Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 10th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! Thanks for coming out. Sorry for no SP Chart this morning, we lost internet across Texas for about 9 hours yesterday due to the storm

Josh: Cut Bobby Miller?

Paul Sporer: No, I can’t do that yet. I’m certainly OK benching in shallower formats, but I just don’t see enough to run away from him off 29 IP given where expectations were coming into the year and where his raw stuff still is even during these struggles

Paul Sporer: AS Break seems perfectly timed for him

Peter: Is Aaron Abbott a great sell high?  I need an OF so would like some comps, Riley Greene maybe?

Paul Sporer: I’d take Riley Greene for Andrew Abbott for sure. I’m definitely open to selling him and would even take lighter than Greene if that doesn’t get done (as it might not in a lot of cases)

Marco: Comfort level in Brandon Pfaadt this week (ATL) and going forward?

Paul Sporer: Pretty firm. He is kinda always on the wire bc HRs are his issue so when he’s off, it’s almost always a dud, but ATL’s offense just isn’t scaring us right now and so I’m down to start young arms I have excitement for like Pfaadt

Matt: Looking for pitching and have extra MI. Thinking of trying to get Senga for Maikel Garcia & Smith-Shawver. Only hesitation is that Garcia is my backup 3B with Machado as a starter. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I like going for Senga when he’s still a bit up in the air and this seems fair. If something happens to Machado surely you can scoop someone off the wire so you have a body, but this is a very fair offer. Stings a bit trading Garcia, but Senga could be a stud if he’s up to 100% quickly upon his return

MS: Weekly Pablo pulse check…..gotta roll with him today, right??

Paul Sporer: Gottaaaaaaaaa. Not too upset about HOU getting someone, even my studs. They’re a good club. The duds are ugly, but he usually bounces back w/3-4 gems so Pablo Lopez remains firmly in the rotation

Chris: I traded Caminero and Taj for Teoscar and Trea Turner 12tm 4×4 I do alright?

Paul Sporer: For sure, traded future for now! Taj is also contributing now, but you bought 2 strong track records of success on 2 of the best teams in baseball for 2 good prospects. Very fair!

Rickey: Is Clay Holmes in danger of losing the closer job? Would you drop him for Kirby Yates?

Paul Sporer: 8 ER over his last 7 app might have them sweating a bit, but I doubt they move off him as he still has 8 Ks/0 BB. A .429 BABIP is killing him and while he is no doubt playing a role, it’s unlikely to hold at that level the way he’s pitching

Fant’sy Feast: Hey Paul! Thanks as always for your mid-week wisdom. I have Campusano fairly cheap in a dynasty. It’s an ottoneu so I have 2 C slots, but only 162 gms for C. I have Raleigh who will hopefully cover the rest of the season’s needed production. Is Campusano a cut at this point? Not much to be gained by cutting but a little cap relief. Not much to be lost unless he has a big enough 2H to become a keeper

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m OK w/that. I was excited for him coming into the year and he could have a nice summer, but w/Raleigh in tow, I’m OK moving on from Campy right now

Andrew: Rese Hinds…are your thoughts the same as everyone else?  Took many K’s will catch up with him.  I just added him for Noel and gonna ride the streak while I can since desperate

Paul Sporer: Correct and I have no problem trying to catch a heater, just don’t eat 12 0-for-4 when he goes cold. If you see the multi-K game start stacking up 2-3 in a row or 3 of 4, it’s time to jump

Ben: Hey Paul, what do you think about Pepiot vs. Gore rest of season? 10 team

Paul Sporer: I had Pepiot a bit higher in the last ranking, but even just 10 days later, I’m close to a coin flip on ’em. Gore is probably a better bet for volume, especially given what we’ve seen from Pepiot’s workload lately

Alex: Would you cut Noelvi Marte for someone like Matt Wallner or Spencer Horwitz?

Paul Sporer: Maybe if I don’t need speed at all, but I’m not giving up on Marte after just 50 PA in most cases

Kate: Is a Michael Toglia breakout being masked by some bad luck / sequencing?  Monster barrel rate and improved plate discipline / contact metrics, but horrid BABIP and worse BB and K rates than I would expect based on the underlying plate discipline numbers.

Paul Sporer: It’s been tough! He absolutely tattooing the ball but it’s not falling much. The 31% K rate doesn’t help, but he definitely deserves better. I was talking with my buddy Gregg this week about potential FAAB cuts and I mentioned his Michael Toglia before he enlightened me and decided to stick w/him for another week. He went bomb pop last night and if he closes the first half nicely, you might wanna scoop for 6 at Coors outta the break

Guest: Hope you are okay in Texas.  Do you think Kikuchi has figured something out?  On the broadcast last night the Jays announcers said his fastball velo is up considerably since he stopped throwing so much between starts.

Paul Sporer: We’ve been spared any bad weather thankfully, but the storm did cause a massive Spectrum Time Warner outage yesterday that basically blacked us out of the internet. Couldn’t even use cell outside of texts that would sporadically go through. Definitely not the end of the world, the power outages in Houston are much more severe and on-going, so hopefully everyone out there is staying safe

Broken Bat: Wouldn’t bothRobert and Crochet potentially be almost twice as valuable if the Sox sit on both of them? Space Crochet out so he finishes a full season with 170 innings, same with Robert, play him and don’t run him much. Interested trading partners now would seemingly pay lower based upon speculation they are bandaids with a glove, Wait until off season and the haul might be double right now. You?

Paul Sporer: I think you can make the case for both. I totally get what you’re saying about waiting until the offseason, but the other side is that teams know what they need and will be more aggressive at the deadline w/the playoffs and a title in sight. It all just depends on your trade partner, tbh. You can find eager ones in the offseason and at the deadline. They should be able to get a mint for either Robert or Crochet as neither is a rental so I have no problem w/them dealing both now

MS: Thoughts on Seager’s trade value in a shallow 8 team roto league?

Paul Sporer: Perhaps dented a bit, but I’m not selling low or anything. His metrics are fine and he still has a very good 17 HRs in 79 gms. Witt has 15 in 92. Just saying that for context, not to dog Witt or suggest Seager is better. If you’re trading for him, I’d see if the seller is motivated and will take a bit less, but I’d also pay full market if they held firm on his value

Carl: Who does Senga replace in Mets rotation?

Paul Sporer: Not to cop out, but those questions usually answer themselves w/someone else getting hurt by the time the guy in question returns. But if it has to be someone, it’ll likely be Scott. He isn’t the worst talent of the 5, but he is the youngest and he isn’t markedly better than the guys getting paid so they’ll likely stick w/those vets and not tax Scott, knowing he’ll be the replacement when the next injury crops up anyway

WH: Is sending Reynaldo for Christian Yelich in a 10 team points league decent value?

Paul Sporer: It is, yes

Guest: Thanks for chatting.  You like Brooks Lee or Bo Bichette ROS in a head-to-head, standard scoring league?

Paul Sporer: I like Lee and I’m a little cool on Bichette generally, but in a 1v1 I gotta go Bo. Lee should be a solid AVG asset, but it might be a bit empty, while Bichette’s AVG might continue to lag (though should be better than .222) in exchange for HR/SB

Vince: 12 team – start Baz this week against NYY? They’re looking soft but I’m still scared.

Paul Sporer: I’m scared too and despite NYY playing worse of late, I’m out for Baz v. them

AG: Would you trade Colt Keith for someone like Waldron? or aim higher? Need SP help and hes been on my bench despite his hot streak.

Paul Sporer: I think that seems like a fair range of arm

Kate: Angel Martinez has quickly and quietly seemed to carve out an everyday role in Cleveland.  At a minimum, it seems like there is some good plate discipline here for OBP leagues.  Is there enough impact in the power / speed categories to make him interesting going forward in a 15?

Paul Sporer: He’s about a 15/15 HR/SB guy in his MiLB career so if the rate stats remain an asset, I see 15-team viability. He’s batting 2nd everyday on one of the best teams in baseball so I don’t mind rostering him in 15s rn and maybe even being a Band-Aid for some 12s

Kate: Are JT Realmuto’s days as an SB asset finished?  Or does he go back to running now that the knee is fixed (maybe not this year, but next)?

Paul Sporer: At age-33, my expectations were lighter coming into the year and remain so halfway through. A small handful perhaps, but I’m not sure it returns as a meaningful part of his game as he enters his mid-30s

chris: just picked up miranda in a 12tm h2h. would you cut bregman based on that? i have 2 util slots that are both full so its tough carrying both

Paul Sporer: Huge fan of both players so it’s a tough choice. Breg’s been on a heater since late-May when his OPS dipped below .600 — .896 OPS, 7 HR, 23 RBI in 170 PA (30-98 full season pace). Miranda of course has been arguably the hottest hitter in baseball lately… boy, I’m really agonizing on this one. Are you sure you have to cut one?

Dave: Hold on Buehler in case he comes back dialed in for the stretch run? Could snag Schwellenbach/stream for now.

Paul Sporer: Let’s hold Buehler through the break and see where we are after that

Guest: Rodon whyyy

Paul Sporer: Horrendous command w/8 HRs and 10 BB in his last 23 IP yielding a 10.57 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Unfortunately w/Carlos Rodon’s history, that does lead us to start wondering about his health. Curious to see if he starts this weekend or just packs it in for the break.

Trade proposal: Redraft league. One guy in our league has wayyyy too many guys on the real life IL and not enough fantasy IL spots to keep them. Unfortunately for him, they are all pretty good players so I get why he isn’t dropping some guys. From my end, I have 6 OF (no eligibility elsewhere) on my roster and only 5 spots I can play them every day (3 OF, 2 UT). Was thinking about offering my James Wood for his Trout. A lot of question marks on both sides of that deal but wanted to see what you thought of a deal like that.

Paul Sporer: Definitely a good play there. Makes sense on both ends. I like that you’ve though about how it can help the trade partner and not just yourself. Too many folks come into trade talks focused on the player they want, not even understanding if it makes sense for the trade partner to move them! So yeah this well thought out and definitely a worthy offer

chris: are you a james wood fan in redraft leagues? blew my entire FAAB on him and wondering if i already have buyers remorse

Paul Sporer: Always scary to go big bc there’s so much expectation, but I’m a huge of his overall. Rookies are always a gamble, but there is HUGE upside here so I understand those who went big for him. I’m FAAB-poor so I wasn’t a legit player in the sweepstakes this past weekend

Mart Mart: Give me permission to drop Gleyber plz. 16 team h2h OPS league.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s unthinkable, but I am curious who you’re picking up. Is it some Lenyn Sosa type beat? I think I’d just ride w/Gleybs at that point

Street Lou: Hey Paul, seems like Torkelson is being written off by many. He’s still very young. Am I wrong to still like his chances of being a good player?

Paul Sporer: Not wrong at all. Reminder that I am a Tigers fan, so I’m definitely in the bag for Tork, but I also don’t think it’s blind homerism to recognize that there is still plenty of upside in his bat. It hasn’t been the perfect trajectory for the former #1 overall pick, but he has shown legit success in MLB and can do so again

Kate: I never thought I’d say this, but is Harrison Bader like kinda good now?  Been running him out there in a 15 recently and I don’t hate the production I’m getting.

Paul Sporer: You’re talking to one of Bader’s biggest fans, so I don’t appreciate that backhanded compliment for him!!! I’ve always felt like he has 15 HR/30 SB type talent but just never stays healthy enough to flex it. Easily a 15 team start with some 12 team viability, too

Kate: What happened to the chats with Eric this year?  Thought I remembered you saying you guys were going to do that again, but I’m guessing other projects got in the way?

Paul Sporer: Yes, just wasn’t able to make the time. Felt terrible about it… love chatting w/Eric and I just learn SO much about prospects

Biscuit: Should we really expect Imanaga to bounce back? He’s typically pitched 150-160 innings a year in Japan, with longer rest between, and is on the small side for a starter.

Paul Sporer: If bounce back means gets back under 3.00 ERA then absolutely not. I think he has definitely pitched his best ball of the year, the question will be how good he can be the rest of this year and it’ll come down to the HRs. I think his projections are still a good guide — 3.75ish ERA/1.20ish WHIP which is about what Luis Castillo has been so far this year and it’s slotted him as the 51st SP on the Player Rater

Biscuit: Is Correa a significant upgrade over someone like Caballero ROS?

Paul Sporer: Yes unless you need Caballero’s speed

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: Remember when the White Sox had peak Giolito, Cease, and Rodon on the same roster as Louis Robert, Moncada, and Eloy Jimenez? And they decided Tony Larusa was the man to try and steer that ship?

Paul Sporer: I do indeed

Fan Page: Is Castillo a significant upgrade over Valdez ROS at the cost of Bichette and possibly remembering how to hit

Paul Sporer: No, love both SPs and I’m not out on Framberto

Halp!: Start or Sit today? Sevi, Cris Sanchez and Canning. 16-team 5×5 with QS’s instead of W’s

Paul Sporer: Start Sevvy/Sanchez; Can Canning — I keeeep falling for him, but I’m weening myself off Canning lol

Guest: Paul, why do the Tigers keep putting Maeda out there? Manning, Madden, SOMEONE at AAA  can at the minimum do the same job or better.

Paul Sporer: Yeah these last 2 duds are pretty brutal. He was at least showing some flashes through June, though the ugly starts would always erase 2-3 good ones. But not even getting through 4 let alone 5 is brutal and like I mentioned w/Rodon earlier, you always start thinking health once Maeda is bumpy… especially at his age

Eminor3rd: Gleyber droppable in 12-team at this point?

Paul Sporer: 12 is much easier, yes. The 16-team Q earlier was a bit tougher bc I don’t know if you’re getting anything worthwhile off the wire

Matt: Just swapped Crochet and Mason Miller to receive George Kirby for the second half. Smart move? (For reference…12-team roto, currently in first by 15 points and +90 Ks/IP with second-best ratios and middling QS)

Paul Sporer: I like that. Consolidation of talent, especially w/any potential limits either Crochet or Miller might face. Solid move!

Beano: If pirates get T Ward, does Suwinski get benched?

Paul Sporer: Is that a rumor? That’d be interesting. Not sure it would merk Suwinski, though. He’s playing much better of late and plays CF which helps

Willie: Thoughts on SF All-Star Heliot Ramos? Are we seeing true talent?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’ve been really enjoying Ramos. I was surprised Justin wasn’t a bigger fan as a Giants guy. Ramos was a big time prospect and while that doesn’t guarantee anything, there was some prospect hype fatigue that has left this breakthrough underrated.

Bucco: Desperate for saves, would you continue to roster Chapman? Even when Bednar is back?

Paul Sporer: Yeah maybe we for 10-14 days in case he gets a straggler save or 3 while Bednar works back

Euros: any Euros love? England or Netherlands?

Paul Sporer: Been enjoying the game so far… I lean Netherlands! Knotted at 1, we’ll see how it finishes

Insert Witty Name Here: Which two MLB players would you like to see play a match at Wimbledon?

Paul Sporer: Steven Kwan v. Luis Arraez — just a 2 hour volley between em, the tennis equivalent of hitting singles

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll! SP Chart back tonight as long as the internet doesn’t die again! Taking my niece out for lunch next Wednesday so no chat for the All-Star break. Have a good one, everybody!