Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 13th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!!

TBD: In the championship, ending next week. Morel or Poland’s at 2b?

Paul Sporer: wait, who’s the other guy? Poland?

mr d: How do you feel about pepiot vs SD today?

Paul Sporer: I’m very pro-Pep. SD is a risk, but I think Pepiot is startable in all formats w/how well he’s throwing

The Kid: No question, just stating it’s pain to lose in the semi finals after dominating all year because your opponent stashed almost every 2 start waiver pitcher this week for H2H points

Paul Sporer: Oh maaaaaaaaan that’s painful. Sorry to hear that!

Kikuchi: would he have gotten tic-tac-toe (X’s across 10 12 and 15) against Texas today? what about if I’m in a roto 0.02 ERA from gaining 2 points and 0.09 ahead of next place

Paul Sporer: He would’ve had tic-tac-toe with a reminder that he’s not a must in shallower formats bc Texas is still really tough. That said, it’s hard to shade him when he has 2 HR allowed in his L10 starts!!

Mookie W: Did you see anything from Rodon to make you trust him going forward? he’s got @PIT, AZ, @KC.

Paul Sporer: The velo was up and I liked the Ks. I think the schedule keeps me invested in Rodon

B’ryce Hammer: So, I traded Olson for Verlander and Vinnie P two weeks before he went bust. Now I’m in my H2H championship against the dude who has my Olson, and Verlander somehow gave up 5! ER to the Oakland Athletics. I think I’m gonna be sick.

Paul Sporer: OMGGGG that’s brutal. Obv love the trade at the time and I share your EXTREME displeasure of JV getting merked in OAK… wtf was that?!?!

ScottTINSTAAPP: really enjoying the Immortal Seasons content in OOTP PT!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! I’ve been having a blast with those cards. I’m running Canseco in Diamond tournies and he is UNREAL for me. He and Semien are my 2 faves for tourney while Satch and Tulo have been great for me in league

Pete: Are you shying away from Kirby (vs LAD) or Eflin (vs BAL) on Friday?

Paul Sporer: Only in full on protect mode, otherwise I’m running both

TBD: Morel or polanco * sorry about that. Thanks

Paul Sporer: Ohhh, OK, no prob!! I’m a little nervous on Morel’s PT. He’s been playing a lot this wk bc of the lefties but will it continue when the lefties dry up

Paul Sporer: So I lean Polanco now that he’s back from bereavement

Who’s Fabio?: He’ll never win but how much ROY love will Davis Schneider get?  How much value has that guy delivered?

Paul Sporer: We have him at 2.4 WAR already!!! It’s like Gary Sanchez where his 53 gms got him 2nd place to Fulmer a few yrs ago. Problem for Schneider is the pool of candidates is muuuuuch deeper so he might get some occasional down ballot votes

Olson for Verlander and Pasquantino: I feel a bit better now about my meh trade record this year

Paul Sporer: We’ve all taken some big Ls… especially on trades that looked good at the moment

Noelvi: Is he droppable in all formats after breaking his nose? Need the steals, but who knows when he’ll come back

Paul Sporer: Yeah he pinch ran yesterday but I’m not sure when he’s gonna be back in the lineup and if he’ll take risks on the bases even when he’s playing again. I’m OK cutting.

Guest: R u throwing Montgomery today @Tor. If he blows it again is he a drop

Paul Sporer: Speaking of getting merked by OAK… yeah, I’m OK taking the shot today but agree that another flop is an easy cut

Tears4Sears: On the flip side of JV merkage was me sitting a Sears QS that I really could have used…

Paul Sporer: Oof!!! The pain of these roster moves in September is so tough bc obviously you’re starting JV v. OAK alllll the time and avoiding Sears so of course they have opposite performances

Roman: Thoughts on using Montgomery vs Toronto today? He’s been a little shaky and my opponent will post more IP than me, so I’m just trying to preserve my ratios and clear the minimum IP.

Paul Sporer: Meant to put both JorMont questions at the same time… I’m a little more skeptical on this one, though, given you situation. I’d lean toward a pass.

CM: Last week, you said you preferred Volpe over Gunnar next year. Do you like Volpe over Gunnar next year because of steals only?  How do you figure in position flexibility in your calculation?

Paul Sporer: Having 3B/SS is nice for Gunnar but not enough to cover the SB deficit which is the primary reason that I choose Volpe. I don’t think he will necessarily trail Gunnar in power and R/RBI as much next year, either, and of course I have Volpe’s AVG rising after this year’s ugly .210

B’ryce Hammer: I also bought low/sold low, Trea for Vladdy 🙁

Paul Sporer: Right before the Trea super surge I presume??? Dang.

diadem: Is Jordan Wicks (CHC0 success sustainable? What is it based on?

Paul Sporer: I like Wicks and I’m trusting him the rest of the way despite his modest 11% K-BB. Strong command and control and high W potential are the drivers for me

Chip: No way you start Christopher Sanchez against ATL, right?

Paul Sporer: Correct. I loved Sanchez for the 2H and I’m happy w/what he gave me, but I cut him this wk as he’s slated for back-to-back ATL starts

Mike: How do you feel about Hunter Brown at OAK tonight?

Paul Sporer: I meeean, I’m definitely starting him, but given how his teammates have done v. OAK, who the heck knows how this will go?! lol

Josiah Gray: Next two starts projected against PIT & CWS. Tell me he can have less than a walk per inning in those two

Paul Sporer: I cannot lie to you!

Kyle Hurt: O/U .5 saves for him ROS including playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Probably under as I’m not sure he can make the playoff roster given when he was called up (though I know there always seems to be a workaround for that rule)

Jax: Would you drop Francisco Alvarez for Varsho?
Cease for Ragans/Javier/Cobb?

Paul Sporer: Prob just holding Alvarez… Cease for Cobb, but more bc Cobb has at COL/at LAD in his next 2 as opposed to any real trust in Cease

Cypher: With the uncertainty around Ohtani… would you pick up India or Bryant in the meantime?

Paul Sporer: Gimme KB

Kyle: Would Dallas Keuchel been your top SP today had you written the SP article? Don’t lie just because you have seen how he’s pitched today!

Paul Sporer: lololololol you caught me!!

Paul Sporer: I had a whole extra essay about his greatness planned out, too!

Farhandrew Zaidman: Did you see Kyle Hurt last night? Dude looks LEGIT, 97-98 with two plus secondaries.

Paul Sporer: Yeah he looked filthy. LA is such a factory. BTW, their bullpen could become a strength in the playoffs as they trim down their rotation… even if they can’t finagle Hurt onto the roster

Chip: Someone cut a cheap Verlander in my Otto league whom I was happy to scoop up.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I co-sign that even despite my anger at the OAK start

Chip: And what about Tanner Houck against the Yankees? He’s not great, but neither are the Yanks.

Paul Sporer: Houck is streamble, but far from a must start

Sam: I’m benching Chris Sanchez vs Atlanta right?

Paul Sporer: 10000%

Carlos Correa Oppenheimer: Is Correa droppable for a streamer at this point? Or would you keep Correa and drop Volpe or Nootbaar?

Paul Sporer: Correa is actually hitting pretty well in September so I’m OK sticking w/him.

Andy Dirks: Paul, which of these potential streams do you like best for the rest of this week: France vs KC , Hendricks vs ARI, any of the three Angels pitching against the Tigers this weekend (Canning, Anderson, Detmers). Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’d probably go Detmers v. my Tigers. Hendricks is probably 2nd despite ARI being a challenge for any SP

Carlos Correa Oppenheimer: Not a question, but having to keep Ohtani on the bench but not in an IL spot during the H2H playoffs is frustrating. Holding strong, but… gaaah

Paul Sporer: Suuuper frustrating

JoeG: I just dropped Sean (I get more days off than I play) Murphy for O’Hoppe is a Deep One Catcher Daily Roto.  Good move or Not Smart ?  Thanks Paul

Paul Sporer: Understandable at this juncture. Wouldn’t OK it in anything but a down the stretch situation like this where you need every PA you can get

Fluffernutter: Polanco or Davis Schneider? I am very skeptical of Schneider keeping it up for extended periods of time, but then again the season is almost over, so maybe he can stay hot the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: Yeah Schneider has a .500 BABIP which has to come down, but as you point out, time might just run out before regression fully strikes. I think I’d just stick w/Schneider!

Ryan: Would you start Bryce Miller against LAD this weekend if ERA/WHIP are right in a h2h?

Paul Sporer: If a dud doesn’t kill you and you just want the Ks & a chance at a win (not a great chance, but a chance nonetheless), I’m OK w/it

Guest: what seems harder to do at this point in a fairly deep 12T roto (13 starting hitters): pick up an RBI per day or lose .005 total OBP?

Paul Sporer: the RBI per day feels a little tougher I think

Guest: too-early 2024 talk: Manny was looking really rough until those 2 HR on Monday … what kind of ADP drop could he be looking at and where would you be in?

Paul Sporer: Weird season where his July is basically carrying his line (1092 OPS, 11 HR) so I think he will drop into the 4th-5th rd area, a totally fair price IMO

Sean: Logan Allen or Taj Bradley better 2 start option next week?

Paul Sporer: Allen isn’t guaranteed for 2 next wk, right? I’d lean Taj w/both at home even if Allen does get the weekend start

Elly: might be winding down for the season batting 7th yesterday and off today?

Datt Mamon: I’ve been putting Elly out there every day because I don’t have many good options as SS, am wondering if you think he’s still a capable choice

Paul Sporer: The Ks caught up to him as suspected. He still delivers fantasy juice (HR/SB) but he’s homerless in his L20 w/a .160 AVG so I understand anyone looking to replace him over these last couple wks. Still love him for next yr

Guest: I can’t believe it but I’m planning to sit Carroll tonight. Steals don’t matter to me at all anymore, homers are my main category need, and he’s at a tough park (Citi) vs a lefty (even Lucchesi, whoa how about that name coming back)

Paul Sporer: Totally get it and ppl need to play to their standings entirely at this juncture even if it means benching studs like Carroll in certain spots

shane: any hope that kris bryant can deliver any value for the ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m a sucker for him and he still has the best hitter’s park ever as his home!

Pete Crow-Armstong: Am i worth a UTIL roster spot in H2H playoffs over a Willi Castro or Davis Schneider.

Paul Sporer: Sure, I’m OK taking the shot. We’ll see if the Ks stifle him in his cup of coffee, but he also had 20 HR/37 SB in AA/AAA so there’s potential heat there

Paul: Concerns about Snell against LA tonight or you locking him in?

Paul Sporer: Always concerns v. LAD, especially given Snell’s shaky control, but I’m still starting him in most spots (ratio protectors can sit for sure)

BILL: Know he’s back in the starting lineup today, but how worried should I be about Goodman’s playing time in COL…. he sat 2 straight ahead of today now that KB is back…

Paul Sporer: I’d be worried, his PT will likely be inconsistent down the stretch

shane: Berrios and Rodon a toss up to you? ie should the better match ups be used? not that rodon has done much but i feel like berrios numbers are often a mirage

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d fully play matchups b/w those 2

Chip: Is Eloy not very good?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s certainly better than this year’s 106 wRC+ but he’s super frustrating to roster. Injuries are usually the issue for him (as was the case again this yr) and I still think he’s a 40 HR/.300 AVG potential at his very best, but are we ever going to get that very best as we saw hinted in the 2020 short yr? Poisonous situation in Chicago could also be hampering him and the others so I’m not fully out, but as a big Eloy proponent coming into the year, I’ll need a pretty solid discount to buy back in next year

Joey: Start 2: Lindor v Gallen, Adames v Braxton Garrett, or Tovar v Taillon at Coors? Side note, why was Tovar demoted to 6th?

Paul Sporer: The return of KB and overall struggles of Tovar likely were the driving forces behind the lineup demotion. I think I got Lindor/Adames despite Tovar having the best matchup in the best venue bc I think the talent of the other 2 is enough to just roll w/them, even in tougher matchups

Paul: Who wins this in a 30 team dynasty league: Corbin Carroll for Sandy Alcantara, Riley Greene and Dylan Crews?

Paul Sporer: No obvious winner here which is what you want from trades. So much up in the air for the person getting the trio, but the upside remains massive to hit big on cashing in Carroll. Meanwhile the Carroll buyer is probably feeling great even if the trio does well bc they got a cornerstone piece for quite some time. Solid deal overall

Nico: Would you be throwing Harrison today?? I feel like yes but I am also hanging onto leads in ERA and WHIP.

Paul Sporer: Think we gotta roll w/him given this matchup. Always scary w/poor command arms, but if you can’t start him v. CLE, he probably shouldn’t be on the roster

RAGBRAI: Though highly improbable, it is still possible that three NLC teams make the playoffs.  If so it that one of the big stories of the year?

Paul Sporer: It’d be MASSIVE!!! Hell, even them getting 2 is a big upset v. expectations

Tony: What are you feelings on CES? Streaky hitter or will he be a guy you are targeting for power next year?

Paul Sporer: Both! I find a lot of power hitters can be susceptible to more streakiness than your average player but I still love CES in Cincy and don’t think he’ll be super expensive next year

Paul Sporer: The price of Reds will go up on the whole, but there should still be some affordable ones and I’ll be buying for sure… just not Wil Myers again

Guest: Start clevinger tonight?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, he’s always scary, but gotta run v. KC

Galaxy brain moment: Hey Paul, am I overthinking it benching Strider today? In a QS league with capped game starts (I can get there with a Quantrill or similar level streams against bad offenses), and Strider is coming off an illness so I’m worried his durability and/or stuff are impacted. Plus Philly offense is elite at home

Paul Sporer: Gotta run Strider. I understand the recent blip and his illness, but I just can’t bench him v. anyone in good conscience

B’ryce Hammer: How hilarious would it be if the Yankees somehow claw back and win a wild card spot with their shell of a team? Only 7 back! LOL

Paul Sporer: It’d be kind of hilarious. 7 is starting to look like a big number at this juncture, but they have 6 v. TOR and only Boston is tied w/them. Compared to SD who are 8 back but have 3 teams in front of them. At this point, teams between you & the last spot are almost as important as the # of games back

Vr: Tyler O’Neil droppable in a keeper league? Would have to be ~top 240 to be kept

Paul Sporer: I’m not the biggest O’Neill guy but he still feels like a Top 240 type for me

Must-stash: Are you rooting for Braves/Jays so we can get Spencer Strider vs. Davis Schneider? Is there a better mustache battle?!

Paul Sporer: Get me and my dirtstache behind home plate for that matchup to complete the festivities!!

Paul Sporer: I saw some Schneider shirts on Twitter over the weekend and really want one, but can’t find where to buy one online

Paul Sporer: this one:

Paul Sporer:

JoeG: Aaron Hicks or Max Kepler as a Daily Roto bat ?

Paul Sporer: Probably look at the matchups to decide, but lean Hicks

KC Pain: Is there a worse division than the AL Central for hitting AND pitching?  Guardians only team w decent pitching, Twins I guess best hitters.  Everyone else in both categories are pretty trash.

Paul Sporer: LOL yeah, especially w/the NLC’s summer surge

Christian: What’s the ideal league format for me if I prefer more of a weekly setup like fantasy football, rather than daily leagues where those cycling the day’s starters have a massive advantage?

Paul Sporer: The NFBC sets pitchers on Monday for the week and then there are 2 hitter periods: Mon-Thu and Fri-Sun so not ENTIRELY weekly, but close enough. And it’s not just the Main Event, there are several other price points to get in at. With my time, weekly (or modified weekly like NFBC) is the way to go for me!!

Gipson-Long: Nick Pollack had some slight enthusiasm for Gipson-Long who faces Kenny Rosenberg (similar enthusiasm) next week. Where will they be on your SP chart? (If you’re not asleep on the couch)

Paul Sporer: Actually just cued up Nick’s vid on SGL to watch with my lunch!! And yes, if they’re on the docket to start, they’ll be on the SP chart as long as I don’t fall asleep like yesterday lol!

Paul Sporer: (for those that missed it, I passed out early on the couch last night which is why there was no SP Chart today… I guess if I’m gonna miss a day, chat day is the right one to miss since I can answer the start/sit Qs here)

Guest: how did the Braves get to be this scary, they’re tied with 2019 Astros for best non-P wRC+ in the last 45 years. when Wheeler isn’t safe no one is. still a start his next matchup with them though I guess?

Paul Sporer: Excellent development and some shrewd moves to add great pieces, too. They’re an absolute force and I don’t blame anyone for sitting ANYONE against them. Only Wheeler will get a 3-x next week from me with a note similar to what I just said about not blaming anyone for passing. Nola will get 1 or 2 x’s and no one else will get a single one (Sanchez and Nats are the other guys going against ’em)

The Taj: Taj doing Taj things today: 4 innings, 4 runs, 4 hits, 3 walks, 7 k’s. So tantalizing. Will he fare better vs. LAA?

Paul Sporer: He might, he’s always riding that line between good and meh. I still love him for next year

FightingFor1st: Are you starting Braxton Garrett today at MIL?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes!

KC Pain: Think the Tigers will regret Max Clark over Langford?  Heck, just the timelime hurts imo, they could use another bat in a year, vs 3-4.

Paul Sporer: No, I’m certainly OK with it. Both are very intriguing prospects, but the Tigers aren’t in a position to draft for the shorter term. Even if Clark takes a little longer, he still has insane upside and should be ready by the time Harris is really putting the finishing touches on a hopeful contender

Guest: Nola was my biggest bust this year. How do you view him for next year? Some of his peripherals are fine,but the prominent use of his new pitch- the meatball – makes me want to stay away

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s been pretty dang frustrating over his career, though a decent portion of the inconsistency does come from the poor defense behind him. Though he can’t blame the defense for his 1.6 HR9 this year!! Where he goes in free agency will really determine my interest level next year. Would love to see him in a more pitcher-friendly park w/some sharp defenders behind him… StL perhaps?!

Andy: P.S. it’s amcg here from Rotojunkie 🙂

Paul Sporer: Yo, how’s it going? Glad you ID’d yourself. RJ… so many amazing memories from the RJ heyday

Tanner Houck: How much confidence in me today? (12 tm 5×5)

Paul Sporer: Medium at best

Joey Luccessi: Would you start me tonight for desperation?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s a worthy Hail Mary throw

KC Pain: Thoughts on Josh Naylor?  Put my Vlad Jr numbers in like 30 fewer games.  Think he is a sleeper for top 1B next year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m a huge Naylor fan. He was one of my big breakout picks last yr and I stuck w/him this yr in a couple lgs to pleasant results. Health has been a bit of an issue, but the production rules!

Armadillofury: Is Ronny Mauricio underhyped? He has serious 70 grade power (117.8 mph max exit velo), steals bases, and doesn’t have strikeout issues (18% strikeout rate in AAA) – what else could you ask for? Low OBP doesn’t matter for fantasy.

Paul Sporer: I felt like he and Dominguez were underhyped upon arrival. Dominguez then went crazy and got everyone back on board before his injury (which sucks so much!). Ronny Mo might have some K issues in the majors, though, as he is a free swinger who doesn’t take many walks… that said, he has fantasy juice (HR/SB) so even if he has severe ups and downs because of his plate skills, there’s still a lot to like, espec. bc I don’t think he will be super expensive even being on an NY-based team

HappyFunBall: Who do you like for their career, having seen both of them for a couple of months on the big stage…Elly or Royce?

Paul Sporer: This may be controversial, but I’m on the Lewis side. That’s entirely due to Lewis love as opposed to any Elly hate. I’ve been in the tank for Lewis from the jump and just desperately hope he can stay healthy for a full season. I don’t think you can go wrong w/either Lewis could be a decent bit cheaper, too.

In the Pull Hitter Pod’s early 7 rd mock, Elly went in the 2nd and Lewis didn’t go. A few weeks later, Todd Zola ran a 6-rounder w/a group of industry folks and Elly went in the 2nd again while Lewis went in the 6th. Their prices will likely tighten over the offseason, but I still doubt Lewis goes over Elly so that makes him the easy pick for me since I like Lewis at equal prices already

Bee: Should I worry about Goodman not getting as many starts with Bryant surprisingly back in COL?

Paul Sporer: Yes indeed

Dan: Hi Paul. I have Justin verlander in keeper league what are your thoughts next year on him? Worth keeping as 11th round pick for next season?

Paul Sporer: At that price, yeah I’m OK w/it

Gipson-Long: Following up, I meant to ask WHERE on the chart they’d be, if you think he and Rosenberg are decent enough for a 12-team dice-roll

Gipson-Long: (But thanks for the charts!!)

Paul Sporer: Ohhhh… SGL gets OAK so he’ll probably have 3 X’s meaning he’s streamable everywhere and Rosenberg gets DET so he’ll probably get at least 2 X’s for the matchup (he’s not as dominant as SGL and I still prefer facing OAK over DET hence the difference)

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll. It’s the homestretch, keep that pedal to the metal to bring home those titles. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch this weekend and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one!

Bee: It would be super helpful to out out the daily SP chart the day *before* so that we have better data for pick-ups…seeing it day of is too late sadly in my leagues

Paul Sporer: (the vast majority are out the night before… missed today’s due to falling asleep early while watching games last night)