Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 4th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!!

The Batman: I just want to say that my roster has fully entered the “everyone is getting injured” phase and I am not enjoying it!

Paul Sporer: The worst time of the year that comes for virtually EVERY team at some point. The years you avoid it or catch the very low end often wind up being the ones where you can make a run to the title

Paul Sporer: That said, injuries don’t preclude you from that run so don’t give up! In the grand scheme, it is still relatively early. All leagues are different, but there are PLENTYYYY of teams in the last 3 places of their league that can realistically still win. Won’t be easy but absolutely can be done.

Matt: 12 team dynasty roto (OBP, TB)…is it time to cut ties w/ Adames? You dropping him to call up Shaw?

Paul Sporer: Still feels too early to cut bait. Could see a benching, but I’m reluctant to quit him. Especially with a 90 pt split in AVG/OBP so while his OBP is still weak at .293, once his BABIP starts getting going, he’ll be a solid OBP asset.

TripleShy: I’m caught in a blob of slightly interesting pitchers for my last spot, who do you like ROS for a shallow points league? Pepiot, Weathers, Lodolo, Abbott

Paul Sporer: Pep is still my favorite as he’s tamed the park better than I expected w/a 3.64 ERA/1.26 WHIP. The HR potential still leaves him susceptible there, but I’m trusting him everywhere. The 2 Reds are close as well. I think Weathers is the easiest to eliminate w/virtually 0 W upside and the dodgiest injury record of the group. Are you cutting the rest are keeping some of these in reserves bc the real answer is matchup play with Pep & the Reds

of the Grom: Any concern with deGrom after 2 low-k starts with slightly less velocity/stuff? Should I be dealing him or riding the blip?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m not worried to that end. I just think this is a downshifted deGrom, but as long as he’s healthy and upright, I’m running him everywhere. Can’t hurt to shop him if you think you can help the team since his injury history is checkered, but I’m happy w/the results so far and he’s locked into my rotations

Adley: How many pennies on the dollar should I spend on Adley? AL OBP league. Is Gavin Williams or Pepiot too much to give up? (Adley replaces Quero)

Paul Sporer: I feel like those SPs would be fair. 2 of my faves so I value them pretty highly, but I think either should get Adley pretty fairly if the team is ready to trade Adley and needs pitching

Snid: Is it taking longer for players to return from injury? Darvish, Woodruff, et al.

Paul Sporer: Oftennnnn takes longer than expected timelines. Jason Collette taught me yrs ago to add a few weeks to any timeline when making a fantasy decision. If they make the early deadline, great! free stats… but if they miss it, you made your move planning for the later timeline ANYWAY so you have some cushion. Changed the way I evaluate injuries for sure. That said, I’m not perfect… I bit on George Kirby and didn’t add enough extra on the backend. Still think I have a gem rest of way, though, espec. after yesterday’s solid outing

Prospector: Rasmussen looks great, but the Rays are still treating him with kids gloves.  To whit, 77.9 pitches/game = 81st amongst starters.  Any chance they take off the training wheels?  I’m greedy and want to see him rack up some quality starts!

Paul Sporer: Perhaps they have a 2nd half overdrive planned if they’re contending? At least he’s win qualifying most of the time. Only 1 sub-5 outing. From TBR’s standpoint, they’ve gotten 6 in 3 of the last 4 so they’re getting the best of both worlds with a deepish outing on a tiny count. They seem set on the pitch count more than the batters faced count as evidenced by his TEX start of 5 IP/16 BF on 79 pitches. Still a scoreless dub, though! We’d all love more juice, but let’s appreciate that he’s healthy and dominating right now

Dave: Royce Lewis… woooof. Plugging Max Muncy in for now, but is Lewis a hold for you, or is there something concerning going on under the hood?

Paul Sporer: Given his history, he could always be ailing in some way, but looking at his profile I am a firm hold and would even seek to acquire where I can. Assuming he is indeed healthy, he’s just way better than a .148 BABIP and sometimes it is that simple that a BABIP will regress and “fix” everything. The rest of his profile is in line w/career norms that netted him a 128 wRC+ in 605 PA before this year. Trust the process with Royce. Seek him out!!

2ndChance@2ndBase: 12T 5×5 anything to buy in on Semien?

Paul Sporer: Semien, on the other hand, I’m not quite as gung ho about chasing. Y’all know I like to commit 6-8 wks to my foundational picks before making any major moves. We’re at that point with Semien and paired w/last year’s dip, it’s hard not to see this as the decline phase in effect. Doesn’t mean he’s a 63 wRC+, but now last yr’s 99 is more the upside as opposed to the 121 we saw 2021-23. There can still be some value in a league avg Semien, but it becomes pretty pedestrian in 12s so again, not sure I’m chasing him down.

Alex: How do we feel about Mookie Betts at this stage, is it time to consider cashing in for Dynasty given the statcast decline the past two years?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I do think that’d be prudent in dynasty leagues where you can. The best setup would be trading him to a contender who might be open to sacrificing some future juice to secure his services now. Otherwise, it might be hard to find a buyer.

Insert Witty Name Here: Worried about Kirby or is this just early season adjustments for him?

Paul Sporer: This is just his Spring Training and I was relatively pleased by last night. Ran him this week and standing by him until the ~10-start mark (at least in terms of cutting… start/sit still a bit more open depending on tm & league size)

Gates Brown: 10 team roto.  Cut bait on Bubba to pick up McCullers?

Paul Sporer: Yes, healthy McCullers looking sharp lately. Let’s see where it goes.

Kaline Solution: Paul I have a big surplus of good OF in a start 3 OF 14 team dynasty weekly points format.  My cut line guys are Adolis, Evan Carter and Austin Hays– some teams in our league are really thin in the OF but few owners will trade. Would it be smart to drop any of the 3nabove to add pitching depth? A flyer on Cody Bradford for example? Or a 2nd C like Stephenson to alternate with Wells?

Paul Sporer: I kinda like using the luxury spot to stream catchers a bit in a 1-C setup. Seems like there are options to play around with

Joe14: Addison Barger or Nootbaar ? Deep 12T Roto

Paul Sporer: Barger is hot, but I’m sticking w/Noot. Is there anyone else you could cut for Barg? I like getting him, just not at the expense of Noot

Simpson Sympathy: Sounds like you’re holding Simpson where possible. I’m in an AL Only with 3 bench spots. Do I just ride it out? WW guys are DJL, Osuna and the like…

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d try to make it work for a while espec. in AL only where he can be SO impactful. It’s a week-to-week thing and if injuries start stacking up on you, you’ll have to make a tough decision but I’m holding for now

M: Any reason to stash Sasaki? Enough upside?

Paul Sporer: Maybe in a deeper league as a luxury hold, but I’m looking more at 2026 & beyond. He’s just raw. He’ll be amazing eventually IMO, just not yet

Qane: In a deep league, I’m definitely waiting Adolis out. But what are you thinking in a league with a short bench, and below-average options on the wire (Tauchman? Wallner?). You done? Another week? 2?

Paul Sporer: I’m not the biggest Adolis fan so I need to make sure my confirmation bias isn’t sneaking him to declare him cooked prematurely. I definitely don’t think he is cooked as that 9% HR/FB should push back toward his 17% career mark though he is just LIVING in the air at 56% FB rate which means a lot of pop-ups, too. As such, the low BABIP isn’t guaranteed to regress much, that’s just a trade-off of heavy flyball guys. His running more probably saves him over Tauch and Wallner for me bc he already has 5 SBs after 11 all last yr. So even if he hits .225 the rest of the way, it has a good shot to come w/15 HR & 10 SB

Fant’sy Feast: With Crews and now Bregman on the IL, my stashed pitchers are starting to take up too much space. I love Reese Olson, but the finger isn’t coming along very quickly. Woodruff just got hit in the right arm by a comebacker on top of his shoulder and ankle. And Grayson just started throwing on flat ground. How do you go about making keep/cut decisions on arms like these?

Paul Sporer: I make sure I have the latest news on all the injuries so I have the best handle possible on expected timelines (and it seems like you do) and then I mix that w/the talent to make decisions. It’s probably Woody, Olson, Grayson for me given the crunch your Crews/Breg injuries are bringing to the table

Royce: Since coming off the IL last July, Royce has a 187/253/313 triple slash over 308 PA for a .251 wOBA and 59 wRC+. Counting totals are 7 HR, 27 R, 34 RBI and of course 0 SB.  The 22.3% Ks and 8.2% BB are OK but it comes with an 87.6 mph EV, 17* LA and 36.3%  HH rate for a .289 xwOBA. That’s a full half season of sub-replacement numbers in real life, let alone not being fantasy relevant

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I get that, but the majority of that is last yr when he really didn’t look right off the IL. This year’s batted ball profile is in line with 2023. Again, if he’s healthy, I’m not quitting Lewis. The problem is he’s hardly ever healthy so if we get news of another injury, I’m fine to move on, but not until then

Mike: How confident are you in Hays and Crews when healthy in a 12 team H2H league with 5 OF?  I am starting to lose confidence in Grisham (one fill in) and am streaming the other spot.

Paul Sporer: I still quite like both so hopefully Grish can hold the fort until they come back

MF Luder: Any concern with an innings limit on Mick Abel?

Paul Sporer: Always has to be a concern for a prospect, especially one w/his BB issues

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I have to cut a little early to get setup for a 2pm meeting. Thanks so much for coming out! I’m headed to Charlotte this weekend for the Savannah Bananas game so weekend board posting might be sporadic! Take care, y’all!!

Paul Sporer: Oh and I’m working on the first in-season SP rankings update. Should be ready later next week.