Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 30th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, how’s it goin?

Guest: how excited are you for McGonigle? can he give good fantasy value in 2026?

Paul Sporer: Ridiculously excited! With his bat, he can absolutely be a “hit the ground running” kinda guy who delivers right away

Troy the Tiger: Thoughts on Troy Melton? Is he worth a stash even with two tough starts ahead (PHI, LAA)?

Paul Sporer: I’m not just picking Tigers questions — I promise!!

Paul Sporer: I love Melton. His strikeout stuff gives him a solid margin for error. He got roughed up in his MLB debut a bit, but had the 7 Ks and then was absolutely dominant this last time out v. ARI. He’ll have ups and downs like any rookie, but he’s a pickup everywhere right now to see where this goes

PJ: Kudos to the Twins bullpen for the fake hugging last night. Gotta love the middle finger to all of us haha

Paul Sporer: That was hilarious, especially if it was a purposeful troll

Mike: How worried would you be about the Yankees acquiring a closer that replaces Williams and/or Doval going to a team where he does not close?

Paul Sporer: I think Dev is fine. He’s given up runs in 3 of his L5 outings, but he has a 2.81 ERA/0.73 WHIP in his L20 outings w/28 Ks in 19.7 IP. SF is still in the mix a bit so I’d be surprised if they dealt Doval, but there’s at least some chance it’d be to a spot where he doesn’t close, but I think it’s close to 50-50 that he’s closer-setup if he’s moved

Stephanie: Is Kyle Stowers legit? I was offered Bryan Reynolds and Merrill Kelly for him in dynasty

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a legit power hitter but definitely not a .302 hitter. That’s heavily BABIP driven and while he strikes the ball well enough to run a hot BABIP from time-to-time, I still view him as a true talent .245-.250 kinda hitter w/consistent 30+ HR power.

Guest: Who do you like most as a long-term/keeper 3B of Addison Barger, Maikel Garcia and Royce Lewis?

Paul Sporer: Addison Barger is my new obsession. Oh crap, I said that right in front of Royce Lewis… awwwwkkkkwardd. But yeah, I just love Barger’s power and think he could be a real stud

Insert Witty Name Here: I can’t believe I’m asking this, but is Corbin Carrol a sit over Langford, Simpson, and Arozerena?

Paul Sporer: I mean I guess if you just need Simpson’s SBs very badly… standings matter a lot at this point

Paul Sporer: Gotta map out where you can get points and that will answer a lot of your questions about who to start as we enter the final 2 month run

Murph: Thought on Brandon Woodruff outlook?

Paul Sporer: Generally need more than “thoughts on” as it’s just very specific, but I took this one since Woody is just back and kind of an open slate. He’s looked good and I’m slotting him in everywhere, but I’m very mindful of the fact that it’s not just a blind set it and forget with him as there may well be hiccups

Guest: why is mackenzie gore

Paul Sporer: Lefty Dylan Cease is quite frustrating lol

Angels: So, does this trade kill any hope of Detmers closing?

Paul Sporer: Meaning they go to Garcia if they trade Jansen or that it signifies they’re buying and not trading Jansen at all?

Paul Sporer: Either way, it undercuts Detmers’ chances so the answer is yes lol

Kevin: Does Tanner Scott get his job back when he returns? Dodgers have a lot of options.

Paul Sporer: Not fully, he’ll just rejoin the mix IMO

Mr. Burrito: Even though I’ve been pole-axed by injuries (Aaron Judge, Buxton) this week, I used my last pick-up slot on Sandy Alcantara. My rationale is to gear up for the playoffs. But… was that stupid? Is Alcantara ever again going to be, uh, Alcantara?

Paul Sporer: No, I like the move. Ideally he gets moved and the new team helps keep the good vibes going from the last 2 starts

PJ: wow Jake Eder’s stock has really taken a tumble

Paul Sporer: Injuries mannn

JoeG14: So are the Tigers getting Geno ?

Paul Sporer: I love those moves when a player is traded to the team he’s playing, that’d be fun to just take Geno to Philly, but we haven’t seen any word since the HBP

Look At This Sotograph: ZEBBY IS NOT A THING YET. WHY CAN’T ZEBBY BE A THING YET

Paul Sporer: I am firmly amongst those trying to make Zebulon happen, but I do agree he’s not yet a thing and remains very risky start-to-start. I knew it was a scary one v. Boston, but took the shot w/him

PJ: Id argue it is less than ideal if Sandy is moved to a worse park to a team with a perhaps minimally better offense.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think a park matters that much and while y’all’s offense is playing muuuch better of late as we discussed, he’s still almost assuredly moving to a spot w/a better one wherever goes. And the bullpen support will be exponentially better than anything MIA is offering

Kevin: Are you a believer in Andrew Vaughn? Statcast looks pretty good and there’s the prospect pedigree, but on the other hand we have 4+years worth of league average-ish production. I’m dying for OPS down the stretch. Vaughn or Manzardo any help?

Paul Sporer: I’m such a sucker for Vaughn, so let’s get that bias on the table. It’s important to note that bc I’m more inclined to see the positives. That said, I’m also a mega-sucker for MIL’s development so I get psyched when they pick up someone (see also: Priester, Quinn). Vaughn has disappointed relative to his prosect hype as the #3 overall pick, but he’s still been a firmly league avg player. Getting out of one of the worst situations in the game and joining one of the best could easily be enough to help a league average skillset play more like a 120ish wRC+. He’s white hot right now and will obviously smooth out from this, but I can definitely see a consistent 115-125 type guy, even going forward into 2026.

larry: 3B continues to be a black hole. for h2h redraft standard cats, do you have a preference between Jung, Mayo and Shaw?

Paul Sporer: I prefer an Old, Mustard, Blanket

Paul Sporer: goddd that was such a stupid joke bc I had to pretend Shaw was actually “Shawl” lololol

Paul Sporer: anyyyywaaaayyyy… I like both Jung & Shaw of that trio, I lean Shaw for the pickup. Let’s see if this recent run is more than just a hot streak

Mike: I’m a Royce stan too, but I have to trade him if I am offered a struggling but impact bat (someone like Mookie or similar), right?

Paul Sporer: yeah I think so

ransofast: i can normally uncover some hidden aces in my pre-draft prep and waivers looking at your/enos/pollacks analysis, but man this year has been rough, ober and bryce miller already kicked to the curb, brought in cease, pepiot, and sonny gray right as theyve hit rough patches, its been rough assembling a staff this year!

Paul Sporer: It has been REALLYYYY tough to land consistently usable SPs off the wire in a lot of formats. Obviously the deeper the league, the tougher that is, but it’s been a grind even in medium & shallow formats relative to recent years. I know every year we’re in the midst of an injury wave, we declare it the worst one ever, but maybe this one’s actually been THAT bad and caused shockwaves across the pool that have made streaming a lot tougher. I can’t believe how few viable options are available every week I start my FAAB process. And again, I play 15s, but I’m even talking relative to 15s last yr, 2023, etc…

What’s a Bieber?: Is Shane Bieber worth stashing?

Paul Sporer: If it doesn’t hurt you and cost you a playable roster spot that can help you now. Bc even if he’s dealt, there are no guarantees he’s any good upon return. Still like him more for 26, but in line with the previous question about difficulty finding SP, I can see takin the shot on him just in case he comes off the IL ready to contribute

PJ: KeBryan Hayes to the Reds!!???!?!?!

G: Ke’Bryan Hayes’ in Cincy gonna have enough juice to make him fantasy relevant? His bat will give him every day ABs

Paul Sporer: OMGGGG

Paul Sporer: JUST WHEN I THINK I’M OUT (or whatever that quote is…)

Paul Sporer: As a resident Ke’Breezy fanboy for approx. 37 years, I’m eager to see if the park change alone can bring fantasy relevance. I love the long-term potential on this, too!

Guest: Nolan Schanuel or Ryan McMahon ROS?

Paul Sporer: I have a little excitement for McMahon in Yankee Stadium so while Schanuel has been better than I realized, I still lean Ry Mc

PJ: Odd that a team trades a guy with 5 more years of control in its division. They must really want to be rid of Hayes…or maybe they are just the Pirates.

Paul Sporer: Gotta see the return first

Zebediah Joe: Zebby had a .438 BABIP today. He’ll be fine. You like to see O BBs, 4 Ks.

Paul Sporer: Right, but also a HR and it was a difficult matchup. I wasn’t saying he sucks and won’t get reco’d anymore earlier, just that he’s not bankable. He should probably be curated away from particularly difficult outings like Boston. Still holding him, though

South Sider: Is Eric Lauer really this good? Are we trusting him at Coors and vs. Dodgers next week?

Paul Sporer: THAT’S HIS 2-STEP??!??!

Paul Sporer: LOL jeeeeeez

Paul Sporer: I mean, I have some belief in him as a competent team streamer, but that’s a terrifying 2-step even with the Dodgers being a little cold and the Rockies being the Rockies. I’ll probablyyyy run him in 15s and then consider some 12s while 10s are a sit but hold

Idiotic Failson: Reds fans appear less than enamored with the Hayes trade…

Paul Sporer: I get it if they haven’t been obsessed w/him for several years, but I think the park move alone is worth quite a bit. He’s going from the dead ass last by a miiiiile HR park for righties to the 2nd best — https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=…

Paul Sporer: And I’m not saying this means he’ll hit 30 all of a sudden, but mid-teens pop w/his 15+ SBs plus some AVG upside is very possible

Paddack: Ya gotta love the debut bud

Paul Sporer: That was awesome!!

Hayes Trade: Who loses the playing time in CIN, Lux?

Paul Sporer: I think it’ll be rotating where they’re playing matchups and moving guys all over. Lotta flexibility for Tito to play with

Kevin: Time to worry about Sonny Gray? He’s gotten blasted 3 starts in a row now.

Paul Sporer: Yesterday was OK. Miami has been hitting much better lately so it’s not a rollover matchup and I’m less concerned about him getting touched a bit by them. ARI/SDP were proper shellackings. I don’t see any velo fall-off and it’s just 1 BB to 15 Ks in the 3 outings combined. Feels like a blip fueled by a lotta HRs as opposed to the wheels coming off. Ebbs & flows of a season, gotta ride the waves

Beano: Best Guess on L Robert’s landing place?  Personally, I think if the Mets gave L Acuna and a decent pitching prospect, they’d get him…

Paul Sporer: NYM would be interesting. I’ll pick SDP!

Paul Sporer: I’ll go out with prediction on Robert. I hope we get a busy evening tonight followed by tons of action tomorrow! I’ll be doing my annual Deadline show with Nick Pollack on playback.tv/pitcherlist so check us out there tomorrow afternoon. Take care, y’all!

David: Savant gives Hayes 59 career HRs in Cincy compared to his actual total of 39

Paul Sporer: Boom… had to drop that last one in. OK bye for real now!