Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 7th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Helllooooo everyone thanks for coming out!!

Fletch: Sporer – Buy low on Adolis?

Paul Sporer: LOL for sure 🙂

Ryan: Any concerns about the regression seen in Mitch Keller’s recent starts?

Paul Sporer: Not really, no. Yesterday’s was the only one that was bad. The trips to SF & SEA weren’t great w/10 ER in 12 IP, but he also had 16 Ks and 3 BB. He was never going to hold a 2.44 ERA, so this is some natural regression, I’m still fully in on him

Keith: Is it time to give up on Rafael Montero in a holds league?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m fine w/that

Farhandrew Zaidman: There’s no way the Orioles fixed Aaron Hicks just like that, right….?

Paul Sporer: We probablyyyyy need more than 18 PA. If the plate skills hold anywhere near a 1:1 BB/K (currently at 1.5), I could see him being a plus hitter, but I’m far from declaring that

Bullet Joe: any hope for a shane bieber revival?

Paul Sporer: Not unless the Ks rise. He needs to at least be at last year’s 25% mark… 16% just won’t work. I’m still holding, but I’m certainly more nervous than I was to start the season

Dave: Just acquired Alek Manoah on the cheap in a 12-team, keep-5 dynasty league with one minor league roster slot.  How long would you give him to work things out in the minors before using that roster spot for a true “prospect”?

Paul Sporer: I’d at least see it through for a couple months

Scott TINSTAAPP: Fun game, go to your live standings and see if you can find the person who started Roansy! It’s not hard! Do you think he could get sent down? With VV hurt not sure who would take over

Paul Sporer: OK, that was pretty easy… is that you in my league???

Paul Sporer: BTW, 10th isn’t great, but I was in 15th for the first 6 weeks or so, so I’m pretty happy to have grinding up to 10th. It’ll be another while to get to those folks in the 70s, but I gotta keep pushin’!

Dee’s Nutz: Thoughts on AJ Smith-Shawver and what’s realistic for him going forward?

Paul Sporer: It’d be unfair to him to put any sort of Strider comps out there and as Justin pointed out on the pod yesterday, he doesn’t have 2 amazingggg pitches like Strider, but I do think he could be something on the fantasy landscape if they commit to him in the rotation. I’m down for a speculative pickup!

Less-neski: Still holding out hope for a useful H. Wesneski ROS?

Paul Sporer: A little… I tried to pick him up this weekend since he was cut in so many spots, but he’s a matchups play at best right now. Just not missing bats like we saw last yr or in spring. I really liked him coming into the year, but 2+ months in he is far from a must-hold in any format. At his cost, there was always risk he wouldn’t pan out and unfortunately, he’s looking like a flop for the breakout

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: Datt. Mamon!

Guest: Move on from yennier cano in sv/hld?

Paul Sporer: He was always going to regress some. I’m not sure you have to move on in that I don’t think he’s going to fall apart, but I’m all for hot-handing RPs in a SV/HD league so I won’t say he’s must-hold

Farhandrew Zaidman: There’s gotta be like 8 teams on the waiver wire ready to take a shot at fixing Plesac, right?

Paul Sporer: At leeeeaaasssttt. I’m not even a fan of his, but he’s an easy pickup for SEVERAL teams, including my own Tigers. Even if he can eat some innings at a 4.75ish ERA, that’s valuable in the bigs

Paul Sporer: And while his ERA is nowhere near that right now (7.59), his 4.65 SIERA is still in line w/his career levels

seth r: Meneses for Seiya Suzuki, which side do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Suzuki for sure

Mac: Do you see Rodon as a top 25 pitcher once he returns?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d say so. Might need a start or three to ramp up, but he’s an ace and I’ll be viewing him as such upon his return

Swing and a miss: Any signs that Gunnar Henderson will turn his season around and end up going top 50 in 2024 drafts?

Paul Sporer: Signs? No. Is it possible? Sure, but at a very low probability. It would take SUCH a strong run rest of season to that so even w/good signs in his profile, I’d still be skeptical on rallying to Top 50

Bacon, Eggs and: Is Manaea just toast at this point?

Paul Sporer: For fantasy purposes, he isn’t rosterable in any format really.

Jax: EDLC to the moon?

Paul Sporer: Certainly possible which is why he’s a pickup in all formats. Definitely a high risk/high reward situation and I’ve been invoking the name Oneil Cruz to express EDLC’s (Elly De La Cruz for those unaware) volatility. The power/speed is so good for fantasy that you have to take the gamble of his modest plate skills (I’m not sure I buy the BB% jump in AAA this yr yet as he might’ve been pitched around a bunch given how hot he was prior to the call up)

Dave: Kelenic will be a top ____ OF going forward

Paul Sporer: 50

Paul Sporer: Plate skills are now back in line w/2022 and it’s a near-200 pt BABIP jump aiding his breakout. Now, he had a .167 BABIP last yr which is of course insanely low, but he might have to hold a mid-.300s mark (.363 currently) to outrun his K issues. He may still make me wrong by season’s end, but this is why I don’t take Ls in April. After a 982 OPS in April, he’s at 682 in his last 128 PA and that still includes a .358 BABIP

Big boys: Do you think L. Lynn will turn it around? Peripherals seem OK, but yikes this is tough to stomach

Paul Sporer: He’s suffering from OBI (One Bad Inning) Syndrome in a lot of the bad starts so it feels like he’s an adjustment away from bringing that ERA down toward his palatable 4.04 SIERA, but he’s been so HR prone that I can’t guarantee it. He’s got a 2-step next wk, but it kicks off w/a trip to LAD and even as a long-time Lynn believer, I’m not sure I can pull the trigger on it

Dave: Pick an IL stash– Nick Lodolo, Tarik Skubal, Mason Miller

Paul Sporer: Skubal. He’s on rehab working his way back. Lodolo is out another month-plus and Miller has just started his way back from injury (and has basically 0 win potential even when he’s back)

Daro: Pasquantino is killing me. Time to move on? Not much Noda, Pratto, Sheets in FA.

Paul Sporer: I feel like that’s an overstatement to say he’s killing you! Dipped below 800 OPS 3 days ago, I think he will be fine. I’m intrigued by Pratto & Noda, but not w/Vinnie P as a cut. He’s been fine

Bruce & E Street: Time to more on from Bryce Miller and Liberatore ? Mixed 12 T Roto

Paul Sporer: Liberatore sure, no way on Miller. He got diced up in a pair of tough matchups back-to-back, but that feels like an overcorrection and I still see a solid 4.10 SIERA that is worth holding in 12s or deeper for sure

Scott TINSTAAPP: Haha, no thankfully I don’t own Roansy! Tough one, you can understand putting him out there against OAK at home…it’s been rough for him though

Paul Sporer: Yeah I gave him the full reco in my SP chart and stand by the process. It’s OAK for cryin’ out loud, but he got absolutely dumpstered!!

Scott TINSTAAPP: honestly great work, I’ve been grinding all year and will until the last day but it’s been a tough season in the Main after a great one last year!

Paul Sporer: It always sucks so much to start in such a deep hole but we haaaaavvvveeee to remember that the season is VERY long and you should never be giving up too soon! Still not sure I’ll have the offensive horses to make up my deficits, especially since I was too poor for Royce Lewis and thus will be for Elly, too, but hopefully I can spike a $15-20 gem or three (out of $1000 budget)

Rick: I’m staring at Luke Raley and his beautiful statcast page. To what extent should I be a believer in his breakout? I’m mainly concerned about whiffs.

Paul Sporer: You’re right to be concerned about them, but the power-speed goodness is worth holding onto even if the AVG sinks into the lower-.200s from here forward.

David: Can I just say, that Roansy recommend is a killer. Trying to take down an undefeated team and I pick him up last minute.

Paul Sporer: I hear ya, but I mean, who on earth could’ve seen that coming? I figure at worst we’d get something like a 5 IP/4 ER/6 K kinda game. Could’ve never seen such a meltdown

Justin Mason Physique: Should we be staying away from pitchers with this body type moving forward? Manoah & Lynn not doing the big boys proud.

Paul Sporer: Nah, plenty of bigger body types who’ve been super successful, too. There are no hard & fast rules on that kinda stuff. You can find pluses & minuses for each class of player when you start breaking ’em down like that

David: What is up with Liberatore? Does he just need to get a consistent run?

Paul Sporer: We haven’t really seen the gains we saw in Spring & AAA. Velo is up a bit, but nothing else looks like the guy we thought could be a breakout

Insert Witty Name Here: Trout for Alonso in an OBP league, yay or nay?

Paul Sporer: Sure, no issues there on either side

Yo-yo: Hey Paul, love you, love your show.  Curious what your take is long term on Hunter Brown?  I can trade Kershaw for him in a salary cap keeper where he’s much more affordable for the next few years, H2H, pts.  Thank you!

Paul Sporer: Thanks for the kind words!! I’m a HUGE fan of Brown’s and would definitely do the deal bc even if Kershaw is better this yr (which is no guarantee given how well both are throwing), I like Brown more going forward for sure

Louis V: Varland was rated really high on DFS sites yesterday, which encouraged me to start him. Should have kept him at your level. Any idea why DFS didn’t consider TB’s quality?

Paul Sporer: I’m sure they did but he’s been putting up some nice skills this yr and maybe those sites liked him to keep it going even against a tough team and thus he could’ve been kind of a sneaky play. Was he priced highly, too? Or was it write-ups that promoted him? I’m a fan of him and started him in the league I have him, but knew it was a major risk, so kept my recommendation in check in the SP Chart

Keeping the lead: Smarter to trade for HR or SB when you’re in first, projected to tie for first in SBs but be 30 HRs behind first in HR?

Paul Sporer: I’d go for power. It contributes everywhere! A HR hits 4 categories every time you smack one

Kate: Reese Olson’s stuff looked nasty in that first start.  Do you think he can keep the command together enough to be a viable starter in real life and in a 15 teamer?

Paul Sporer: That will definitely be the key. I know you asked if he can, I truly don’t know, but we know the swing and miss elements are there, he just can’t give away a ton of free passes if he wants to have consistent success in the bigs. I think he’s worth the pickup as at least a stash even if you plan to skip the PHI start

Eh?: Can everyone lay off picking on pitchers body weights? As soon as a skinny guy loses it (Flaherty, Syndergaard), it’s just mechanical. As soon as a bigger guy loses it, everyone says he needs to hit the gym. Enough of that

Paul Sporer: Yeah I know it’s meant to be jokey, but I agree that it’s a bit much. And I know Manoah has dealt w/asshole fans seriously trying to call him out for stuff like that prior to this year when he was pitching like an ace so I can only imagine the dumb shit he’s dealing with these days.

Cronenworth: Is playing 1B really that hard? Why has he turned into a 200 hitter overnight?

Paul Sporer: It is hard, but I don’t think that’s the issue. Hits aren’t falling w/a .243 BABIP and I’m not seeing anything that suggests it’s more than mostly bad luck at this point. Everything else is more or less in line w/his previous marks. That said, this 89 wRC+ is within the range of outcomes for his profile so there are no guarantees of a turnaround

Sean: Do you think Jonah Heim can sustain this? Texas offense obviously a great spot to be, is he a top 5 catcher at this point?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I do! I was a big fan in draft season and he’s been wonderful. I really liked Texas coming into the year, too, so I was hoping to get pieces of that lineup wherever I could

Kid: Vlad Jr. – Awesome statcast page, mediocre real life results.  He’s been dreadful at home, too.  What’s going on?

Paul Sporer: This was brought up in my boxscore show on Twitch this morning and I was floored by his insane home/road splits!!! It feels like a fluke to post a .606 OPS in Toronto, so I tend to think he will be just fine as the season wears on. I’m not too worried

Jay: How likely is Roasny to get the Manoah treatment tomrorow?

Paul Sporer: I imagine it’d be a standard AAA send down, not all the way down like Manoah

angles in the of: Safe to drop Moniak in a deep 12 team 5×5 OPS keeper (keep 20 out of 40)? Probably no more trade value than guys on the wire like Edouard Julien or Jose Miranda right

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. He’s a streamer at best

Joe Shlabotnik: Another SP roster question, with thanks–just traded my Steer for his Eovaldi. Had just picked up Pearson in the hopes that he might get sent down to stretch out as a Manoah replacement.  You see that as at all likely? If not, he’s my drop when the trade clears…

Paul Sporer: I don’t think they are looking to convert Pearson back to SP right now so I’d be OK moving on from him

Matthew Liberatore: Is he just another below average waiver wire guy or a relevant arm? No K’s and velocity was down 2 mph last start. I’m sure you’d take Bobby Miller over him at this point?

Paul Sporer: He’s a cut and I’d take Miller over him for sure. As I mentioned earlier, until we see the elements we saw in Spring that made him intriguing again, I’m totally fine leaving him on the wire

Jonny DeLuca: Pretty deep NL only league. Can you see him carving out a decent role with the Dodgers? He has great minor league numbers and his competition is Heyward & Peralta…

Paul Sporer: I have some very nerdy bias toward DeLuca in that he has panned out for me in Out of the Park Baseball more than once so I’m super excited to see how he does in the majors. I’m not going to let a simulator video game dictate my fantasy decisions, but he has real skills and Eric Longenhagen cited him specifically in our preseason podcast covering NL prospects. Tough part about climbing beyond the short side platoon that Heyward is doing pretty well this yr, but in a deep NL, I think he’s still worth going for because an injury could easily thrust him into more PT

kcc26: where does Elly get drafted in a second-chance draft today?

Paul Sporer: Oh wow, probably like 4th-5th round? Not saying that it’s right, but it will likely be very high

Jeroosh: Ezekial Duran is straight mashing. How should I value him in a keeper going forward?

Paul Sporer: Solid bat in a great lineup worth a look if you need a bat, especially now that he’s playing pretty much daily! Power/speed always plays so even if (when) the AVG regresses, there should still be some fantasy heat

Paul Sporer: OK, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!