Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 24th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! How’s it goin?

Brad: Luis Garcia Jr or Angel Martinez for the next 3 years. Who ya got?

Paul Sporer: Garcia Jr. for me! But Angel Martinez has enough intrigue that it’s at least close

Adenolith: What’s up with Crochet? Are they just going to give him 4 innings at a time the rest of the year? This seems impossible to plan around.

Paul Sporer: 74 pitches through 4 which doesn’t mean he couldn’t go 5, but he wasn’t at his most efficient so they decided to pull the plug. Save some juice for a potential trading team, too, without just flat out sitting him. I actually don’t mind this handling from the CHW standpoint

anthony: Is Nolan Jones worth a stash if an IL slot is available? does he return to any semblance of last year?

Paul Sporer: Yes worth a stash; as well as things went for him last year, they’ve gone equally as bad this year so I don’t mind taking a shot for free

Luke S: Who would have thought a Mark Canha convo could get so spicy!

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL, right? That’s why I love Justin, though, bc we can get at each other like that with ZERO animus. Love that guy… Justin and Canha, tbh!

BlueJayMatt: Should we be starting Kershaw this week or is he a still I’ll candidate?

Paul Sporer: I like Nick’s Still IL in this case. Plus we know LAD won’t be shy about making it a shorter outing if need be

Roster Crunch: In a 10-team QS league, is Zac Eflin droppable for hitting? Options include Wallner, Winker, Toglia, Fitzgerald

Paul Sporer: Not insane, but I’d really try to hold Eflin. I don’t think he’s TOO far off last yr, tbh, so I could see a nice 2H run. Any other potential cuts?

anthony: Would you take brandon lowe or toglia for the rest of the year for power only?

Paul Sporer: Healthy Lowe for sure. Shift to Toglia off the wire if Lowe gets nicked up again

Corner Life: Hi! Can you pick favorite/least favorite among these corner bats? OBP league: Justin Turner, JH Malloy, Andrew Vaughn, Loperfido?

Feeling Cornered: Hi! Left off a name in my corner bat question: Favorite/Least Favorite, OBP league: Justin Turner, JH Malloy, Schneeman, Andrew Vaughn, Loperfido?

Paul Sporer: fave – JHM. If Turner was hitting for some AVG like normal, I’d probably lean a little closer to him, but I’ll take the pure pop of JHM and hope he continues to pull up his AVG as he has this month. Least fave is Loperfido but mostly due to PT over skill. The deadline has a chance to crowd him out even more

JG: Added River Ryan the other day as a stream, keep ( gets Astros next, if starts ) or drop to continue to stream ? – Which I would like . 12T deep roto

Paul Sporer: I like Ryan a good bit overall, but I’m still passing here bc it’s at HOU this wknd and then a 5-day week next week meaning he could be skipped altogether. Keep him on the watchlist to pick up again later, though

Paul Sporer: One caveat would be if he’s announced for next wk at OAK and they go Knack/Glas/Kersh/Stone/Ryan… so just stay tuned for news on Sunday/Monday after his at HOU start. I’d still cut now to stream someone else this wk, but just stay tight on his news in case he gets the OAK start and we immediately scoop him back up

WW: Rank the following ROS: Wallner, Yepez, Angel Martinez, Young, Jesus Sanchez

Paul Sporer: Is Young the Nats Jacob Young? Speed is so its own thing that if you need it, he could be as high as 1 here. If needs are neutral or it’s points, he goes to last place: Wallner/Yepez/Martinez/Sanchez/Young

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: Alec Burleson will outscore Corbin Carroll in standard points leagues ROS. Fight me!

Paul Sporer: Sounds like you’re already fighting yourself and/or ghosts! Bc I’m not sure that’s a super spicy take… big Burly rules!

Extra Crispy: Criswell looked solid in Colorado. Any preference between him and Heaney, or just play matchups?

Paul Sporer: I was impressed with Criswell even acknowledging that Colorado isn’t a great team… 7 scoreless in Coors is always awesome! Unless you really need Heaney’s K, I’m going Criswell here

Scuffy Mcgee: Is Jurickson Profar going to continue to be one of the best hitters in baseball ROS

Paul Sporer: No, that’s very unlikely, butttt that doesn’t mean I think he falls off a cliff, either. June-July have been a cut below Apr-May in terms of slash line, but he’s still popping 3-4 HR/month so if the power sticks he should remain a strong player in all formats as long as he doesn’t keep hitting .220 as he has in July (.196 BABIP after 3 mos. over .300 is kind of expected.. just how BABIP fluctuates over a 6 month period where the months are just arbitrary endpoints)

Murray: Who is the biggest name pitcher and batter you think will get moved at the deadline?

Paul Sporer: Garrett Crochet

logan Webb: Actually I’m the real problem. Time to cut?

Paul Sporer: Cut??? Who you gettin that’s better?

Paul Sporer: 10 teamers probably have some heat on the wire, but 12s and 15s have been fricken barren! and I’m not saying Webb’s 1.27 WHIP isn’t a problem, but I’m more inclined to bench. Not sure I even cut in a 10

Feeling Cornered: Thanks! I’m with you re JHM excitement. The K’s are still worrisome, but he feels like he’s figuring things out.

Paul Sporer: Watching my Tigers daily, I’ve been seeing his PAs get better and better with the results following suit. JHM and Keith emerging of late has dulled the sting of Tork’s flameout

BIG OOF: Is Lawrence Butler a star now? Please excuse me as I cry for cutting a struggling $1 Butler in June… in my AL-only league.

Paul Sporer: A star? No. And don’t beat yourself too hard on that even in a AL Only. He was at .179/.260/.269 thru June. That’s just horrendous. And yes, the underlying power metrics were great and showed that he was smacking the absolute piss outta the ball on the rare occasions he made contact (31% K rate). So it’s one of those where I understand both those who stayed the course in hopes the results would come and those who cut bc they had to get more production in the lineup spot.

After a .253 BABIP thru June, he has a .476 in July as his power is finally netting results. Obv a .476 won’t hold, but he doesn’t have to go back to .273 either. Biggest key for me and whether or not he can really push toward a star level player is if the 19% K rate from July can become the new norm. Or at least something around that. I’d take anything 25% and lower w/his metrics.

Jim Smath: Is Tucker coming back this year?

Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe? https://x.com/BLima790/status/1816123539126378815/quotes

Guest: If Bazzana tears it up in the minors for August, is he playing for the big league team in Sept?  A roughly league average wRC for Cleveland isn’t going to cut it in the playoffs

Paul Sporer: If he goes full Langford, maybe, but where does he play? Are they moving him to the OF?

Datt Mamon: If selling high on Lugo, would Westburg be good 1-1 value? (I understand you don’t know the details of the league, though ace-level SPs are its gold.)

Paul Sporer: Absent further detail, I have zero issues w/that!

Fant’sy Feast: RE: Crochet question at the top: what’s your impression of what normally happens when a pitcher that’s way over historic max IP gets traded to a contender. Should I hold out any hope of QS ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised if any team traded for him to baby him. Now that might still mean 5 IPs a bunch, but even knowing he isn’t a rental, I just think any contender paying the premium is going to use him

Big Mac: How do you value Jarred Kelenic? Is he a strong hold if Friedl on the wire? 16 team h2h

Paul Sporer: Not a stroooong hold over Friedl. I’d slightly favor Friedl between the 2

JG: Junior Caminero a good stash for the next week ?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, see where the deadline dust settles and hope he gets the call

Buff: What does the Dodgers’ rotation look like a year from now?

Paul Sporer: I barely know what it’ll look like on August 1st, let alone next yr

Cocomontes: Are you out on Sean Murphy for this year? D’Arnaud seems to be hitting better and I wonder if I’m better off with the PT security of a Korey Lee/Wells type

Paul Sporer: I think I’d want better than Lee/Wells to move on from Murphy. I think 1-C shallower formats or the only place I’m thinking of moving on from Murphy

BIG OOF: Do you think Jesus Sanchez will be the next young star breakout? The EVs are sexy and it seems he’s improving his launch angle issues

Paul Sporer: I think a case can be made that there’s another step for him. The pop is there, he can even run a bit, but I’d love to see some improvement in his plate skills a decent bit

Houcked: I’m a liiiiiitle worried about Houck lately. Obviously Coors is Coors and the all-star game is Ohtani, but he’s also got a lot of innings on him. Time to move on?

Paul Sporer: Move on how? Cut? Absolutely not. Trade? Mayhaps! Also re: Coors, it was legitimately just the 1-bad inning and he reeled off 3 solid ones after. IP are piling up so I understand exploring trade options, but otherwise we’re riding it out

Hank Scorpio: Sorry, I know I sent a novel in my first question. To reword it, for 2025 in 12tm 6×6 roto $275: Would you rather have J. Wood ($10) or my current Teoscar ($16), Bibee ($24), Taj ($6), F. Peralta ($20), or Kutter ($17)

Paul Sporer: i think it’s Wood v. Taj for me. and while I am a Taj stan, I think I gotta go the hitter even at the higher price there

Drops: Are we done w/ J Hicks? Drop for Criswell or River?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m fine moving on, I’d take Criswell rn just bc Ryan’s spot is uncertain.

CM: For Crochet, wouldn’t there maybe be more risk of injury if they were to change him into a reliever and change his routine?

Paul Sporer: No, there’s no real way to mitigate injury risk… other than just not pitching, I guess. And with as hard as he throws, he’s even riskier than a standard SP, but that doesn’t mean they should put him in bubble wrap… just gotta kinda see where it goes

tumtum: Victor Robles looking fancy last couple weeks. How many more SB ROS do you think he can bring?

anthony: is it too early to tell if robles is actually figured something out?

Paul Sporer: It is too early to tell if it’s just a hot streak or something clicking. I love Robles, but it’s probably the former. I took a shot and do think we can get 15-20 SBs rest of way as long as he doesn’t just completely flop at the dish

Paul Sporer: HE IS STILL ONLY 27 YEARS OLD SOMEHOW

Alex Cobb: What should be done with me?

Paul Sporer: I’d scoop Cobb in 12s and deeper in anticipation of his return which is hopefully next week

LCA: Thanks for the chats Paul, and love your mid-season review pods lately. In a 10t keeper, I’m unlikely to keep both Strider (end of time) and Crochet (general open questions) and could use some pitching help for this year’s playoffs. Wheeler and Clase seem a right match for those two, or am I giving up too much?

Paul Sporer: No those targets make sense. You’re getting top of the scale for premium distressed arms — Strider w/the injury and Crochet maybe isn’t so much distressed right now but rather uncertain for the future as you say

Kenshin Kawakami: You buying any type of second half bounce back for Matt Olson? Can acquire for cheap but the inputs are rough

Paul Sporer: Yeah, he’s a total “hang with ’em” guy where I’m comfortable betting on the track record and just seeing it through with Matt Olson. His power metrics aren’t perfectly in line w/last yr, but not so much that he can’t click in and go crazy in the 2H. If it ends up being a modest high-20s HR type season, I’ll eat it, but I still think 30 is very much on the table

Mary Kate Olsen: MARY. KATE. OLSEN.

Paul Sporer: REESE. OLSON.

Adenolith: J.D. Martinez’s statcast numbers still look good, but the results aren’t really there. In a 2-UTIL league are you still holding over dart tosses like Burger, Fitzgerald, Robles, Wenceel?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m holding JD. He’s another guy I could see just exploding the rest of the way. He hasn’t even been bad so it’s not like Olson on that front, but he can definitely be better than the already-good 127 wRC+ we’ve seen

JG: Jesus Sanchez or Heston KJerstad ? daily moves 12T Roto ?

Paul Sporer: Kjerstad at least through the break so we can see if he gets moved and starts playing daily… or someone else is moved to clear space for him. Either way, def Kjerstad right now

Ryne Nelson: Mentioned in the chart that he’s been turning things around. Is there anything in his profile to suggest he can continue this recent success?

Paul Sporer: A rarity for today’s game, he’s leaning more on his fastball, up 11% in usage over these last 4 when he’s looked great: 2.22 ERA/0.86 WHIP/19% K-BB including a 24% K rate which is 7 pts north of his season mark. Also not a bunch of rollover lineups: CHC, TOR, SDP, LAD … CHC/TOR underperforming, but it’s not OAK/MIA level stuff that he was just beating up on

KC PAIN: Please tell me the Orioles move some bats. I think it was their GM talking up Stowers the other day, as a MLB talent either on their roster or someone elses.  Guy is 26!  Give him some reps on someone’s team plz!  Same for guys like Kjerstad, Norby, Mayo, etc.

Paul Sporer: They gotta. If they had enough pitching, I’d say keep the depth and just be stacked af, but they have an abundance of bats that they can move for a big arm or a couple solid arms w/out depleting the system. They’re in an amazing position

Eminor3rd: Jesse Winker has been a huge asset for me since Trout disappeared, but he’s been losing PT to James Wood/Harold Ramirez. Any hope for him to get full-time PT back if he and/or Lane Thomas are moved, or do you see a situation where a buying team will also platoon?

Paul Sporer: If he’s traded, it’s almost CERTAINLYYY to platoon.

Sallty: As a Tigers fan, would you accept a package of Basallo and Povich for Skubal or too light?

Paul Sporer: Too light. 2 of Basallo/Holliday/Kjerstad/Cowser to pick up the phone

JG: Any chance Adolis can be a little productive the ros ?

Paul Sporer: Told y’all he wasn’t good! Only took 3 amazing seasons to come true, lololol

Paul Sporer: Nah, he’s struggling, but it’s in his range of outcomes meaning I don’t think he’s too far off his normal self so he could click in for sure

Sallty: If it was guaranteed that River Ryan stays in the rotation ROS, who would you prefer btw him and Luis Ortiz?

Paul Sporer: Gotta be Ryan for team context if IP potential is equal

McBoatface: Appreciate your thoughts on a Tough roster call when Lewis returns this week. Who’s the cut? Nootbar, Keith, Gimenez, Horwitz, Hoskins. We cound both BA and OBP, as well as traditional categories.

Paul Sporer: Frick on a stick that is hard!!

Paul Sporer: (what if I just ended the chat and didn’t answer it? lol)

Paul Sporer: I think it’s gotta be Gimenez unless you desperately need the SBs

SONA: vabich!

SONA: Just kidding thanks so much Paul!

Peter: You stashing McLain in a 12tm cat playoff league?

Paul Sporer: If I’ve got the spot, I’m definitely down

Yankee E: Stashing the Martian with the mess of the Yankees lineup even with Stanton back soon?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, too talented not to see how it plays out w/Jasson Dominguez

Guest: is the Rice train over? even in certain 12t keeper formats

Paul Sporer: No no no it’s just getting going! I love Ben Rice!

Paul Sporer: I know he’s platooning, but he’s C-eligible without having to catch and the power has been impressive. The .206 BABIP is wild and I don’t think it’ll hold. Stay the course, he’s leading off vR for NYY!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out. Thank you so much for coming through. Back next week and we can break down the deadline to see if we can find some gems after the dust settles!