Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 27th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Welcome everyone!

Too Many Mooks: What is the spring training performance you feel the most illogically encouraged by?

Paul Sporer: Gotta be the Tigers pitching, lol

Guest: Hi Paul, AL only league.  Pick two to keep, all cost the same: E Carter, Grayson , and Ragans.  Thanks

Paul Sporer: Without knowing the scoring or anything, I’d say Ragans/Carter. Tough to get rid of any of ’em, but I’d def go 1 P and Carter

Sabey Sabes: Yamamoto’s stuff was NASTY. Feel bad for hitters once he course corrects that command.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m 0% worried, still flashed the nastiness like you say

Ippei You Back: I always go light on closers (5×5 cats; I punt saves in the draft and try to find them later on the wire), and I have Jax and Uribe but J. Lawrence is on the wire. Lawrence was quite good before he flamed out from overuse. Worth adding Lawrence over Uribe? (Also given holds do nothing for me)

Paul Sporer: I don’t hate that move as Milwaukee will likely rotate between the 3 guys – Megill, Uribe, Payamps

Matt Tuiasosopo: Would you cut Alvarado for Suarez?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think so

Tork This: If you had a wealth of 1B and Rengifo was your 3B, would you give up Tork for Jung in a deep league that adds BB-K as a 6th roto category?

Paul Sporer: That’s defensible, sure. I like Jung long-term. Huge Tork fan, but understand it given your setup

Sabey Sabes: I grabbed DL Hall to fill an RP slot, but now sounds like a rotation piece to start. Worth hanging onto?

Paul Sporer: Nick Pollack was talking him up big time on our new pod yesterday saying the command and control looked markedly better

Insert Witty Name Here: Think Freeman steals 20+ bags again?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t bet it. He’s a savvy base runner, but I’d project 8-11 range

Matt W.: Good luck tonight. I think you should one up Justin take Cole 1.1. Will you be streaming the draft?

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL. Tyvm, yes I will be streaming it. Live at 9pm CT (or a little before) on Twitch for my Main Event — https://twitch.tv/sporer

Phil: My last 2 starters are Gil and Mize. Should I consider dropping any for DL Hall or Stone?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m fine w/who you have. I love Stone, but that’s a similarly talented group

Matt Tuiasosopo: Please rank these pick up options (normal pitching cats + QS): Gavin Stone, Louie Varland, Jared Jones

Paul Sporer: The order listed

Anon: Can you please rank for 2024 roto? M. Meyers, C. Mize, J. Jones

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Herbie: So I’m all in on Detroit pitchers. Im in a keeper league and drafted Flaherty, Mize, Olson, and Manning. Manning obviously got sent down. Should I hold on for a couple of weeks or just burn and churn for Canning or Houck?

Paul Sporer: Without knowing league size, prob burn & churn bc it seems like a 10 or 12 w/those guys on the wire

Jon: would you rather start the season with Jackson Merrill or Ahmed Rosario on your bench? third option would be to have both and dump AJ Minter.

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Merrill fan

Ippei You Back: Justin Mason said to give Kyle Harrison no leash and cut bait if the control isn’t there. How many starts do I have to watch before I should be fearful his control is bad again and move on? I did spend a 23rd round pick on him so it’s not like he cost much (but he does have more upside than most in that range)

Paul Sporer: 1-3, depending how you feel

Paul Sporer: Don’t need to give post-20th rounders a huge leash

Robert: If Victor Scott II does well before Dylan Carlson comes back from injury, do you see Dylan Carlson being traded?

E: How long does Victor Scott last? Is he gone when carlson comes back regardless of performance (unless it’s shockingly otherworldly)?

Paul Sporer: Not sure he’d be traded. It’s just so hard to say on things like that. It’s pure guess so I’m not sure it’s even worth doing so. There’s room for both to be on the roster and share time. Michael Siani isn’t a must hold for them

Porcho Villa: Better 3B backup plan for Royce “Glass Joe” Lewis: Ke’Bryan Hayes or Morel? (12 team 5×5 OBP)

Paul Sporer: I love Ke’Breezy

Pedro: Paul:  What to do about Woo?  I had been excited to keep him at $6 in an AL only 5×5 but now I think I have to let him go and keep Pivetta ($7) and Kutter ($6) instead.  Thoughts?  Thx

Paul Sporer: I’d have kept Kutter ahead of him already personally, though I do understand the excitement on Woo as I like him, too. But yeah, I’d keep either over him based on the injury

Guest: Which bounce-back season do you see as more likely, Stanton? Or Trevor Story?

Paul Sporer: Stanton. It’s entirely health for him, he still MASHES the ball. I mean, it’s probably all health for Story, too, but I just like the Stanton gamble even though it’s unlikely he plays 130+

Guest: With so much potential in the 10-30 range of SP, what is the value of drafting any top 10 SP not named Strider in the top 3 rounds when you can add a dependable bat?

Paul Sporer: It’s a super risky SP range, tbh. So much unproven talent despite the massive upside. I’m totally fine passing after the first 8-9 until it gets to around SP25 or so

MF Luder: Am I crazy for being higher than market on Tyler O’Neill?

Paul Sporer: No, he’s always a “buy the dip” guy for me. Never buying high, though. So if he pops off this year, I’ll fade again in ’25

Mike Piazzaria: James Paxton odds to 10+ wins over 50%? Why can’t be have a Tony Gonsolin but old season?

Paul Sporer: Bc of his health profile and age. Talent wise we can, but it’s so hard to bet on more than 90-100 IP. I don’t mind drafting him, though

PhillyLover33: Do you think the Phillies will go after Wander Franco?

Paul Sporer: No

Herbie: Sorry for not including league details on Manning question. 12 team head to head 5×5 with QS. 30 players per roster. Still burn and churn?

Paul Sporer: Yeah probably so. I love Manning and was excited for the breakout, but if guys like Canning are out there, who I also love, there’s no reason to hold Manning

Sabey Sabes: Chat favorite Reynaldo Lopez had quite a spring…

Paul Sporer: He did indeed! Drafted him in my Saturday Main Event!!!

Insert Witty Name Here: In a league with an innings cap, how do you feel about using a P slot on someone like Bryan Abreu who won’t get many saves, but will rack up the K’s?

Paul Sporer: That’s fine. Basically IP cap leagues then become K/9 leagues so managing things makes some sense

Jason: O/U 450 PA for Victor Scott II this season?

Paul Sporer: I’d bet the under, but hope I’m wrong given how fun & exciting he could be

Guest: Is MJ Melendez a full time player or will he be platooning?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll have some sits vL, but I don’t know if it’s a 100% strict platoon that he’ll never start vL… but he had a sub-600 OPS v them last yr so it’s not all bad to lose those PA

Tony Buckets: Hang onto Matt McLain in a keeper knowing he may not even play this year?

Paul Sporer: Ehhhh, if you have a lot of IL slots and it doesn’t prevent you from improving your roster… otherwise, no

PhillyLover33: Who will hit a home run tomorrow in the brewers and Mets game?

Paul Sporer: Rhys Hoskins

Main: What pick do you have tonight?

Paul Sporer: I got the 1!!! #AcuñaTime

Don Bon Jovi: Corey Seager for Bryce Harper straight up in keeper league for team deep at SS with no starting 1B.  Do it?

Paul Sporer: Yep, no problems there

Benny Jett: is kimbrel the closer for BAL all of 2024?

Paul Sporer: I’m not the biggest Kimbrel fan, but if he can pitch like he did last yr, he’ll hold it. That’s a decently sized IF though

Rat: We have daily lineup changes.  What is a good site that predicts the weather and predicts what games will get canceled??

Paul Sporer: Kevin Roth is my go to weather guy — https://twitter.com/KevinRothWx

Belly Itcher: Louie Varland has got absolutely POUNDED his last couple of spring outings … should I drop him for Jack Flaherty?

Paul Sporer: I thought the Tigers nickel & dimed in. Haven’t seen the Braves start. You can make that move, but I’m not out on Varland personally

Matt: 12 team roto (OBP/TB instead of AVG/HR). Going with OF of Nimmo, Happ, Soler. But part of me wonders if I should start Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 instead of one. He’s got 4 games (3 for Nimmo/Happ) and those KBO/ST numbers are gaudy

Paul Sporer: You could take the extra game, that’s fine. It’s a personal choice for me, not a definitive must

McClain: Drafted McClain in 11 team. Backups are Drury and Gelof. But need some depth. How long should I hold him or waive him for Cronenworth, Rodgers, Castro, Berti?

Paul Sporer: With the surgery, it’s an insta-cut in redraft. Croney or Rodgers is probably where I’d go

Jon: How long to trust Canning or Varland?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size & what’s available

Whaler: No one the entire spring has much of a handle on Yariel Rodriguez.  The Jays spent some serious coin on him.  I’m surprised there weren’t more dart throws on him in the “expert” leagues.

Paul Sporer: Yeah might end up being a big waiver scoop

Jon: How to rankL Varland, Canning, Mize, Olson

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Main: Since you have the 1, most Aces are plucked, are you diving in on Skubal for the snake 2/3?

Paul Sporer: We’ll have to see tonight

Red Sox: What to do with Red Sox rotation? I like Pivetta and Crawford but want to add Whitlock too? Bello is also free.

Paul Sporer: I like all 5 Red Sox starters to a degree. So depends who’s being cut and league size

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: DATT. MAMON.

Roller Coaster of Love: Joey Gallo hasn’t hit over .200 since 2019.  Is this the year?

Paul Sporer: Why would it be?

El Nino: Am I crazy for thinking Garret Crochet could be a steal SP?

Paul Sporer: No, not necessarily. It’s a major longshot, but he’s priced to buy

quadrangular: O’Neill or Varsho this year?

Paul Sporer: Varsho slightly for me, but happy to pivot to O’Neill if Varsho goes

El Kabong: Severino gonna be lights out and make 30 starts?

Paul Sporer: Allll about health w/him

Mike Piazzaria: Kyle Harrison control issues well documented- are we sleeping on the upside there? With respect to Vince Velasquez, you can’t fake 10+ strike out games

Paul Sporer: But doesn’t citing Velasquez kinda undercut what you’re saying? Not that you can fake ’em, but that they don’t guarantee any future success

MF Luder: I have a lot of Matt McLain and in many of those leagues I also have Andres Gimenez. Do you think its worth packaging Gimenez with something to try and getting a higher tier 2B? Or ride with Gimenez? Both of these are 16 team, 1 is h2h points, 1 is h2h cat

Paul Sporer: Roll with Gimenez, I like him this year on the bounce back

Fly High Fre-bird: Why hasn’t Sal Frelick’s SB upside materialized? Is there upside to a 25-30 SB season in there?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say it hasn’t materialized, he only has 227 MLB PA and averaged 29 per 600 PA in the minors. So yeah, I think 25-30 is very plausible if he’s getting on base consistently. Adding the 3B elig. is intriguing, too, I like drafting him

Mike Piazzaria: James Wood crushed spring training. Is this a service time arbitrage and we should expect him late April early May or will they drag it into the summer? Bonus for any thoughts on Dylan Crews timing

Paul Sporer: Nah, he can use more seasoning. It was a great ST, but he has 87 gms at AA as a 20-yr old w/a 34% K rate. I don’t think it’s out of pocket to send him to Triple-A. Love Crews and think he could be up by Memorial Day if he goes down and hammers Triple-A. Wood/Crews could really turn that Washington offense around this summer. Very interesting potential there

Guest: When will Chase DeLauter be called up?

Paul Sporer: With the season coming up, I want to point out that I won’t do tooo many “when they coming up” questions bc it’s a pure guess. Even for the folks who are dialed in on prospects and have front office connects, you still just never know so I don’t wanna anchor y’all to some random dates. DeLauter was bananas in spring and could be up quickly if he cooks in Triple-A… or Cleveland will give him away for nothing like Benson and Nolan Jones lololol

Yank’d: Berti or Neto for MI bench?

Paul Sporer: Neto… though it seems Berti is going to start at 3B for NYY

Mr. Honey: Flip-side to the Holliday debate: Colton Cowser made the club but won’t play everyday.  Does that stunt his development?

Paul Sporer: Never know for sure bc every player is different. I think the risk is if they’re like once a week players. I think Cowser should be playing 3-4x a week with a chance for more if he rakes

Too Many Mooks: Will Smith 10/$140 extension, fyi

Paul Sporer: HOT!!!

Paul Sporer: Royals have their closer forever

Paul Sporer:

SteveO: Trade Cowser for Lux?

Paul Sporer: Coinflip, I’m a huge fan of both, so take your preference or team need based on position

Smiling Politely: With LAD C Will Smith signing a 10 yr deal today, is it safe to assume their catching depth will end up starting for other teams in the next year or two (a la Ruiz)?

Paul Sporer: Yep, I think if your team isn’t expected to contend and has a tradeable pitcher, maybe you start seeing how Diego Cartaya or Dalton Rushing fits into your org

Thomas D: Eury or Bobby Miller?

Paul Sporer: Bobby Miller firmly for me

Guest: Can Tyler Freeman be a 20/20

Paul Sporer: 20 2Bs perhaps… I don’t think he’s got 20 HR pop

Paul: I am scouring the bottom of the barrel at 3B.  Maikel, Colt, or Chapman?  OBP and SLG league

Paul Sporer: Colt Keith!!!

Ippei You Back: Which mid-round (5-10 rounds) pick do you think is going to be the Keston Hiura of 2024 (I made the mistake of buying into the Keston hype in 2020 and sold for a mediocre pitcher before he bottomed out)?

Paul Sporer: Elly? lol he’s a 2nd rounder though!!!

Paul Sporer: Nolan Jones is probably the real one in that range. And he’s tough for me bc I’m a fan of the player, but just cannot pay that price. Like Hiura, he K’s a ton and rode a huge BABIP

Smudge: Should I feel comfortable with hader and Munoz at RP?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I would

Paul: Trade MH for Machado?  Steals are not a concern.

Paul Sporer: MH?

Paul Sporer: Ohhh Michael Harris

Paul Sporer: That’s a fine deal IMO

jj: weather: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Paul Sporer: Perfect! I believe Roth contributes to that, too, right?

JB: Lawrence Butler had a big spring. Any chance for a breakout?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I had some interest in him late last year and he has the playing time on lock. Oakland has a handful of intriguing bats — Noda, Butler, Rooker

New vs. Old: Jackson Merrill or Jon Berti in 10tm redraft following this trade to the Yankees?

Paul Sporer: Still Merrill for me. I think it’s pretty short term for Berti as a regular and he just doesn’t hit v well

Chris: Judge or Soto in 6 x 6 league with OPS?

Paul Sporer: I took Soto over Judge in my Main on Saturday and Judge was available

Guest: Just want to say I’ve been coming to these chats since the Eno days and remember the “MATT. DAMON.” bit and hope it never goes away. Would love an oral history if it’s just the same guy for a decade or if different people have picked up the mantle, like batman

Paul Sporer: Lololol I love it!!!

Chris: G. Stanton is done. True or false?

Paul Sporer: Per my earlier love of him, I’d have to say false

Royce Lewis Simp: MLB The Show 24, struggling to think of what franchise I’d want to run/rebuild. Have you played yet and have a franchise you’d try to run aside from DET.

Paul Sporer: Have played just a little, gonna dive in more during April. March is just a crazy busy month. Haven’t thought about a franchise to run, but maybe KC? Pittsburgh? Cincy?

Chris: Most useful fantasy asset in Yankees rotation in 2024?

Paul Sporer: Definitely Soto

Paul Sporer: Well not definitely, Judge rules, too

Porcho Villa: Best arm to round out the staff (12 team 5×5 QS): Canning, Kikuchi, T. Rogers, J. Jones, DL Hall

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s a fun group. I’d play the schedule and I don’t have memorized off the dome. Canning/Rogers have been my faves in draft season, but in a 12 w/more depth on the wire, let the short-term schedule drive your choice

Günter II: Do you think it would be a massive blunder to take Pablo Lopez in the 2nd round when his adp is after 40??

Paul Sporer: No. He’s been going there in the NFBC universe. ADP is a tool, not a locked in bible

E: Going back to the closer battle question, who are you speculating on more in terms of save opps: hoffman or mcarthur?

Paul Sporer: Hoffman is my favorite closer spec

Pete: Thoughts on Parker Meadows this season?

Paul Sporer: Trying not to get overly hyped as a Tigers fan, but really excited about him both as a real life player and fantasy asset

Sandy Kazmir: Is the acquisition of Ben Rortvedt by TB the final signal teams needed that catcher throwing is imperative with new rules?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think we’re def seeing a shift toward some more arm-oriented Cs and then they’ll be a full shift once we get robo umps

Hockey Puck: Reid Detmers breakout year? Or still just meh?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been a fan from the jump, I’m staying bought in

diadem: Will Josh Rojas stick as the Phillies starting CF?

Paul Sporer: Not if he’s a complete zero w/the bat

Baltimorons: Do the Orioles ever add more starting pitching? Is the useless Angelos sons selling the team license for them to finally spend money on pitching????

Paul Sporer: I imagine they’ll add in-season as needs arise, depends how Bradish & Means go

Nathan: Thoughts on Jeremy Pena? Swing changes for real?  Need a SS to replace Mclain in one league, its between him, Arcia, and Tovar as the best available.

Paul Sporer: I have a slight lean to Tovar out of that trio, but any of ’em work if you have a strong lean elsewhere

Jimson: How do we feel about a bounce back year for Rhys Hoskins?

Paul Sporer: I’m keen on Hoskins! Really think he can rake in Milwaukee

The 6ix: 12-team AL-only Ultra Roto; should I be concerned about Luke Raley’s spring? I have him for $1.

Paul Sporer: It was a wretched spring, but I wouldn’t be overly concerned bc he’s just a buck. If it doesn’t come together, you can move on w/ease

Guillotine: Any Guillotine Leagues this year? SO FUN

Paul Sporer: No but I reeeaallllyy wanna get in one next year, they seem like an absolute blast

Bob: Rhys Hoskins or Christian Walker in an OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Still lean Walker, but Hoskins is a great backup if Walker goes

Fred: Best guess ETA for Holliday?

Paul Sporer: Early May

Bench: Have Jung in 10tm, should start KeBry or grab Frelick and wait for elig at 3b?

Paul Sporer: Ke’Breezy

Ryan: What’s up with the lack of love for Brayan Rocchio, seems like his making the team is going under the radar for a guy that could swipe 20+ with a decent BA.

Paul Sporer: Yeah good call, He’s a guy I became a fan of in OOTP as he became my shortstop for like 5 years in a franchise. That doesn’t mean he’ll be good IRL, but it gets me to pay more attention to guys in real life and Rocchio could be a solid deep leaguer this year w/some shallow lg upside

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta do a tight hour today. Have some work to get done before my draft tonight, but you can come to my Twitch chat and ask your questions during my draft! https://twitch.tv/sporer — starts a little before 9pm CT!! Take care and good luck this first half-week. We’ll talk next week!