Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 21st, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming out!!

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. The Catcher carousel continues to spin for me. 12tm 6×6 roto: T. Stephenson, B. Naylor, H. Davis, or Y. Diaz going forward? I know how you feel about rookie Cs, but it’s bleak out here

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna stick with T Step in that group right now, but he’s on notice. He’s been hitting for some pop of late w/3 HR in his last 25 gms (~20 HR pace) so if he can keep going for another couple wks, I think we could see a big summer. If he falls off again soon, Diaz in my #2 there

Guestavo: Is Flaherty rosterable in a 12 teamer or more of a streamer?

Paul Sporer: Streamer in 12s w/that BB rate

Guestie: In a 12 teamer these are all FAs. Lynn, Woo, Flaherty. What priority for FAB??

Paul Sporer: The order you’ve listed ’em in how I’d attack

Scott TINSTAAPP: Assuming Gavin Williams takes care of business tonight, what do you think his FAAB prices will be considering the pool has been significantly drained of funds to date?

Paul Sporer: The thing is, I’ve been thinking these banger prospects were going to drain prices on these guys but it seems there’s always at least someone with enough money to keep the bids high on these studs. If he pops off v. OAK, we’ll see plenty of triple digit bids (out of $1000 budget) across the many formats. I can see consistent $200+ bids for 15-teamers and $100+ in shallower formats

Scott TINSTAAPP: Follow up on the Gavin Williams question, with Skubal coming back imminently, who would you prefer splashing on this year in FAAB if you have only one shot left?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine Skubal will be cheaper and I think his upside is at least equal to Williams so for that reason, I’d lean his way

Mirage Bradley: Given the state of LAD pitching, any chance Kershaw isn’t given a phantom IR stint?

Paul Sporer: Certainly possible but they will protect him above anything so if he needs a breather, they will bring Fernando Valenzuela back if necessary

Guest: suwinski – hold or drop in 3 OF?

Paul Sporer: Not a must-hold, no. Probably open to reserving but if there’s someone I want on the wire, I’m down

Bomo: I only mixed leagues. What happens in an AL only league if a player gets traded to NL at the deadline?

Paul Sporer: Kinda split — some leagues do SOL (shit outta luck… meaning you just lose the guy) and others allow you to keep the guy. I used to prefer SOL years ago, but it just adds too much variance to a format that is already so tight with the waiver wire so punishing someone for something out of their control doesn’t feel like the right move

Broken Bat: What do you think about Sanchez of Melina?

Paul Sporer: Who?

Josh Lowe: Am I a “rookie hits the wall and readjusts” kinda guy or am I “the league figured me out and it’s downhill from here” kinda guy?!

Paul Sporer: I think the former is perfectly in play. His Ks are up this month, but still at a palatable 25% K rate for the year. I’m sticking w/him through this first downturn before running away off the cold streak

A-A-Ron: Will Triston Casas break out this year?

Paul Sporer: I was definitely drafting him with that hope in mind but the power has been light thus far. He definitely has the pop to go off w/a ton of summer HRs so I’ve been holding in my 15-teamer, but he isn’t some must-hold in shallower formats where there are plenty of 1B available

erghammer: The Sox are on the verge of being slightly above average. Should they buy or sell at the deadline? The sitting on the fence thing didn’t work out so well last year. Thanks for the chat.

Paul Sporer: The Red Sox? That division makes life tough, but I could see them adding a bit, mostly around the edges, to stay in the mix

kaiju dragons: What to do with Varsho?

Paul Sporer: He’s the 5th ranked C, just start him everyday. His HR/SB have been more than enough to withstand the paltry AVG

Trey: better option ROS: Volpe or McLain? categories are OPS, runs, HR, RBI, SB

Paul Sporer: I don’t want to just take the guy doing better right now, but I’m also a bit worried that Volpe’s 70 wRC+ could eventually get him sent back to AAA and thus I lean McLain’s way. I also love what Cincy is doing w/their young offense and of course, their park!

Violet: Think Gorman has a re-adjustment in him? Been terrible for a month.

Paul Sporer: The vagaries of massive swing-and-miss guys. 46% K rate and .154 BABIP are insane and mostly just a cold streak. I think he will work through it and get back on track

Fant’sy Feast: General question: if someone asks a question without providing league details, would you assume weekly or daily lineups? What’s more standard?

Paul Sporer: I assume roto lg/weekly moves. Might be wrong, that’s my default.

Bomo: In general, should we ignore actual BA and SLG in favor of xBA and xSLG when evaluating players?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think so. I’m not sure those x-Stats are super predictable for one and even insofar as they are, I worry they are leaned on too much as magic bullet stats. I’d rather just understand the player’s whole profile and what makes up the x-Stats he’s generating

PJ: In 9th right now and my bats are failing me. How likely do you see guys like Ezequiel Duran and Jeimer Candelario continuing to produce?

Paul Sporer: Duran has some fantasy juice and is part of a great lineup so I like riding his bat right now even though his plate skills are ripe for a cold streak in line w/some of the other guys we’ve discussed today (Lowe, Kelenic, Gorman). Jeimer is a streaming hitter type in just about any format, tbh

Deep NL Only Roto League: Would you rather have Jacob Amaya or Derek Hill?

Paul Sporer: I know Hill is kinda raking in AAA (8 HR/10 SB/126 wRC+) but I think it’s probably just a hot streak as opposed to a post-hype breakout. Gimme Amaya over him

Pauly Sporealz: I may keep Eury over Vladdy. Lol.

Paul Sporer: All costs being equal? I love Eury, but I’m not there yet. Just no way Vladdy continues to flounder this much at home

Jason: I have Yandy Diaz as my 1B in a 10 team league. I would like to trade for Goldschmidt. Would Yandy plus Stott or Starling Marte be a reasonable offer?

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to say in 10s because usually you want to be in the spot you’re trying to go – consolidation of talent. If the Goldy manager needs speed and can fit those guys, it’s not a bad offer, but if they’re speed is fine and they don’t have any SS need, it probably lands flatly for them

Farhandrew Zaidman: Stroman pretty active on Twitter that he wants an extension but the Cubs aren’t playing ball. I know the division is trash, but is the writing on the wall that the Cubs are trading him at the deadline?

Paul Sporer: Yeah unless they have a run, I think he’s traded. They can likely get a very nice piece for him

Nathan Eovaldi: How worried are you about me with the velo drops recently?

Paul Sporer: Worried enough to be concerned given his health history, but not so much to do anything actionable. Still starting him in DET/HOU 2-step next week barring negative news, of course

Engelbert: Is Jake Cronen-worth holding onto? Career-worst numbers this season. 12-team Yahoo points league.

Paul Sporer: No issue you cutting him. Gotta be many viable options on most 12-team wires

Kyle Lewis: Safe to assume Kyle Lewis doesn’t end up contributing this year? He is starting to hit better on the farm.

Paul Sporer: He’s a guy I root for but I can’t imagine stashing him anywhere except maybe like an NL-Only. I just don’t have a ton of hope that he finds enough PT to do much and of course there is ever-present concern about his health

Leody Taveras: Do you see me continuing to produce at or near this level ros?

Paul Sporer: Long-term Leody believer but I don’t wanna be a Confirmation Bias Carl just bc he’s doing well right now & say it’s 100% legit. That said, the skills are looking sharp w/improved K & BB numbers and more pop in his bat. The speed has always been there and we could absolutely be at the frontend of a breakout season. I’ll definitely hold him through his next cold streak when it comes (or “if” it comes I guess, but everyone has a couple downturns across even great seasons)

Farhandrew Zaidman: Who you you think gives Wil Myers a shot? Marlins? Pirates? Yanks?

Paul Sporer: I was a huge fan coming into the year and that obviously flopped. I totally understand Cincy’s move given the players they have, but I don’t think his bat is cooked when healthy. I’d take a shot if I were Miami for sure as Garrett Cooper just isn’t getting it done

Pauly Sporealz: I don’t wanna jinx it, but man, I think I’m about to get Urias, Rodon and Jazz back. Lol. Hallelujah!

Paul Sporer: What an infusion of talent!!

Broken Bat: Sanchez of Marlins is actually showing of a lot of growth for a 24yo. I realize he sits same side, but check the squared up hits, decrease of Strikeouts and BABIP. Both Sanchez and Tavares of Rangers seemingly have arrived. Vierling of Tigers  is following. thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Mentioned my Leody Love earlier but I’m also in on Sanchez. Still just 25 yrs old, he was a bit of an afterthought at the draft table despite having plenty of talent. Taveras is the easy #1 on this trio and then Sanchez is a firm #2 over Vierling for me

Jax: Would you drop any of the following for Logan Gilbert: Eury, Pablo Lopez, Bryce Miller, Gavin Williams

Paul Sporer: Gavin Williams is probably the one I’d cut for him right now. Gilbert definitely needs to be rostered but you have a good group there so maybe you can get the OAK start for him tonight and then cut Williams

PJ: Also at what point do you consider selling off for next year?

Paul Sporer: It can vary for sure and a huge rash of injuries will likely move the timeline up, but if it’s just under performance of guys I believe in, I stay pretty patient and don’t try to start selling off until now-ish through the All-Star break

Been Puky Suzuki: When is Seiya going to turn it around? he looked good under the hood but hasn’t done much more than run back his stats from last year. Is there something I’m missing?

Paul Sporer: I feel he’s mostly been fine given that he started the season hurt and it’s mostly just the 2 wks this month crapping on his big May. I’m holding / picking up where available

Greg: Any excitement for Luis Matos in a shallow league? Power hasn’t transferred from AAA but he looks good out there. He’d maybe replace Santander or Buxton

Paul Sporer: Not over those 2, no. Buxton has sputtered since May 1st w/just a .164 AVG but 4 HR/6 SB is a 22/32 full season pace so he’s still giving some fantasy juice. That’s my biggest issue w/Matos, if he’s not hitting for AVG, where’s the juice?

Chud: What to make of Alex Kiriloff? Seems like he’s finally healthy but not doing much?

Paul Sporer: When his paper wrists (I don’t even know what “paper wrists” means, but y’all understand what I mean when I say it, lol) are healthy, he can be a G, but it’s just so hard to trust the health piece

Rick: Miguel Vargas has struggled most of the year. Do you see him losing playing time the second half and how to you view him long-term?

Paul Sporer: My long-term outlook on him is unchanged based on his YTD MLB work, I still believe in him fully, but he could start losing PT in the short-term if the production doesn’t get going. Love that 13% BB rate to keep him getting on base, but the Dodgers need more than an 89 wRC+ and will make moves to fill in those gaps

Jason: What kind of value does Verlander have at this point in the season?

Paul Sporer: You’d definitely have to give him at a discount if you’re trading him given the age and relatively modest output thus far. Still should be able to land a useful piece, though, and if not, just keep him

Kevin: Javier just issued 3 walks and 1 HBP in an inning and didn’t allow a run.

Paul Sporer: Damn that’s living right!

Cd: Riding the hot hand at 1B in a 10t. Mountcastle on IL. Is it Nolan Jones or B Donovan right now?

Paul Sporer: Go Jones with Colorado headed home for 3 series after this Cincy series

Eh’s?: How would you rank the A’s starters Sears, Harris, Blackburn? (Assuming Kaprelian is not in the conversation)

Paul Sporer: In that order and I’m actually rostering both Sears & Harris in my 15-tm Main Event (neither starting right now). Obviously the win probability is almost non-existent, but all 3 are throwing well enough to have some deep league consideration!

Tommy: What’s the concern level with alcantara right now?

Paul Sporer: Elevated to be sure! I’m still not cutting, but he’s definitely finding the bench in a lot more leagues after another dud. Credit for adding 5 scoreless after the 5-run 2nd inning, but he just isn’t the stud we saw last yr thus far

Rays of Light: So sad when you see a team score 7 runs and the 3 hitters you have in the lineup have 0 hits…

Paul Sporer: That is SO brutal

Reds: Stephenson is 3/4 R and DH’ing. I don’t know what to do with this info.

Paul Sporer: He heard us talking about him… err, typing about him!

Kaiju: Leody or Jake McCarthy / lane Thomas

Paul Sporer: Leody!

Katie: I was offered Bibbe and Gavin Williams for Sandy Alcantara in a dynasty.  Should I take it?

Paul Sporer: Yes and I’d probably be down to do that even if Sandy was rockin’

Justin: What’s the general consensus on G Stone?

Paul Sporer: Still plenty of upside, sick changeup, in the right org to pan out. Don’t bury him based on these early struggles

Detmers: Am I worth Ben Brown, Encarnacion Strand, and Ruiz?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think, so. Unless Ruiz can rocket you up the SB ranks and earn a ton of roto pts, otherwise I’m sticking w/Detmers. He’s a stud to me

Guest: Drop Logan Allen to pick up Gavin Williams? 10 team points league

Paul Sporer: No, I’d stick w/Allen

Aaron: VOTTO STILL BANGS (not a question, just a statement of fact)

Paul Sporer: Damn right!

Ned: is this kid diaz catching for houston worth dropping raleigh for? thx!

Paul Sporer: Looove Yainer Diaz! I can get behind a Raleigh cut for Diaz in a 1-C league

TheBigDoodle: how would you rank: Bibee, kyle Harrison, detmers. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Detmers, Bibee, Harrison

Richard: In a 12-team AL only, would you drop Grandal for Yainer Diaz?

Paul Sporer: Yep!

McBoatface: Slim pickins for Houck replacement in AL-only league: How would you rank Kutter Crawford, Chirinos, or Sborz? thanks

Paul Sporer: In that order with Kutter #1 by miiiillleeesss. Legit shocked he’s available in an AL Only!

Guest: Bregman entering the downswing or just an off year?

Paul Sporer: Really thought the power was back after the 2H of last yr but now we’re 2+ mos. in w/a sub-.400 SLG  so I guess not re: the pop. Might just be who he is now. Didn’t expect 2018-19 to return, but was thinking a mid-.800s OPS was plenty possible

Violet: 16 team roto: would you send Wells to get McMahon if you had some pitching depth to spare and needed a bat?

Paul Sporer: Definitely, that’s a fair deal!

DoSo: Hey, is this Eflin thing for real?  I can take a stab at him in my league for a trade, but just not sure.  Underlying stuff looks good…guess I’m looking for a second opinion?  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. There was always some intrigue in Philly based on his raw stuff and now w/one of the best teams in the league developing him, it’s hard not to dive headfirst into this surge since it feels like the talent was always there & he just needed the directions on how to best use it!

Craig: Would you deal alcantara for detmers in a dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m OK w/that

T-Step: Well, since you’re all talking about me….me or Yainer?

Paul Sporer: Talked some T-Step early, still sticking w/him, but especially love Diaz in 2-C formats

Ian: How would you rank, Kopech, Goilito, Cabrera ROS

Paul Sporer: Gio-Kopech-Cabrera

Phil: Hunter Brown for Carlos Correa in a dynasty 5×5 OPS, QS league. Who you got?

Paul Sporer: Lean Brown there, just such a big fan of him

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out. Gotta get some errands done as we’re headed out of town on Friday!

Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

Mr. Fister: Alcantara for Detmers?  Really?  Surely we haven’t lost THAT much faith in CY Sandy, right?  Or do you just have that much optimism for Detmers?  I haven’t looked at the underlying numbers.  I would think Sandy has earned some leash.

Paul Sporer: That’s more pro-Detmers than anti-Alcantara… I think Detmers has ace upside. He misses bats, too. I’m not 100% out on Sandy or anything

Paul Sporer: OK, bye for real!