Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 8th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Welcome to the chat!

Your Name: Which spring breakouts are you buying and not buying, and why?

Paul Sporer: Nothing yet, it’s all too small of samples, but I will review in mid & late March

Greg: Jazz Chisholm or George Kirby in a keep forever?

Paul Sporer: When it’s a close battle like this, I go for the hitter and that’s the case here for sure, gimme Jazz

Broken Bat: just like poltergeist, he’s back… what is latest on Painter? Crickets from Phillies.

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately, no news scares me, tbh. I wouldn’t be drafting him in any redrafts going on rn

ToothGnasherSuperFlash: Yo Sporer, keep up the good work. Do you get any time off between draft season and Opening Week? You need a vacation!

Paul Sporer: I do not, especially with the new OOTP job, but hey, my job is literally baseball stuff so I’m SUPER lucky! I do get trips to NY and Vegas at the end of the month for drafts so those are essentially vacations for me!! ‘ppreciate you lookin out for me

Justin Mason: We’ve been trying to reach you about your car’s extended warranty

Paul Sporer: I know, stop calling!!!!

Whurld Baysbahll Klasshicc: Who wins?

Paul Sporer: Among the favorites, I’ll go homer with USA and then Netherlands is my underdog to do some things!

Kyle: Which analysts’ patreons do you subscribe to?

Paul Sporer: Reliever Recon!!! https://www.patreon.com/relieverrecon/posts — it’s AMAZING

Brew: Who is in line for a better year:  Hunter Brown or Joe Ryan?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Hunter Brown fan. It really just depends if he can secure a starter role. But absent that SP role for Brown, I’m still leaning Ryan

Bo: What do you think of manaea’s new velocity? Where would you move him up to your rankings?

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely intriguing and has me keeping tabs on him. If the velo sustains through Spring, I will definitely give his projection some juice

robert person: How many innings does hunter brown pitch this year – what are your thoughts on him over the next 2 years

Paul Sporer: I have him for 125 right now and definitely see him getting a full time SP role next year. He’s one of my favorite prospects

Spring Forward This Weekend: Can you give us a few final round picks who could pay dividends in a 12-team 5×5 roto redraft?

Paul Sporer: Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, Jake Fraley CIN, Dylan Carlson STL, Rodolfo Castro PIT, Hayden Wesneski CHC, Kyle Bradish BAL, Nick Martinez SDP, Spencer Turnbull DET

Guest: When in Vegas what are you playing? Or is it more true relax vacation?

Paul Sporer: Doing my Main Event draft and playing some $1/$2 hold ’em!! That is relaxing for me

Guest: I have seen a lot of projections for Josh Jung that think he will have a pretty low batting avg…but doesn’t he have a good hit tool? Small sample size analysis from last year?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s overrating his issues from last yr. He was coming back from injury and admitted he got too swing happy, but he was a good hit tool guy coming up before that. I expect him to get back on track there and be a solid AVG contributor. Huge fan of Jung

Dave: Robbie Ray or Josh Jung (similarly priced) as my last keeper in a 12-team, mixed, keep-6 league? I will likely have the opportunity to draft JRam (to slot in at 3B), if that makes a difference.

Paul Sporer: And given that fandom, I go Jung here

Rob: Tyler O’Neill or Taylor Ward in 5×5 OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Ward here for me!

dave k: Which team is your ‘longest’ shot that you could reasonably see winning the World Series?

Paul Sporer: Diamondbacks & Angels

The New MLB: You adjusting anyone materially due to pitch clock or shift rules (e.g. Kenley or Gallo)

Paul Sporer: No, not really. It will no doubt impact a host of guys, but determining exactly who is a fool’s errand IMO

BabyPoops: Do you believe C Javier is a top 20 SP in dynasty format? Last year I remember it was F Peralta who was soaring up dynasty boards and for some reason I’m having PTSD now.

Paul Sporer: Understandable why you’d have some hesitancy after Peralta, but I think Javier is better equipped to stand up to the rigors of a 6-month SP workload which was the primary concern with Peralta. There is some concern re: Javier’s scant arsenal, too, but his 2 pitches are SO good that I’m less worried about the lack of a third. I’m totally OK with him as a top 20 dynasty SP

Guest: nola or wheeler?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got Nola a few ranks north of Wheels https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert?pos=sp&eligibi…

robert person: can Dom Smith ’23 be Dom Smith ’19?

Paul Sporer: Maybe not a 1:1 unless they bring back the Rabbit Ball, but I don’t think he goes 0 HR again! I put Dom down for a 20 HR season in 535 PA

EG: Is Ohtani a slam dunk #1 pick in daily formats?

Paul Sporer: 100000%

robert person: buying Ronny Mauricio’s resurgence?

Paul Sporer: He was a 20/20 guy at AA last yr so I’m not sure it’s a resurgence, but I presume you’re referencing his excellent Spring start and I do like it but I don’t see him making an impact in the majors until the 2nd half at the earliest and probably more of a September callup this year. That said, I do like Ronny Mo long-term

Brew: Can Varsho carry over his solid production in Toronto this year?  Guy seems to struggle against lefties.

Paul Sporer: I certainly think so, yes. He definitely struggled vL last yr, but then was great against ’em in 2021 so I don’t think we know his true talent there just yet. That said, I’m OK if he loses a few starts vL bc he’ll do enough vR to have a great season as a C-eligible stud

Zev: How are you feeling about CJ Abrams? If I’m a dynasty owner, should I be looking to move him while he still has some prospect shine or are you bullish?

Paul Sporer: Justin is the bigger fan b/w the 2 of us, but I like him well enough to stay bought in. We discussed him on our Post Hype episode — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1152-po… — and I came away feeling he should be better than he was last year but maybe still not a full on breakout yet

Bucco: You’re pretty high on Ke’Bryan, a guy who’s slugged about .360 in his last 1,000 PAs. What do you see in the profile that makes you think he’ll put it together?

Paul Sporer: I feel like I’ve outlined it in a couple pods, it’s not really anything more than I’ve said on those pods — I believe in his pedigree. He was given a 50-grade Raw Power and while we haven’t seen it at the big league level, I still think he can tap into it. He’s really only had the one full season (last yr) and we haven’t seen the best of him just yet. He’s at 10 HR/600 PA so I’m not even projecting much a surge by seeing a 14-17 HR potential. A fully healthy Hayes is better than the guy we’ve seen and I’m hoping we get that version this year

Dave: Boyd Boyd Boyd Boyd Boyd

Paul Sporer: #BoydBoyz stand up!

Broken Bat: TBR… so Mr. Mead, you sign the contract and we bring you up now, don’t and roll the dice. Do you think the Atl. Formula is now being copied cat?

Paul Sporer: I think it was around before Atlanta ran with it as we’ve seen these signings sprinkled across the league for a good while now. I think it’s a great way to operate and while some will lose (Singleton, Evan White), it’s still worth it for the teams and players in most cases

norman: Bae make pirates opening day roster.?  Eaton start for the Royals ?

Paul Sporer: Bae doesn’t necessarily have an everyday spot carved out so if they want him getting consistent PA, he might hit AAA again. I’d say 60/40 he makes the roster. Eaton has a chance to make the starting OF with the Drew Waters injury and should at least be on the team even if it’s in a backup position. I like Eaton more than Bae

dave k: How does Pitching work in the type of leagues you play? Is it based on starts or IP or something else I don’t even know?

Paul Sporer: I primarily play 5×5 leagues so W, ERA, WHIP, K, and SV. So Volume is definitely a major factor

Bo: Think Edward Cabrera beats out Braxton garret?

Paul Sporer: I do think Cabrera gets the gig with Garrett being the 6th

Lucca: Hi Paul.  I am in an NL only league.  Prospects like Carroll are gone, called up last year.  Assuming Jordan Walker makes the roster this year, what NL prospects would you prioritize, perhaps your top five that are not on the big club the beginning of the season.  I have the 2nd pick in our supplemental draft. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Here’s my Top 120 dynasty prospect rankings — https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2023-fantasy-rankings/su… — are you doing re-draft or keeper/dynasty?

robert person: Brendon Donovan now gonna hit HRs??  you buy this?

Paul Sporer: Not quite yet, but I’m keeping tabs on it. Power is one of the stats to watch in Spring. If guys are hitting well above their established power norm, that can be a big indicator. Here’s the front page article about Donovan for anyone who missed it: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brendan-donovan-but-with-homers/

Matt: I have 12 SPs and 10 RPs in my DC, is that enough?

Paul Sporer: That’s a bit light. I usually go closer to 24-26 pitchers, but I’m not some DC master so I might be wrong

Bill: Should I get a shamrock shake?

Paul Sporer: Definitely

YessirNosir: Hey Paul, How far you dropping Yodran Alvarez in ADP. Even if you’re completely out, is there a point where the risk is worth the reward?

Paul Sporer: I’m not out and I’d be willing to take him in the late-2nd round or later

Dan: Where does Ohtani rank in weekly leagues?

Paul Sporer: Still an easy 1st rounder for me

Matthew: What’s your new OOTP job?

Paul Sporer: I’m the Content Director for the Perfect Team mode so I’m working with a team to create the gameplan for the cards that will come out over the course of the season

Kate: Also, I’m dying at Eric’s nickname for Szymborski!  Danny ZiPS haha!

Paul Sporer: I LOVED it, too

ToothGnasherSuperFlash: got any Adalberto shares?

Paul Sporer: I do not. Recovering Mondesi addict

John: Are you concerned about Wheeler’s injury outlook? 32 years old w/ shoulder/foreman issues in the past year? should i fade him based on injury worries?

Paul Sporer: You cannn, but I don’t run from him bc of it. His history raises his concern, but I wouldn’t take a less talented arm who you deem safer due to health bc every pitcher is a major injury risk. So I respect that previous injury is a key indicator for future injury, but I don’t really buy the notion of safety when it comes to health

Matthew: Are you fading guys like Gausman who really seems to be struggling with the clock, or Nestor etc… who have to change their delivery?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily a full fade, but definitely monitoring it and will use as a tiebreaker against him if I’m facing a pick b/w him & another SP

Lamar: Can stars and scrubs work in an NL only auction league?

Paul Sporer: Definitely, in fact I think a lot of ppl do stars & scrubs in Only lgs… it can be tough if you lose a star though so there’s risk

Paul Sporer: Any injuries in leagues that deep are going to be painful, though

Dave: On a scale of 1 – Derek Hill, how worried are you about Tork?

Paul Sporer: 3

Siri: Are you guys doing the bold predictions articles this year? Those are great.

Paul Sporer: Definitely. We’ll get ’em going a bit earlier since sometimes they come out too late in draft season

Kate: Just wanted to say that these pods with Eric are absolutely awesome.  I know Eric is super busy, but would love to see this be a recurring thing in some form or fashion.  Maybe even include Tess too!

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much. He was amazingly generous with his time and I agree that getting Tess on makes sense, too. I kinda wanna have at least 1 prospect pod a month during the week with me & a prospect guest, either in-house or out (James Anderson, Matt Thompson, Chris Welsh, etc…)

Bill: Keeper decision I have due today by 5PM, please help!!! 5×5 roto snake, 23 rounds, keep 2, I can keep Gleyber Torres and lose my 19th rounder,  Camilo Doval and lose my 18th, Luis Castillo and lose my 9th, and Arozarena and lose my 6th. My calculations say Torres and Doval get my the most value, but Castillo in the 9th is tempting.. so is Randy.. thanks!!!

Paul Sporer: All are legitimately good options, but I’m going with Castillo in the 9th. He’s an ace-caliber pitcher who I think could have his best season yet this year!

Jim: How you view guys like Bryan Abreu, who were completely dominant but no path to saves vs guys like Cueto, Plesac, etc., who are pretty useless as SPs?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size for sure, but I disagree with the Cueto slander unless you just don’t buy any of his ’22 output. I hear you with guys like Plesac in 10s and 12s as he really seems to be just a mid-4.00s ERA with modest K output so not even super streamable. Cueto’s Ks suck, too, but better ratios IMO.

Anyway, if you are talking about 10- and 12-tm leagues, you’re likely better off trying to stream than getting 3-4 IP a week from the Abreus of the world as even with good ratios & high K rates, I’m not sure they move the needle enough. The deeper you go, the more they can be worthy v. the likely streamer options you’ll have in 15+ team leagues as the likes of Cueto & Plesac won’t even be available

ToothGnasherSuperFlash: How much will the new shift rules impact who plays 2B? We’ve seen more and more big bodies types (eg, Mike Moustakas) at the keystone in the last decade. Will the position now require more range and athleticism?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely see it hurting the potential PT of those types including a hitter I really like in LA – Michael Busch. I think if teams have a better defensive option, they are likely willing to trade the bat for glove more often after years of the reverse given the shift’s ability to hide some of the defensive issues

Lefty blues: Why are ppl so high on ONeil Cruz and Jazz when they get DESTROYED by lefties?

Paul Sporer: Bc the upside is so very rich and you still get at least 2/3rds of your PA vR.

Brew: J. Lopez at $7 or Duran at $13 in an AL only 5 x 5?

Paul Sporer: I think at the price difference, I’m leaning Lopez as I believe he will be the primary closer. If the price were close, I’d go Duran, but not at 2x the price

Moop: Please rank these SPs: Bradish
Tyler Anderson
E Rodriguez
J Suarez
Maeda
Urquidy
Eflin
Mahle
Whitlock

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert?pos=sp&eligibi…

Siri: I like Rendon for a bounce back (assuming healthy). Great lineup spot. How reasonable is 20 HR / 100 RBI?

Paul Sporer: If he stays healthy, it’s totally reasonable, but that’s a LAAAARRRGGEEE “if” with Rendon

Kyle: Which would surprise you more: deGrom throws 200 IP or Buxton gets 600 PA this year?

Paul Sporer: Buxton. We’ve seen deGrom do that 3x!

Siri: Feel like Giancarlo is being slept on this year? He had a down year, but he’s still a masher when healthy.

Paul Sporer: Maybe not slept on as he’s ranked mid-30s in the OF, but it does feel like the fact that he hit .273 in 2021 is being forgotten bc of last year’s .211 mark. I think he is fairly rated with the chance to greatly out-earn his draft price

Siri: What do you project for Oswald Cabrera’s final line?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got him for .246/.307/.435 with 15 HR/17 SB in 430 PA right now

Kate: With Quintana down, who takes the 5th spot in the Mets rotation?  Do we have a lean yet on who this is or is it more likely a spring competition now?

Paul Sporer: While I’m a Megill fan, I’d actually lean to David Peterson, who I also like, just not quite as much as Megill. And that’s if Q misses time which isn’t guaranteed just yet

Pedro: I’ve seen a lot of disagreement about Andrew Vaughn. Thoughts about him for 2023?  Thanks in advance

Paul Sporer: I consider myself a fan – .280/.342/.473 with 23 HR, 73 R, 78 RBI in 589 PA

Rick Pukka: Another Taylor Ward comparison Q: Ward v B Reynolds both straight up and if Ward keeps in the 10th round and Reynolds keeps at 7. 6×6 OBP and Slugging league.

Paul Sporer: I prefer Ward in both scenarios. I’m a HUGE fan of his. He finished the season healthy and got back on track. He mentioned the shoulder was the reason for his summer swoon and once it was back, so was he. Love him atop that lineup, too

ToothGnasherSuperFlash: Remember when a vocal group of baseball fans were all upset about the NL DH?

Paul Sporer: I think some of ’em still are, but plenty have thankfully realized it’s just fine

tumtum: Jeremy Pena’s got some fantastic sprint figures. Could he received a big boost in steals from the new changes?

Paul Sporer: He certainly could, but I do worry a bit about his poor OBP which could in turn hamper his SB chances

Driveline: Is there empirical evidence that going to Driveline boosts pitchers? News just dropped that Joe Ryan, Griffim Jax, and Caleb Thielbar went, as did Tyler Mahle

Paul Sporer: I haven’t seen a study. My guess would be mixed results, tbh

markusbarkus: Am I crazy to keep Melendez at $3 over Vlad Jr. at $36 in my AL only?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily. I’d make sure to calculate the inflation, though. If Vlad is likely to go $60+, then obviously that $36 looks a whole lot better. That said MJM at $3 is great no matter how you slice it

Boris: What happened to Logan Webb’s K%? Expect a rebound to 25+%?

Paul Sporer: A 2-pt. dip in swinging strike rate hurt for sure. He could recover it, but I didn’t get him allllll the way back with 191 Ks in 200 IP

PL: Did your conversation with Eric give you any hope for Tork? Seems like not

Paul Sporer: Not anymore than I had, no. I’m taking a shot bc the price is low, but I don’t expect a HUUUGE season or anything

Jason Heyward: Do you buy that I’ll be the main AB getter in CF for the Dodgers?

Paul Sporer: Is that being said? Perhaps if the swing change works and gets his bat on track, but as it stands right now, I doubt he’s the guy (again, unless I missed news on that)

Pedant Pete: Why are the Rockies?

Paul Sporer: Wonderful question! If I had the answer, I could probably be their GM, tbh

S+H: Too cute having Munoz and Duran on the same S+H squad? Or awesome maybe?

Paul Sporer: No, the Holds aspect makes it much more viable. Hell, I’ve done 2 elite closers in SV lgs, so this is just that for S/H and likely cheaper than I paid for my 4th/5th round duo of closer studs yrs ago when I pulled that gambit

Bobbo: Who has a better year – Jonathan India or Andres Gimenez?

Paul Sporer: Gimenez, his SB output gives him an easy edge over India

Get Lowe: Is Josh Lowe gonna trick me again? Been getting regular run and batting leadoff, not too many k’s…

Paul Sporer: Probably, but at a much cheaper price at least!

Jeff: How worried should I be about Helsley’s velo and injury?  I need to make my last keeper decision and it’s Helsley $10 vs. Devin Williams $14 since all my other options are hurt (S+H league)

Paul Sporer: I have some concerns and would go to Williams in your case

Ethan Hunt: Is there any hope for Mateo sticking at SS the whole season?

Paul Sporer: Some, but not if he totes a .267 OBP again

Max_Mantis: I nearly missed this chat b/c I was listening to the marathon AL overview with Longenhagen.  Really, you guys spoil us.

Paul Sporer: I was super happy with those episodes and I’m so glad y’all have enjoyed them!

Damian: Why is luzardo 62 on your sp ranks? Health concerns , lack of wins or….?

Paul Sporer: I gave him a 3.54 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 161 Ks, and 8 Ws in 144 IP and that landed 62.

Anonymous: Ever play in a league that distinguishes RF, CF, and LF? (Or at least COF)

Paul Sporer: Years ago, yes

Ethan Hunt: Do you think Volpe will end up playing the majority of the Yankees SS this season?

Paul Sporer: No, not yet. I agree with Eric that Oswald Peraza is the guy this year

Craig: Johan Oviedo emerge in PIT as a starter? Had a nice season in 2022, across STL and PIT… increased K per 9, reduced HR per 9…. 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP. Had success both as a SP and RP.

Paul Sporer: Yes! I’m an Oviedo fan!! Already got him in some Draft Champions leagues and he’ll definitely be a watchlist guy in my redraft leagues and possibly a reserve pick if he secures a rotation role (on the outside looking in right now)

Ethan Hunt: Jose Abreu – monster season or continued power decline?

Paul Sporer: I see him taking advantage of the Crawford Boxes and bringing some pop back for sure

Bart: Ref is Mining the news about Heyward (ie he has a leg up on CF)

Paul Sporer: Ah yes, my bad on not recalling that — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-3-7-23/ If he can carve out the strong side platoon, there could be something there

Anonymous: if Jordan Walker makes the team opening day, who’s the first FAABapalooza guy? Eury Pérez?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s more of a summer guy. I’d say Pfaadt, Baty, or one of the Dodgers SPs — Miller/Stone

Guest: I just noticed you have Tyler Stephenson as the #4 catcher in your rankings! That’s pretty bullish. Just splitting time at 1B/DH or something more?

Paul Sporer: I think he picks up where last year’s breakout left off. I still see a power surge coming

Stick to Sporer-tzball: any concerns with Burnes given the friction with  ownership after arbitration.

Paul Sporer: Nah, I hate the arb process and think it’s insane to go shit on your player for a few thousand bucks when you’re a rich organization, but what’s he gonna do, tank his own numbers?

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, 2 hours in the books, but I gotta get goin! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!