Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 1st, 2023

Paul Sporer: Chat will start soon, finishing up a pod with Eric Longenhagen, feel free to keep posting your questions

Paul Sporer: Thank you for the patience, y’all. These minor league pods with Eric are gonna be bangers (1 NL, 1 AL — the first releasing later today). I’ll be answering Qs by 3pm CT!

Paul Sporer: I appreciate the patience so much, y’all, let’s get started!

RTJ: Ugh, what do we do with Glasnow on our rankings?

Paul Sporer: I’m doing a hard 180 and just not drafting him

Paul Sporer: I was willing to take the shot on the amazing talent and hoping to spike some health, but he’s already missing guaranteed time so I’m just out

Rob: Re: Glasgow – I saw someone post that Bartolo Colon has more starts than him since 2017 or something, lol

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL, omg

Brian: Should I keep Torkelson at $10.Or is he a sunk cost at this point and I should let him go?  AL Only League. $260 budget. 4×4 (BA, HR, RBI, SB).

Paul Sporer: AL Only, I’m sticking with him for at least this year.

Erik: You’re on the clock at pick 139. The top guy on your board has an ADP of 170, and you’ll be picking again at 162. Are you picking your top guy, or are you picking your second choice (let’s say his ADP is right at 139) and hoping your top option is still there next round?

Paul Sporer: I’m probably taking my top guy. I’d maybe look at the Min Picks to see how early my top guy has gone

CRAIG: Are you adjusting rankings for Brendan Rodgers? Or would that be an overreaction at this point in the year/timeline?

Paul Sporer: What happened with him?

Damian: Do you think tiedemann takes over for kikuchi pretty quick? Seems the best solution

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised. Unless he just goes WILDDD in the minors, I don’t see more than a late-season RP role in the majors

Rob: Here it is, lol:

 

Danny Vietti

@DannyVietti

 

Since Tyler Glasnow’s debut season (2016)

Bartolo Colon: 85 games started
-has not pitched since 2018

Tyler Glasnow: 67 games started

28 Feb 2023

Paul Sporer: lol that’s insane

Craig: Does Brendan Rodgers injury impact where you rank him for the upcoming season?

Paul Sporer: Oh he got injured, yeah I missed that, sorry. I’m not tanking him, but this injury would cause him to lose out on a tiebreaker situation in draft rn

Cory: How are you feeling on a Jared Walsh bounce back?

Paul Sporer: I’m a little tepid. He’s one where I’m rooting for him, but not stocking my teams up with him. That said, his price is totally fair to take the gamble

Nick: In a 12 team points league which side do you prefer, round listed is keeper costs for this year. Rodon 22nd and W. Franco 18th or Tatis 13th and Ray 20th

Paul Sporer: Rodon/Wander for sure

Craig: Blake Snell in second half of season had 13 GS and gave up only 19 ER in 78 IP for 2.19 ERA. K/9 got up to 12. Ended the season with 2 ER over last 4 GS across 25 IP… against ARI, STL, LAD, CHW. Could Snell put it all together this year? Get back to 2018 form, or close to it?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. The talent is there. Efficiency is always the key, but he has wonderful swing and miss stuff and can be a stud

Rob: 1) where are your latest SP rankings and 2) what are you doing with Glasnow and Musgrove? I was initially planning to keep 1 of them, now I’m not so sure. Alt options are Cortes and Severino or hitters Rhys or Nimmo

Paul Sporer: Latest rankings are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert Update coming v soon with changes based on Spring injuries. I’ll still have my mega write up for SPs coming this month, too!

Matt: What’s your stance on holding onto players who will be out for an entire season in keeper leagues? I’m thinking particularly of Walker Buehler, but a broader view is helpful, too.

Paul Sporer: I’m not averse to the late Hail Mary for them in leagues where it’s a free IL stash, but I’m usually not focused on getting those dudes.

Cliff: Whose value increases the most with the Lux injury?

Paul Sporer: Man, his injury is SUCH a bummer. Right now, it’d have to be Miguel Rojas, but I wonder if they go out of the org. for someone as they seemingly viewed Rojas more as a backup, utility type than an everyday guy

Datt Mamon: I have Baty, but with the potential he may not get regular PT, my draft options are the likes of Paredes, Suarez, Y. Diaz (probably my lean as of today), McMahon, J. Turner, Moncada, Donaldson. Thoughts? Is Spencer Steer fantasy relevant this season?

Paul Sporer: Decent group that all kinda live in the same tier. I love Baty and believe he can unseat Escobar, but totally understand getting a 2nd 3B just in case. I’d probably lean for everyday stability since you already have a volatile PT asset in Baty which leads me to McMahon, Suarez, and Yandy

Mark: Hey Paul, Corbin Carroll! Had to say it

Paul Sporer: He is SO good!

Timmy: Could Michael Busch benefit from the Lux injury?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily bc he can’t play SS and I don’t see anyone moving there to open the spot for Busch. Busch was already challenged at 2B so he’ll face an even tougher battle with the shift changes and of course 1B & DH are locked up. If an injury strikes that land Busch in some consistent PT, I’d pounce

JWR: Percentage chance that the Phils let Painter paint and that he has a Dwight Goodenesque season as a 19 year old phenom?

Paul Sporer: It’s probably like 10%, but man he’s got the tools to be special quickly. I really like Painter and understand the hype for sure

JWR: You haven’t updated your Starting Pitching rankings in over 4 months.  Are you turning over the 2023 SP rankings to Nicholas Gaut?

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna have my major write up coming. Nick breaks is up, mine will be all at once

Jake: Jo Adell was a 60 FV with 70-70 game and raw power and a unanimous top 10 prospect.  Three part question if you don’t mind… (1) What do you think went wrong there?  (2) Do you buy the offseason swing changes (quieter load)? (3) And do his struggles over ~500 at bats tell you he will never live up to his prospect pedigree of a Justin Upton-type comp?

Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Eric and I discussed him at length on a team-by-team prospect pod we did. The raw talent has always been there, but it took until the high minors for the holes in his swing to be fully exposed and he simply hasn’t closed them up and I don’t really have a ton of hope that he will. He’s someone I root for and want to be good, but it’s rare for someone to whiff this much and then really figure it out. I’ve definitely lowered my ceiling on him. Kelenic is another one and I know he has a million spring homers, but Adell has had several great springs, too

John: 12 tm, keep 6 forever league. No cost, draft just starts in round 7. Keeping Acuna, Freeman, Betts, Verlander, Degrom. Final keeper – T. Hernandez, Xander, J. Walker or Darvish? Love Walker as high upside, but like the hitting or pitching stability the others offer.

Paul Sporer: I like Walker quite a bit, but with just 7 straight up keepers, I don’t think he makes it. It’s Bogaerts or Darvish for me. It’s pretty close to a toss up, with a slight Bogy lean

Go Cubs: How far are you dropping Seiya with his oblique injury?

Paul Sporer: I don’t want to overreact, but there will be a move off this injury. He’s someone I have loved thus far, though, so I will tamp it down some

John: Been getting offers for Giolito in dynasty, what is your take on him in that format?

Paul Sporer: I like a buyback on him. Last year was tough but I don’t see it as the beginning of the end or anything and think he can work through the issues

NoLux: With Lux out of SS, is Dodgers infield defense better now? or is it the same and outfield defense got worse with Taylor moving to SS?

Paul Sporer: Oh yeah I was forgetting about Taylor, so back to the Q about Michael Busch, it could actually open an avenue if Vargas goes to corner OF to with Taylor moving in and then opening 2B for Busch. We’ll have to see what they do, but if Busch gets PT, I’m in!

Chris: What do you expect out of Luis Campusano this year?  Reports seem positive.

Paul Sporer: I can definitely see 2023 being his time. Nola isn’t holding him off if he’s ready to go and there is still a ton of upside. He’s a complete afterthought in the fantasy market right now so I have no issues taking him as a C2

Brian: If Mackenzie Gore’s future was a train, what car are you on?

Paul Sporer: If it’s a 10-car train, I’m in the middle, 5th or 6th. Still have some love, but not banging the drum too hard on a breakout. Opportunity is there, though, and there’s real talent in his left arm

Vic: Really struggling between Tucker or Soto as #1 pick in a 5 x 5. If SBs are the primary target, Soto wins easily, correct?

Paul Sporer: Wait why’s that? Tucker stole 25 last year, double anything Soto has done in a season

JWR: website says you will be chatting at 5:00 pm.  Left hand, meet right hand.

Paul Sporer: Sometimes it messes up the automated timer. It’s almost assuredly my fault, but I’ll mention it to Sean, sorry about that

Steve: 1 AB, 1 HR from Gabriel Moreno.  Toronto already calling to get him back?

Paul Sporer: They knew what they gave, but Varsho fit their team a lot better if only by virtue of being a lefty. Moreno has major upside, though. I’m often tepid on prospect catchers for fantasy, but Moreno can really hit so I can see myself snaggin him as a C2

Scrapper: Fictional trade:  Oswald Peraza (Yankees) for Bobby Miller (Dodgers).  Who says no?

Paul Sporer: Probably the Yankees right now. Peraza is a markedly better glove than Volpe and he’s the starter right now. And while they did lose Montas, their rotation is in a solid spot

Cincy: Jose Barrero worth a flier?  Seems like he’ll get an opportunity.  Maybe possibly?

Paul Sporer: I was a big Barrero proponent the last 2 yrs, but that swing and miss is just eating him alive. He can certainly handle short, but I’m not sure he can beat out Kevin Newman at this point

Ottoneu roto 5×5: Hey Paul! Are you excited about your first ottoneu team and are y’all publishing your roster or documenting your season?

Paul Sporer: I’m very excited (though we’ve already taken a hit with Suzuki). It’s not my first, but it’s my first a long while. We will regularly discuss it on the pod and definitely plan to have Chad Young – the commish of the league – on the show at some point!

Les: Do you see Ketel Marte ever returning close to 2019 form or was that a product of the juiced ball?

Paul Sporer: Definitely a product of the rabbit ball with that power. Just not as healthy as he was then, either

Scrapper: Over/Under for Dustin May’s innings pitched in 2023?

Paul Sporer: I’d set it at 120

Anonymous: What’s keeping Tyler O’Neill’s draft price low?

Paul Sporer: He’s only done it once and injury history. And I’d argue it’s not really low inside the Top 100 (low meaning a higher draft pick number, of course)

Rain: Drafting 7th in a DC sucks

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think sometimes we focus too much on the first round pick and not what a particular spot offers you elsewhere in the draft

Magglio: Alexis Diaz safe as closer in cincy or is there too much walk in his game?

Paul Sporer: Safe-ish… closers are always suspect outside of the tip top

David: Who ends up with the most saves in Minnesota?

Paul Sporer: If Lopez’s 1H of last year wasn’t a fluke, I think it’s him with Duran best suited for the stopper role  at the hottest pre-9th moments along with some saves

Harry: Is a .179 ISO good against same-handed pitching? Cus that is what Carroll had to those who say he can’t his lefties.

Paul Sporer: It’s pretty good, but I don’t think it eliminates LvL risk at the big league level for Carroll. He’s a top 70 pick so there’s tons of love for him

Boo Radley: Somebody skunked me on Pasquantino. I ended up with Nathaniel Lowe. Its a dynasty league. How disappointed should I be?

Paul Sporer: I’d barely flinch on that. Looove both!

Vic: meant to say ‘aren’t’ Tucker/Soto

Paul Sporer: Ohhhh that makes more sense!

Paul Sporer: I’m OK leaning Soto in that case, yes. I’m a huge Tucker guy, though, but yeah lack of SBs consideration pushes Soto just above him

coocco: how is d jansen a threat to lose PT when his barrelling bat and low ks makes him the best c defensively AND offensively?

Paul Sporer: Well I mean just the presence of Kirk, right? If Kirk eats up some DH pt, there will be more time for DanJan

Banksy: Are you buying-in on the alleged good pitching coming from the Cubs?

Paul Sporer: Yes, it’s deep and solid. I like Wesneski and Steele. Stro and Taillon are solid. Smyly, Sampson, Thompson, Assad, Killian, and Brown give ’em depth. And that’s all without even accounting for Hendricks will be back when healthy

thad: raleigh isnt zunino 2.0 in that hes under 30% k% and improving xwoba over time. can he be top 5

Paul Sporer: Zunino didn’t have a 30%+ K rate right away, either. That said, talking with Eric on the aforementioned AL team breakdown pod got me off the Raleigh as Zunino comp, at least as a 1:1. I still have some concerns about his whiffing, but the switch hitting should mitigate the bottom out potential of his AVG

David: Over/Under on DeGrom’s innings pitched in 2023?

Paul Sporer: Set it at 110 and go from there

Magglio: Any chance Ian Anderson rediscovers his magic from a few years back or is he destined to be a Toby at best?

Paul Sporer: He could yeah, but it’s worth noting that the ERA indicators didn’t love his breakout 2021 (4.38 SIERA, 4.12 FIP), 3.58 ERA) so there was always volatility with him. That said, I wouldn’t rule out some improvement where he can take more advantage of his 12% SwStr

David: Kelenic hit his 3rd ST HR today.  Are we ready to buy in?

Paul Sporer: Not off of 3 Spring Training HRs, no

Trader Bob: Are you really so much higher on Nootbar than on say De La Cruz? Finding his profile hard to figure w/ his reverse splits and bad September … and there’s so much competition in Saint Louis …

Paul Sporer: StL loves him so I’m not worried about the competition, nor am I concerned about September as it seems entirely BABIP driven (.194). His plate approach is quite a bit better than DLC’s, too. That said, I’m not hating on DLC, he’s a good callout as an upside bat worth taking a look at in deeper leagues for sure

Points league: In a shallow league (10 teams) how much more willing are you to take a chance on upside? I know that’s not a quantifiable ask but is that one of your main concerns at the draft?

Paul Sporer: It can be a tiebreaker, but I’m not just taking every risky guy just bc the waiver wire has more fruit on it. That still requires work to replace those dudes if they flop. So sometimes that whole thing is overstated where you just take dart throws in shallow formats bc of the waiver wire.

Guest: Who do you keep, all things equal…Taylor Ward ($9) or Jeffrey Springs ($() – AL only.

Paul Sporer: Ward

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, sorry again for the late start, but I promise it’ll be worth it when these Longenhagen pods drop (1 NL, 1 AL) and we still got almost 2 hrs of chatting in! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!