Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 15th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Welcome everyone, thanks for coming out!

Bob Pollard: Some regression is due, but how real is Ranger Suarez ROS?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s more “the best of what his profile can do” than “tangible changes suggesting he’s in line for a Cy Young-worthy season”. The key to just how good the season will be is that BB rate. If he holds some of these gains all year, he can make a soft regression and then actually wind up as a downballot candidate, but if it’s back to 8-9%, he’ll likely spend the 2nd half in his familiar Team Streamer role

Paul Sporer: BTW, I owe y’all the SP rankings still. Couldn’t get em 100% locked up before my trip last weekend so I’m reworking some guys (wait a day and things change, let alone 3-4) and will get ’em up this week. Sorry about that!

Guest: Bryan Woo or Brayan Bello?

Paul Sporer: They aren’t too far apart at all in terms of talent. Woo has shown more swing-and-miss upside which gives him a slight edge in fantasy, but I’d probably just play the immediate schedules b/w those 2

Tony Taters: Trade Houck for Santander? (Houck’s been my best pitcher, but I need power. AL only OBP league.)

Paul Sporer: Dang, Houck’s only bringing back Santander in an AL Only? And I say that more as pro-Houck than anti-Santy. I think Santy’s AVG will bounce back up and the power is already there, so he’ll be fine. It’s just that Houck looks like more a tangible breakout in comparison to say Ranger Suarez, who we just discussed. That splitter has helped combat lefties and he’s commanding his whole arsenal, leading to a major BB improvement (-5 pts to 4%). Maybe I’m overrating him, but I thiiiink there’s a big bat out there for him

Bradish: Bradish pulled in the 5th…

Paul Sporer: 85 pitches. They are taking their time w/him for sure, which makes sense. It was 90 pitches last time out, so if they were thinking another 90 here, it doesn’t make any sense to start the inning at 85. Gets a 2-step next wk so even if he’s operating in a 90-pitch range at the high end, I’m still starting him (at STL, at CHW)

The Milk Man: Is Cowser washed? He’s probably done more harm than good  to us individuals so lucky to grab him. Seems like the Orioles have hit a roadblock with their 24 rookie class.

Paul Sporer: Ebbs and flows… that’s the downside about picking up someone who was that ELECTRIC bc you knoooow it’s coming down relatively soon. Even w/the comedown, he’s got a 141 wRC+ on the season. I still like Cowser going forward. He’ll start popping up on 10- and maybe even some 12-team wires but I’m riding it out. He could be a .750s OPS with pwr & spd from here on out and that’s pretty valuable in all formats. Daulton Varsho has a .752 OPS w/7 HR & 4 SB and checks in as the 29th OF on our Player Rater.

Paul Sporer: Westburg is still toting a crazy high OPS+, too. Holliday didn’t click immediately and Kjerstad really didn’t get to play. I think they’re still pretty happy with their rookie returns.

Guardians of the Galaxy: Florial, Freeman, or Manzardo (OBP league)

Paul Sporer: Tyler Freeman has the best play skills and is delivering some fantasy juice w/4 HR & 5 SB in 141 PA. He’s leading off lately, too!

Guest: Any hope for Detmers or Civale?  Thanks

Paul Sporer: Oh absolutely. Detmers has definitely been frustrating w/late runs tanking his recent starts. It’s a 3rd-time-through (TTT) issue with his OPS jumping from .682 to .994 (compared to .806 TTT last yr). The problem is that he’s barely making it 5 IP in these starts so if they have to start limiting his TTT to combat this, he could become a consistent sub-5 IP guy. That said, he remains firmly on my radar because if he can figure out that third time, he has major upside. He gets a 2-step next week at HOU and v. CLE and I’m starting him in 12s or deeper, but it’s passable in 10s if you have a bevy of options.

Civale… man, I don’t know. We love the K-BB spike since joining the Rays, but it’s come w/a ton of HRs and crazy high BABIP rendering his ratios useless. All that said, I have a hard time getting away from him in a lot of formats. He’s looked better in his last 2 and I’ll probably give him the at TOR & v. KCR before making any cut decisions in 12s or deeper. 10s go at a quicker pace so I understand cuts

Not feeling Roz-y: How much longer can we keep putting R. Arozarena in starting fantasy lineups? Guy seems to have taken a big step back

Paul Sporer: It’s been rough w/the slash line, but you’ve still got 8 HR and 7 SB salvaging some value. Seems like he’s coming out of it here in May with his .220/.360/.634 — I suspect the non-HR hits will start to fall and turn that .179 BABIP around (.200 during the May run). I’m not quitting Arozarena for a while.

bob: When is Seth Lugo’s bubble going to burst or is he in a breakout season?

Paul Sporer: This is a clear case of trusting the ERA indicators. They tab him as the mid-3.00s ERA guy he has been so that’s more or less how I see him. Now the question is – will he be the mid-3.00s guy from today forward with the great start banked yielding a fantastic career year orrr will he essentially “give back” that LOB%/BABIP run-hot and get his season numbers back to the mid-3.00s? Easy starts v. OAK and at TBR his next two times out and then we’ll go from there

Michael’s Hair is: Alright so Michael Harris has been so-so at best in my 10-teamer points league.  He’s like the 40-45 OF YTD.  There are guys like Lamonte Wade, Doyle, and Varsho out there.  Would you swap him out?

Paul Sporer: No, his upside is too rich to cut for that group

Bill: 2 catcher league – Moreno was released.  Would you drop K. Lee to get him?  Thanks

Paul Sporer: I would, yes. I still really like Moreno. Lee has been solid, but even if they’re close on AVG/HR/SB, Moreno gets the team context edge for R/RBI

De-Mize: I always fear a big hit after a fielding misplay, a la Mize giving up a homer after an infield single to Ibanez. But he’s looked good since!

Paul Sporer: Especiallyyyyy when I’m watching a pitcher on my fantasy team lol

Steve: N. Marte (CIN) or J. Dominguez (NYY) – ROS?  Dominguez back about 2 weeks earlier?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d lean toward Dominguez, but not a resounding win

Closers: Please rank for saves/studliness: Mason Miller, Romero, Munoz

Paul Sporer: Miller/Munoz/Romano — Miller is just SOOO good and Oakland has actually been pretty competent giving a legit 8 SVs (9th-most). Munoz was last year’s Miller (though Miller will get more SVs if he stays healthy) and while Stanek has gotten the occasional SV, he’s the primary guy. Romano’s had some bumps but he is the guy when healthy.

Swampguy: Been hanging on to Colt Keith in a 15 team roto 4×4, HR, RBI, SB and OPS league. Is it time to cut bait?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s cuttable everywhere now. Keep him on the radar in case he comes around, but no need to hold

Steve: Are you trying to buy low on Gleybar Torres? What do you expect from him ROS?

Paul Sporer: We discussed him on the latest pod around 26:40 — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1296-sp…

JJ: is a foul tip considered a swinging strike in the fangraph data?

Paul Sporer: Yes, that is the discrepancy you will between us and other sites if the #s aren’t aligning

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: DATT. MAMON.

Re: The Milk Man: Luckily for Cowser, he’s not as washed as Mullins right now…

Paul Sporer: Yeah Mullins needs to be looking over his shoulder bc if they’re comfortable w/Cowser in CF, then there’s the spot needed for Kjerstad. If you have the free space, there is merit to stashing Kjerstad for a bit to see if they give him a real chance

JW: Thanks for all the chats. Would you drop Pfaddt for Clark Schimdt in a 12 tm 5×5?

Paul Sporer: Yes, with Pfaadt facing LAD next wk and Schmidt getting a 2-step, that’s a perfect swap despite the overall talent not being too far apart

Such TurnBulls***: As good as he was, are you dropping Turnbull  in shallow points formats?  I wanna hold him so much but he’s just eating a bench spot picking up 2-4 points per week.

Paul Sporer: Yeah it’s too hard to hold 6-starters in shallow leagues

Guest: Paddack’s blowup yesterday just a bad start, or sign of things to come?

Paul Sporer: Hit barrage against a good team, definitely happens… needs to bounce back at CLE this weekend to salvage the 2-step. v. TEX next week is probably a sit even if he does well in Cleveland this wknd

Also…: Which of these injured 1st basemen would you rather have ROS: CES or Hoskins?

Paul Sporer: Hoskins… so bummed about CES

Maris9: Otto Lopez have any staying power ROS?

Paul Sporer: The power surge is crazy outta nowhere so that won’t hold, but the playing time should stick around. Probably just empty AVG going forward

Loaded: Are you still holding on Christopher Sanchez in 12-team mixers? How about Bibee?

Paul Sporer: Definitely holding Bibee and while I still love Sanchez, he gets a trip to COL next wk so that’s skippable if you prefer someone else on the wire. That 1.50 WHIP is filthy.

Trent: Worried about Crochet innings limit? If you were, what tier of bat would you be looking for?

Paul Sporer: He will assuredly face some type of limit. You still shoot pretty high because the IP he does give will still be pretty valuable

Guest: Does Butto’s demotion secure Christian Scott’s spot in the rotation?

Paul Sporer: Yes, but I think he’s secured either way as he can really emerge to be one of their best arms. And he’ll need to be if they’re going to make a run

larry: justin isnt buying into the davis schneider club. are you with him or does he belong on most 12 tm rosters at this point?

Paul Sporer: I am buying in! I faded during draft season, but just scooped him in my 15-team Main this past weekend. Man just hits lasers. Mustache power… I should’ve known better than to doubt a fellow mustachioed gent!! Full-time burn and results, let’s ride it in 12s!

larry: are you starting elder vs SD this weekend if you need to protect ratios?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say that’s the best way to protect ratios, no

DH: Do either Torkelson or Donovan heat up soon?

Paul Sporer: Tork already is with a couple HRs this week so I’m staying dialed in on him. With Donovan, I hate just being like “oh the BABIP is gonna regress, stay patient” but I meeeaaann, sometimes that IS the answer. Plate skills are there, batted ball metrics are in order… the .231 BABIP is doing most of the harm here

Marty: Does Xander’s line take a substantial hit by hitting 6th all year?

Paul Sporer: It will mean fewer PA/R/RBI but it’s not going to inherently make him worse. He wasn’t finding a lot of success in the leadoff spot

B’ryce Hammer: My Oneil Cruz or his Carroll. Points league, redraft.

I’m rotating Cruz/bregman/Abrams through two lineup spots, with Royce Lewis on the bench. Reynolds is the soft spot in my OF (I know, I know, shallow league)

Paul Sporer: No need to apologize for a shallow league, it’s just a different context – no better or worse than deeper leagues. I have no major issues w/this deal because Carroll can still deliver tons points even if the power doesn’t come all the way back. I don’t expect his .225 BABIP to continue. I’m cool w/this deal

Joe Shlabotnik: Re: Colt Keith–I’ve been looking for reasons to cut, and I’ve felt the need to hold with recent signs of life (underlying + results). It may be fair to say one has to squint to see them…but one doesn’t really have to, since the contrast is so great between that and the previous absolutely *nothing* he was doing before. Seems like he’s the kind of hitter who could put it all together pretty quickly.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely and sometimes you cut these guys just because you need something in the short-term even if you believe the long-term will be OK. I just keep guys like that Watchlisted and will jump back on board if things start to turn

Greg: Re: Crochet, seems there’s a bit of a movement away from hard innings cap and more focus on stuff indicators.  The Mets on Scott, Giants on Hicks/Winn indicated as much.

Paul Sporer: Yeah the hard IP caps simply haven’t worked so I’m all for trying something else

Greg: Probably still be early shutdowns, but I don’t think our traditional +30-50 IP to career highs necessarily apply anymore.

Paul Sporer: Meant to post both at once

Saul Porer: Paul! Love these chats–thanks. 12tm H2H points. Looking to snag some slow starts as I am 7-0 — Receive Olson and Ragans for Adolis, Ranger Suarez and Rizzo. Thoughts? Thanks!!

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I feel like that should work as a 2-for-2. I’d try to narrow it down to 2 of those choices for Olson/Ragans

Bunkie Pan: Do the numbers tell of any hope for Suwinski the Pirate? And a few thoughts on CES, please.

Paul Sporer: I love the K% drop but it hasn’t yielded results w/a pretty substantial power outage. I wonder if he’s sacrificing quality of contact for the sake of lowering the Ks. I’m hanging on in most situations right now, but I do understand the need to move on in 10-teamers, especially 3 OF setups.

CES is a haaard hold with a 4-6 wk injury. I’m probably taking week-to-week in deeper leagues, but I’m moving on in 12s or shallower.

Kevin: I traded Verlander for Pasquantino in my OBP keeper league (my pitching is pretty deep).  How’d I do?

Paul Sporer: Totally dig it!

Boba: Still going?! Trade Caminero ($5) for Bichette (unkeepable) in my AL only OBP league?

Paul Sporer: No, I’d rather hold Caminero for when he comes up

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out. I’ll have my boxscore review show – Boxes & Bull – tomorrow and Friday on Twitch. https://twitch.tv/sporer – tomorrow at 8 am CT, Friday at 10am CT! Have a good one!