Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 5th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Let’s talk some baseball!

Jake: Confidence mets can still make the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Like 20% or so… wildcard still very much in play

DR J: I know he’s not coming back this year, but any information on Pasquantino health outlook and what post labrum surgery recovery looks like?

Paul Sporer: Shoulders can be really tough on power and he already wasn’t a premiere power guy… I’m nervous for Vinnie P

Phil: 12 team H2H, torn between Henry Davis and Alvarez.  Who do you prefer ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go with Alvarez’s power

Guillermo: I’m dropping Ty France, as I needed him for solid average and OPS. Who is the best option for those needs; Colton Cowser, Harrison Bader or Tommy Pham?

Paul Sporer: Let’s ride that Pham hot hand

Phil: Emmet Sheehan – is he a just a streamer for 12 team H2H or can he be more?

Paul Sporer: He can be, but isn’t yet… just a streamer for now

Paul Sporer: Maybe team streamer so you’re cutting him when you don’t start him

TonyToniTone: Manoah…. You back in after 10ks in AA?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily, no. I think I read that he still had a 50% Ball rate

Rabbit: Hey Paul…happy belated 4th!!  Are you a blow things up all night kinda guy, or a why does everybody have to make all this noise kind of guy?!?

Paul Sporer: The latter almost exclusively in support of my dogs. Charlotte isn’t too bothered by all of it, but Henry definitely doesn’t dig it

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. Are you taking a flier on Cowser in a 12tm 6×6 roto? Other options are T. Ward, T. Pham, H. Bader, and progressively worse team streamers

Paul Sporer: Cowser has some major upside, but I’d probably just run with Pham

Phil: Stanton or Colas for the second half?

Paul Sporer: I’ll lean Colas, especially if CHW commits to him for the whole 2H

Bandon Brelt: losing jazz and thairo over the same weekend really stung. trying to figure out a replacement 2B, would you go Morel or Kim in roto?

Paul Sporer: Going Kim there. 10 HR/14 SB and leading off!

Massimo: Are you a believer in Skubal as a 10 team hold for a QS league?

Paul Sporer: Worth a gamble

Joseph: Hey Paul.  I know Bryce Miller gets more prospect love, but Woo’s underlying metrics are looking pretty good.  Seems like he’s developing more rapidly…

Paul Sporer: Oh yeah, plenty of love for Woo. That said, he will be managed in the 2H — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-7-5-23/

Mike F: FGPts league, just traded Gavin Williams at $1 for 2.5 months of Devers. My pitching is stacked. I didn’t make a mistake did I? Flags fly forever?

Paul Sporer: Oh yeah, this is exactly the kind of move you do when pushing in for a title

Michael: Any concerns about Harper’s lack of power thus far?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure, but that’s probably due in part to coming back so early from the injury. At least he’s delivering everywhere else, though, so he’s still very playable

Second base: Gimenez or Gorman ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably play the ol’ Gimenez if I need SBs and Gorman if I need power line, but if that isn’t a consideration, I lean toward Gorman

ADHD+: If position doesn’t matter, do you like Cowser or Volpe ROS?

Paul Sporer: Volpe’s had some issues but the fantasy juice (HR/SB) has always been there

Francona: Should I be encouraged by Gavin’s start vs Atlanta despite the unimpressive stat line?

Paul Sporer: Yeah given the opponent, I thought it was pretty decent. 3 HR is tough, but again, ATL is a brutal matchup

Scotchy: What are we thinking about EDLC so far?  Overall numbers are looking good, but a lot of K’s

Paul Sporer: That’s Elly in a nutshell! And it will breed some cold spells especially when that .433 BABIP dries up. That said, it’ll be a bit like Volpe where even when his slash line is struggling, there will be fantasy heat w/the HR & SB

Keith Sweat: Dude.  SKUBAL!  That is all

Paul Sporer: It was so nice watching him pitch well and then E-Rod back today!!!!

Potat-oh: What happens with Reese Olson…and by extension the Tigers SP’s…now that they have some guys getting healthy again?!?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a multi-inning RP like we saw yesterday for now, though I’d be surprised if we don’t see him in the rotation again at some pt this yr

A Salty Scientist: McLain looking like a a cromulent middle infielder in Dynasty? I have Jazz and Tatis moving to the outfield next year and am already pretty stacked there (Carroll, Judge, Jackson Chourio, Soler, Buxton if he ever plays the field again).

Paul Sporer: I’d say even more than cromulent w/his pwr-spd output, especially in that park & lineup!

Deeraj: Lawrence McGough Lange ROS? Think AZ will trade for a closer?

Paul Sporer: I do think there’s a good chance ARI brings in RP but I’d go McGough for now. I don’t thiiink Lange will be dealt but he also might not hold the closer’s role if he doesn’t improve that 15% BB rate!!!

JB: Does a trade of ozzie for steer work? is it worth giving up ozzie for steer?

Paul Sporer: Big fan of Spencer Steer, but I would just stick w/Ozzie in this scenario. Hitting higher in the order, deeper track record, and is already doing better than Steer thus far

Franklin: Can we just pause and give thanks for Fangraphs?  My fantasy life would be far worse off without it…

Paul Sporer: Why thank you! FG, Bref, Savant, PitcherList are all part of my daily routine, even during the offseason!

Bobby: Hi Paul, thanks for the chat!  Where are you at on Eovaldi?  Velo was down, looked a bit dicey, but now back up last start, and looking good!

Paul Sporer: His vast injury history makes him someone we’re constantly concerned about so I get why we worried a little after the velo dip, but he’s back to rolling and we’re gonna just enjoy the ride

SIERA: Hey Paul, a general Fangraphs question – any chance we can get SIERA added to player pages? Hate going to the leaderboard, then advanced stats, and then adjusting settings and scrolling to find guys. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: You can already do it with a custom dashboard for player pages like the one I have here:

Paul Sporer:

Greg: McLain or Westburg ROS 10 team H2H?

Paul Sporer: McLain for me, but I don’t think they’re super far apart

Sabey Sabes: Just me or is starting pitching this year one good start, a nuke, good again, nuked again?

Paul Sporer: Definitely feel that similar vibe. Writing the SP chart up regularly has living in the gamelogs and it’s hard for guys to string together 4-5 starts at a time w/out a dud mixed in

ThisGuy: Are we expecting an imminent call-up of E-Strand? Seemed like a sure thing a little while ago….isn’t like Votto is killing it.

Paul Sporer: Problem with Christian Encarnacion-Strand is where does he play? Votto raking off the IL and every other spot is locked. Until something opens via injury or trade, I don’t think we see him

T: Is Acuna in the process of having the greatest fantasy season in our lifetime?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely! We have just 2 seasons of 30+ HR/50+ SB (Bonds & Eric Davis) and he’s pacing for 40/78!!!!!

Guest: just curious, why a column for both GB% and GB/FB

Paul Sporer: Just wanna reference one over the other sometimes. TBH, this board is like a decade old

Farhandrew Zaidman: Conventional wisdom suggests Dodgers could use a Starter, but between all the young dudes and hopefully healthy returning arms, how pressing is the need for a starter versus a reliever?

Paul Sporer: They need both! I wouldn’t be surprised to see them acquire multiple arms at the deadline

bartonbickle: I just lost Thairo Estrada and don’t have any other 2B eligibles. Is Nick Gonzales my best replacement? Other options are Tony Kemp, Ibanez, Perdomo, A. Frazer…Is there anyone to target in a trade that might be flying under the radar?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably for Perdomo as he looks to be the best bet at replacing the pwr/spd that Thairo was giving you

No glasses on!: Will Tiedemann show up before September?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. He’s hurt and hasn’t pitched since early May, plus still has some major control issues to iron out

John Olerud’s Helmet: Mr Paul I seek your infinite wisdom!! Is there any reasonable explanation besides money that the Tigers play Schoop rather than bringing up Colt Keith or any warm body alternative??

Paul Sporer: Mostly just money… of course that money is paid regardless of whether he plays or not and there’s just NOTHING to suggest Schoop will turn it around. I do wonder if a DFA is on the horizon

Guest: 14 team ROTO team and I’m short a reliever, what range reliever do you think I could trade Senga for (if any)?

Paul Sporer: Probably a lower-third of the league type closer

Guest: First place team in my league just traded away Vlad to get Steer, who is a $2 keeper. Vlad is too expensive to keep. Do you think this is a fair deal in a 10 team h2h?

Paul Sporer: Looks like they are trying to thread the needle of winning the league and getting a big time keeper. I guess my question would be about the team getting Vlad. Are they in contention? If not, why on earth did they do it?

Kevin: Time to panic about Cristian Javier?

Paul Sporer: Yes it is. 2-pitch mix catching up to him as the fastball effectiveness is waaaayyy down and the slider isn’t otherworldly to make up for it. He’s really exposing the thin margin for error that 2-pitch guys ride. Strider makes it look easy but that’s bc he has 2 70-grade (maybe even 80-grade!!!) pitches whereas Javier’s are more of the 55-60 grade variety

Kevin: Yandy didn’t hit a single home run in June. Are the good times coming to an end?

Paul Sporer: Yeah it was always going to be really hard for him to maintain a 24% HR/FB rate which is what it was through May. His 19% rate is still a career high and if he doesn’t fix his 15% FB rate since June 1st, it’s going to come down quite a bit more. This is always the tough part about buying into early skill changes bc a lot of times guys slide back into their old habits. I’m not saying we shouldn’t have picked up Yandy and all that, just that maintaining such improvements for 6 mos. is HARD

B’ryce Szmbobski: Spencer Strider’s change up is legit by my eye test. Almost time to stop calling him a 2 pitch pitcher

Paul Sporer: Fair point, though he still uses it just 8% of the time so it’s not really a viable third offering yet. It may have the ability to be one if he needs it, but he hasn’t needed it!

B’ryce Szmbobski: lets she’d some tears for the broken promise of 3B salvation incarnate as CES.

Paul Sporer: Yeah just too many great call-ups for Cincy lol

No glasses on!: Cower up for O’s just another OF bat or something more intriguing?

Paul Sporer: Cowser could definitely be an all-formats dude. I’d pick him up on spec and see where it goes in most leagues. Would depend who I’m cutting in a 10-teamer but 12s and deeper, I should have someone worth cutting for him

Anselm: Have to drop one in a 12 team roto/obp league: Friedl, Raley, Gurriel Jr., Pham, McCarthy

Paul Sporer: McCarthy unless you’re desperate for the SBs. He’s been better since his recall, but doesn’t play daily and mostly bats last

Deeraj: no question this time, just a thank you for making Wednesday just a little bit better.

Paul Sporer: You’re very welcome, ty to you and everyone else for coming out!

Izzy: Cal Raliegh vs Kirk… who’s better, both ROS and dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: With Kirk only hitting .247, it’s not even an AVG v. HR battle and while he could improve from here forward, I’m going Raleigh for ROS. I still lean closer to Kirk for the long-term, though. Still think that bat will develop well and make him a very nice top 10 C

shawn: is trea turner a buy low candidate? he seemed to be earlier in the year but hes still not looking great

Paul Sporer: If I can get a discount on Trea, I’d absolutely buy. I generally like to allow a transition year for guys going into a MASSIVE deal like his so I wasn’t dying to draft him but in-season acquisition is a bit different particularly if the pricing changes

Matt: We dropping Severino yet?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size, but in 12s and lower, I don’t have an issue. Probably still just benching in 15s bc there isn’t much on the wire, but if you have someone you really like on the wire of a deep lg and Sevvy is your only cut, go for it

Trey: Yelich quietly on 20/40 ish pace and best wRC+ since 2019. Is this real, and does it change perception of him for next couple of years?

Paul Sporer: I buy it. It’s really been health, not skills w/Yelich. Even playing 154 gms last yr, he didn’t look like himself so he seemed to be at less than 100% for most of the season. His excellence this yr has been quiet bc it seems if he’s not an MVP candidate like 2018-19, he’s going to be a bit overlooked which is fine by me if it keeps the price at bay. That said, if he does go 20-40 or close to it, the price will rise next year

shawn: in shallow formats, is fairbanks worth rostering? yeah, he’s the closer but the dude rarely seems to get opportunity (assuming hes healthy)

Paul Sporer: If he stays healthy (which is a challenge), he’ll get plenty of opps. Must roster when healthy and he was activated today

Dynasty: Is EDLC a top 20 player?

Paul Sporer: No, definitely not. Love what he’s doing and it’s been remarkably exciting to watch him storm the league, but no one ascends to Top 20 off of just 112 PA

McBoatface: One more who’s the cut: AL only, with Rodon coming back: Crawford or Canning

Paul Sporer: Really dig both and would probably look to the upcoming schedules to see if there was an edge there. Is there no other cut? They seem too good to cut for an AL Only. Modestttt lean toward Kutter

McBoatface: Hi. Thanks for chatting. Who’s the cut with ERod coming back: ERod, Bradish, or Gavin Williams.

Paul Sporer: Damn this one is even tougher than your other one. Gotta be Williams but man that’s a bummer to cut such a live arm

Dan: Can Jarred Kelenic get back to what he was in April?

Paul Sporer: Not without cutting the Ks. That’s always been my issue w/him and when they were down in April, I was impressed, but wasn’t ready to say it was real until we saw a bigger sample… turns out it wasn’t all that real and his Ks back through the roof

JD: Small sample size aside, is it reasonable to expect Elly to hit .250 with 30/30 potential? He seems to have figured something out on the plate discipline side of things

Paul Sporer: 31% K/6% BB is a really bad plate profile. His 14% BB in AAA was likely due to pitchers just being afraid of him and essentially unintentionally intentionally walking him w/easy pitches to take as opposed to any real skill growth in plate discipline. He’s probably more of a .230s type hitter unless he improves the plate profile, but the pwr & spd will be there and make him an easy must-roster

B’ryce Szmbobski: ELDC is absolutely a top 20 player… to watch!

Paul Sporer: True!

Phil: How do Acuna and JRod compare as dynasty assets in a points context? Especially given the contrasting seasons this year to date

Paul Sporer: Acuña is higher but they are both Top 5 guys

Farhandrew Zaidman: League average triple slash line right now is .248/.320/.410 which is an improvement from years past, but still well below the high .260s/ mid .330s/.420s-.430s we were consistently getting through the early 2000s. You think we’ll ever get back to that offensive environment?

Paul Sporer: Not until something is done to more tangibly curb the leaguewide K%

Farhandrew Zaidman: Also, for shiggles (sh*ts and giggles)

 

The Game Day MLB

@TheGameDayMLB

 

Would you rather:

Be given $1 million upfront
OR
A chance at $10 million if you can get a hit against Clayton Kershaw

5 Jul 2023

Paul Sporer: The million, of course, and anyone who says differently that isn’t currently in the majors or high minors is truly a delusional moron, lol. I saw the football one getting passed around yesterday about like 5 yards on 10 carries and those folks are even more delusional, TBH lol

Paul Sporer: With the All-Star break next wk, we can probably do a longer chat, but I do have a podcast appearance coming up right now that I have to get to so I appreciate y’all coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!

Guest: what normal person is going to hit anywhere close to .100 against Clayton Kershaw lol

Kevin: No way the average Joe is making contact 10% of the time against a MLB pitcher. Easy choice.

Paul Sporer: Yeah there is ZEROOOOO chance, lol. Take the milly!

Paul Sporer: OK take care, y’all!