Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 12th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Thanks for coming out!

Why not Zoidberg?: Shallow H2H – Caballero and Pablo Lopez hit waivers. Are you dropping J Ortiz, Langford, or Neris for any of them?

Paul Sporer: I’m all over Pablo Lopez for sure. Even in a shallow lg, I don’t love that cut. Caballero for Ortiz could be fine if you really need SBs

AL OBP league: Bliss vs. Manzardo?

Paul Sporer: Slight Manzo lean

MS: Pablo rest of 1H lines up Col, TBR, at Oak, at Sea, Hou, at CWS….is it now or never?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he deserves it after a tough run in the schedule. I think he’ll be fine, tbh, and he’s been fine through 3 today thus far

D-Mize: Nick and Eno are both starting to fade Casey Mize hard. Is he a cut in an AL Only keeper? (Arrighetti or a similar streamer, or an RP, would be replacement)

Paul Sporer: I’m fine getting Arrighetti. My main concern was gonna be what you can really pick up, but if Arri is available, I’m all over it for Mize

BlueJayMatt: Who do I start at 3B – Royce Lewis or Alec Bohm? Do I start either of them at Util in place of JD Martinez?

Paul Sporer: I’d prob run both 3B

MS: Arozarena…are we still riding through it? Benching? Moving on?

Paul Sporer: I thought maybe we were seein a little somethin to start the month but I’m probably grasping at any little sample. Originally I was saying the fantasy juice is there so you can hold, but we’re now nearly a month with 0 HR/SB so is most definitely benchable and probably a viable cut in shallower formats at this juncture

Coors is undefeated: Just a friendly PSA that the Rockies have 17 of 22 at home starting Friday.  They even nicely have the 5 road games all in the same week from 6/24 – 6/30 so you can sit guys for that week in weekly moves leagues. Blackmon is probably on a lot of waiver wires and has been good for a little over a month (.812 OPS since 5/8) and has a home OPS over 200 points higher for his career (.861 at home this year). He leads off every day and has virtually no platoon splits for his career (actually a slight reverse split in recent seasons).

Paul Sporer: Let’s goo!!

Paul Sporer: Pablo Lopez gave up a bomb… jinxed him

Guest: Are there any HR/SB left before Adell is DFA’ed? CS at 3rd with 2 outs down 3 runs in the 7th last night… how can you be 25 and do that stuff?

Paul Sporer: EVERY time I see, he has a major blunder of some sort… usuallyyyy base running. It’s wildddd

Paul Sporer: Rumors of his ascent may’ve been exaggerated

Rocky: Who do you prefer among Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin, David Peterson and Keaton Winn?

Paul Sporer: I’ve really fallen for Parker. Legitimately was unaware of him coming into the year but I’ve been so impressed with what he’s done. I’ve now watched like 6 of his starts and just find myself trusting him quite a bit, even in tougher matchups

Colton: I have Amador in my home dynasty league. I have until Sunday to promote him and drop a bad contract for free, or release him and hold on that contract. I’m concerned about him being optioned cause it’s so clearly a Rockies thing to do, but I need some help on what you think may be best choice here. Thanks for any advice!

Paul Sporer: Oh maaannn that is tough because the Rockies are ALWAYS going to Rockies. That said, I think you gotta run it w/Amador and take your shot to get out from under a bad deal

99: Colt Keith’s playing time seems to be dwindling.  How do they deal with him after signing him to a long term deal?  Can you send him down at this point?

Paul Sporer: Oh they can def send him down if needed. That said, I think he has delayed that potential fate w/the good hitting prior to the modest June start. He missed 2 gms in a row, but 1 was vL and the other was his first missed gm vR since May 6th

Matt: Thoughts on Maikel Garcia. Initially I viewed him as a great bench/sub, but I’m getting in a bit of a roster crunch and have too much MI. Is he a must roster in deep leagues?

Paul Sporer: He’s had a weird trajectory this year by month w/the HR/SB in April, AVG in May, and then sputtering to start June. But I’m definitely in on him and do believe he’s must-roster in deep lgs

ML: Expectations for Shane Baz this season? I’m going with ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range and 4-5 IP per start.

Paul Sporer: I’m not as bullish there. I’m more 2025 on Baz. I think there’ll be some volatility and I worry the bombs could erase the quality, especially if he is tightly managed on the IP. Love the arm long-term, modest interest this year

Imanaga: In a keeper league and at a very good price. Ride the good times? or sell high if the right offer comes my way?

Paul Sporer: I’m always open to improving the team, but don’t force it. You didn’t pay a premium for Imanaga so even as he regresses, it’s not automatically meaning that you’re wrong for holding. But yeah, entertain offers to see if anyone sees a true ace instead of a nice 2 or elite 3

Greg: What are we doing with Torres in a 10 teamer? His constant 1/4 games aren’t doing much in terms of helping,I have India on the WW. Is it time to make the switch?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK switching him out to try and find a hotter hand in 10s… Gleyber himself may once again emerge as that hot hand you want, but he’s just pretty bland right now

Moar stats please: Please add Z-swing% – O-Swing% (Z-O) as a stat on the plate discipline page. Such a helpful stat and you can’t really find it anywhere that I’ve looked

Paul Sporer: Are they not both there? https://www.fangraphs.com/players/randy-arozarena/19290/stats?position…

Paul Sporer: Ohhh you mean the subtraction of them as its own stat

Paul Sporer: Sorry I misunderstood

Paul Sporer: I can certainly ask! What’s a good Z-O%, btw? Have you dove into it manually to see who’s good?

Guest: Thanks for chatting.  You think deGrom is worth an IL stash in a 12-team mixed league as long as an IL slot is available?  Or are there better IL stash options?

Paul Sporer: If you’ve got the spot, I’m in for deGrom. He’s still very good and even 40 IP would be useful!

Guest: is sending Pete Alonso, Jared Jones, Volpe, and Joey Ortiz an overpay for EDLC and Bichette in an 8 team dynasty?

Paul Sporer: no, that seems OK to me in a shallow league

Guest: when you are with multiple players that have given nothing (albies, arenado, robert, castellanos) do you have pretty much no option but to trot them out and hope they turn it around? things have to get better right?!

Paul Sporer: Yes, you have to stay the course w/these top half of the draft veterans who have YEARS of quality on their ledger. We forget every year just how loooong the season is! Not all of them will turn it around, but a good number will and in a lot of instances, you’re still better off taking the rest of one of these guys v. a waiver pickup (league size dependent, of course)

Guest: ha-seong kim and freddy peralta for fernando tatis jr in a 10 team full keeper?

Paul Sporer: Good by me

Frozen Rope: How long are we going to keep underestimating Alberto Suarez?

Paul Sporer: Probably all year bc his spot will always feel precarious. That said, I’m on the train! Scooped him in the Main Event and have been enjoying his fantastic starts

Joe: How long will I be disappointed that there’s no podcast in my feed?

Paul Sporer: Until tomorrow! Sorry about Monday. I stayed up super late doing some work on Sunday night thinking that I was still a hip young night owl and that shit WIPED me outttt and basically busted up my Monday. I used to be able to bounce back from a 4am night so much more easily lol — but yes, that was on me. We’ll be back tomorrow and Friday!

Guest: Which of the young Orioles would you think has the most long term stability? Which one has the least?

Paul Sporer: Does Adley count as young at 26? As a college guy, he’s a bit older than we might perceive. Beyond him, Gunnar absolutely looks like his running mate atop that team (with PLENTY of support!!). I don’t have anyone that really stands out as destined to underachieve among their studs, would probably just tab one of the lower rated prospects, but then their expectations are gonna be much lower anyway

Guest: Corbin Carroll appears to be turning a corner.  What do you think?

Paul Sporer: While I do think there could be something w/the shoulder that hinders the power, I just refuse to believe the AVG would stay down thatttt low, so I’m glad to see him hitting .333 over the last 2 wks, boosting his AVG 29 pts. It won’t all come at once bc this run includes 5 multi hit gms (3 of ’em for 3 hits) but I won’t be surprised if he maintains .300+ from here forward

Broken Bat: Carrol heating up in Arizona. Snakes have great shot at wild card given other division struggles. Are you seeing this? Figure they go,get a 3rd baseman in a trade, Suarez struggling, Does Patrick Wisdom of Cubs make sense?

Paul Sporer: And yes, I think they’re fully in the mix still!

Rocco: I’m sending PabLo back out for the 6th- I hear some fantasy owners want a QS

Paul Sporer: Why you lie?

Will Graham: Picked up Bailey Ober off the wire in 6×6 12 teamer. 4.00/1.20 the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: I like that bet. I love Ober! If he can tamp the HRs, he’s a stud

Rocco: Nevermind.

SteveS: In a 12 team roto league with QS, would you drop Jose Soriano for Paddock?

Paul Sporer: I’d just play the schedule w/those 2 though I’m not sure that gives us a CLEAR answer: OAK, at OAK, at SEA, DET for Paddack | at ARI, MIL, OAK, DET — Sori’s MIL is the toughest single matchup. Once you factor in supporting cast, I think it is Paddack. I do love Soriano, but yeah Paddack here

Moar Z-O%: I have looked into Zswing%-Oswing% a little. An average-ish number is 38/39%. The top 3 qualified hitters are Seager, Judge and Tucker at over 51%. The bottom 3 are Thairo Estrada, CJ Abrams and Oneil Cruz at under 27% (next on the list is Rutschman at 26.9% BTW). It makes sense to me – who’s swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls. Yes, Albies swings at a lot of balls but he also has the highest swing rate at strikes so he is 4th on the list at 49.3%. Conversely, someone like Frelick doesn’t chase but he doesn’t swing at strikes either so his Z-O% is 27.0% which is bad. I’m no mathematician but I did a scatter plot of Z-O% against wOBA and xwOBA and you can clearly see there is a decent relationship. Checks out on the pitching side too: Sale, Suarez, Houck and Burnes lead (looking at the flip side of the stat where low is good) while Lynn, Quantrill and Nestor lag. It would be another excellent data point to use in evaluating players

Paul Sporer: Is this secretly Justin gunning for more plate discipline metrics?

Paul Sporer: Thank you for the insights! Always down to look into other ways of evaluating players

Guest: Would you sell high on Paul Skenes in a redraft league, the thinking being he’ll be at his innings limit by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around?  I’m tempted to try something like Skenes for Carroll.

Paul Sporer: I’d be open to Carroll, though I do wonder if you’d even have to buy low on a premium bat w/Skenes

Irish Panda: What about Sandoval vs. Mize?

Paul Sporer: Are you fn w/me here… one of my faves I can never give up on and a Tiger?!?

Paul Sporer: I think Sandy offers more fantasy upside if you deploy him properly anddd get some luck

Nick: How close do you view Trevor Megill and Robert Suarez in a SVs+HLDs league?

Paul Sporer: Close w/mixing in the HLDs, big fan of both

Paul Sporer: Have I told y’all about Robert Suarez Main Event story?

Paul Sporer: ROYCE BOMB!

Paul Sporer: AW MAN, it was his 5th HR but only his 8th RBI… would’ve been sick if it had been his 5th HR/9th RBI (iykyk on that one)

Adenolith: Is Candelario somebody I need to roster again? Joey Ortiz is probably the drop.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m good w/that (and that’s more pro-Candy than anti-Ortiz)

Broken Bat: Kjerstad of Orioles is going on age 26… h is playing KIDS 2-3 years younger a

Paul Sporer: He turned 25 in Feb, chill on “going on”

Guest: Royce Lewis is incredible

Paul Sporer: I love him so!

DC: Austin Riley.  Hold all day, right?  No real other choices?

Paul Sporer: Correct. He is the kind you just ride it out. Might catch a bad one, but as long as he’s healthy, he’s rostered

Rocco: also Kjerstad missed a lot of baseball due to Covid complications

Paul Sporer: I was juuust typing that up, so his baseball experience age is probably a bit lower

MS: Why wouldn’t you put Pablo back out there?!

Paul Sporer: Right? C’mon Rocco!!

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: I waited 5 weeks for a guy in my league to drop Royce Lewis, and snagged him asap. Started him his first week back, and I’ve been loving the free power

Paul Sporer: Allllways check the drops right when waivers run! One of the first things I do.

DC: I have Houck, Skenes, Crochet.  First in my league, long arms and short bats. I’m worried about innings limits here.  Who do I move first (3 yr keeper) and what bats are fair targets to expect in return?

Paul Sporer: I think you gotta shop ’em as a group and see who brings you back the most. I don’t think you necessarily have to prioritize one. Crochet might not face a strict IP limit if he’s traded to a contender who needs him. Skenes won’t be run into the ground, but Pittsburgh should absolutely push hard w/Jones & Skenes at their best right now because you NEVER know when they’ll be on fire like this again. And Houck shouldn’t face any major limits at age-28

Rocco: Sorry, Paul and other fantasy owners. I made the difficult decision to take Pablo out after 91 pitches today. Due to the weather and a few other reasons, I wanted Pablo to end today on a high note and walk out after that clean 5th inning. We appreciate your support and look forward to seeing all of you back in 5 games.

Paul Sporer: Thanks, skip!

Broken Bat: Is KJerstad old for AAA at age 25 without any real commitment to serving a lot of time onMLB roster?

Paul Sporer: he’s at -1.6 on the AgeDiff from BRef so yeah he’s not a baby, but he barely has 1000 MiLB PA so I still think his upside is rich and intact

12 team Ottoneu 5×5: Thanks for the Starting Pitcher Charts!  Surprised to find Civale at #26 today, home vs CHC.  Do you prefer Civale or Turnbull as a team streamer for this year.  I expect Turnbill to eventually get some starts and contribute as RP.  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Civale has frustrated me so much. Just so many dang HRs. That said, I still like his core skills and think he’s more secure in the rotation than Turnbull

Seth: When would you start to stash Noelvi in a 10 team league? I don’t want to miss out but also my bats are so bad its tough to stomach a waste of a roster spot

Paul Sporer: Yeah gonna to play chicken w/the other 9 and try to push it as long as you. It’s probably gotta be soon. On the one hand, that’s smart that you acknowledge that it will be a cost in the short-term since you’re bats are struggling and you could use that spot, buuuttt perhaps Marte can be part of the solution so you take a little more short-term heat for long-term potential. I’d try to hold out another 10-14 days. If you get jumped, so be it

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat as always. Trying to make a trade to bolster my dismal offense in a 12tm 6×6. Who should I look to move first: Bello, Kutter, and Taj? Taj has the worst ratios and xStats, but by far the best SIERA

Paul Sporer: Taj and Kutter are also coming off gems so I think they will have the most appeal. Maybe offer both to someone and see who they’d like. I imagine the returns should be similar for both

Mike: Continue to hold Wood and/or Dominguez or pick up available OFs like Marsh, Fraley, Raley Cutch, etc.?

Paul Sporer: I’d only hold one and I’m partial to Dominguez

A’s or Eh’s: The 4 newest A’s starters–Estes, Hogan Harris, Spence, and Medina–each seem interesting in his own way. Are you grabbing any of them?

Paul Sporer: Agreed, I like the group! I know he’s not new, but I like Sears, too!! I picked up Harris from the group but like Estes almost equally. Spence isn’t far behind. He hit my radar right after they Rule 5’d him from NYY. Medina is a live arm, but will have some volatility that could make him a tough roster

Paul Sporer: Lots of great Qs, sorry I can’t stay longer today, but I’ve got some things to get done this afternoon. I’m working on my June rankings and should have them ready soon, ideally before next week’s chat so we can talk about ’em! Let’s use Tuesday as a target. I’m doing more work on them day-to-day this year instead of waiting to do all the work around when I’m gonna post ’em. Take care, y’all

Adenolith: Is Royce Lewis a good return for Skenes or should I aim even higher? Reasonably sure I could get Adolis Garcia as another option.

Paul Sporer: (I’d take Royce, but I’d shoot higher and then “settle” for Royce if they pushback)

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real!