Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 14th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Welcome to the chat, thanks for coming out. Running a little shorter today (40-45 mins)

CYgano: Any reason to expect positive regression from Altuve?

Paul Sporer: Ehh, I’m a bit bearish on that. We’re hitting a point where this might just be age-related regression that doesn’t rebound

Bubic, Get Out the Way: Sell high or hold on Kris Bubic? And if sell, what’s a fair category-agnostic return?

Paul Sporer: If you have really good pitching and can help the team, I don’t mind shopping him, but chances are he isn’t fetching a mint and I’m inclined to just ride out this goodness

INsert witty nickname here: No question, just a couple notes: Ben Rice has now caught the 9th inning in 3 blowouts over the last few weeks, including 2 of their last 5 games. Also, Matt Carpenter announced his retirement.

Paul Sporer: Congrats to Carp on a great career and Rice getting C-elig. would be SOOOO massive for me in 2 lgs

Chucky: Manzardo or Busch? ROS and Keeper. Manzardo, looks like he may be developing right before our eyes. Busch however plays in a more lethal and potent offense, hence the propensity for more counting stats.

Paul Sporer: Love what we’ve seen from Manzo since late last yr when he started to turn it on, but Busch is my pick between the 2. Just think he’s the better AVG bet and while Manzo is 3 yrs younger and could develop into Busch, I’ll take the guy who has already developed

MS23: I’ve picked up Liberatore, Abbot, and Luis Ortiz over the past few weeks as streamers, but all have performed well recently and I’ve been holding them. Any of them more obviously a pure streamer than the others in a 12T 5×5 H2H?

Paul Sporer: I definitely trust Libby the most of the trio while Abbott and Ortiz are a bit suspect for me. Happy to be running all three right now and see how it goes, but I’d probably rank ’em Libby, Abbott, Ortiz right now

Kevin: 11-team roto 5×5 OPS redraft. Someone put a blockbuster on the table for me. I get Witt, Yainer Diaz, Matt Chapman, Bednar. I give Austin Riley, Cal Raleigh, Zach Neto. Your thoughts? I’m leaning no based on Neto’s rosy projections and Bednar’s lack of opportunity/stability this year.

Paul Sporer: Ooh that is close. I hear you on Bednar for sure and I definitely do think he adds much to the deal, but man getting Witt is awesome. Diaz has pulled out of his slump, too, so while Raleigh is better, they aren’t crazy far apart. I keep going back-n-forth, it’s fair to me and I’m OK holding if that’s your lean.

1B Help Wanted: 12 team H2H OPS instead of AVG. With Casas out, was me trading Robert Jr for Christian Walker a good pivot? 1B is deceptively shallow and while I have Kurtz, he’s no sure thing.

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, zero issues w/that!

Paul Sporer: Luis Mey. I reluctantly bought my Emilio Pagan share bc I was desperate for SVs and even w/yesterday’s meltdown I’ve gotten 8 SVs, 4.50 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP from him. He’s the same Pagan as always, alluring K-BB but way too many HRs and I’m just not sure Francona is gonna trust him all year

Tim: Name a reliever not currently getting save opportunities with a chance to lead his team in saves this season.

Paul Sporer: Whoops, answered before posting the Q…

Trade Thoughts: 12 team AL-Only, my pitching is running away with it but my bats are terrible. Thinking of offering Eflin for Josh Lowe? Thoughts??

Paul Sporer: Ya that seems like a perfectly fair offer in AL only

Kevin: Any reason to be optimistic on Michael Harris? My patience is running out…

Paul Sporer: Not particularly. In fairness, I’ve always been a Harris skeptic, though. So I come into it negatively and seeing his start does nothing to encourage me, of course

Jim Leyland Palmer: How long would you hold Drew Rasmussen in shallower formats? Unless lights out in his favorable matchup this weekend, time to move on. My league has both W and QS and he hasn’t been relevant for the latter

Paul Sporer: Oof, I realize he’s rough for and QS but is his ratio goodness not enough to hold? I think he’s too talented to cut. Who you pickin up in his place?

Tim: Is what Hunter Brown is doing sustainable?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. Biiig Hunter Brown fan

BEANO: Bailey Falter doesn’t strike guys out but his other numbers are very good — is he a guy to target or is he just on a nice lil streak?

Paul Sporer: Standard streamer type. Might go for the 2-step with both at home next week

Matt: Are you holding Mullins in 12 tms? Alternatives would be Stowers, Varsho, Hays

Paul Sporer: Oh wow, his May has been as ice-cold as his April was blazing-hot. Ya I don’t mind cutting in shallower formats. Gotta play those waves a lot more. I’m stilling Mullins in 15s just bc I’m not sure I’m finding a better option, but any of the 3 you listed have viability to run while he’s ice cold. And maybe you revisit him if/when he heats back up

Insert Witty Name Here: Lawler or K. Campbell in an OBP?

Paul Sporer: Campbell for me for sure. Lawlar still gotta play his way into an everyday role

G4: ERod vs Hicks this afternoon. Pick one to start.

Paul Sporer: Not dying to run either, but E-Rod — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-may-14th-2025/

Matt: how often are you starting gallen? hes been a bit all over the place this year

Paul Sporer: Running him with a modicum of confidence in his next 3: v. COL, at STL, v. PIT… will assess those starts to determine if he gets the go for at ATL

Matt: How are you feeling about Adley? was his 2nd year the ceiling we’ll never see again? babip is low, but how long can we keep making excuses?

Paul Sporer: Ya after the 2 Opening Day HRs, he’s been BRUTAL. The similarities to Matt Wieters just keep piling up for Adley. I do have some concerns. I don’t think it’s particularly actionable yet as I wouldn’t cut him. I might bench him and scoop someone else in a 1-C league but I’m still reluctant to outright ditch him

Jim Leyland Palmer: Can you name some top 100 guys entering this year who you can determine are toast ROS from what you’ve seen so far?

Paul Sporer: Let me be clear that I cannot determine it at this still-early juncture, but some Top 100s I’m concern about include guys we’ve discussed today: Altuve, Harris, Adley, but also Westburg, Semien, Reynolds, Santander. Westburg has a bit of an injury excuse so we’ll see what’s up when he gets back (though he did recently suffer a setback) but the other 6 have me concerned here in mid-May

Guest: You know how we have the SEAGER metric for plate discipline? I propose we just rename Z-Contact to MASON and call it a day.

Paul Sporer: LOOOOOL, done!

Guest: was 7% faab too much for barger

Paul Sporer: No, I like taking the shot on Addison Barger. Dude is yoked and can absolutely mash, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 25-yr old catch fire and have a big summer

Dalton Time: Just putting this out there for the chat: Dodgers are calling up Dalton Rushing

Paul Sporer: Oh let’s goooo!!!

Paul Sporer: (a handful of y’all were on the Rushing call, btw)

Paul Sporer: Can only do a couple more, gotta dip a little early

Mark: In or out on Pressly as a save option?

Paul Sporer: Out. I’m spec’ing Hodge or looking in another bullpen. RPs can turn on a dime so I’m not even saying he can’t get back this yr, but he looks brutal and a contending team like Chicago can’t keep running him out there in leveraged spots

Mr Jim: Roupp or Springs from the wire for a weekend start?

Paul Sporer: Try to include who they’re facing in these… in this case, they’re facing each other’s teams but not each other. I go with Roupp. Springs is better out of Sacramento but I just prefer Roupp’s talent

Mike: Rushing an immediate add with C eligibility or wait to see role?

Paul Sporer: Think I’m jumping right away bc he could be a C-elig. player not having to play C, a fantasy favorite!!

Micah: Re: Altuve’s decline – who would be a reasonable return in a 12-team 20-keeper OBP roto league?

Paul Sporer: An arm you can start 3/4ths of the time? Something like that. I’m not asking huge

Johnny5Alive: Perdomo or McClain ROS? At some point when we’re in the middle of May, it may just be what it is at this point?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK Perdomo for the AVG, but it’s not bc I’m out on McLain. His AVG will regress and he actually has 5 HR/10 SB despite the brutal AVG. (5/9 for Perdomo with a great AVG). Cincy is staying committed to McLain in that 2-spot and I just believe he will turn it on w/the slash line eventually. Hell, I’d try to keep both if that was somehow possible

Joe14: One Catcher roto : Goodman , Agustin Ramirez or Rushing ? Mixed Roto

Joe14: Follow up on that Catcher question , pickup two    TY

Paul Sporer: Crud, that’s tough bc that’s a really intriguing group and having to narrow it down with only 1 starting C is rough. But if I read that right, you’re starting 1 and holding 1 so I think Ramirez heads out and you play the matchups w/Goodman & Rushing. Goodman at home, of course, and then we’ll see how Rushing’s PT develops as a potential OF, sometimes-C

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta dip early. Take care, I’ll be back next week for a standard hour.