Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 2nd, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all thanks for coming out!!

John: Hi Paul.  What do you think of trading Naylor and Lawler for Roman Anthony in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind that if you’re hot on Anthony. There’s a world where he and Lawlar are really close, but I can see believing Anthony has the edge enough to throw in Naylor

Liam: Lost Pena (for who knows how long with the Astros track record) and traded my Glasnow for Swanson. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I totally dig that. Fills an immediate need, more than anything Glasnow was doing right now and Swanson is v solid & part of a great lineup

eric: are you holding onto Ryne Nelson after this favorable stretch of the schedule?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size, but I think he’s probably at least a team streamer everywhere

JoeG14: Looking for a stream for tomorrow: you like Horton to bounce back home vs Guardians?

Paul Sporer: I can co-sign going for him, yeah

James: Who do you prefer long term, Chourio or J Rod?

Paul Sporer: They are sooooo close in talent that I end up using softer factors to split them like team context which I think leans toward Chourio in Milwaukee

Jim Leyland Palmer: Paul what would you see as realistic trade targets the Tigers should go for later this month? Maybe an all-in approach isn’t necessary, but we should be aggressive imo

Paul Sporer: It is tough to answer right now bc you don’t know how the roster will change in the interim, but they should definitely fortify the team. There is no team that can’t use any upgrades and they don’t need to trade the farm to get it done, either. Could even be more platoon-type guys than everyday players to go w/lefties like McKinstry/Sweeney on the infield. With Carp hitting the IL, a big bat would make some sense, though I could see them going cheaper on something like that w/like a Jorge Soler-type (although maybe not such a DH-only player since they like flexibility across the roster). It also depends where Carp is after the break, he could be back and all good.

Spencer: Rebuilding for next year: Would you rather be keeping $5 Pablo Lopez or $5 Shane Baz?

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna lean Baz at equal costs. Lopez is about to be 30 and has a history of shoulder issues. Baz has his own dodgy health history, too, but 4 yrs younger so I just think it comes down to age b/w these two

MS: Bo Bichette has a 49.2% HardHit%, a career low K%, and pretty significant deltas in AVG, SLG, and wOBA when compared to their “expected”. Reasonable to think good things are coming?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think so and we started to see it in May, but then back down in June. Still had a decent 17 RBIs bc Toronto was on fire, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Bo’s slash rise hit a nice uptick

Gabbo: Which two of Hays, Wilyer, Harris, Adolis ROA and does keeper appeal in a keep-5 (no penalty) influence your choice? Im contending in h2h 12tm 5×5

Paul Sporer: No concerns for keeper appeal when competing, I’m focused entirely on trying to win at this juncture. This is a nice group… thought I’d snap pick Hays/Wilyer, but Adolis put himself back in the mix in June. Harris has been brutal, but his SBs might still be helpful. That said, he’s first out for me. In the end, I stick w/my initial duo of Hays/Wilyer, but I would be OK swapping Adolis for Wilyer if you felt his chip-in SBs had more value than Wilyer’s AVG edge (especially since that edge isn’t guaranteed if Adolis stays hot)

Jim Leyland Palmer: If Eury Perez has a poor start tomorrow, drop in 10tm?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m good w/that

Josh: What kind of impact do Chase DeLauter and CJ Kayfus make for Cleveland this year? They need offense and these 2 guys should be up soon.

Paul Sporer: DeLauter could hit the ground running as a real stud. He has incredible power but also makes consistent contact so maybe won’t suffer the heavy K% issues we see a lot of other power prospects deal with upon arrival. Kayfus, meanwhile, is more of that stereotypical 3-true outcomes all-or-nothing power guy. Sometimes these guys dial in right away, but more typically they have swing-and-miss issues before finding their power stroke. At any rate, both would be intriguing in a lot of formats while DeLauter definitely interests me more

Giving in on Gavin: Gavin Williams. I know it was the Cubs and he was throwing 97, but what are we doing? Can he turn it around like Hunter Brown last year, or is it time to cut bait?

Paul Sporer: Can he? Absolutely. Will he? Likely not. That said, I don’t know how “far” away he is from fixing the control so to speak. Is it an overhaul or is it a tweak? He will remain a team streamer-type who I expect to recommend in his easier spots, but he’s been sliding down my big board (I know say I it every week, but I am still going to have a rankings update very soon — I was at my sister’s for a long weekend watching their puppy and it’s really hard to put in hours on the computer w/no workstation… just hunched over at the kitchen table lol… plus, he needed lotssss of attention).

But yeah, he just hasn’t shown the refined command and control to maximize his quality stuff so he doesn’t have to be held in 10s and can likely be cut in plenty of 12s, too. I’m personally still holding in 15s, but wouldn’t even rule out a cut there in the right sitch

SJ: In a league of just six keepers — last spot is between Jacob Wilson윌슨, Matt Olson, Jacob deGrom. Am I crazy for wanting to go with Wilson after just three months of games?

Paul Sporer: Not at all. The improved power has been an absolute revelation for Wilson to go with immaculate contact skills. deGrom isn’t getting any younger and Olson is a power 1B who is also aging a bit (though still v good)

Liam: Any interest in Fuentes today? Didn’t watch last start but kinda just seemed like running into Mets and their best

Paul Sporer: The Angels are sneaky scary w/their HR power, so I wasn’t all that interested. I know he was nasty in those 9 AAA starts so he’s on the radar, but more of a stash than use until I see something https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-july-2nd-2025/

Guest: As someone who picked up Walter, it really doesn’t look like anyone sustains success anymore with a 4-seam as slow as his (91.7), even lefties. How do you rate him vis a vis, say, Roupp or Patrick

Paul Sporer: I will answer that in a moment… Charlotte is crying to go out

Paul Sporer: He definitely lives on control. It’s a thin margin to live on and it will be important for him to keep his K% around 23-25% (or better) and/or bring down that HR rate (1.5) to maintain success. That said, there are examples of successful arms living in that velo range with Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Springs from the left side and Bassitt, Singer, Kelly, and Sonny Gray from the right side. Bailey Ober and of course the ever-present control king himself, Kyl Hendricks, definitely show the downside of that thin margin. Walter almost certainly won’t become a set-it and forget-it at any point, but I don’t mind running him as a team streamer for the foreseeable future. He will be a 1- or 2-x for tomorrow’s start at COL and likely the same for v. CLE next week

Astros Lefties: How good are you at telling Walters and Gordon apart?

Paul Sporer: Admittedly not good! LOL. Both soft-tossing southpaws who are living on control and are scary to trust start-to-start despite impressive baseline K-BB rates

Home Cooking: Is flaherty only startable at home?  The splits are starting to stand out.

Jack Droppington: If flaherty flames out today at the nats, is he a drop?  His recent 4ish starts have been poor

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think he’s gotta take advantage of a start like today’s to earn some confidence from us fantasy folks. He’s a team streamer right now who I still think is too good to cut in 15s and even a lot of 12s, but another dud today would lower his bar

Guest: jake mangum continues to hit when given a chance — contact is light, but k% and speed is elite. You buying into a breakout?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m a fan… scooped him as a SPD/AVG asset across multiple leagues

Matt: Hey Paul I don’t play fantasy but am fantasy-curious: how do you project Daniel Palencia’s rank amongst relievers for the 2nd half of the season?

Paul Sporer: It’s a lock that CHC will improve their bullpen at the deadline, the question is whether or not they aim to find someone better than Palencia and then slot him back into a setup role or just get talented arms and see where Palencia takes ’em while making sure they have they options in case he falls off. It’s hard to know for sure, but I think it has to cap where you rank him for the 2H outlook somewhere in the 7-10 range. On pure talent, he’s been amazing though, posting a 1.26 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 19 Ks in 14.3 IP since logging his first save on May 21st

TD: Either Jacob Lopez or New and Shiny Edwin Cabrera must rosters in 12s?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Lopez stan and I’ve always been a bit off the Cabrera train so I lean that. I don’t think either are muuust rosters, but it’s that thing where both likely belong on a roster in a 12-teamer but not necessarily your roster.

Yordan: Odds that Yordan returns to action at all in 2025?

Paul Sporer: After the Tucker saga last yr and a setback for Yordan, I’m saying low on that one

Adenolith: It looks real – MLB’s listing Schwelly went to the IL with a fractured right elbow.

Brad: RIP Schwellenbach

Colton: Just saw that Schwellenbach is going on IL with an elbow fracture, that stings. Looking for a replacement currently, seeing Baz available. You like him or Ryne Nelson more until Schwelly is back?

JoeG14: Spencer Schwellenbach placed on 15-day IL with fractured right elbow.

markjd: Schwellenbach has a fractured elbow

Paul Sporer: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Paul Sporer: I will have to console Justin quite a bit on tomorrow’s pod

Paul Sporer: @Colton — matchup the schedules for Baz/Ryne and go that way bc on talent they’re very close to me

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. I’m headed to the movies tonight so I gotta get the SP Chart done early so I’m not up all night. Take care, talk to y’all next week!