Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 31st, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hellooo everyone! Thanks for coming out!

Qane: Thinking about a deep league deal for Luis Ortiz or Tyler Phillips, How do you feel about them ROS? Both have been on quite a good stretch. Will they keep their jobs? Both are already close to their career high in IP. Concerns? Any preference? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Higher on Ortiz with a major component being an easier path to IP. Philly isn’t gonna push Phillips unless they just absolutely need for some reason

#1MetsFan: Whats for lunch

Paul Sporer: A sandwich from a place called ThunderCloud Subs here in Austin!

#1MetsFan: Pretty happy with what Stearns did this deadline. What would you grade it?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I really felt the Mets did quite well all things considered. They’re not a frontrunner, but they are in the mix and played it right IMO

Biscuit: who would you prefer going forward…Gausman or Bello

Paul Sporer: I really think it’s Bello. I’m just not confident in Gausman at all these days, at least in terms of him being a frontliner

Guest: Eric Silva the next John Smoltz?

Paul Sporer: LOL… so unreal that not only was Canha traded, but laaaasssttt second AND TO JUSTIN’S TEAM!

Paul Sporer: For those unaware, Justin and I had a huge argument about trading Canha and I was saying it wasn’t really worth it for Detroit to do so bc he’s more of a value add the next 2 mos. to a young team than anything they could get back. Eric Silva was the return which was expectedly light… obviously I can’t prove how valuable Canha would be in the clubhouse for 2 more mos, but I’d have rather they kept him

JG: Its a Holliday !

Paul Sporer: Is he comin back up?

Guest: he is back up, and just salami’ed

Paul Sporer: Let’s gooo!! I figured he was headed back up, but hadn’t seen it confirmed that he was back

New faces in the AL Outfields: Hi! Do you like any of Morel, Vargas, Lane Thomas over JH Malloy? (AL OBP league)

Paul Sporer: While I like Malloy, I think all 3 of those guys are a better bet than JHM rest of season and I like in the order of Morel/Thomas/Vargas

Biscuit: What range does Robbie Ray land in your top 100 these days?

Paul Sporer: Top 40. Still coming off TJ which will breed volatility as we saw in last night’s game

Closing Time: Kenley Jansen or Peter Fairbanks? I know Kenley’s old, but his k-bb is much better this season and the Red Sox are trying to win.

Paul Sporer: They are very close. Yes, Boston is going harder than Tampa Bay in terms of trades, but I don’t think their rest of season projections should be THAT far apart. The Rays traded some big pieces, but they have guys who can very adequately backfill everyone they moved. I still lean Fairbanks, but it’s basically a coinflip

Matt: I need pitching. Any impending prospect call ups that you foresee as a product of the deadline that might be of use?

Paul Sporer: No one that really jumps out to me with the biggest prospect arms who haven’t debuted being in AA like Jackson Jobe, Jacob Misiorowski, Bubba Chandler, Noah Schultz… being in AA doesn’t mean they can’t get the call and skip AAA, but I don’t know how close any of those 4 are rn

Joe: Just a heater for E. Suarez, right?

Paul Sporer: Yes in that he won’t be a 1.000 OPS guy rest of way, but I don’t think he goes back to the sub-.600 OPS guy he was before July’s surge. If you need pop, it’s worth running w/Eugenio Suarez while he’s dialed in

#1MetsFan: Ha! Im in Austin too… Love ThunderCloud

Paul Sporer: It’s so good!

Big Tuna: Do you have any thoughts on Jeffery Springs start last night…are you buying him for the rest of the season or no?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t been able to watch it yet, but the stuff seemed ok. He had a solid rehab and I think there will be good starts, but I’m allllways cautious relying on TJ returners. Streamable, but not yet someone I’d blindly trust

Stupid question: 20 team roto dynasty.  Room for one random flyer.   Stowers or Carlson more likely to pan out with full PT and decent stats?

Paul Sporer: While I am a Carlson mega-fan and will be keeping tabs on him w/TBR, I do think Stowers is the play. Should get full run vR at the very least

Matt: Re Tyler Phillips: Roster Resource has him listed in PHI rotation. Are you expecting Walker and/or Suarez back soonish?

Paul Sporer: Yes, just that he will be replaced as they get healthy so he won’t be totally bankable as a starter

Catcher: 13tm roto std5x5
Have been rotating catcher most of the season. Currently going with Stephenson, would you pivot to either Bailey or Wells?

Paul Sporer: Maaaybe Bailey if you need AVG a little more but otherwise I’m fine sticking w/T Step

Mark Canha: Justin Mason is the superior analyst and mind.

Paul Sporer: Sure Justin, sure.

Matt: Alec Marsh just got optioned to AAA…this deadline has crushed my pitching

Paul Sporer: Yeah that Lorenzen deal was tough for Marsh!

Colton: Should I move on from Darvish for the time being? Could probably get him a bit later if/when he does come back this year but there’s just so much up in the air right now. I should add it’s for good reason, this is not me saying he should be back, he absolutely should not and should take his time dealing with the personal issues he is.

Paul Sporer: Totally feel you and didn’t take as you saying he was bad for being gone. I hope everything goes well for him with his personal stuff, but I did cut in a 15-teamer this weekend and maybe should’ve a week or 2 ago but I reallyyyy needed he spot this wk

Kave Dingman: One time prospect Xavier Edwards is still only 24 and playing well for the Marlins. Are you buying?

Paul Sporer: In the same league I just mentioned w/Darvish, I scooped Edwards a couple wks ago! Leading off & playing well… and while he is riding a big .459 BABIP, I do love the plate skills (14% BB, 17% K) so I don’t think he totally falls apart even when the BABIP regresses

Kate: Does Miguel Vargas do enough to be usable in 15s going forward?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. I’m a long time fan so my bias is toward Vargas, but it’d be wild if CHW didn’t play him damn near everyday

Concerned in Seattle?: Did the Mariners do enough?

Paul Sporer: They did well, the market just didn’t have a ton of hitting available for them. But they added an impact bat with Arozarena, a nice supplemental piece w/Turner, and some bullpen help

Kevin: Is the Bryce Turang ride officially over?

Paul Sporer: Too early to say it’s over. Disastrous month after 3 good ones, but if I’ve got him, he’s likely delivered too many SBs to move on from unless the July struggles carry over

Reid Detmers: Maybe next year?

Paul Sporer: I’m pretty far from quitting him, tbh

Paul Sporer: Especiallyyyyy if he gets moved to a new team

Jordan: What’d you think of the Pirates moves yesterday for de la Cruz and IKF? Where would you rank them among NL wildcard hopefulls (and also, still within striking distance of the division)?

Paul Sporer: Solid if unspectacular. If Jones was healthy and they had Skenes/Jones/Keller as their top 3, I’d have wanted them to go harder but I totally understand why they played it like they did. Fringe WC contenders with a chance at more if Jones comes back and dominates again

KC PAIN: Detroit Flaherty deal seems like another Harris screw up. Thought everyone would overpay and when teams didnt had to scramble for a deal. Im aware of their rankings, but their performance is meh. Also, he aint ever playing C in the majors.  Saw a stat of 80 SB allowed (idk how accurate)

Paul Sporer: I like Liranzo, but I do understand the pushback on how Harris did in this market. No idea if he overplayed his hand and had to scramble, but it does seem like it could’ve been a richer return given some of the other deals we saw

Paul Sporer: 80 SBs this year, 96 last yr… dude gets run on like crazyyyy

Colton: I know you wouldn’t take that Darvish take that way from interacting with you for years at this point (VersaceBreadstic from twitch lol) but some other people may and I always try to be very clear so it’s not misconstrued for them lol, appreciate your insight on it!

Paul Sporer: Ya a lot of freaks treat athletes like property and freak out if they aren’t delivering fantasy numbers to them lol

daro: would you trade Jose Miranda for Max Meyer in a keepers league?

Paul Sporer: Sure, no issues w/that on either side. I prefer Miranda a bit, but works both ways

Skenes: When do I get shut down for the year ?

Paul Sporer: They have said they don’t wanna do hard shutdowns w/him or Jones (and Jones getting hurt kinda served as a shutdown for a bit)

Matt: Re Flaherty: Saw that Cashman had a deal done but pulled back after medical review. Then today I saw Cash say that they “didn’t align on value”. I guess those things aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I saw that, too. Just a bummer that the Tigers didn’t cash in…. it seems like the deadline isn’t Harris’s strong suit so far

Phil: Sorry if this repeats,  got cut off. H2H keeper, drop River Ryan or Birdsong for any of Pepiot, Merrill Kelly 켈리,  Musgrove,  Schmidt coming off IL?

Paul Sporer: Birdsong. Hang onto Ryan until we see how the LAD rotation shakes out. Ryan is super talented and should get some starts the rest of the way

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out. Thank you so much for coming out. Lucas and I are teaming up to analyze the pitching impact from the Deadline and Jeff already has a hitter piece up: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/hitter-fantasy-value-changes-from-trades

Richard: Looking for a bench piece in AL Only with daily lineup changes. Would you drop Ben Rice for Lane Thomas?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I would

Paul Sporer: ok bye for real!