Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – November 22nd, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hey everyone! Thanks for coming out!!!

James: What prospects do you see making an impact on the ‘24 Mets

Paul Sporer: I still have confidence in Brett Baty. I like Mark Vientos as a power-only guy. Drew Gilbert, who they got from Houston in the JV trade is interesting. Ronny Mauricio has an appealing pwr-spd profile, it is undercut by a rough plate profile that includes too many Ks and not nearly enough BB.

Ben: Confidence in Framber next year? Seems to have faded a bit down the stretch…what tier of pitcher would you rank him with?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m not going anywhere with him. He had a brutal July and then a few roadbumps the rest of the way with several gems still mixed in, including the August 1st no-hitter. I’d love for the rough playoff to drop his price a bit, I’ll gladly buy

Pete Rose Jr.: Can you see the Reds trading India to Seattle for a young SP?

Paul Sporer: I cooould, but I’m not sure they rush out any of these hitters and just keep the depth! Injuries happen and there are a lot of young hitters who might regress after their breakout. It does make sense to do a hitter-for-pitcher trade, but I won’t crush them if they just hold

Paul Sporer: Oh snap Eugenio Suarez going to Arizona!!

Kyle: What types of draft prep are you doing this year that you haven’t done in past years, if anything?

Paul Sporer: Nothing specifically new this year, but I am doing my projections by hand again. I am able to deep dive the player pool and learn more about players I might’ve otherwise overlooked

Johny5Alive: Regarding the Mets, let’s say they strike out on Yamamoto and Ohtani. Do you just go into the season with Alonso on his last year and sign a couple of guys you intend to trade during the season and just go for next year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I could see them chilling out if they can’t get either of them because Cohen was even hinting at not competing until 2025 after the deadline deals. I don’t quite buy that yet, but if they miss out on their big targets, then he can fall back on that comment if they come up short in the offseason and say I told y’all we were gonna do this

AL Central Casting: What is a reasonable expectation for Jose Ramirez in 2024? Still the top fantasy 3B option? It seems like he is starting to decline at least in the power department, but the team context is hurting his counting stats and while he’s still stealing bases, I’m concerned about something like a 70/17/70/15/.270 line in the near future.

Paul Sporer: He’s certainly not the unquestioned top guy at 3B anymore. I love him but I understand the drop-off concerns. I thiiink we can get another 20+/20+ season but the season you mentioned is kind of a Ke’Bryan Hayes+ and while you certainly don’t want that in the late-1st/early-2nd round, it doesn’t kill you as a downside outlook

Kate: Does Ezequiel Duran need a trade (or an injury) to start 2024 with an everyday role?

Paul Sporer: Probablyyyyy, but he could be a near-everyday guy just bouncing around the diamond giving different guys days off. If he hit righties better, I think he’d have a better case for a full-time role

Kate: Does Garrett Whitlock need a trade to get another chance at starting?  Love the skills, but he can’t seem to stay healthy.

Paul Sporer: It seems like they are gonna stretch him out so he’s able to compete for a starting role, so we’ll see! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-9-28-23/

Kyle: Really appreciate you working right until Thanksgiving.

$260 roto 8 keeper 12 team league. locked in are Acuna 44, Tucker 36, EDLC 14, Glasnow 12, Skubal 12, and Edwin Diaz 21. Which two of the following would you add on? Vlad 34, Bichette 33, Nolan Jones 12, Wander 14 (TBD obviously), Ketel 7, Ozuna 2. Thanks in advance!!!

Paul Sporer: I appreciate y’all showing out for the chat!

Even though I know Nolan Jones won’t be as good as we saw this year – especially the >.400 BABIP – but at $12, I’m keeping him in Coors. And I definitely see the volatility of EDLC and think we could easily see a modest 2024 (prospect growth isn’t linear!), but I’m still holding at $14!

Kate: How early do you think we see guys like Tyler Black, Colson Montgomery, and Coby Mayo this year?  Mayo seems to have a few more obstacles in front of him, but the other two don’t seem to have much in their way.

Paul Sporer: I’m really excited about Colson Montgomery and he could be up in April if all goes well in Triple-A. And like you mention, Mayo has more hurdles in front of him. Tyler Black is the sneaky one of this group. He’s probably the least known of the 3 on the fantasy landscape, but he’s coming off a fantastic season at AA/AAA (18 HR/55 SB). He also had a .284/.417/.513 line and could be a strong AVG asset with a bunch of SBs as early as next year. 3B isn’t exactly blocked either, with Andruw Monasterio currently penciled in.

Jamie: is Skubal a top 20 arm next year?

Paul Sporer: He’s being ranked and drafted as such. I’m fully in on the hype and paying the premium. It’s risky, but the upside is filthy!

Kyle: Your bet for where Glasnow ends up?

Paul Sporer: I know it gets boring to projects Dodgers for every other player, but I meannnn, they also kinda get every other player lol. They need pitching badly!

Tim: Do you see the Orioles being willing to deal the kind of prospects necessary to acquire a top-line starting pitcher? Should they be?

Paul Sporer: They should at least be exploring. They would also make an interesting landing spot for Glasnow, though I understand if they don’t want to give TB ammo to burn them for yrs to come so maybe Dylan Cease is the right fit for them? Like Cincy, I don’t think they have to make a move, but they should be thorough in exploring the options to add a top-liner to go with Bradish and Grayson

Kyle: FPAZ podcast with Justin (and many others) was really fun to listen to. Such a fun atmosphere that makes me think drunk baseball podcasting is an underserved podcast type.

Paul Sporer: It helps that I’m sober so I can sortaaaa keep us on track

Kate: I know we’re a ways out from this, but will we get more Longenhagen pods before Opening Day this year?  Those episodes with you guys last year were awesome!

Paul Sporer: Absolutely, I had such a good time talking with Eric last year

KG: Who do you prefer for a keep forever 12 team H2H, Bradish or Bobby Miller?  Lean Miller for upside but Bradish’s pitch values insane for his breaking stuff, and the results def there too.

Paul Sporer: I’m right there with you leaning Miller despite some real love for Bradish. Just think Miller has pure ace upside

Izzy: Is Jazz good? Have a great Thanksgiving!

Paul Sporer: I think Jazz Chisholm Jr. is good. Injuries have hampered him and while there are some plate profile concerns, we have seen some rich pwr-spd upside in his 300 games

Gabe: Nolan Groman. Traded? More than a DH? Takes the next step forward?

Paul Sporer: There are trade possibilities for him because he isn’t a great 2B and I’m not sure they want him blocking DH w/2 old cornerstones who could use some days off there in Goldy and Arenado. Justin was speculating about an Edman deal on the last pod to open the door for Masyn Winn and keep Gorman at 2B. They’ve definitely got options.

rAGAns: What can I buy Cole Ragans for in a QS league? Clase or Jhoan reasonable?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t think either of those closers is too big an ask

Guest: I could see the dodgers getting by with Buehler/Miller/Pepiot/Sheehan and then getting 2 more starters for depth. If they do get Ohtani, maybe they buy up a cheaper 1 year guy to bridge the gap. I just don’t seem them hurting for SP as much as others seem to think or maybe I just really like Pepiot/Sheehan/Miller more.

Paul Sporer: There is upside there, but that’s a remarkably green staff for a World Series contender. Buehler off TJ and 3 guys with around 250 combined MLB innings. They just didn’t have the same depth of previous years this year and I think they’ll aim to remedy that

vr: Hi Paul, thanks for hosting this today. I’m curious what you think the trade value for Yamamoto is in a traditional 5×5 keeper league. What adp would you give him? Am thinking of trading Matt Chapman or Hunter Brown for the #1 draft pick

Paul Sporer: I can tell you Yamamoto is already a Top 100 pick in Fall drafts at the NFBC so I’d absolutely trade either for the #1 pick!  https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball

Chip: Paul – first of all, I’d like to thank you for unknowingly helping me to be the first simultaneous winner of my AL-Only and NL-Only dynasty leagues. Your write-ups and podcasts have been instrumental. Hope you have a great holiday, it is well-deserved.

Paul Sporer: Congrats and thank you so much for the kind words!! Have an excellent holiday season! (we’re kinda in the holiday season for the next 6-7 wks or so)

Chip: Is there a place to see retroactive ADP and Auction data? I’d like to do some research on general hits and misses across draft types but I don’t know where to see historical data like this.

Paul Sporer: If you’ve been in NFBC leagues, you can access their history, but otherwise I’m not sure if we have a warehouse of previous years ADPs. If anyone knows of one, please let me know. https://nfc.shgn.com/history/baseball

Adenolith: How good are you at Immaculate Grid? I imagine great.

Paul Sporer: I always aim for the win first and foremost but then try to get a low score. I aim for sub-100 as a good day and do pretty well on that front. I can’t remember things that matter, but getting Graeme Lloyd for a Milwaukee/Yankees square on IG to register a 2.2% score? I’m your guy!!

Scott: Thanks for the holiday chat Paul! What do you think the 2023 upside is of Marco Luciano?

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out! There is power upside, but I think he could take some time to develop. He’ll be just 22 yrs old next season and so I could see him taking until age 24 or 25 before really breaking through, if he does.

Paul Sporer: Y’all absolutely killed it filling the queue and I wish I could get to more, but I do have to keep it to a pretty tight hour with family in town for the holidays. Thank you all so much for coming out. Have a great Thanksgiving this weekend and I’ll see y’all next week!