Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 21st, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!!

Tim: Are we calling Miguel Vargas’ recent run run a hot streak or was there enough there to think he’s clicking in the majors?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s starting to put some things together. Full disclosure: I’ve been a long-time Vargas mega-fan but I don’t think I’m just being blinded by fandom here. Simple fact is he deserved better than his .204 BABIP over 591 PA coming into this year and then he was even worse thru 20 gms this yr at .196 BABIP!! Things are finally coming around lately and it’s not even an exorbitant BABIP (.304) as he’s hitting .316/.383/.568 w/6 HR in his last 107 PA. So all that to say, I buy this and think we can see some sustained success from Vargas

Adenolith: Looking for 1 more pitcher in my h2h league. Are you feeling Rasmussen, Warren, or L. Henderson the most?

Paul Sporer: Playing the matchups is likely the best move here, but on talent alone, I lean Rasmussen

Slay, Slade: Cecconi seems like an interesting arm but gets DET, LAD, @NYY next… Should I hold in a deep league? Start vs. DET?

Paul Sporer: I’m cool to hold despite the brutal schedule. Very intriguing arm and they gave a good bat in Josh Naylor to get him. I know 1B don’t have huge trade value so they were never gonna get a mint for Naylor, but Cecconi was a pretty solid return in what I saw as a win-win deal when it took place.

Trader’s Remorse: Dealt Morel for Baz in my AL Only. Will I regret it?

Paul Sporer: No that seems like a fair 1:1

Guest: How are you feeling about McLain at this point in the season? It’s tough to let him keep sinking my BA every week. Are you still holding or is T. Fitzgerald an upgrade?

Paul Sporer: Ugh comparing one of my faves coming into the year v. one of my least faves in Fitz, but I don’t think it’s a crazy switch. McLain should improve his .233 BABIP but ya he is bludgeoning our AVG weekly at .176 and there’s only so much the 6 HR/10 SB can do to soften that damage. Is there any way you can hold McLain but still grab & run Fitz for the time being? I’m still really reluctant to cut McLain outright even in medium & shallow lgs, but I understand that it’s on the table in those formats after 6+ wks of sub-.200 AVG

Guest: I have space to grab and hold another player. Currently looking for an upgrade on Adames at MI. Would you be most interested in Winn or Tovar?

Paul Sporer: I like Tovar overall, espec. w/half his games in Coors. They are headed on the road next wk, though, so I have a slight lean toward Winn in the short-term. Maybe run him a week-10 days and then shift to Tovar once they head back to Coors?

Baz: Which buy low would you buy (AL only, OBP league) – Christian Walker or Shane Baz?

Paul Sporer: I think Walker is mostly fine and should get his numbers back up as the season goes on. I’ve admittedly always been a Baz skeptic and that dangerous home park doesn’t make me feel all that much better about him these days, either

Spherical House Plants: Paul! I need some help at catcher in my 14-team, one-catcher league. It’s also a keep forever league. I have Francisco Alvarez who has kinda sucked this year. Drake Baldwin is available on the ww, and O’Hoppe was just dropped. Who should I prioritize? I thought Alvarez coming into this season, but should I cut him and add O’Hoppe? Or maybe hold both? What about Baldwin, keeping in mind that future years matter also? Help. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m going for O’Hoppe out of that trio! In a 1-C league, I’m probably not messing with a second one but I like O’Hoppe both short- and long-term so he can be your one guy

Guest: How much pepiot do you still have in your stepiot for Ryan this season?

Paul Sporer: ughhh I’d have so much Pepiot in my Stepiot if not for that damn home park! That said, I still have plenty and enough to at least run him as a team streamer. Unfortunately the schedule is not terribly friendly coming up as his road games are tough spots at HOU and at BOS in the coming weeks. Just too much talent to move on, even w/the issues at home

Chip: Paul, thanks for chatting. Do you prefer Leiter or Will Warren ROS? Is Warren a must-add in 12-teams?

Paul Sporer: I like Warren a decent bit over Leiter ROS, buuuuutttt he gets at COL/at LAD for his next 2! I’ll take the plunge in Coors, but sitting for the Dodgers. A 21% K-BB makes him pretty close to must-scoop in 12s so even if you’re benching for one or both of at COL/at LAD, I’d still go for him over Leiter (not anti-Leiter, more of a pro-Warren take). Anyyyyy chance you could roster both in the short-term bc Leiter gets at CHW on the weekend, so I’d love to get that start

Medium Rare: Are you in on Addison Barger? Will he get on base enough to help in an OBP league? His hard hit rate has me interested

Paul Sporer: Share your interest in Barger for the same reason as he’s really tattooing the ball, but unless he dials up his BB% to match his MiLB totals, he could be a bit of an OBP drag. I think the power trade-off is worth going for, but just keep your expectations tempered on the OBP front in case the BB% remains modest

Peter: Hi Paul, thoughts on Luis Mey as the future closer in Cincy?

Paul Sporer: He’s my long-term favorite right now, of course RPs can change on a dime so I try not to plan too far in advance on closers. I’ve been stridently against Emilio Pagán as a closer in recent yrs bc of his HR allowance but in a desperate situation, I picked him up early this yr and the results have been fantastic! He is still a total HR machine which does give me pause about how long he can hold up, but for now I think Francona gives him some wiggle room and doesn’t immediately move off him w/a bad outing.

He allowed runs in 3 of 4 incl. a 4 run meltdown v. CHW, but Francona stuck w/him and he has 3 scoreless app. since then w/4 Ks, 0 BB, 2 H. So while I’m perpetually nervous about Pagán, I think he has the job firmly enough to not chase Mey everywhere.

bcubs: is caballero worth keeping in a 20 team league due to his positional flexibility?

Paul Sporer: Ya and he plays quite a bit. Hard to get rid of a contributing starter in a 20-teamer

Josh: Any reason to hang on to K. Campbell in a 10tm 5×5 with OPS instead of avg? Guys like Barger and Shaw on the wire that I would think are best options. ROS outlook lead you to choose one of those two?

Paul Sporer: Oh wow, I don’t have Campbell anywhere sometimes guys aren’t prominently on your radar if you don’t have ’em or in my case, if they aren’t an SP since I write SPs up daily… I hadn’t realized the cold spell Campbell was in the midst of rn. He’s hitting .074 in his last 55 PA! I realize you gotta have a quicker trigger in 10s so I get moving on. I’d probably go for Barger over him right now. I’d also keep tabs on Campbell for if/when he heats back up bc I still think he’s someone who can be a 10-team contributor

RP Strategy: Would you rather spec on a terrible save chance (White Sox) or roster a better RP (Varland, Matt Brash)?

Paul Sporer: Depends how badly you need the SVs. If you’re not desperate, I probably go for the better RP innings

Saul Sporer: You think this Lawlar situation is trending towards him getting sent back down soon? Never seen a team handle a top prospect like this

Paul Sporer: In fairness, they told us he wasn’t coming up to play daily. There’s just no room for him rn which is an enviable position for ARI. Who you takin outta that infield? But ya I could see him being sent out if they want him playing daily and nothing opens up in the bigs

Matt: Polanco has cooled off. Is he still a rosterable 2B in roto (OBP/TB)

Paul Sporer: Yes in 15s, debatable in 12s, and cuttable in 10s

And I ran, Aranda far away: Is Aranda regressing to the mean or slumping?

Paul Sporer: I’m not trying to be flippant, but is there any real difference? It usually is a slump that regresses a guy back to his mean. And it’s really only a rough wk so I’m not even sure it’s a full scale slump. He’s hitting .167 the last wk, but .297 the last 2 wks! Hold the line w/Aranda even if the slump extends beyond this week

Army of Arms: Any favorites in this list of ww arms? Any team streamers or are all cuttable? Noah Cameron, Dobbins, Cannon, Logan Evans, Kochanowitz. Thank you!

Paul Sporer: Cameron and Dobbins stand out as my faves. I see both as team streamers so I’d like to hold on even when I’m not starting them

ross: Would you drop Salvy for Moreno?

Paul Sporer: Gahhh, sounds like a shallower 1-C league. I love Moreno, but I just know Salvy is gonna get hot and start cooking. Buuuttt in a 1-C shallower format, I get it espec. bc I don’t think Moreno’s run is a fluke so even if Perez gets back on track as I suspect, I don’t think Moreno will collapse

Aranda: Makes sense. Just a follow up – sounds like he should be rostered in 12 team formats, agree?

Paul Sporer: Yes I’m def rostering & holding Aranda in 12s

Colton: no question, just going down a rabbit hole trying to figure out Jordan Walker and WOOF it’s bad

Paul Sporer: Been a fan throughout his brief MLB career and want him to succeed, but it’s hard to find any real positives that don’t focus on his prospect pedigree

CI Q: Who has the best ROS, Soderstrom or Manzardo?

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s a fun toss-up, gimme Soderstrom there. Talent-wise, they’re pretty close, but Soderstrom has 1B/OF elig. while Manzo is 1B-only. I also prefer Soderstrom’s park. So it’s some soft factors, but that pushes me toward Soderstrom in an otherwise very close battle

rodman: Thanks for doing these. Who do you like more in a vacuum, B Lowe or shaw?

Paul Sporer: big Brandon Lowe fan!

Sam: Hi! Drop Tanner Bibee for Will Warren?

Paul Sporer: What kinda lg? 10 or 12 teams seemingly?

Sam: Dynasty league

Sam: 12

Paul Sporer: At the risk of overreacting to Bibee’s slow start, I think I’m gonna pull the trigger there and get Warren. If Bibee’s K% wasn’t down 10 pts and his SwStr down 4 pts, I’d probably hang with him a bit more but it’s been such a drop-off that I’m willing to pivot Warren

Dylan: Is Santander droppable at this point? Even at his best he’s an OBP drain and can’t wait around forever for this to turn

Paul Sporer: I have a hard time moving on, but it just might be time in 10s and 12s. This has been a weakness in my game in shallower lgs since I’m so 15-team focused, but the more I look, the more I see a justifiable cut. His .216 BABIP is low, but he only ran a .225 last yr and is at just .253 the last 4 yrs. His xBA is only .206 so a reallyyy low AVG was always in the range of the outcomes. Outside of the power spike he wasn’t fundamentally different last yr, so if he hadn’t hit 44 HRs last yr, we probably wouldn’t even be asking this question but instead just moving on in shallower formats (I am holding firm in 15s as I just don’t think the wire has better to offer) so despite paying the higher draft premium this yr, I can see moving on if someone on the wire has your attention

Reese in Pieces: Why did Reese Olson have to hit the IL right when he was blossoming?

Paul Sporer: Right??? I’m so bummed!! We can take solace in the fact that it’s a finger injury which feels more manageable than an arm injury so perhaps just a small blip in the midst of a breakthrough season. Maybe they aren’t ready to push him for 180 IP anyway so this can serve as one of a couple small breaks they might’ve already been planning for Olson

Insert Witty Name Here: I YOLO’d on Max Meyer, loved that snippet in your daily SP write up.

Paul Sporer: Sometimes I just want to bet on the talent and see how it goes! I’ve been very careful with CHC but Meyer was a prospect favorite of mine and I love what he’s been doing so I wanted to give those on the fence the nudge if they were looking to start him.

I’m also one of those inclined to be a bit riskier early on knowing there’s time to chase and despite popular opinion, ratios can and do move a lot throughout the season. The tide has been turning on that old adage, led by Todd Zola in recent years underscoring how much ratios can change even in Aug-Sept, so that has emboldened me to take some of those riskier shots, espec. earlier in the season.

Guest: In a redraft league, is Cristopher Sanchez good value for an underperforming Michael Harris? Should we expect a Harris bounce back to a large degree?

Paul Sporer: That’s a pretty fair deal if you’re a Harris believer. I’m not the biggest fan but he’s better than this .224 AVG/.257 BABIP combo. Speed alone elevates his BABIP floor and it’s higher than .257 IMO. So yeah, even being more tepid on Harris and a big Sanchez fan, I can totally see that as a fair deal on both ends.

Ranger Danger: Is Marcus Semien droppable in a 12T roto league? I’ve been shopping him to no avail and have more or less stapled him to my bench. My only hesitation is that the wire is thin: Meidroth, Rafaela, Fitzgerald, Norby and Vargas are the best IF options out there. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Few bigger fans of Semien than myself and yet I can see a drop. He’s just draining the AVG right now w/little heat around it (3 HR/2 SB). I’m basically an anti-Fitzgerald fan, but I’m OK w/the swap. Ride Fitzy’s BABIP and improved K% (though he’s still whiffing a ton so it could be a mirage) to see where it goes. Maybe circle back to Semien if he finds it. If it was just this season with Semien, I’d be holding the line for sure, but when you factor in last yr, the fact he’s in his mid-30s, and the bat slowing down, we can’t ignore what we’re seeing.

Many were ready to make the call in draft season, but I was open to buying in case it was more of a blip than the beginning of the end. His plate skills were in line with 2023 and it was really just a 41 pt drop in BABIP dragging the numbers down… or so I thought. K% now at his highest since 2014, BABIP remains in the tank as he’s just not striking the ball particularly well. He’s no doubt better than .175 but not necessarily better than last yr’s .237

Paul Sporer: Father Time remains undefeated!

Margin Walker: Hassell get enough run in the next few days to be worth the hastle?

Paul Sporer: I’ll be keeping an eye on him. 3-time Top 100 Prospect still just 23 yrs old and has 4 HR/9 SB in AAA so he could bring some fantasy juice if the playing time is there

Bob: Abrams and Rooker fair for Carroll? 12-team HTH

Paul Sporer: Yeah that feels pretty good

E: Think the reds might get aggressive enough to bring up chase burns by the end of the year? He certainly seems ready for a promotion to triple A.

Paul Sporer: He is 22 yrs old with high level NCAA experience so I don’t think they have to baby him. If they deem him ready this summer, I can totally see him coming up, even if only out of the pen as a multi-IP force. Definitely been keeping tabs on Burns bc once you’re in Double-A, you’re a call away these days.

Tom: Generally how many bad starts in a row before you drop a decent (not ace) pitcher? ex: Megill, Max Mayer.

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size. Shallower – gotta have a quicker trigger so maybe 2-3 I’m gonna start looking, especially if the skills are deteriorating and it’s not a super tough schedule. Deeper leagues it’s going to depend what’s on the wire and for guys like Megill and Meyer, I haven’t seen enough on the wire to move off them before 3-4 bad starts in a row. Meyer has nasty skills and just handled the Cubs today. He’s got a great amount of leeway with me right now even with low W potential.

Megill has at least 2 bad ones in a row and maybe 3 depending how you feel about the at STL one. Now it was at STL, v. CHC, and at NYY so a REALLY tough slate which definitely takes some sting out of the numbers (8.76 ERA, 2.05 WHIP). Then I check the upcoming schedule to see if an oasis is coming. In Megill’s case, there very much is one next start: v. CHW. So I’m holding through that (and likely starting him). If he doesn’t rebound there, then we have to start to question his status in all formats….

Paul Sporer: …especially with an at LAD/at COL 2-step after the CHW week.

foptop: Would you drop B Lowe for Shaw?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m holding Lowe

Phil Dunphy: Is Sal Perez a drop at this point in a 12 teamer? Or just bench him while riding Agustin?

Paul Sporer: I’d really try to bench. Is it a 1-C lg? If so, I understand not wanting to hold 2, but I just feel like Salvy has a tear coming sooner than later

Soup: In general, how do you feel about rostering large portions of one team? I started the season with Tucker and Hoerner but have since picked up Busch and Shaw. Bad strategy?

Paul Sporer: I have zero issue at all. If they’re good, they’re good! Sure, it stings when they get shutout on occasion, but it’s awesome when they score 8-10 and you’re getting a tonnnn of that heat

Colton: I do have one question though, would you hold Reese Olson through this IL stint? Don’t have any open spots unfortunately and would be picking up either Birdsong or Rea for him

Paul Sporer: I reeeeallllyy want to hold Olson through this. I definitely wouldn’t take Rea over him. And that’s less a Rea diss and more an Olson promotion. Rea’s been fine, but I think healthy Olson is a gamechanger. I’ll turn your attention to Jeff’s article on Birdsong for his thoughts: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/overpaying-for-a-bird-and-a-song/ — I might not be quite as strident, but if Birdsong is walking guys, it’s hard to see how he finds consistent success so hold Olson!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out!