Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 17th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!

Mike: I have Tucker in a points league. He’s been underwhelming for a consensus top 15 guys. Should I be worried? Is there better days ahead or is this what he is?

Paul Sporer: Kinda surprised it’s been underwhelming w/a 20-20 pace & improved AVG. I have zero concerns about him

Jim Leyland Palmer: 10tm 5×5. I sold E-rod for Starling Marte. How does that sit with you?

Paul Sporer: Dig it! Totally fair

Mike: What’s your take on Alcantra ROS.

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be fine. The 60% LOB rate feels like an anomaly as just about everything else is intact. In trade lgs, I see if there’s a buy low opportunity. He won’t come cheap given his draft cost, but I’d take any discount, especially if I need an arm

Scott TINSTAAPP:

 

Jason Beck

@beckjason

 

In a race for the ages, 43-year-old Rich Hill outran 40-year-old Miguel Cabrera to the bag.

17 May 2023

my favourite and most exciting play of the year happened today

Paul Sporer: It was baseball excellence

Paul Sporer: Looked like a tie which should’ve gone to Miggy!

Saul Porer: Are you willing to invest in Wandy Peralta for his save share? It seems like it’s an even split bit between him and King.

Paul Sporer: If I’m desperate. I try to put myself in spots where I don’t have to play that game of chasing anyone w/a hint of SV potential

Jim Leyland Palmer: Riley Greene has been on fire this month, but not much power to show for. Still a lot of hard hit grounders and line drives. Do you think real power is in his profile this year and near future? And in a keep forever format would this maybe even be a time to sell?

Paul Sporer: Can certainly see power in his future, but he seems to come up short on pure fantasy juice which is why I didn’t really chase him in draft season. Might not be a bad time to sell, trade markets are only as good as your league is offering, though

Matt: What are you doing with Starling Marte at this point? I own him in Ottoneu and was about ready to drop, but then he put up strong showings the past few days.

Paul Sporer: Speed has been there all yr while 3% HR/FB and low BABIP have held down the rest of his line… I’m not worried about him

Hank Scorpio: 12tm 6×6 roto: I’ve been holding Tyler Stephenson all year to no great effect. The other options I’m staring down are Raleigh & Kirk. Am I in team streamer territory here based on matchups or is holding out on T-Step still the play?

Paul Sporer: Feels like a 1-C league if those options are available in which case I understand moving on from T-Step. Still think the pwr will come along as his HR/FB is in half from his career mark, but you don’t have to hold in 1-C formats

Dave: After the blistering hot start, Kelenic has cooled significantly.  He was never going to keep the pace he was on with his K%, but what do you expect from him the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: 33% K rate in his last 92 PA after starting off w/a 24% mark. If the early K gains were just a blip, it could be pretty tough rest of way. He still has 4 HR/2 SB in that 92 PA sample so he can still be fantasy useful, but maybe he won’t be the breakout star of the year. This is why we don’t call things one way or the other 2-3 wks in.

Schmidt Happens: Would you start Clarke Schmidt @CIN in AL only? Is he a cut for Houck?

Paul Sporer: No and yes I’d rather have Houck

Kathy: Is machado way better than Arenado in a dynasty format?

Paul Sporer: Not waayyy better, no. It’s like a 2-yr age difference

Schmidt Happens: (PS: I was going to sit Ober yesterday vs. LAD, but your column talked me into running him out there, so thank you for the W!)

Paul Sporer: Woo, you’re welcome! I’ll definitely have my misses, but felt great about Ober!

Brash Deciscions: I have a $1 Matt Brash making me crazy in AL only. His underlying numbers/statcast page are lovely but he HBP’d a run recently. Should I try to unload for a Larnach-level hitter and/or cut for a streaming arm (Houck, K. Middleton are representative SP/RPs on the wire)? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: As nasty as he is, he’s rocking 35-40 grade control so the volatility is through the roof. I’d be fine going for Larnach or Houck over him

Gunnar: Am i droppable in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Depends for who… I wasn’t a huge Gunnar guy coming into the year, but also don’t want to use that bias to cut him too soon for a lesser player

Nate: Think there’s a breakout that can still come with Torkelson? Or is he mostly just a middling 1B at this point?

Paul Sporer: We’re still just over 550 career PA so I’m far from locking in who he is. Just don’t feel like he’s a true talent 7% HR/FB rate. If that’s more in the 12-15% range, he’s a markedly different player (12 is avg, so he doesn’t need to be well beyond lg average to surge in production)

Matona 500: Tigers Question! Nick Maton is sometimes batting clean-up with a​ ​150​/​254​/​310 line. AL OBP league, should I cut for a player with worse PT but maybe better skills? (Trammel, Julks, Jake Meyers, Josh H. Smith​, Willie Calhoun​ are the sorts of names)

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d be OK w/that. He’s too all-or-nothing to have much value anywhere

Ted: Can you give a general SP ranking for Bryce Miller in a dynasty? Top 30? Top 40?

Paul Sporer: Top 40ish, yeah

Mitch: OBP/QS league, would you trade S. Gray + Cobb for Jazz?

Paul Sporer: I can get behind that if Jazz fits your offensives needs when he gets back

Anthony: What are your thoughts on Wade Jr. for ROS?

Paul Sporer: Really dig Wade. Crushes vR and is even getting some looks vL since he’s off to a good start against ’em. I’d have him rostered everywhere right now

Guest: Hey Paul, thanks for doing this! Is Strahm droppable in 12 tm H2H daily-moves points league to grab another SP? Some available arms are JP Sears, Grayson Rodriguez,  Bradish.

Paul Sporer: Bradish is the only one I like of that trio, but I’m trying to hold Strahm where I can. He already copped a sneak SV and I wonder if more of that could be on the way w/Alvarado out & Suarez back. He threw in the 7th after the SV and snagged a sneak W, too… I just think he’s too good to let him go bc he could be right back in the rotation for any injury they have

Hairball Sound: People have been talking up Houck lately but the results are not there. Drop for Bradish​/Canning​ or an RP?

Paul Sporer: While I did reco Houck in a couple moves, that was for lower level players. I do prefer Bradish to Houck while he & Canning are pretty close. I’m good make a move

Kyle: Drop any of Correa, JDM, Jung, or Taylor Ward for Lourdes?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t object to JDM or Ward. I loved Ward coming in but he’s had a nightmare May and if Gurriel is available it’s probably a 12-teamer so I get the move… gotta ride hot hands in shallower formats where the waiver pool is loaded with similar talents

Payton: Do you think Bieber can continue accumulating value in points leagues as a crafty volume guy? Or is yesterday’s start closer to what we can expect with his decreased velo.

Paul Sporer: I do, I think yesterday was just a standard issue bad outing. Hell, he had 4 scoreless before the ugly 5th

Dave: If you’re IL stashing one fireballing SP prospect on a bad team in a keeper league, is it Mason Miller or Nick Lodolo?

Paul Sporer: Lodolo. Just hard to have confidence in Miller’s health and he has negative win potential even when healthy

Pedro: Somebody cut Taj B. in my AL only 5×5.  Thoughts about what he will do when recalled (maybe tonight) for this year, and what percentage of a FAAB budget would you pay for him?  Thanks  Paul

Paul Sporer: I’m still very bullish on him, I’d be very interested!!! Can’t pin down a % bc it fully depends on what you have left, your needs, and budget left, but I remain fully bought in!

FAAB: Vientos or McLain?

Paul Sporer: McLain for me. Vientos’s PT might be sparse and while I do like him as a power bat, it could be pretty all-or-nothing

Guest:

Jim Leyland Palmer: Bobby Witt is kind of the opposite of Riley Greene in terms of having that fantasy juice, but being a lousy hitter in real life. Do you think Witt is a stable top tier keeper asset for the next handful of years or just too volatile with those plate skills?

Paul Sporer: The HR/SB juice keeps his floor high while I expect the 23-year-old to develop into a more well rounded hitter as he ages and be a premiere player as opposed to just a good fantasy player

JayBook: Have you checked out the steep velocity decline for R. Iglesias? https://www.fangraphs.com/players/raisel-iglesias/17130/graphs?pitchgr… Given Minter’s woes, is Yates the right fallback closer?

Paul Sporer: I’m kinda on the Nick Anderson train!

fantaseeyore: Why is ERod’s performance today predictable?

Paul Sporer: Because he was never staying at that level

re: starling marte: Any concern about the sprint speed? 11 steals but the sprint speed is like 40th percentile

Paul Sporer: Not that much, no. Sprint Speed helps with SBs, but it’s not at all necessary

Pete: Best starter for rest of season of Ober, Garland, Bryce Miller, Bello, and France?

Paul Sporer: Ober

Guest: ROS, where do you rank Josh Lowe, Kelenic, Harris II, Outman

Paul Sporer: Lowe, Harris, Outman, Kelenic

Mitch Keller: I finally put it all together, didn’t I?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. Nick & I have a Fireside Chat coming today that covers Keller & others!

Bill: Do you think Liberatore will stick in STL rotation?

Paul Sporer: I certainly think he should, tbh

Paul Sporer: Sorry for the tight hour today, but I’ve got back-to-back commitments at 2 & 3pm CT. We’ll go longer next week, I appreciate all the questions.

Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!