Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 19th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Welcome to the chat!! Thanks for coming out!

Guest: Hi Paul. Pick one or two to keep in a 12 team roto league. No CI or MI and 3 OF: sale 5th, Naylor 9th or Flaherty 16th. If I keep one I get a first round pick. Other keepers are: Betts, Soto, j. Ramirez, J. Rodriguez and Crochet. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Let’s pair the guys traded for each other and lock in Sale for the 5th rounder!

Chris: Grant Holmes worth it around pick 240?

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s in line with his Main Event ADP. I’m a big Grant Holmes fan, I’ll pay that price

Matt: Need and CI and OF to cover injuries for the first few weeks. Do you go high floor or high ceiling?  Going with A CES/Jordan Walker, or a safer Nate Lowe/Larnach or Abreu?

Paul Sporer: While I do like CES and I’m holding out hope for Jordan Walker at least one more, I’m huge on Nate Lowe this year so I’m going w/him and Larnach! I think Lowe can have a great season in Washington and be this year’s Jesse Winker in terms of random guy who drops a double-digit SB total outta nowhere

Guest: am i in danger if shaw is my only real 3b

Paul Sporer: A bit, yeah. He is still a rookie. If the league is shallower, you’ll be able to find something on the wire if things go south, but I’d try to get at least someone else on the roster who can play 3B

TLS: After Luis Garcia’s (WAS) mini breakout last season, what do you think he’ll do in 2025?  Is there even more potential there?

Paul Sporer: Maybe more with the AVG is a perfect season where the BABIP spikes, but I’m not projecting any substantial growth in the HR/SB, I think that 20/20 range makes a lot of sense for him

Matt: Favorite SP flyer to keep on bench to start the year. Weathers, Birdsong, Leiter?

Paul Sporer: On pure talent, I’m a Weathers guy, though I have been impressed w/what Birdsong is doing this spring. I’d check the schedules and try to map out who they might face and see if that helps your decision bc it’s a compelling trio of arms for sure

Arms and Troubles: Is Cantillo gonna take that job from Luis L. Ortiz?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t seen anything to that end, though I am a huge Cantillo fan so I’d love to see him get the shot. Both guys are walking the yard during the spring including Ortiz’s 6 in a recent outing. I think things are still leaning Ortiz’s way right now

Hold the Mayo: Is mayo worth holding in a short bench al only keeper league?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. Dreadful spring, no room, and short bench suggests it could hurt to keep a stash like that

ACC: Who do you like in Sv+Hlds leagues??

Paul Sporer: Everyone! I punt until late in the draft and then play the wire. Not a spot where I invest too many resources unlike SVs-only leagues where I pay up

Peter: Thoughts on Jordan Lawlar this year? Will he get a shot?

Paul Sporer: Maybe if he just forces his way up by slamming it at Triple-A, but otherwise I really think they’re in a good position to let him get some games under his belt since he’s missed so much time to injury. I know he’s had a good ST but there’s no room in the starting lineup right now and they aren’t gonna bring him as a bench player so I’m not drafting him in redraft leagues

Rocking tonight: With Rocker and Leiter both making the rotation for now, who do you prefer? Rocker has the higher prospect pedigree, but Leiter has looked better this spring (and may have added a sinker to help solve some of his issues).

Paul Sporer: It’s a toss-up for me, but I’m leaning toward Rocker. I know his spring hasn’t been terribly impressive, but that slider is just sooo damn good that it covers a lot and I think once we fire up real games, he’ll be back on track. We don’t always have details on what young arms are working on in spring, either, so sometimes the stats are truly meaningless to the team bc of what they’re working on. Not saying that is definitively the case for Rocker, but I do wonder since his arsenal definitely needs some work outside of the slider

Peter: Hold Cam Smith in 12 team rotor redraft leagues if he gets sent down?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d at least wait it out. I know Jeff planted his flag on Zach Dezenzo in his Bold Predictions today, which I do get since Dezenzo is already on the 40-man, but I’d at least ride it out for Cam — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/jeff-zimmermans-2025-bold-predictions/

Peter: Worried about Masyn Winn ST stats? Looks pretty bad so far (according to stats)

Paul Sporer: Nah, not too worried. It’s been brutal with some ugly plate skills underneath the struggles, too, but a .133 BABIP is also hampering him. I haven’t seen anything to suggest his job is in danger as that glove keeps him locked in at SS

Peter: Worth picking up Alex Vesia in 12 team roto redraft leagues after today’s saves? I need names.

Paul Sporer: No, I would not.

Sherfdog Millionaire: Pick two from Lawrence Butler, Ozuna, Teoscar, 12 team roto,

Paul Sporer: My fellow Butler-loving brethren are gonna kill me, but I’m going Teo/Ozuna. I do love the LawDog but Teo and Ozuna are just a lot more bankable

Festa: AL Only keeper league with 3-man bench: worth holding Zebby or Festa, or let them both wait for call-ups (at which point they can’t be kept)?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably pick my fave from the duo if I’d keep either. Too short a bench to lock up 2 spots (so annoying that neither of them are in the MIN rotation). I lean Zebby, but that’s pro-Zebby, notttt anti-Festa

Insert Witty Name Here: Any worries about CJ Abrams after his suspension last year?

Paul Sporer: Are you talking about the gambling demotion? Nah, things happen. Ya can get a pass on first infraction of something like that. He seemed to respond well enough to it and realize his error. I’m still good w/him

Fant’sy Feast: Hey Paul, thanks for doing these. Already in a roster crunch: would you keep Bleday for the high floor or the upside of VScottII? Similarly, which of these RP would you cut loose first: Estrada, CSmith, Kerkering? (5×5 roto w/ weekly lineups)

Paul Sporer: I’d go with Bleday. I know Scott is blasting off in Spring, but it’s against weak competition and I’m just not sure he can hit enough to flex that speed. As for the RPs, I think it’s Cade. He can offer ratios & Ks, but he’s a looong way from SVs as Clase will get a huge leash even if there are some struggles

Jared: Pick 10 in the main event who are you targeting?

Paul Sporer: I’d look for Gunnar/Tucker to fall or go for one of Chourio/Tatis/J-Rod/Lindor. SP on the table if that’s a way you like to go as both Skubal & Skenes could be available to you, but I’m almost always going hitter there. 10 would be a new high for Lindor but it’s your only shot at him since he almost certainly won’t make it to you in the 2nd

E: Jonathan India. Entering his prime, batting lead-off for new team and in front of one of MLB’s best players. Decent historical well-rounded numbers. Injury history, yes, but great spring showing. I can’t help but feel like his ADP is a steal right now. Am I missing something?

Paul Sporer: Not to me, you’re not. I’ve been snaking him all winter/spring and will continue to target him down the stretch here in draft season even with a little price boost (he’s about 10 picks higher in the Main Event than he was in February DCs). I know he’s loving the wonderful Cincy park, but KC is a fine place to hit w/only HRs being stifled and I love a healthy India ahead of Witt-Vinnie P-Sal

Insert Witty Name Here: Jackson Churio…did he show enough in his rookie year that he can already be an established star in year 2?

Paul Sporer: I’m willing to take the shot. There is some risk and going back to Jared’s question about the #10 Main Pick, I wouldn’t begrudge anyone passing Chourio bc of track record to go w/any of the rest of that group. His skills are electric for sure, but he’d hardly be the first eventual superstar to dip in year 2

Guest: Soderstrom or C Smith for CI if you assume H2H 5×5?

Paul Sporer: Soderstrom, roster spot is locked!

dart: Am I supposed to be managing the MLBDL and AFL in OOTP26? I don’t understand how to use them

Paul Sporer: No you don’t have to unless you want to. OOTP is one of those games where you can do as much or as little as you want

Kate: Are Rocker and Will Warren in their respective rotations to start the year?

Paul Sporer: Yes for both. Injuries have really cleared the path for both of ’em. I lean toward Warren between the two, but they should both have spots outta camp

Joe: Colton cowser able to cut down on strikeouts and out hit his projections?

Paul Sporer: He coooould but we haven’t really seen anything to suggest he has taken steps there in spring. His K% is down to 23%, but that’s small sample noise as his swinging strike rate is still 12%, in line w/last yr’s 13%. If he can live closer to 25-26% K instead of 30%+, he could hit .250+ and outearn his projections

Birdsong: Birdsong has 0 BB in 12 IP this spring, do you think it’s legit? The guy had a 5.38 BB/9 last year, he’s probably had to make some improvements to be this good, right, even accounting for spring training?

Paul Sporer: There’s enough to it that I’m keeping tabs on him and moving him up the board a bit. Solid pitching dev org, strong vets around to give young arms pointers, and a great park to pitch in. Worth noting his competition has been super low in spring, but I’m still giving him credit bc it’s a clear improvement over his career to this point. Look for a jump in the next SP rankings update (out no later than tomorrow morning)

Kate: Can Reid Detmers figure it out with the Angels or does he need a trade?

Paul Sporer: I think he can. I don’t think LAA is inherently holding him back, though I will say if he went somewhere like Houston, I’d be doing backflips. Well, I’d try a backflip, miss it, break my neck and die, but it’d be in celebration of Detmers!!!!

Buff: NL only keeper, pick two: Matz, McGreevy, Roupp, Ben Brown.

Paul Sporer: McGreevy/Roupp

Paul Sporer: Cubs fans, can Brown matriculate back into the rotation or is just king stopper on the bridge to Pressly/Hodge in the late innings?

Bruce: How likely is it Rice gets C eligibility at some point this season?

Paul Sporer: I’d say like a 35-40% chance if you just need 5 gms? We have J.C. Escarra penciled in as the backup right now and I agree w/that, but occasional C games is a way to get Rice’s in the lineup. Only tough part is he and Wells are both lefties.

Rich: Do you trust Kerry Carpenter to stay upright throughout the season?

Paul Sporer: Trust? Who can say for sure. Desperately he can and have created a candlelight shrine in his honor to help will it into existence? Yes, very much so. (I’ve got him on several teams and it’s not just Tigers homerism)

JSWEETS: Does Robert Garcia end up with the closer role in Tex?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s got a real shot to take it, yeah. Jeff Zimmerman thinks so, too! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/jeff-zimmermans-2025-bold-predictions/

Jesse: How much do you let your OOTP experience bleed into your fantasy love for players? I’ve played for years, and it influences my knowledge of player growth for sure.

Paul Sporer: Million percent!! Now I don’t go drafting players in fantasy bc they popped off in my OOTP sim, but it does create fandoms for me when they go off in a sim. OOTP is entirely the reason for my undying Brayan Rocchio love to name one

I Used to be Mel Clark: Where is the best site to find this year’s spring training fastball velocities and compare them to last years averages?

Paul Sporer: Savant! https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

Lord Thunder: How risky would a flyer on Jordan Romano be?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size. He’s a pretty firm closer 2 in the 15-teamers I’m playing

Anthony C: Where would be comfortable taking Royce Lewis in a 12 team with his newest injury?

Paul Sporer: Only if there are IL slots. In the NFBC landscape, I’m passing on my guy

Rp: Torkelson spring have you hopeful? Can we just get another 2023 from him?

Paul Sporer: It does, yes, within reason at least. I was never giving up on him even if Spring didn’t go super well but the fact that he’s popping off does make me happy

Anthony C: How high would you be comfortable taking Lindor in a 12 team?

Paul Sporer: As early as a 11ish, depending on settings and who goes ahead. I’m assuming 5×5 w/that answer

Re: Will Warren: I think Cookie Carrasco is gonna get the #5 slot for the Yankees

Paul Sporer: Right, but Warren is the 4, no?

Paul Sporer: Unless Schmidt is ready, right?

Draft Time: Level of concern with Betts?

Paul Sporer: Maybe a handful of picks drop. I wouldn’t be moving him too much, though

Jake: Trade Mark Vientos for Lawrence Butler

Paul Sporer: Getting Butler? Absolutely

Anthony C: Vlad or Lindor in 5×5 head to head 12 team?

Paul Sporer: Lindor for me, but I took the pair on the wheel in a draft earlier this spring so they’re VERY close for me

comish4lif: Do we like Nick Lodolo to finally have a healthy season and put it together for once?  (12 team, NL only, auction)

Paul Sporer: I hoooope, but I haven’t been drafting him. Health and park factors keep me at bay

sumodumo: In a 15-teamer, better to take a “safe” volume play like Renfroe or shoot the moon with Caglione… let’s say with a moderately deep bench

Paul Sporer: Usually better to go safe & boring

Gumby: Where would you rank Soderstrom among catchers? He’s eligible in my league.

Paul Sporer: Off the dome, I’d say 10-12 range

Matt: So torn on this!! Deciding on my last keeper in AL only roto league. George Kirby for $12, Gavin Williams for $8, Rasmussen for $4. Kirby injury is making me question it. Thanks!!

Paul Sporer: Oh maaaannn that’s tough especially bc I also love Gav. That said, I haven’t been terribly concerned about the Kirby injury so I thiiiink I’d stick w/him. One X-factor is how much does your league get scared by injuries? If you don’t think Kirby will go much more at auction, maybe run Gav for the keeper and try to rebuy Kirby?

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, tried to hit a speed round there at the end. Y’all crushed it per usual. Two more big draft weekends!!! I’ll be live on Saturday at https://twitch.tv/sporer with my Main Event draft at 1pm CT. Come through and I’ll try to answer as many fantasy Qs as I can in between picks. SP rankings update either today or early tomorrow, take care y’all!