if they pick him up off the wire, you might laying a trap card out there for someone to scoop

Yor-done: (Vladito $35, Bubic $1, Schanuel $4, Pepio $11 are some of my other names.)

Paul Sporer: Def like Vlad/Pep at their prices. I can hear arguments for Yordan over the others, but I’m inclined to just take the cheaper shots w/Vlad as the foundation and go from there.

Yordan will probably be someone who remains a strong plus bat when he plays, but with PA totals in 200-400 range consistently in the coming years. Not fun to have such a negative outlook, but the severe injuries are piling up and he’s 29 next yr

iKon: Can you rank some of the young pitchers for the last starts…Messick (DET), McLean (@MIA), Early (DET)

Paul Sporer: Mac/Early/Mess

BuddyBoshers: Is it finally time to give up on Framber during the playoff stretch of most redraft leagues?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I think so. Seattle this wknd and then a trip to Sacramento doesn’t seem appealing w/the way he’s going. It’s not that he can’t right the ship, but the risk of another dud is too high

Hazmat Corntail: Looking ahead to next year, I have a stack of young SP with at least some upside; would you keep Senga over any of these: Melton, Messick, Henderson

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. Don’t forget, Senga isn’t a baby. He’s 33 next year and looking at about 120 total IP the last 2 yrs. Those rookie arms have their own risks, of course, and they too could get hurt, but I’d take my chances on them (in the order you have ’em or Henderson over Messick perhaps)

smuckles: Do Marsee or Lile have any keeper value?

Paul Sporer: Marsee for sure, IMO. I really think he has massive upside and the Marlins might’ve landed on something big here. He’ll have his ups and downs like any young guy, but loud fantasy skills make him super appealing to me

Keith: Do you try any new strategies this year that you will use moving forward?

Paul Sporer: Not sure it qualifies as “a strategy” v. just plugging a major hole in my game — but I have to address how I draft speed. It was a huge problem across my entire suite of teams which points to me a problem without a doubt and I definitely know it’s because I don’t always land that anchor in the first 3-4 rounds and I’m just not interested in chasing the rabbits (SB-only types with ZERO power) to make it up.

But my stubbornness hurt me too much this year so I just need to lay a stronger foundation in those early rounds. I suspect I’ll come out of the top 10 rounds with far fewer SPs than normal next year as a way of acquiring those SBs. I’ll play the middle rounds with pitching. It’s so damn volatile year after year after year and now the samples we can even get from guys are smaller so outside of a truly bankable ace early, I’m unlikely to have a lot of starters early.

Insert Witty Name Here: Looking ahead to next year, do you think Raleigh could do something close to this again? Who has risen and fallen for your memory bank rankings?

Paul Sporer: I really don’t and it’s nothing against him at all. This is just a magical year. He’ll still be a good home run hitting catcher but I think it’s more “Summer of Cal” than him unlocking a whole new talent level. That said, even if he falls back to 2024 next year, that’s still a great 5-6 WAR player. I’ll probably fade the hype as I’m willing to lose on him if he can stay near this level as I expect something more in the 30s for his HR total with a .225-.235 AVG… still good, just probably not worth what will be what… 2nd and 3rd round price tags?

Yor-Done: Thanks for the thorough response!

Paul Sporer: No problem!

Trevor Rogers: Usual every-start check in for Trevor Rogers. Am I really starting him vs. NYY this week? Toe and all?

Paul Sporer: Allll team dependent now. How much does a dud hurt v. a gem helping. Is 5 ER costing your 4 pts but 6 IP/1 ER is only gaining 1 if he doesn’t get the W or something like that? Then you got your answer. It probablyyy won’t be as cut-and-dried as my made up example, but that’s what you have to ask yourself. He’s been amazing, but coming off injury and facing a brutal opponent makes it a really tough choice

Mike: Is Elly a first round pick next year?  He has been so disappointing over the last month.

Paul Sporer: He probably still will be in 15-teamers, but it’s hardly a lock for me. I will say that despite the struggles, his .264 AVG is a career best! But yeah 19 HR/35 SB isn’t bad but it feels horrendous when you realize it’s 1 HR/10 SB/.231 AVG in 240 2H plate appearances.

Insert Witty Name Here: Got the title locked up, I like to waste all my remaining FAAB on a random player as a victory lap, if you were me, who would that player be?

Paul Sporer: An ace out for the year? lol

Ozzie: Paul, just a lament…3 years in a row in the finals of my H2H league, 3 years losing!!  Gah!!!!

Paul Sporer: Oh maaannn, the trials and tribulations of H2H! 3 straight finals is still awesome, but I totally understand 0 titles stings!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta run. Pardon the late start and quick bounce at 2, y’all kept the queue going for a mid-September chat and I appreciate that! Take care!!