Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 12th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!!

guest: 18 teamer, ROS Matz or Blackburn?

Paul Sporer: Intrigued enough by Blackburn’s K improvements to go with him

Jason: Good afternoon! I’m in a 10 team league and I’m wondering if you think I might be able to trade Verlander for either Christian Walker or George Springer. Would that be fair value?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I can get behind either of those

Sean: Think Julio improves at all 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think he’s better than this… still pacing 24HR/41SB for fantasy, though, so hardly killing anyone’s team

Greg: Is Bibee a Top 30 pitcher next year?

Paul Sporer: He can be, definitely have to see how this yr finishes

Greg: CJ Abrams about to explode in the 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: He appears to be pretty BABIP-dependent right now so I’d like to see him find a groove in the .300s instead of yo-yoing from sub-.300 to >.400

Katman: Sorry. Best bet for 2024?    Lawler, Luciano, Amador, Chourios

Paul Sporer: Lean toward Chourio right now

Sean: Keeper league. Picking up Edwin diaz and putting in an IL spot make sense? Could keep him for 10 dollars ..

Paul Sporer: As long as you have the IL spots and it’s doesn’t cause you to make a move that hurts this year’s chances

MiamiWeiss21: Should I be looking to bail on a Detmers/JonGray in a 10tm mixed H2H for a Civale or Bradish? Worried first 2 may not be quite right heading into 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: I love Detmers so I’m holding him but Bradish is above Gray in my forthcoming SP ranking update

I Used to be Mel Clark: In a 16 team, keep forever, no cost, do you prefer Bibee or Hunter Brown?

Paul Sporer: Lean toward Brown (big fan of both)

Jarrett: Thoughts on Grayson Rodriguez in the second half

Paul Sporer: Still an auto pickup upon return where available bc he has the skills to be a game changer

Masa: 10 team points, who would you cut out of Erod, Berrios, Glasnow or Bibee?

Paul Sporer: Tough cut but gotta be Bibee, I guess

Rickey: Do you think CJ Cron is worth pursuing for the 2H? Worried about both health and possible trade out of Coors, but could use some help at CI. Is he worth the gamble?

Paul Sporer: Valid concerns but as a pickup, he’s still worth it bc the other side is a healthy summer in Coors where he rakes. Might have to move on if he’s traded into some part time role in a pitcher’s park, too, but I like him to do well especially if he stays

Lance Lynn: Thoughts on him ROS? The numbers appear to indicate he’s a candidate for major positive regression?

Paul Sporer: I can’t quit him. It’s so frustrating bc it’s appears to be a curable HR problem bc we still see the glints of greatness within a lot of these bad starts. I kinda hope he gets traded to a contender and just shoves in the second half

C.M.: How long will that elbow effect Bryce Harper’s power.

Paul Sporer: Probably the year? It’s great that he’s back and he’s doing enough beyond the power to be an easy value add for Philly but those who thought they were getting BRYCE HARPER this year have realized he’s not yet that guy again.

Paul Sporer: Could be in the second half and it’s worth holding to see if he is bc you’re getting a .290 AVG, but there may come a time where he’s a questionable hold in 10 teamers in need of power down the stretch so don’t let the name value fool you if the power doesn’t come back and you’re in that situation but that’s more of a late-August concern

I Used to be Mel Clark: Do you think we will see Andrew Painter this year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so

Matt: Chat post usually comes up earlier and when I didn’t see it I went to your Twitter….are you off Twitter now?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been bad about tweeting much of anything lately but I’m still there and will likely get on Threads, too. I like many don’t love the state of Twitter rn but there is still fun, engaging baseball talk to be had on there and still a spot for news and update stuff such as announcing your weekly chat! 😂

Dan: I’ve been stashing CES for awhile now should I hold or do you think he gets called up too late to be fantasy relevant this season? Not many bench spots and getting harder to stash.

Paul Sporer: Fully a team needs decision. If he becomes too hard to hold, don’t be afraid to move on. He needs an injury at this point which can of course happen at anyyyy moment but if it’s actively hurting your team to use that spot, I’d find a better spec in the majors

Guillotine: Do you have any Guillotine lgs going in NFBC? Im doing it first time this year and I find myself obsessing over that league over some of my other bigger money leagues.

Paul Sporer: No I missed the boat this year but won’t miss it next, it seems like such a fun format to play!

Rick: Even though Varsho has been disappointing, I know as a catcher he is still one of the more productive ones. Since he will lose catcher eligibility at the end of this year, next year as an outfielder only in a dynasty league, he’s pretty much replacement value, right? Or am I missing something?  Thanks

Paul Sporer: If he is just this guy in the 2H, then he is definitely a replacement type in 3 OF leagues and close to it in 12tm 5-OFers. That said, I can see him improving on the .214 AVG in the 2H. His plate skills are in line with his career and his hard hit rate is up. But even if he only hits .240 rest of way, that does make him a good bit more viable w/20-20 production. I wonder how the market will adjust his OF-only value, though a lot will depend on how he finishes. There’s a decent chance he rakes, ends up .245/25/25 and getting talked up as a stud OF

Tim: Tyler Stephenson’s hard hit and ISO are down; any sense that he’ll get them back in line and live up to the preseason hype?

Paul Sporer: I’m a little disappointed as he’s someone I’m a big fan of this year, but I still have optimism for the rest of the year. Hard hit rate is up 6 pts, Barrel Rate up a little (marginal, but it’s not down)… the launch angle is a down a bit and could be a big reason why the better ball striking isn’t bringing HRs. I still want hitters in that park & lineup, though, so I’m reluctant to cut him in really any spots at this juncture. He’s the 12th ranked C so I don’t think he has to be cut in 10-team 1 C. The Reds open with 9 at home and he’s done some of his best work lately (.256/.335/.406, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 28 R in last 203 PA).

Ezra: I’m not good at making sense of the Statcast numbers… From what I understand, earlier in the season, Baty’s traditional stat line didn’t look good, but the stratcast numbers suggested future improvement. Is that still the case? Is there still reason to be optimistic?

Paul Sporer: That’s exactly right. Through May, he was toting a 52% Hard Hit rate, 9% Barrel suggesting he was hitting the ball hard enough to net better results. Instead of the results catching up to the metrics, he’s gone the other way. His HH is 41% and Barrel 3% in his last 99 PA. I still hold out plenty of long term hope, but he is cuttable in a lot of formats right now. The tough part is that he’s the kind of guy who can flick a switch and just go off right after you cut him, but that’s just the variability of our game. As the 48th ranked 3B, you can do better with the roster spot, but if it’s a spot you don’t need right now to succeed and Baty’s your guy, then feel free to hold a bit longer in case the switch flicks

Spencer Steer: Am I a sell-high in dynasty leagues or is most of what I’m doing sustainable? Thx Paul!

Paul Sporer: I’m a believer, dude just hits. No single thing is excellent trait in his profile, but together it all works, especially in that park. If you want to cash him in as a plus asset in a dynasty league, that’s totally fine, but I don’t think he’s a hot potato you have to get out from under.

kcc26: 12 team H2H: muncy/verlander or Alonso?

Paul Sporer: Alonso. Looks like a solid deal on both sides, but this is a classic consolidation of talent in a 12

ha-seong him: hey paul, who do you like more between Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 and Andres Gimenez in roto? I was originally leaning Kim since he’s been hitting leadoff, but Gimenez finally seems to be waking up

Paul Sporer: Cleveland’s rising! Kim has closed the gap, but it’s still Gimenez

Sean: Jonathan Aranda worth stashing?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size

Matt: Re my question about your Twitter…you’re not coming up in search was why I asked. Can’t seem to locate your account

Paul Sporer: Oh word? It’s still @sporer

Mike: Which Detmers will we see in the 2nd half, the one from the beginning of the season and recent Dodgers game or the one who has been hot the last 45 days?

Paul Sporer: I lean toward the good, I’m a big fan of him

Braves Fan: RoS Yelich or Schwarber?

Paul Sporer: Yelich unless you need power

John: Bailey ober stuff plus is bad but his results have been great. How do you account for it?

Paul Sporer: More to pitching than Stuff+ (not to denigrate it, but there’s always outliers)

Erik: Vlad for Arraez fair, particularly if the team acquiring Vlad needs power and has excess BA.

Paul Sporer: I prefer Vlad for sure bc there’s a world where can match Arraez in AVG while hitting for power if he gets hot. Hold if you have Vlad

Future Me: Which of these guys could be top 40 pitchers next year: Woo, Abbott, Grayson, Bradish, Eflin and ober?

Paul Sporer: All of em! This is a group I really like so it’s hard to even pick favorites for 2024 with any certainty but I’m heavy on the Bradish train, love what TB has gotten out of Eflin and believe in it, and Grayson could be a star quickly, perhaps as early as the 2H.

Tyler O’Neill: Any interest in me ROS?

Paul Sporer: Definitely depends for who & league size but I’m not super keen on him

Chip: Cristopher Sanchez or Clarke Schmidt for my last SP in a 12-team H2H league?

Paul Sporer: Big fan of Cristopher Sánchez! Schmidt is rolling of late with a 2.81 ERA/1.17 WHIP/14% K-BB over his last 48 IP so I’d lean toward schedule to split them. Schmidt opens w/COL and lives in the AL East (I know there are fewer division games, but still more than out of it), Sanchez has to avoid ATL but the other division rivals aren’t inherently frightening. Lean Sanchez if you it can only be one

Chess Club Participant: How badly will Votto fall back to earth? Highest swinging strike rate for his career, but small sample too. Stick with it, or try to sell high?

Paul Sporer: If you can sell high, I’m definitely OK with that, but I doubt he’ll bring a huge return in most situations. It’s a clear hot streak to be at this level but he is hitting a lot like that 2021 run so given that I doubt there will be big returns, I’m inclined to ride it out and hope for something looking like that ’21 2H surge of 25 HR and 1.057 OPS!

A’s Pitchers: A couple weeks ago you felt Sears, Blackburn, Hogan Harris all had roles on an AL only team. Do you still feel that way? I’m holding Sears, the other 2 are on the wire.

Paul Sporer: My Harris stance has softened so I’m not holding there with viable options on the wire. Still good with Blackburn in AL Only, though.

Colton: Why does someone keep adding peanuts to every comment? It’s a bit annoying to see.

Paul Sporer: You can turn it off by clicking the little face above the chat box:

Bob: Ben Lively 라이블리 looks pretty decent from my vantage point, nearly a K per inning; ERA under 4 and WHIP at 1.24; 4 wins but only 1 QS. Do you think he’s a just streamer or a rosterable SP?

Paul Sporer: Team streamer. No need to start every time out but I’m with you on seeing some viability that is worth holding on reserves when you don’t start

HappyFunBall: Have Arraez, love Arraez, am super happy that I drafted him this year instead of having to trade for him to earn 2nd half AVG like in past seasons.

If offered VladJr straight up, I would put a work call on hold to go hit accept before the other owner had a chance to rethink his foolishness

Paul Sporer: lolololol

Severino: Is Severino a buy low (just FAAB) in AL Only?

Paul Sporer: I want to believe, but it’s so hard. The health history paired with the struggles make him a tough hold but I realize the allure in an AL Only where the wires are always scant. If it’s truly a stash where you can afford the roster spot, take the spec, but be ready to move on if and when that spot becomes a need

Ben: Who will I want more next year — CES, Lawlar, or Keith?

Paul Sporer: Lawlar is the most dynamic as a power-speed infielder so I’d put him 1. CES is a power bat in a great park and what looks like will be a great lineup. I like Keith, I’m excited about Keith as a Tigers fan, but he’s 3rd here. I think he can be Spencer Steerian, but in a much worse park & lineup.

Re: Ober: Ober’s stuff+ isn’t great, but his pitching+ on the same scale is above average

Re: Ober: (Pitching+ takes longer to become accurate, but can still be useful)

Paul Sporer: Yeah these are fantastic metrics but they aren’t one shot answers to who’s best. Both worth using in your mix of who to roster and start as make our weekly or daily decisions

Pirates: Who you taking first in a dynasty FYPD?

Paul Sporer: I looove Skenes and think he can be a quick riser, but I still think I lean Crews. The pitching risk always looms over these decisions for me and unless the pitcher has a major edge over the top hitter, I’m going hitter so it’s Crews for me

Elly: Is there a scenario where you would trade Elly in a dynasty right now?

Paul Sporer: Contending team that can get like 3 major contributors for the rest of this year plus some lower tier prospect. I’m all about going for titles and will Dombrowski it a bit at times to get it done.

Bob: When are your updated SP rankings coming out?

Paul Sporer: This week!

Bob: Mike Ford sneaky homer helper for second half in AL only?  I don’t really see anyone else standing in his way of ab’s.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d be surprised if he maintained a 30% HR/FB rate, but he doesn’t need a 40+ HR pace to retain AL Only viability, so I’m definitely down to ride this out with Michael Harrison Ford!

Kevin: Anything to suggest that Jesus Sanchez can start hitting the ball in the air more? Seems like he could be a great source of power if so.

Paul Sporer: The 53% GB rate is new so just getting back toward his 47% career mark coming into this year doesn’t seem out of the question. He’s still getting to a good bit of power even w/this many groundballs so you’re right that he could be a true monster with a bit more lift in his profile!

Roger Kahn: Need to drop one of Bradish,Elfin,T Wells, Paxson or Elder Thanks

Paul Sporer: Daaamn that’s a tough drop. I think you gotta map out the schedules on that one.

Guest: Gavin Williams or Andrew Abbott in 10 team points? Rostering both but need some outfield help on the wire. Dealing with McClanhan and Greene on the IL

Paul Sporer: Abbott is absolutely rolling of late and while I believe there will be more volatility there, he’s my choice between these two. His swing-and-miss stuff offers more of a game-changing profile, especially in shallower leagues where you’re trying to spike that upside because there’s always options on the wire

In Contention: What’s the best way to make a move in BA?

Paul Sporer: Addressing multiple spots and patience

Paul Sporer: Just getting Luis Arraez likely won’t turn things around that much unless you’re near the bottom of a jam packed standings situation. And the patience comes in not really worry about the day-to-day volatility. You still want to check at the end of the week and see if you’re moving forward, but you have to give replacements some time. It can be really counterproductive to chase hot streaks to fix AVG because you can keep catching the comedown and end up hurting your AVG more

equist: I’ve replaced McClanahan with K. Crawford. Should I swing with him or would you get C. Sanchez instead?

Paul Sporer: Ooh, a couple of faves for me. Slight lean for Sanchez there. Both have big time upside in the 2H

Salty: Would you target Kershaw in a win-now mode, or does the shoulder scare you off?  Morton would be a possible alternative.

Paul Sporer: I come into the season expecting an IL stint or 2 from Kershaw so I’m not scared off by one right ahead of the All Star break. I’d definitely try to sneak a discount if I’m going for it!

Kevin: Patrick Bailey good enough to be relevant in a 9-team 1-C league in the 2H? 500 SLG so far looks nice.

Paul Sporer: I love what he’s doing, I’m OK rolling with him in that format. There’ll always be someone to turn to if he flames out

The Rick: Stash Holliday in a keeper? Too early?

Paul Sporer: Probably too early, yeah. Would 100% depend on league size and keeper count, but in leagues where he’s available, it likely makes sense

Kyle: Did you disable the emoji reactions on purpose?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, lol… not sure what that person’s purpose was spamming it

Craig: I was offered Vlad for Bryce Miller, Kyle Wright, Urquidy, and Santander in a dynasty league. Should I take it

Paul Sporer: Yes, I would

Future Teller: Edouard Julien will end the year playing everyday?  platooning?  back in minors?

Paul Sporer: Probably platooning, though I’m not sure I agree w/Minnesota on that

Phillips/Puk: Which reliever is best bet for 2024?

Paul Sporer: Puk is the better bet to be a full on closer IMO

Paul Sporer: Alright y’all I gotta get back to work on the SP rankings. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!