Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 23rd, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, how’s it going?

Matt: 12 tm roto dynasty you dropping Zebby for Melton?

Paul Sporer: No, I’d stick w/Zebby for now

RAGBRAI: Anything splashy from the Brewers next week or just some tinkering around the edges?

Paul Sporer: Probablyyyy tinkering. They have guys working their way back from injuries that they no doubt view as pseudo-acquisitions so I doubt they go for a blockbuster

steve: what in the actual is wrong with teoscar

Paul Sporer: Nothing major, IMO. This is in his range of outcomes, just on the lower end w/his power down a bit and his lowest BABIP since 2016. I don’t think there’s anything actionable, we just ride w/Teo IMO

Guest: Jacob Wilson윌슨 has cooled off after a hot start. What do you expect from him the rest of the season, and would you prefer Wilson or Gleyber at MI?

Paul Sporer: Feels like a standard cold streak for Wilson w/his BABIP in the tank (.186 in the last month). Gotta let team needs decide b/w these 2 with Wilson still being the guy if you need AVG and Gleyber if you want more a bit of everything without a super carrying category

bob: j.sanchez or i.happ ros, standings agnostic

Paul Sporer: Slight Happ lean

Guest: I can’t believe I’m asking this, but in shallow leagues are we benching Mookie?

Paul Sporer: If you have a viable replacement, I think it’s OK to sit him on the pine. I can’t see it in the deeper lgs as I doubt most teams have anyone worth playing over him, but shallow leaguers definitely have bench guys who are no doubt playing better than Betts right now. Don’t cut him, but some sits have merit

Insert Witty Name Here: How concerned should I be with a ROS rotation of Kirby, Hunter Brown, and Yamamoto with Painter stashed? Their ROS IP projections will fill my IP requirement, but their latest games have me worried.

Paul Sporer: It’s hard not to always be worried about the status of your pitching bc it can ALWAYSSSS flip on a dime, but you have 3 legit aces and one of the brightest prospects in baseball due up any moment, there are manyyy worse spots to be in here

Nate: If you had the option of selling skubal for devers in a deep keeper, would you do it? I still have strider as a pitcher keep, and could use devers at first or third, and am usually pro sell high on pitching. But man

Paul Sporer: I totally hear you on the sell high pitching, but I don’t think Devers is the move. Just not sure who we’re getting in SFG the next few years. I could see it w/a Fenway Devers in the right sitch, but I’d hold Skubal here

Luke: Does Dane Dunning have any value in an NL-Only League? Do you think he joins the rotation soon in ATL?

Paul Sporer: I could see him finding some value in the rotation. It might take some time to stretch out entirely but a dollar spec in deeeeep lgs could be worthwhile if you need some depth

Zaddy Guerrero: who do you think are the top 3 most likely current closers to get traded? Having a hard time assessing the buy/sell mentality of the fringey teams (STL, LAA, CLE, MIN) that aren’t that far off a wild card spot…

Paul Sporer: That’s the problem, it’s REALLYYYY hard to pin those teams down as buy-sell right now so you can spec and hope to get lucky, but this next week of games matters a lot for these teams. Bednar gotta be gone in PIT, Raisel in ATL should be gone, and then maybe Bautista in BAL and Finnegan in WAS

Nate: Think moniak is for real now?

Paul Sporer: Real to the degree we’ve seen — power-speed capable bat in Coors who is best started at home and/or vR. Never want to start him vL and raaarely wanna start on the road unless it’s some juicy righties

Yankee Hotel Foxstott: Volpe and Stott are killing my lineup night in and night out. Is there any reason for optimism with either or should I cut ties?

Paul Sporer: Their overall outlook and core skills leave reason for hope in the long-term, but this yr might not really turn around much. As far as cutting ties, it reallyyy depends who you’re getting. I think both remain holds in 15s bc there simply isn’t anything better out there, but 10s and 12s likely have some waiver heat worth considering

Look At This Sotograph: Can Royce Lewis finally start hitting again? Need him as a Paredes replacement. Also, as a BLowe replacement, do you prefer Correa or Jorge Polanco?

Paul Sporer: If he’s healthy, he can. I still fully believe in healthy Royce, it’s just that we rarely get that version. I lean Polanco b/w those 2 Lowe replacements

Pete: What do you think the odds are that E. Clase will be flipped at the deadline? Please don’t say 50/50…ha!

Paul Sporer: No, it’s probably closer to 25-30%. It’d make some sense if they can get a grip for him, but they still have next yr & 2 team options on an elite 27 yr old closer so I don’t think they will aggressively look to trade him

tbg: gavin sheets underperforming expected stats but actual state are lacking. holding on?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think this is everything, but I wonder how much his lack of speed contributes as he turns would-be 2Bs into 1Bs or even some 1Bs into outs (though that’s more a late-career Miggy/Albert thing). I don’t know how much this pertains to Sheets specifically this yr, but I know in the past I’ve seen sluggers like this have great underlying power metrics that don’t quite have the results they “deserve”. I think he’s in a standard regression lull that I’m willing to hold through for another couple weeks

Chucky: Pursuant to an earlier question about Mookie, why the tip toeing around benching Mookie? Discounting his 13 at bats in March, the only other month where Mookie’s OPS was above .700 was May. Mookie should’ve been on the bench several weeks ago, for those who had the patience. He’s borderline unrosterable at the moment. The 0 fers have permeated his game.

Paul Sporer: He had a .778 OPS thru early-June and has a dreadful .528 since then. Maybe I stick with veterans too long, but I’m not moving off him based on 150 PA. He’s not unrosterable anywhere IMO. Benchable, sure for shallow lgs, but no shot I’m cutting him. He’s still the 100th hitter on the player rater this yr.

Slim: What do you think going on with Ozuna? He’s been sitting a ton

Paul Sporer: Trying to keep him healthy for a trade?

MS: Snell looks close to returning….where would he land in the new SP rankings?

Paul Sporer: Too hard to say right now with so few IP. Depends how much LAD is letting him pitch

Matt: Ottoneu, after trying to sift through 1.5 week scoring period and vagaries in who’s starting when, I have 4 starts left. Start 4: Walter @ARZ, Giolito @PHI, Williams @KC, M Kelly @PIT, C Holmes @SF, Matthews WSH

Paul Sporer: I think Gavin, Merrill, Gio, and Zebby jump out to me. ARI is still very scary to me for Walter (I don’t love taking Gio to PHI, but he’s better than Walter so easier to take on a difficult matchup) and while Holmes in SFG isn’t too bad a matchup, he’s been a five-and-dive low-K guy lately

morganconrad: After Woodruff’s great Monday start, how would you bump him up on your ratings?  Is Barger a fair trade offer?  Is Soderstrom too much to offer?

Paul Sporer: Monday doesn’t really bump him, I already ranked him as a near-must start. I think Barger or Soderstrom would be viable trades, I’d prefer to give Barger if I had both of them and was chasing Woodruff

Nick: Thanks for chatting.  What are you doing with Luzardo ROS?  Just look for favorable matchups?  Or should he be cut in a 12-team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: I’m not cutting anywhere, just tooo much talent. Hopefully he can handle a tough BOS team tonight, but he’s no worse than a team streamer for me. Tough part is timing his good/bad starts leaving me want to start him pretty much all the time

Matt: Over last 28 days, Trout is hitting .267/.424/.520. Are we back, baby! Or are we sooo back?

Paul Sporer: Trout’s still a G when healthy

MS: ROS: Arozarena, Nimmo, Frelick?

Paul Sporer: I know Frelick is due back Friday, but I gotta go with the order you’ve listed. Maybe if you need SBs more than anything, I could leapfrog Frelick over Nimmo. Randy the first #1 for me, though

Adam: Hi Paul. Any worry about potential innings limits for guys like DeGrom and Ray? Or are teams there less concerned with veterans like them?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think teams are less concerned w/guys like that so I’d be surprised if either faced a hard limit

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out! Next week’s chat is the day before the deadline so hopefullyyyyy we have some tangible trade stuff to discuss whether it’s already-completed trades or obvious buyers-sellers to review. Have a good one, y’all!