Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 28th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming!!!

Greg: Deep 12T points league, pick 2: Nootbaar, Conforto, Suwinski

Paul Sporer: Tight group, but I’d go Noot-Suwinski-Conforto

Will: Hi Paul,

Paul Sporer: Hi!

Guestavo: Will I regret dropping J.Baez in a 12 teamer? Replace with KC’s M.Garcia??

Paul Sporer: I really doubt it

Will: Hi Paul,  what do you think the Pads will do with Juan Soto long-term?  With the Ballys TV deal falling apart, do you see them being more conservative in their spending?  I’m in an NL-only league and am worried I’ll lose Soto to Yankees.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’d be really surprised if they find a way to give him a huge deal, too. That said, I’m not entirely sure where he will land so you might not lose him to the AL even if he doesn’t sign w/SD

Giancarlo Stanton: patience or panic?

Paul Sporer: Panic, I’d be OK moving on in some shallower formats

Savages In the Box: Appreciate the time you take out of your day for these.

Paul Sporer: Happy to do so!

TheBigFluff: Hey! Can you rank: Casas, Mountcastle, Raley? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Raley-Casas-Mountcastle is my ranking

Guesty: Berti’s PT going to dry up with the return of Jazz and Segura?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think he will struggle to play regularly especially bc he himself isn’t doing all that well

Guest: Siri or Buxton ROS? Are they similar?

Paul Sporer: They are definitely a lotttt more similar than any of us would’ve believed coming into the season. If I needed the SBs more, I’d lean a little toward Siri, but overall, I still shade toward Buxton as his projections are a good bit better

Scott TINSTAAPP: Broke a long slump and won a Perfect Draft tourney last week, felt good! Been enjoying this year’s Perfect Team season!

Paul Sporer: Let’s gooo!!! Winning a PD feels so great, especially if you didn’t have the best draft only to see the guys pop off unexpectedly! Got some really fun cards coming in tomorrow’s content, too… stay tuned!

LilTBone: Mountcastle is 0-14 in rehab. Are we concerned? Is he a drop if I have no IL spots considering how vertigo has affected players in the past (meadows, Frazier, etc). Thanks

Paul Sporer: Definitely have some concern. I have vertigo (it’s dormant most of the time, but the 2 flare ups I had years ago were debilitating. I know not all experiences are the same w/it, though) and I know how much it messes me up just being a random internet dweeb, I can’t imagine having it as an athlete. I’m OK cutting in 12s and lower

Manoah: Is all hope lost for a productive second half?

Paul Sporer: A lotttt of hope for a good 2H is lost, yes, but I certainly can’t quit him forever

Rickey: Hi Paul: Thanks for doing these! Do you prefer Patrick Bailey or Bo Naylor in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: They are pretty close to me, but I’ll lean Naylor long-term still

Guest: Do you play much single player on OOTP? If so, how are the trade reputation and trade deadline day features? Thinking about getting it when it goes on the annual All-Star sale.

Paul Sporer: Looove the single player mode, play it a ton! (a bunch on my YouTube and Twitch channels) — I love the new deadline and int’l amateur free agent modes, but I’ve been tepid on the trade reputation function. It feels like it punishes you just for declining a trade from the CPU regardless of how crap it is! That said, the deadline & IAFA features more than cover the reputation being a meager addition this year

RD: Now that EDC has 3B eligibility, who would you rather move in a 12 team H2H league, Franco or Riley?  What kind of return are you looking for for either?

Paul Sporer: Prefer Franco to Riley but both should fetch a mint. Maybe a big time arm if you need some pitching or a premium OF

Steve: Is Stephenson droppable for MJ melendez?  Offensively they look about the same, but MJ is getting more AB’s.  Was hoping Stephenon could rebound, but looks like the Reds are moving him down the order and just using him at catcher two out of three days.

Paul Sporer: I love T Step, he was my dude coming into the year but he just hasn’t come through. I’d be OK making the move bc Melendez has more fantasy juice w/the speed. Keep tabs on T Step bc if he gets going, I love him in that park & lineup, but for now, I’d be good w/the move

Why not Zoidberg?: Not really a question, I just traded C. Javier for Goldschmidt last week and I’m feeling good about it.

Paul Sporer: Solid move!

Chuck: Missed out on Jordan Hicks. Any ideas on the next closer to emerge?

Paul Sporer: It’s been tough as we haven’t seen many closers emerge but I’ll take this opportunity to promote the amazing Reliever Recon Patreon. It’s the greatest RP source in fantasy without a doubt and will keep you abreast of all 30 situations as they develop! https://www.patreon.com/relieverrecon/posts

AD: Is Tim Anderson bad?

Paul Sporer: With the power sapped and the BABIP not sky-high, yes he is. I can see keeping him reserved just in case he gets right, but I can’t envision starting him anywhere and I’m not averse to a shallow league cut

Guest: buying the Kikuchi surgence? Jeff posted how he’s working on offspeed velocities to differentiate his pitches better

Paul Sporer: I see some streamer viability, but I have a hard time trusting him as anything close to a set it and forget it until he reigns in the HR issue

Chip: Ottoneu FG points league – rebuilding and scooped up an $8 Verlander. Good buy, or is he cooked.

Paul Sporer: Solid buy. Not peak JV, of course, but still worth $8!

Why not Zoidberg?: Roster crunch with Muncy and Jazz coming back. 8-teamer H2H. I’m leaning toward dropping Taj and Bryce Miller with other options like Seiya, Happ, or Detmers. Those two the right call?

Paul Sporer: Yep, I’m good with those two!!

Bandon Brelt: hey Paul, need to drop one of the following pitchers to activate Jazz: Paxton, Braxton, Eflin or Steele? It hurts my heart to potentially let any of them go

Paul Sporer: That is a toooouuuggghhh cut and I feel word recommending the cut of someone with a 2.62 ERA and yet here we are: my pick is Steele from that really tough group!

Whoa-tani: Can we just marvel at Ohtani?!  There literally may never be another player like this

Paul Sporer: He is an absolute treasure! Perma-MVP and it’s not even close!

Steve: When you didn’t like Gavin Williams.

Paul Sporer: Pardon?

RAH: Trying to find a 1Bman until Bryce Harper gains eligibility: would you ride the waiver wire with guys like Garrett Cooper, Ryan O’Hearn, Moustakes, etc, or trade for someone like Justin Turner or Lamonte Wade? Can Wade keep this up?

Paul Sporer: I think Wade can stay good, but I’d rather play the wire than trade for him bc I don’t think the difference between Wade and streaming is all that much

Lance Lynn: Am I just a high K, high ERA guy now this season? Any reason I started giving up a ton of BBs and HRs?

Paul Sporer: A lot of “one bad inning” syndrome with Lynn so despite his mid-6s ERA, there has been a lot of good within his 90 IP believe it or not! The HR problem isn’t terribly new, just exacerbated a bit, but more than 2x his BB rate is wild. I wouldn’t be at all surprised by a 2H surge with a new team and would love to see Cincy go for him… though their park wouldn’t necessarily help the HR issue. He’s a team streamer at best right now, but I can’t fully quit Lynn

v2morlew: Man, Allard didn’t even make the starting pitching chart for today.  But a line of 4 2/3 with 3H 1BB 8K and 0R would be pretty solid in most leagues.  Is this a fluke or is he worth keeping an eye on?

Paul Sporer: He’s 23rd on the sheet. I mean, I didn’t reco him for any league, but there was no discernible reason to do so in his season debut given his ugly MLB track record. Not a bad outing and it puts him on the radar but I’m not rushing to get him or anything. If he stays on track, it sets up for an at CLE start next wk which could have some deep lg appeal

Joe a: Hi Paul – in a yahoo 12 tm h2h points league. Worth dropping Taj Bradley or Logan Allen for Josiah Gray or a multi-inning RP like Sborz?

Paul Sporer: No I don’t think so

Paul Sporer: Bradley getting merked by ARI was a bummer, but the Baby Snakes rule and it was on the road. I’m not off of him based on that

JT: Hold Lourdes through this slump, or stash Cowser?

Paul Sporer: I’d hold Gurriel. Seems like a standard cold snap as opposed to signs of major trouble

Guest: Paul you are not a random internet dweeb lol

Paul Sporer: Thank you!

Farhandrew Zaidman: Manoah is really just justifying every OOTP save where he completely melts, which sucks, because when he’s good he’s SO FUN. Like the All Star game mic moments.

Paul Sporer: LOL I didn’t even think about that. It has pissed me off as I regularly acquire him in my saves over the last 2 seasons and he rarely ends up as more than a mid-rotation guy. OOTP knew!!!!

Steve: Referencing last weeks chat when you were out on Gavin in every scenario presented to you.

Paul Sporer: This feels like an attempted gotcha but I’m entirely sure why… first off, do we get to go through and pick out the things I got right last week, too? I don’t regret choosing to cut him in this group:

Jax: Would you drop any of the following for Logan Gilbert: Eury, Pablo Lopez, Bryce Miller, Gavin Williams

And I said to take him & Bibbee in this deal:

Katie: I was offered Bibbe and Gavin Williams for Sandy Alcantara in a dynasty.  Should I take it?

And then I said to stick w/Allen over him here:

Guest: Drop Logan Allen to pick up Gavin Williams? 10 team points league

Not really sure I made any egregious errors there. A great outing v. KC doesn’t really change any of that IMO

Kyle: Crazy to cut Correa for Royce Lewis? Yes, Correa is definitively my worst hitter

Paul Sporer: Need league settings on questions like this, but I don’t hate this move. I’ve always loved Correa, but I’m fully in the tank for Lewis, too, and he likely has more fantasy juice pound for pound

Guest: but Paul, you said GAVIN WILLIAMS RAR RAR BLARRH RAR

Paul Sporer: lol I’m not even trying to be uber-defensive, but I was surprised to see where I picked guys over Williams and they all felt pretty defensible

Tyler: Santander or Verdugo RoS?

Paul Sporer: It’s close and if you don’t have specific category needs, I lean Santander by a little bit

B’ryce Szymbobski: Paul, you are SUCH a random internet dweeb!

I kid, I kid

Paul Sporer: Truuuee!! 🙂

Re: Allard: It was vs the Twins so any starter is guaranteed a TON of Ks

Paul Sporer: That’s definitely a fair point! Still felt there was some major downside w/Allard, but yeah if you need Ks, streaming v MIN is usually a good idea

Phil: Keeper league.  If someone offered Cease and Detmers for my Eury, would you accept?

Paul Sporer: I would, yes

Paul Sporer: Pitcher is notoriously volatile and all 3 have major stud upside, so give me 2 cracks at an ace v. just 1

Pederman: Are we moving on from Cpt. Alejandro Kirk?

Paul Sporer: In 1-C leagues, for sure. In 2-C leagues, there are absolutely scenarios where I’m good to move on, especially w/the injury

B’ryce Szymbobski: Pick one for next week:
Verlander @SD, Bello vs TEX, or Castillo @HOU?

I’m leaning Castillo, right?

Paul Sporer: If I can only do one, yes Castillo

shawn: whats your take on clevelands rotation with quantrill coming back? who is being sent out out of the 3 rookies?

Paul Sporer: That’s a good question. Quantrill slated to start Friday and Civale’s stuff doesn’t really play up in the bullpen so it seems like one of ’em has to head back to AAA, right? I wonder if it’s just a last-in, first-out kinda deal meaning Williams goes back? This isn’t a diss on Williams, please don’t save this to throw at me if he stays up

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately, injury will probably decide it sooner than later as if often the case w/SP depth

B’ryce Szymbobski: What are you doing with Eury Perez? Think Miami just rests him for a couple weeks then keeps playing the 85 pitch game with him till they’re out of contention? Dude’s been a BAD man, and I’m getting early Jose Fernandez vibes.

Paul Sporer: Gottttaaaa hang onto him right now. Just too damn good to cut even w/this planned time off

T: Is it time to move on from Tork? I’m hold him now bc he’s playing at Coors soon…

Paul Sporer: Depends who you’re cutting for, but yeah at least ride out the week

shawn: on the latest podcast, you and justin seemed big on suzuki. are you taking him over taveras?

Paul Sporer: Oh man, hitting me w/2 Sporer faves! Honestly, I think Taveras has leapt Suzuki w/his 8 SBs while Suzuki is 1-for-6 on the bases. Big on Suzuki & picking him up in most spots, but Taveras is just ahead of him for me

Paul #2: Joey Votto vs. CJ Cron for rest of season points league- who you picking?

Paul Sporer: Gotta take the Coors Crusher in a narrow one. Love that Votto has hit the ground running and definitely sparks memories of his huge 2H from 2021, but I’d be floored if he did that again. Cron’s sudden return was no doubt surprising but a healthy Cron is still someone I want

RAH: Lance Lynn’s follow up to his 16k performance was okay, but now faces LAA and TOR his next 2 starts. He’s back on the bench, right? (Deep league to even be considering)

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m sitting him for those, but still holding on reserve

Kevin: Start Hunter Brown @TEX this weekend in a QS league? Is he an automatic start no matter what at this point?

Paul Sporer: Yeah damn near an Auto Start for me regardless of format. It’s conceivable that you could find a sit in 10s or shallower with a deep enough rotation, but I don’t really have any qualms about setting it and forgetting it w/Brown!

Paul Sporer: OK, I gotta head out and get back to working on a few things. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!