Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 26th, 2025

Paul Sporer: One day away!!! I’m so amped for baseball to be back!

Catcher Conundrum: End-gamed my catcher. Landed Wong. Replace with Ruiz, Baldwin, or Goodman?

Paul Sporer: They’re all of a particular group. I miiight lean Goodman in hopes that the Jones trade opens more time for him in the OF and he can get more non-catching catcher reps, but I don’t overwhelmingly lean toward any of the 4

Matt: How are you thinking about Cam Smith? Due to some unforeseen circumstances, I left my auction with a ton of money and a shakey OF (Seiya, Trout, Bleday/Friedl). Should I be using my leverage and going high on him, or do you think that he’s not a strong enough bet to be a productive OF’er?

Paul Sporer: I’m intrigued but not bending over backwards to get him. Looks like a mixed lg since you have AL/NL OFs so I think it’s prudent to expect decent numbers but nothing overwhelming. Maybe he’s this year’s iteration of Jackson Merrill and takes the league by storm, but I’d stop short of going high on him. I see some solid pop being in HOU with a modest AVG and R/RBI totals since he’ll be in the bottom half of the lineup

Jonny: Ended my draft with Vladdy, Tatis, Acuna. Any other Juniors I should target?

You buying into Leiter hype this year? Have Grant Holmes and Luzardo at the end of my rotation and thinking of making the move for Leiter because I just dream on upside

Paul Sporer: Bo Bichette isn’t a junior, but there’s a lot of hype for him to rebound! I think I prefer Holmes & Luzardo over Leiter. All 3 have tangible upside, but I think Leiter’s floor is the lowest (well, outside of injury which can obv sink anyone)

Brad: Verlander 5×5 roto, viable?

Paul Sporer: Yeah at least worth seeing where he’s at while healthy

M: SP flyer to put on bench. Max Meyer, Jack Leiter or Casey Mize? Also just wondering thoughts on Mize in general haven’t heard a lot of talk about him but his preseason Ks have me wondering

Paul Sporer: At the risk of being a homer, Mize is my guy here! Last chance saloon w/the former #1 overall pick so if we don’t see a real step forward this year, I’m done buying the spring hype. But ya, a refined arsenal has netted a legit K% boost paired w/the recent success of DET’s pitching development team has me excited. Meyer and Leiter have some juice in their own right, but Mize is my fave of the trio

comish4lif: Opening Day is tomorrow, whoo hoo!

Do you have any good resources to share for NL Only, Auction fantasy players?

So much content seems to be for 12 team mixed snake drafters…

Paul Sporer: What are you looking for specifically? Our rankings all cast a wide net to be viable for all league types. You can also put your settings into the Auction Calculator to get custom rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/auction-calculator

Joe14: Drop Luke Jackson for Brieske for Saves ? 12T Mixed Roto

Paul Sporer: You can, but they’re probably pretty similar. Foley’s demotion doesn’t clear the path for Brieske to be the A-guy. Hinch is still gonna run matchups consistently, though Brieske might just get the larger share.

Hype Machine: Which super-hyped young arm do you like best: Jobe, Rocker, Leiter?

Paul Sporer: OK, maybe I am just a homer bc I’m also picking the Tiger here! Jobe might not have the strikeouts of Rocker, but he’s a more complete pitcher right now and I’m really excited to see what he can do in the bigs this year. Again, both Rangers have legit upside of their own, I just see Jobe’s being higher right now

Dude: What exactly is the plan for Maikel Garcia in KC? 3B/2B/CF…starting to sound like he’s a super utility guy now? Possible mascot situation?

Paul Sporer: I’m a sucker for super-utils, so I’d have no problem w/them running Garcia that way. Let’s get him OF elig. and then we’re running 3 positions plus both CI & MI. I still see a ton of upside in his AVG, too. So a .280 AVG/40+ SBs this year wouldn’t shock me

Idiotic Failson: I have an irrational fantasy crush on Chandler Simpson. Does he make it to the show this year?

Paul Sporer: He’s a VERY fun player type so I totally get the crush. Barring just a collapse of his hitting at Triple-A, he will certainly debut this year. The key will be if can consistently get on base without any real pop. He’s been able to take walks in the minors and if he can keep that up in the majors, the SBs will be floooowing!!

Bud: Hey Paul, is Josh Lowe going to be close to a full-time player this year? Thank you!

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t think there is an obvious platoon for him. I think Aranda is the first lefty out vL and Mead will likely get those PAs, leaving Caballero as the only other righty and I’m not sure getting him in for Lowe or Lowe (Josh or Brandon) improves the team in any way v. just letting them face a lefty

Ryan Johnson: Do you ever get the feeling that the Angels FO doesn’t understand the concept of sample sizes?

Paul Sporer: I’m nearly certain of it, lol

Jim Leyland Palmer: Does Verlander have any juice for you in a shallower format like 10 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Probablyyyy just a team streamer right now, which is like an upgraded streamer but I don’t cut ’em when I’m not using ’em like a standard streamer. If he gets going and looks like JV of 2023, he’s viable in all formats at a consistent starter

Maddie: Henry Davis a good fit for Boston if they try to get him a change of scenery? Didn’t keep Jansen and Wong is not elite.

Paul Sporer: Classic change of scenery might be exactly what he needs at this point and I’d never turn down a righty going to Boston where he can just mash 2Bs off the Monster. I still keep a tinge of hope alive for Davis, but it’s waning

Philosophy: What are the pro’s and con’s of a scrubs-and-stars draft vs a balanced draft of less typoes?

Paul Sporer: Downside of stars/scrubs is if your scrubs are too scrubby, the stars can’t outweigh them. Also, if a star or two falls short of their high end, then you’re having trouble keeping up unless a scrub or two counters them with a surprise breakout.

Guest: Brett Baty or Ben Rice to have a bigger long term impact in 2025 ?

Paul Sporer: Ooohh really challenging me here. Big fan of both. Watching Baty in high school so he’s been on my radar forever and Rice looks dialed in right now w/a shot to just mash taters in Yankee Stadium. I do think Rice’s bat has the higher fantasy impact right now so I lean toward him. If I can waffle a bit, I will be clear that I love both. But the definitive pick is Rice

Grrr: Who the heck is closing for your Tigers with Foley getting demoted? Are you drafting anyone for saves in that pen?

Paul Sporer: I’d draft Brieske but as I mentioned earlier, Foley’s demotion won’t change the mix-and-match nature of Hinch. Kahnle/Holton will likely both get SV opps, too

All The Z’s: Zach Dezenzo breaking camp in HOU was interesting. Is this just Christian Walker insurance (this isn’t that guy’s first oblique injury) or will he play? Seems like an interesting bat.

Paul Sporer: I think it’s Walker insurance and just 1B/3B coverage in general since Cam Smith is going to the OF. It’ll be sporadic PT for Dezenzo as Walker/Paredes/Alvarez have 1B/3B/DH on lock right now

Jud: Paul! My two friends in my home league (12 team/mixed/H2H, perpetual dynasty) just made the following swap:

SP Ryan Pepiot and OF Jordan Walker for 3B Cam Smith and SP Nick Lodolo.

I thought the Walker/Pep side was a clean win at first … but now I think the other side is more fun!

Thoughts??

Paul Sporer: Very fun trade and I can easily make the case for both sides which is always nice bc you don’t have to hear anyone crying veto. I’m still on the Walker train for another year so pairing him w/Pep is really solid. I want to love Lodolo, but find myself being very timid with any pitchers in Cincy, especially when you add in Lodolo’s injury history. Smith is super exciting breaking camp w/the club and carries major upside. Ya, just a totally solid deal on both sides!

PD: Is it rue that you’re going to be the guest on the BaseballHQ Radio podcast on Friday?

Paul Sporer: It is true indeed! Can’t wait to talk with Patrick for the BHQ pod which will go live on Friday!!

Adenolith: Im dreaming on a Carl Crawford stlye season for Victor Scott (as unlikely as it may be). How long would you be holding on to him in a league that rosters 240 total players?

Paul Sporer: I try to see these types of players out for 3-4 weeks depending on the rest of my roster. If you get lucky on health and don’t have to make too many moves bc you’re losing guys, you can lengthen your leash on gambles like Scott. And then of course, it depends on him a bit, too. If he’s hitting like last yr (40 wRC+), then maybe we just move on after 75-80 PA, but if he’s just meh (say like an 80-90 wRC+), then I’m riding it out into May

Guest: Victor Scott II or Jacob Young for cheap steals

Paul Sporer: Scott, higher chance for a more dynamic bat

Morning Dove Lenny: Royce replacement at CI- J Aranda, Torkleson or K Hayes? Thank you Sir.

Paul Sporer: Tork or Aranda and I lean Tork bc he’s a full-timer whereas Aranda is almost assuredly going to be platooned. Jeez I’m picking the Tigers in all the toss-ups, not dodging the homer allegations at allll! lol

Richard: Should I trade Bregman for Burger if he is a better fit on my roster? I could use the extra 1B eligibility.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely no issue w/that given the info laid out here!

Rook’ed: AL OBP league: which A’s MI are you taking, Wilson or Muncy?

Paul Sporer: This is ATH Max Muncy for those unaware. I lean Wilson – a bankable top skill w/the contact plus some MLB time under his belt already

Just Curious: Who do you like to close in CIN?

Paul Sporer: Rob Dibble!!

Paul Sporer: jk jk, it’s a mess, though. If I’m spec’ing, I go for Ashcraft or Rogers. I just don’t trust HR-happy Pagan as a closer in Cincy at all

Dude: Okay let’s test your homerism: Jack Flaherty. Does he have a full year of 2024 Tigers performance in him, or does the LAD stint persist into 2025?

Paul Sporer: I’d love to think he can run his DET sample all year, but it’s unlikely. I’ve got him tabbed for a 3.40ish ERA/sub-1.20 WHIP and >25% K rate

Torchestral maneuvers in the dark: Is Tork going to get the PT? Solid ST. Has he found his stroke? Only 25, granted with 1K mlb PA’s.

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. He won that DH gig and hopefully he can run with it. Still too early to give up on him despite the ups and downs. Both former #1s have a chance to really transform themselves for the Tigers this year

Re: on the Lowe: So are you thinking Brandon Lowe might also be every day? (Palacios has a broken finger, in case that matters)

Paul Sporer: I do think there’s a chance, yes and I’m already super high on him so extra PT, even if it comes w/a lesser AVG vL, only adds to my excitement. I’ll take the supplemental counting categories for a little AVG hit

Max: Hi Paul, I have Kyle Harrison in a keeper league, I held on to him until now. Would you stick with him ? Thinking of dropping him for Jack Leiter ? Would you ?

Paul Sporer: I’m not fully out on him bc he’s still too young to quit, but in your situation, I would swap for Leiter

Rhazen24: Hey Paul, sneak peak on OOTP cards for TWIPT tomorrow?:)

Paul Sporer: There will be a tsunami of cards that will roll into lineups/rotation like a big train running down the tracks or a tough card drivin down the roads. Y’all will be blowning bubbles of excitement as these cards will come just in to max your lineup. The future is now, old man!

Guest: What your thoughts on Oneil Cruz?

Paul Sporer: I generally want a much more pointed question, but I’ll let ya off the hook early season here. Usually I ignore “what are your thoughts” questions bc they’re too vague. But I can entertain this one with Cruz. He still has crazy upside and I’m eager to see the full-season move to the OF. He went 20/20 last yr barely breaking a sweat. There’s definitely 30/30 potential here and I totally understand why he remains such an expensive fantasy asset

Guest: Buxton kind of quietly looking dominant again at the plate.  He’s even stolen a few bases!  Is he an early season WW gem now that everyone seems to have given up on him

Paul Sporer: Damn is he on y’all’s waiver wire?! I’d definitely scoop him if so. I’m a deep league kinda guy with most of mine being 15 teams (btw, deeper leagues aren’t better than shallower ones… so I’m not saying that, each format presents its own challenges) so he’s getting drafted, albeit cheaper than ever before and I’ve taken the shot in one league just in case he can spike some health. I have my last Main Event tonight (streaming on twitch at 7pm CT, btw — twitch.tv/sporer) and would definitely consider him in the right build

Bubba Gump: When do you think Bubba Chandler will be called up given Jones injury/Skenes fast track last year? Think he will throw a pitch for the Pirates this year before Jones?

Paul Sporer: Yes I do think he debuts in 25 before Jones unfortunately. He’s probably on the Skenes timeline so early May

Tom: Underrated late round 2B?

Paul Sporer: Need league info on questions like this going forward, but I’ll give a few to acct for different league types — Gavin Lux, David Hamilton, Colt Keith, Michael Massey, and keep tabs on Spencer Horwitz w/his recovery. I’m still a big fan but he is working back from wrist surgery so he could take some time to get going

Guest: H2H pts 12tm..room to add one.. J Hicks or Wesneski ?

Paul Sporer: Wesneski by a mile. I just don’t buy Hicks as a starter

C Success: Austin Wells or Logan O’Hoppe in a 12T H2H 5×5?

Paul Sporer: O’Hoppe, but they are ranked back-to-back for me so it’s a true coin toss

Insert Witty Name Here: Someone asked Justin this Monday, which are the best stream able teams? SF @ home, Rox away games…who else?

Paul Sporer: MIA, CWS, LAA, PIT, STL. And I’m not running away from CLE/ATH starts. Both lineups have star level compelling pieces, but as a whole, they can be beaten

mario: the the Athletics and Rays MiLB parks going to be a bloodbath for pitchers?

Paul Sporer: Could be pretty tough. I still think the Rays have enough talent to overcome so I’ve been buying some of the discounts on ’em but I do understand the concerns in Steinbrenner Field

David Stearns: Should I really be still into Megill in the hopes that his sinker is a game changer?

Paul Sporer: Yeah Tylor Megill is another guy I’ve stayed bought in on. Has an opportunity this year so I’m running back one more time!!!

Marlins position player: Seen questions about verlander… Can scherzer still be viable?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely, I pair ’em together. When one goes, that’s my signal for the other. Both can still be very useful when healthy. It’s just that health piece that will likely be tough to consistently bet on

Trent: I can land Freddie for my Xavier Edwards + two of my mos

Paul Sporer: Unless you desperately need the SBs, I’d take the shot. Classic buy low on Freeman and worth exploring

glasslater: Any fantasy interest to Davis Martin or Sean Newcomb?  Wonder if Newcomb could finally turn a corner via the sox pitching lab

Paul Sporer: Newk way more than Martin, but still tempered to deeper leagues

Fried Rice: Any chance ben rice gets catcher eligibility?

Paul Sporer: Smallll chance. JC Escarra won the backup role and he’s a legit backstop

Utility: Would you clog up utility with Manzardo or Joc in an AL OBP daily league, or not worth the roster issues?

Paul Sporer: No I’m open to either. Big fan of both. Been taking Manzo in many lgs this year

tumtum: Judge feels like a lot of helium. Is it crazy to worry it’s not the same this season?

Paul Sporer: It’s not crazyyyy, but the only real concern I have is health. And even that isn’t some grave concern as he’s logged 600+ PA in 3 of the last 4 seasons

tumtum: Mike Clevinger a legit option of CWS to close?

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately, yes

Jack Handy: Deep Thoughts on SP.  Carrasco or Warren for NYY? Jose Soriano over both?

Paul Sporer: Warren over Cookie and Sori over both. I wantttt Carrasco to be successful bc he’s a great story to root for, but I’m just not confident that will be the case

Worse than Schlittler: I know it’s not relevant to like opening day, but isn’t it kinda weird that Adalberto Mondesi basically soft retired an there hasn’t been a single news item about him in like 2 years?

Paul Sporer: Yeah it is crazy how he basically just disappeared

Rickey: How would you rank Heliot Ramos, Bleday and Soderstrim?

Paul Sporer: In that order… fan of all 3, though, so very little split b/w ’em

Nostradamus: Bold Prediction: Both Dairon Blanco or Jose Caballero are in top 10 SB in 2025 as part-time players.   Buying it?

Paul Sporer: I buy it as a viable Bold Prediction meaning it has real boldness to it while also have a path to legitimacy.

Mr. Burrito: Victor Robles. Mirage or legit?

Paul Sporer: Miragit? lol… I looove Robles so I’m rooting hard for him, but I’m a bit suspect that he can tame T-Mobile all year. Not too expensive to draft and enjoy the SBs but I’m keeping expectations tempered

JDW: Hang onto R. Weathers or drop for Nick Martinez in a 12tm 5×5 standard ?

Paul Sporer: I’m cutting. Was on Weathers coming into the season, but not holding him through this injury when better options exist on the wire

Rob: Wrapping up a slow draft (just in time!) … last pick, Verlander or Tylor Megill

Paul Sporer: Hmmm, they open at CIN and at HOU, respectively, then JV gets SEA/CIN at home (assuming he’s the #2 guy) while Megill gets TOR/MIA at home… I lean JV ever so slightly here

Paul Sporer: Wish I could run another hour as y’all loaded the queue, but I gotta finish preparing for my Main Event draft tonight and put the finishing touches on my Bold Predictions. You can come watch my draft on Twitch starting at 7pm CT and I do answer questions there as much as I can — https://twitch.tv/sporer — see y’all next week and enjoy opening weekend!!!