Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 19th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Jacob B: How about those Mariners?

Paul Sporer: Great pitching can paper over issues if the limited hitting is timely enough! I don’t say that to hate on ’em, especially because there is some upside in that lineup and we know Trader Jerry will be on the horn trying to figure out how to improve it

Bob: Would you drop Jake Meyers for Soler or Noelvi if you only had 14 transactions left for the season?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure either is a big enough upgrade to make the move right now

I Used to be Mel Clark: Thanks for doing the chats, Paul! Cole Ragans is a Top ___ SP in Dynasty going forward.

Paul Sporer: No problem, always appreciate folks hanging out! I’d say Top 12 at least. He’s having the kind of season his biggest proponents were hoping for and still just 27 years old.

Maestro: Wyatt Langford finally went deep yesterday! He’s about to go off right? RIGHT?!

Paul Sporer: Not sure if he will definitely go off, but I have some optimism. His overall skills profile is appealing enough that a fix or two should be enough to unlock him. The only hideous thing in his profile is the 5th-ranked Infield Flyball Rate (min. 150 PA). Corbin Carroll is suffering a similar issue at 26% (2nd behind Joey Gallo’s 27%). He’s also got 5 SBs in his last 9 games so any concerns that the hamstring would slow him down have been assuaged. So I’m cool staying the course for a bit Langford and checking back in around the All-Star break

Positive Panda: Is it time to cut Ober?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size. I can see some drop cases in 10 teamers bc of his inconsistency, but I’m still a fan will definitely hold in 12s or deeper through his next 2 starts (at OAK, at ARI)

I Used to be Mel Clark: As a tag on–would you rather keep Ragans or Glasnow, given you could only keep one?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Ragans slightly. I know Glasnow is in the midst of a breakout year and he is just so excellent on a per inning basis, but until he hopefully smashes that record this year, he has a career high of just 120 IP and has eclipsed 100 IP just 2x

Greg: Time to hop off the Luis Garcia Jr train? Projections have him around 100wRC+ ROS.

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size. Kind of a bland fantasy player, but the running ways of the Nats does give him some SB upside (9 so far). I think there’s still a spot in 15 teamers and maaaybe some 12 teamers if you have an MI spot, but shallower formats can move on until he catches fire again (.532 OPS in June)

Pete: Is David Hamilton viable rest of season and a top keeper for next year in your opinion?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think we can confidently say that until we see the rest of his season. Thankfully he came back from the side injury and stole a base in a pinch running situation. That doesn’t mean he’s 100% healthy, but it was nice to see so quickly after he left the game. But yeah, if he keeps playing like we’ve seen, there’s a ton of fantasy heat here and he could wind up being one of the pickups of the year

Todd Gak: In a deep league where pitching is THIN.  Any of DL Hall, Chase Silseth, or Aaron Ashby worth a speculative add?

Paul Sporer: I’d jump on Silseth

MS: Here’s your weekly opportunity to talk me off the ledge with Pablo….

Paul Sporer: :looks around nervously:

Paul Sporer: He’s just a HR machine!

Paul Sporer: He gets at OAK/at SEA in his next 2… if we don’t see any improvements there, sitting is very much in play and cuts would enter the picture in all formats

Stick to Sporer-tzballl: Paul-  thanks as always.  Heliot Ramos – sell high ASAP?  Or can he be an above average counting stats as a cheap keeper the next few years?  Lots of red on the statcast but poor swing decisions?

Paul Sporer: I like Ramos a bit more than Justin did on the pod so I’m not sure you have to sell him immediately. He’s not going to maintain a 32% HR/FB but he’s a 24 yr old prospect mashing the hell outta the ball!

Guest: 12-teamer 6×6 with extremely short bench. Have Masyn Winn plugged in at Utility. Would you drop for Noelvi Marte coming back?

Paul Sporer: I’d stick with Winn

KC Pain: Maton called up for Westburg injury…..when will Orioles move some guys so the kids get some MLB time?  Stowers, Norby, Kjerstad, Mayo (still recovering) wasting in minors.  Beavers is gonna be sitting in AAA soon and be blocked by those guys lol

Paul Sporer: They’re not wasting in the minors. Having depth is excellent but unfortunately it does mean that not everyone gets their chance to be fantasy studs right away. I imagine they will make some moves at the deadline to leverage some of that depth, but look what happened to Cincy’s depth after everyone acted like they had waaay too many hitters.

Hot Corner: Do you like Maikel Garcia or Royce Lewis as the better overall player ROS?

Paul Sporer: If healthy, easily Lewis. I like Garcia a good bit, but Lewis is on another level

Fant’sy Feast: Thanks for doing these! Weird hypothetical to see how you think about draft vs in-season: would you rather have 1st pick in a snake (or 1st every round in a straight draft) in exchange but have last waiver priority all season OR last pick with 1st priority all year?

Paul Sporer: Last pick with top priority for sure! I think I can put together a capable team from the last spot and then getting that full season advantage is a waivers pick up league would be a great edge to fixing the draft issues I do run into

Rockey: who would you drop, Bello or Ober?

Paul Sporer: Bello

Archi: Burleson or Belday ROS?

Paul Sporer: Bleday for me! I quit my guy too soon!!! Didn’t get him anywhere after being a superfan the last few years. But I love what we’ve seen thus far. Big drop in K rate down to 19% and a lot more pop showing. He has hit well at home, too, so I don’t mind starting him consistently. I do like Burleson, too, but I think Bleday’s power gives him more fantasy upside

Guest: Rather have Gavin Stone or one of the soonish-to-return TJS guys like Ray or Springs?

Paul Sporer: Stone for me

Prospect Hound: Have you ever tried taking Eric Longenhagans prospect rankings and converting them to ‘Fantasy EVs’?  Maybe weigh hit/power/speed tools more heavily?  I still think

Prospect Hound: That last message cut off.  I was going to say, I still think defense is important to keep players on the field, but not as important as offense obviously

Paul Sporer: I missed linking up with him this spring to do our prospect extravaganza but I can definitely ask him who some of his biggest risers & fallers are when it comes to fantasy. Definitely gonna see if I can get him on the pod here in the next couple weeks to see if we can uncover some 2nd half prospect gems

The Baseball: Worth holding onto Bradish with limited IL spots or do you think he’s just done for the year?

Paul Sporer: If you’ve got the IL spot available, might as well hold him while you can, but if a more deserving hold gets hurt, Bradish is the cut

Guest: For a bench streamer, pick up Irvin or Pfaadt?

Paul Sporer: I’d definitely check upcoming schedules, but on talent I lean Pfaadt

JoJo: Should I ship Walker Buehler or hold on to him and hope he figures it out? Not sure he’s the same as pre TJ…

Paul Sporer: If you can improve the team, I’m certainly open to moving him. He might just be uneven this year with 2025 being the time to really jump back in. The Dodgers ideally hope he’s ironed out in time for October

KC Pain: Would you have Mitch Keller in your.top 25 SP?

Paul Sporer: No he’s not quite that high. Still working on the June update. Wasn’t able to get it done for yesterday so we could discuss today but we’ll be discussing ’em next chat for sure as they’ll be out no later than Wednesday morning.

Eric: Just traded Randy aro away for Nestor and varsho..thoughts? 5×5 obp league

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s a sharp deal!

MS: Expectations for Cole today?

Paul Sporer: 5 strong

Guest: Gimenez droppable in a 10-team league?

Paul Sporer: Would really depend who you’re getting bc I don’t think I’m moving off him yet. Still 12th best 2B on the player rater and 2 of the top 12 just got hurt. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/player-rater?pos=2B

Billy Bathhouse: Any under the radar/emerging stolen base threats to monitor?

Paul Sporer: Nationals guys getting PT

MS: Does Arozarena have any fantasy trade value at this point?!

Paul Sporer: Previous chatter getting Nestor/Varsho would suggest so, though all leagues differ in trade quality

Beau: I’ve gotta ask someone. What’s the deal with Brandon Belt not getting signed? Odd situation

Paul Sporer: It is kinda surprising as he’s shown more prototypical 1B power in the last couple seasons so I don’t know why no one wants him as a strong side platoon piece

Jared jones: i think pirates must be disappointed in his treatment/reactions to teammates’ defense. He is also not responding well to umpires’ squeezing his strike zone a bit. Should we be concerned?

Paul Sporer: He’s still a rookie and dealing with his first bout of trouble. He’s earned more than enough credit from me that I’m nowhere near sitting/cutting him, though

KC Pain: I have managed to acquire Burger to go with Mayo, Fry, and Cabbage.  Got Ben Rice off WW and I think I can swing a trade for Trout.  Sad there is no Seth Beer or Phil Coke.  Anyone I am missing and need to add to my themed team?

Paul Sporer: looooool that’s amazing

Colton: What’s a good FAAB bid on Ober in a 14 team league? $100 season budget, I spent $17 on Pepiot last night and the back up bid on him was 0. Currently have $8 on Ober but thinking about increasing it to ensure a win. How high would you go?

Paul Sporer: If Pep is coming $17/0, it certainly feeeeels like Ober at $8 should be good. I understand wanting to secure the dub, but I wouldn’t go TOO much higher. Maybe light double digits locks it

Kevin: Any reason for hope for George Springer?

Paul Sporer: The .218 BABIP is really holding him back and while his lack of hard hits is definitely a contributing factor, I think there’s definitely been some bad luck in the mix holding him down. The plate skills are still great and he is 8-for-8 on the basepaths. I can definitely see a summer surge for Springer if he clicks in a bit w/his swing

Carlos Correa: Do you think he continues his red hot streak?

Paul Sporer: I’ve always been a Correa superfan so I’m more surprised when he’s not cookin like this. So that’s where my bias is… that said, 2023 is very much an anomaly and he’s much more this year’s guy than 2023’s

Al: Dynasty league question – need 1 of 3: Nolan Jones, Josh Lowe, or Jarred Kelenic?

Paul Sporer: Frustrating trio for sure… I thiiink I’ll just go Jones who is basically Lowe but in Coors?

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. I’m currently running David Fry at Catcher with Realmuto out in a 12tm 6×6 roto. He’s definitely cooling, and I’ve missed out on picking up Willson Contreras and Ben Rice. Would you consider dropping Fry for Soderstrom, another non-catching C? It just doesn’t seem like I can sell high on Fry at this point, and have another month to burn until Realmuto comes back, which may not be that great anyway

Paul Sporer: I’m just so tepid on Soderstrom’s ability to stay hot w/his swing-and-miss. I’d probably hold Fry and hope 3 straight lefties on Sun-Mon-Tue can unlock him again

Vinny Pasta: Always enjoy the content. With Noevli Marte coming off suspension next Friday, how do we feel about him ROS. Looking to add talent to my bench, and with Jung coming back soon he won’t be my starting 3B. 10t H2H keepers

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind you going for him in this situation

AL Central Casting: Went with N. Gonzales as a 2B replacement for Mookie in my 12-team mixed (OPS instead of AVG), but I’m not convinced he’s for real. Is he a better choice than W. Castro, Stott, Schneider, Hamilton, Donovan, India, etc? Or should I be planning to rotate through that spot as matchups dictate?

Paul Sporer: Definitely the latter bc while I am a Gonzales fan, I share some of the skepticism on his ability to remain a fantasy force. I’d love to see a better K% rate, too, if he’s not going to walk at all. I’d keep with Gonzales for a bit, but I’d probably map out the upcoming schedules of that group and see if someone jumps out. My faves are Hamilton, Stott, and Castro

Frozen Rope: Why do you think Rays pitchers are all struggling this year – luck ran out or could they have changed something philosophically…

Paul Sporer: I think it’s really the HRs w/the 2nd worst rate of 1.5 per 9. They are best in K-BB at 18% (interestingly the worst HR rate is Minnesota and they are 2nd in K-BB) so they haven’t been pitching THAT much worse. But players live on thin margins between success and failure. And I wouldn’t necessarily say their rotation is a failure, but it’s definitely worse than last year bc of those longballs!

Hollywood Lifestyle: is it worth rostering 2 catchers ? got both smith and murphy

Paul Sporer: And playing 1 at DH or just rotating ’em at C? It’s probably not worth it unless you really have an extra reserve spot and just don’t want to cut a great C. I know trading can be tough, especially in 1-C lgs where it’s easy to feel like you’re doing fine w/a  lot of different options.

Pete: Would you start Bobby Miller today in Coors first game back?

Paul Sporer: Yes I am! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-june-19th-2024/

Guest: Someone in my league just gave up on Mitch Keller.  Add him and drop, say, Luis Severino?  (And thanks for chatting!)

Paul Sporer: Why now?! lol what a weird time to cut Keller. Yes I”d cut Sevvy for him

Guest: Is Vlad basically Nate Lowe now? Very similar stats since 2022, although Vlad has slightly more power.

Paul Sporer: Daaamn that is accurate — https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al…

Hollywood Lifestyle: just acquired goldschmidt, de la cruz and scherzer for arenado, correa, woo, cristopher sanchez

Paul Sporer: Works for me

Guest: Love the SP charts, but you’re really confident in miller at Coors off the IL?

Paul Sporer: Confident… not OVERLY, but the Rockies just haven’t been great at home this year so I’m gonna run the should-be stud back out there!

McBoatface: Thanks for chatting! Who’s the better pickup for Bichette in AL only: Orelvis, Horwitz, Sosa?

Paul Sporer: I like Horwitz!

Billy Bathhouse: How long is your leash with Evan Carter once he returns? 10-team OBP dynasty

Paul Sporer: 3-4 wks

Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta run! I will get that June SP rankings update done in time to discuss it here next week. Have a good one!!