Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 5th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming out!

Brandon Wood: Greetings Mr. Spider,

Paul Sporer: Good day!

Justin Mason: NERD!!!

Paul Sporer: Rude!

Brandon Wood: Do you expect Jordan Walker to rise up boards like Julio Rodriguez did last season?

Paul Sporer: If StL confirms an Opening Day spot, yes

L’Chaim: How do you rate the odds of Tovar being COLs opening day SS?

Paul Sporer: Around 20% or so? His appearing in the majors to end the year helps a bit, but he would essentially be skipping AAA and I don’t trust Colorado’s prospect mgmt so I’d be careful drafting him TOO much

Kate: How do you think saves shake out in the Twins pen between Lopez and Duran (at least to start the season)?

Paul Sporer: I think Lopez got bit by an ugly small sample in his MIN work as opposed to his BAL work being a fluke so he opens the year in the role & Duran remains the fireman. If Lopez does regress hard or flop, they will go to Duran

Mitchell: Sneaky value with Turnbull this season?

Paul Sporer: Yes, got an extended TJ recovery and should be ready to go with no real restrictions this season

Justin: How do you feel about the STL bullpen this year?

Paul Sporer: If Helsley is healthy, it’s his job. Nice to have GG as a backup

Kate: Assuming no injuries, what do you think the Astros do with Hunter Brown to start the year?  Bullpen or AAA?

Paul Sporer: If they don’t give Brown multi-IP relief outings in the majors, they should probably send him to AAA to keep him stretched out. I love Brown and I’m drafting him even without a locked role because he’s 1st man up once they need someone

Kate: Do you think the Davies signing affects the security of rotation spots for the D-Backs young arms?  Or is he just depth / emergency starter?

Paul Sporer: It probably puts Jameson/Nelson in a battle for now

Chip: Is Vidal Brujan worth rostering this year?

Paul Sporer: In a deep enough league, I’m not fully quitting him, but I have lowered my outlook on him quite a bit

Justin Mason: Why are pancakes better than waffles?

Paul Sporer: They aren’t. Pancakes are lazy waffles

Mitchell: Will Crochet throw enough innings to provide fantasy value?

Paul Sporer: Certainly could have value in a deep enough league where a multi-IP relief flamethrower has juice but I’m not drafting him anywhere right now

AD: If Jordan Walker does make the Opening Day roster, where do you slot him relative to other rookie talents like Caroll and Gunnar (and Jung, Casas, Alvarez to a lesser extent)?

Paul Sporer: I think he’d be in the Gunnar range for sure (90s ADP) with a locked spot

Nate: Curious of what you expect out of Anthony Rizzo  this year? Given his low spot in your 1b rankings

Paul Sporer: He’s 1 spot lower than his Steamer ranking and a couple spots below ADP at 1B (14th, which matches where he finished last yr). It’s just that the position has some depth to it. I don’t think the shift rule change immediately boosts him back up to .284 like he hit in 2014-19 so I don’t really see myself as down on him

Justin Mason: youre a lazy waffle

Paul Sporer: Fired.

Justin Mason: Over/Under 69 wins for the Tigers?

Paul Sporer: Can definitely see over, but the hitting needs to greatly improve. It starts with guys like Greene & Tork developing

Gr: Please ban Justin from this chat. He can ask you questions any time.

Paul Sporer: Ok!

Kate: Any chance Laureano gets moved before the season?  Or do we need to hope for a deadline move to get him a park / lineup upgrade?

Paul Sporer: Definitely a chance. I think we see a couple big trades in January. Not sure what they are, but the FA pool is dry in terms of game-changing talent so if a team wants to improve, trade is the best route & Laureano still has some appeal

Jack: Lazy Waffle is a solid “nickname seeks player” candidate.

Paul Sporer: Great call!

L’Chaim: Who is up first? Brennen Davis or Colton Cowser?

Paul Sporer: Gonna come down to which team has the opening sooner given how similar they are: big swing & miss 22 yr olds who didn’t impress in their AAA debuts. Think the path is a little easier in Chicago for Davis, but I wouldn’t place a big bet on one over the other at this juncture

Galen: Thoughts on CJ Abrams for 2023? Still young but struggled in 2022. Enough power to keep from getting the bat knocked out of his hands?

Paul Sporer: I doubt it re: the power, but that doesn’t mean I’m out on him. So young like you said, also skipped AAA so he was learning on the job. I’m not quitting him just yet. Can still be a solid AVG hitter w/plenty of SBs

Guest: Just got Salvy Perez at pick 75 in a 15-team draft and hold 50-round… 2 picks after MJ Melendez at 73.  Am I missing something?  Why’s Salvy going after MJ?

Paul Sporer: Think that’s just an overdraft on Melendez, his DC ADP is 102 to Sal’s 68

Seltz: Is the fear of the Camden wall souring everyone too much on Ryan Mountcastle? It feels like top 15 league wide barrel metrics should eventually play regardless of the ballpark

Paul Sporer: It went from a 131 to 77 Park Factor for righties. His HR total halved at home and I’m not sure where the recovery come from given those new dimensions

Kyle: Over/Under 0.5 Justin league wins in fantasy leagues in 2023?

Paul Sporer: Over. If you play 82 leagues, gotta cop at least 1 win!

Chip: Do you think Larnach will ever learn how to hit a breaking ball?

Paul Sporer: He did hit the slider pretty well this year, but breakers as a whole have been his issue, you’re right. Hitting lefties will be a bigger hurdle (though the two are related as I’m sure lefty breakers are particularly troublesome for him). There’s still a tinge of upside w/the 26 year old

James: Do you actually construct your own projections or is it just a rankings list?

Paul Sporer: Doing my own projections this year

Justin: Alexis Diaz – over/under 25 saves?  Seems legit.

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Diaz fan and have drafted him multiple times already, but I lean under on that figure just bc I’m not sure Cincy will give him the opps. Although if my 3 faves from the Reds – Stephenson, Fraley, and Myers – step up & stay healthy, the offense can definitely jump up and give their pitching some support. At any rate, I’m planning for a low-20s output

Brandon Wood: Higher OPS this season, Wil Myers or Hunter Renfroe?

Paul Sporer: Big on the Wil Myers train! Need some health, but Cincy is Coors Jr.!

Chip: Is Hunter Greene going to take the next step in fantasy relevance this year?

Paul Sporer: Reds run of questions!!

Paul Sporer: Looove how Greene finished the yr, but his command issues aren’t just completely fixed after 6 wonderful starts so I expect more volatility. And of course while loving the park for the likes of Myers and Fraley, it gives me some pause on Greene & Lodolo, both of whom I really like

Fake Cronenworth: Do you like Andres Gimenez to repeat (or improve on!) his 2022 performance? Why or why not? Will he or Amed Rosario be more fantasy relevant this year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see him improving the 140 wRC+, but he can sustain a lot of the gains. A volume boost on the R/RBI will offset some of the pullback in his AVG. I’ve tentatively got him for .282/18 HR/19 SB/77 R/74 RBI

Jose: Is Riley Greene worth a roster spot in a 10 team dynasty?  I could control him for the next 5 years but the league is pretty shallow; maybe the top 120 non catching hitters are relevant.

Paul Sporer: It’s close in a dynasty, but I am a bit worried about his fantasy juice. AVG has to drive his profile as I don’t think he’s a great bet for 20 HR or SB in the short-term. He can be your prospect investment if you fully believe, but he’s not a prospect I’m bending over backwards for in fantasy

NOT Justin Mason: Any reason to gamble on Anthony Rendon this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m a sucker and I can’t pass up the discount at pick 250. Not going to draft him on a bunch of rosters, but I’ll have a share or two across my leagues (though I continue to shave leagues so I’ll be under 10 this yr… so probably just 1 Rendon share)

Brandon Wood: Do you think Varsho retains catcher eligibility for 2024 season?

Paul Sporer: I do not

Craig: Who do you like better for 2023 — Ahmed Rosario or India?

Paul Sporer: I do see a rebound for India (if healthy, of course), but I lean Rosario over him because of the bankable speed

Anonymous: Wander Franco at ADP80: post-hype sleeper! (Only half-joking)

Paul Sporer: I was hoping for a bigger discount, but I totally understand why it’s not there

Guest: Do you believe Vinny P has a fairly long leash, would he be guaranteed the first 2-3 months with what he showed last season

Paul Sporer: Yeah unless he just melts down, he should get a real shot at holding the job

Paul: I know you love Pasquantino, but isn’t the context, bad team and bad park, likely to drag down his R and RBI totals relative to other 1B ranked near him?

Paul Sporer: It certainly can, though we’ve seen some big R/RBI spikes recently from the likes of Perez, Merrifield, and Soler. It’s a fair point, though and given that the 3 guys ahead of him – Melendez/Witt/Perez – are all risks for sub-.300 OBPS, I’ll probably shave his 91 RBI projection down a bit

Anonymous: Getting cold feet on Varsho in 1Catcher leagues. Seems pointless to play in the middle if you miss on JTR with all the juicy guys at the back

Paul Sporer: I get your general pt re: the middle, but Varsho is top tier. JTR/Varsho/Smith/Adley or wait in a 1C lg for me

TB(A): What about hopes for Josh Lowe?

Paul Sporer: Hope he can shave the K rate under 30% so TB gives him a real shot, otherwise I think it’s a bleak outlook for him

Big Moves: Will Lewin Diaz and Ryan O’Hearn being toggled around the waiver wire/Orioles franchise, is the only safe move to draft them both?

Paul Sporer: LOL yes, must load up on both!

Mitchell: Deep league depth. Spencer Steer vs Oswaldo Cabrera?

Paul Sporer: Cabrera has more category juice so I lean toward him

Pat’s Bat: Will the Yankees get another starter and would that push Frankie Montas to the pen?

Paul Sporer: I can see them getting another SP for depth, but not to replace Montas

Anonymous: No need to fade Devers since it’s an extension (not new team big contract)?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t get too worried about extensions

Jack: What are your thoughts on Ron Shandler’s BABS system?

Paul Sporer: Great concept, it’s a good way to focus on raw skills and range of outcomes as opposed to pinning everything on a single number

John W: Looking at an idea of trading my Oneil Cruz for one of either Altuve or Springer in a 5×5 OBP three-year keeper league. Thinking the boost in runs/OBP will negate the decrease I’m looking at in potentially HR/steals. Am I crazy for trying to sell Cruz now or should I hold?

Paul Sporer: Selling high makes a lot of sense to me and you really might not even be giving THATTT much in HR/SB

Craig: Bailey Falter or Jesus Luzardo for this season?

Paul Sporer: Luzardo for me

E: Does kirk not sneak into that top catching tier for you?

Paul Sporer: Not yet, no. It was a great 2-month run of excellence last yr, but he’s not set as a stud just yet. And I know Adley doesn’t have a ton of experience yet, either, but I believe him in more than Kirk in general

Craig: Outside of Realmuto & Contreras, which NL catcher has the best season?

Paul Sporer: Will Smith

Justin: any insight on why mullins went from 30 HRs/.291 avg in 21′ to 16 HRs/.258 in 22′?  Hitting in front of Adley, Gunnar and Santander, I figure he could threaten 100 Rs and maybe steal closer to 40 with the new rules in play.  Curious about the batted ball drops though

Paul Sporer: Standard regression after a career yr is a big part. While he is a lefty & the Camden switch hurts righties MORE, he also tanked at home, shaving 230 pts of OPS off his home mark.

ChiTown: Were we all too high on Madrigal two years ago, or will he regain fantasy relevance this year?  If the latter, it ain’t at Wrigley, right…?

Paul Sporer: I don’t bury him just bc I was “right” after a partial season, but I’m not a fan. He just doesn’t have any real fantasy juice and puts you in a major power hole

Dr. Funk: What is your outlook for Grissom in Dynasty Leagues?  For win now team in dynasty is he good enough now to shop veteran options like Story or should I be trying to trade him?

Paul Sporer: I’m open to selling right now. I like Grissom and see long-term upside, but he’s gonna be batting in the lower third (on a good tm, but still…) and I see a low-100s wRC+ w/some pop & speed… useful, but not game-changing

Frankefurter blurts an hors d’oeuvres order: Who has the best season out of each of these bunches of pitchers:

Hunter Brown, Andrew Painter, Mike Soroka, or Bobby Miller?

Dylan Cease, Spencer Strider, or Brady Singer?

Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Jake deGrom, or Carlos Rodon?

Paul Sporer: Brown, Strider, and then deGrom, but I don’t have much split b/w those 4 aces in the last group

Justin Mason: How much wood could a Woodruff Ruff, if a Woodruff could Ruff wood?

Paul Sporer: Valid question, we’ll do 2 hours on it tomorrow on the pod!

Chip: Which Trevor Rogers is the real Trevor Rogers, ’21 or ’22?

Paul Sporer: Not trying to copout, but a mix of the 2 is probably right answer. I lean more ’21 if healthy, though. I’m taking the discount (ADP 226) and running it back with T Rog!

Colton: Am I crazy for thinking Korey Lee should be getting a bit more attention than he is? Ballpark is great for right handed hitters and I’m not sure how much longer the Astros can continue putting Maldonado in the lineup, even with how good of a catcher he is

Paul Sporer: You’re not crazy. I wasn’t eyeing him much bc I was set on Toronto trading w/Houston to get them a C, but now that they’ve made their move, Houston will have to look elsewhere and perhaps internally. They have a deep enough lineup to sustain Maldonado for his defense, but Lee has a great shot to win the backup role and if he hits well, he could start siphoning more and more PT as the season wears on. Deep 2C leagues are the best place for Lee, otherwise just keep him on your watchlist and be ready to bounce if his path to PT improves.

Craig W.: Are you high on Zac Gallen for this season? What tier do you have him in NL only for starters?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s my 8th SP in the NL which I’d probably say is Tier 2 (MIL studs, Sandy, PHI studs as T1, Strider, Urias, Gallen, NYM studs as T2)

Anonymous: Thanks for keeping the pods and analysis going year round. In my brain, the cold months are when the real psychos can get an advantage on managers who start their prep after the Super Bowl

Paul Sporer: No problem! We were dark for the observed New Year on Monday, but back tomorrow and shouldn’t have any real lulls the rest of the way now that we’re into 2023!

Guest: Which ARI pitcher has the best season? Jameson, Pfaadt or Nelson?

Paul Sporer: I have Jameson & Pfaadt close for the top spot of the 3 leaning Jameson. Interestingly, Nelson is the only listed in the rotation on RosterResource, though that is more Jason’s best guess as opposed to set in stone so it could end up a battle for the 5th spot in spring

Mark: Do you like Baez for a bounce back this year?

Paul Sporer: Decent bet to be better than ’22, but I’m not actively seeking him out as I think ’22 was in his range of outcomes. He’s discounted enough to take a shot as your MI, but temper expectations

Mike: I’m pretty high on Rowdy Tellez in an OBP league. He had a low Babip last year and the shift is going away. I’m thinking .330-.350 obp with 30 HR and 90 RBI can be penciled in. What do you think?

Paul Sporer: Shifts are being altered, not entirely removed so I’m reluctant to go too hard on expected changes for players. That said, I love an AVG boost (and thus an OBP boost) for Tellez on regression alone (.215 BABIP). I have him for .249/29/83 right now

Scrapper: How do you go about assessing a pitcher’s health going forward?

Paul Sporer: Definitely a player-to-player thing as chronic injuries are more worrisome than 1-offs. Generally, I don’t buy too deeply into the notion of a “safe” pitcher health-wise. Everyone is a 1 pitch away so I’m not going to take the less skilled guy bc of his perceived health. Of course, even accounting for chronic issues can lead you astray as Pablo Lopez’s shoulder held up this year, yielding a career high 180 IP!

Dan: Dylan Carlson still appealing at all in dynasty? Just turned 24, and has had times when he’s looked like he’s figured it out

Paul Sporer: I’ve been a DC believer throughout so I’m biased toward him, but yes I’m staying bought in another year, especially with the robust discount (pick 300 ADP)

E: I mean Vinny played pretty well in a half season in just that situation last year… Also, the royals are planning a new park (https://ballparkdigest.com/2022/11/15/royals-propose-new-downtown-kans…). Park factors could be very different in a couple years.

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’d be interesting if they became more hitter friendly as this set of young bats takes off (MJ, Witt, Vinnie on the high end and Pratto, Mondesi, Olivares as potential studs)

Mustin Jason: In what depth leagues are you comfortable starting Morel? Rostering?

Paul Sporer: I’d roster him as a reserve in 12s and start him in 15s

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: How are you feeling about Albies this year?

Paul Sporer: My boy Ozzie!! I’m willing to take this discount during the winter bc a healthy Albies will move up in the Spring. Not saying I wouldn’t still take him at an elevated price (currently 52 ADP, could see him in the low-40s, late-30s if he looks like himself in ST), but I want to catch the discount before that possibly happens

Craig W.: Thoughts on Alek Thomas this year? Did you see enough positives after last years call up for optimism this season?

Paul Sporer: He’s likely to start in AAA so I’m not really drafting him in leagues right now unless they have deep reserve rosters, but even in Draft Champions with 50 rds, I’m not dying to take someone who I expect to spend time in AAA as those can pile up and leave you without fill-ins if you’re not careful. I like the player long-term, but not super keen on him for ’23, even at a relatively fair price in the early-300s

Dan: Remember when Goldy couldn’t hit fastballs for like three months in 2019? Weird slump.

Paul Sporer: Jose Ramirez had that wild extended slump, too! Baseball is a wild game like that

Justin Mason: Does change in casual weather affect how you do your rankings?

Paul Sporer: It has a HEAVY impact, but I keep that behind closed doors as it is the bulk of my edge on the field

Paul Sporer: (can’t wait for someone to take that seriously & furiously start Googling “casual weather”)

Paul Sporer: btw, have you finished your 1B projections so we can discuss both our sets on the show tomorrow?!?!?!?

Dan: Hader or Devin Williams next year?

Paul Sporer: I have Hader 3/Williams 4 so essentially a coinflip!

Arm fatigue: Is Ranger Suarez a SP3 in a 6 cat (QS) roto?  Also will Pfaddt start in the rotation?

Paul Sporer: More of an SP4 re: Ranger and I’m not sure re: Pfaadt. Do a Ctrl-F on Pfaadt to find where I discussed him, Jameson, and Nelson. I love Pfaadt & Jameson, but they could be fighting for 1 spot in Spring so I’m not drafting a ton of either just yet. See them as a key waiver pickups

Broken Bat: Who breaks thrust and hits the firmer prospect top tier level, Tavares or Marsh? #2 do you like the Dodger infield defensively. Happy New Year.

Paul Sporer: I’m still on the Leody Taveras train as he’s just 24 this yr and we actually saw a little something in his MLB sample in ’22. I see the 2 pretty similarly overall with Marsh holding a power edge and Taveras being a better spd/AVG option

JWR: _____ is my favorite pitcher right now in terms of pure stuff.

Paul Sporer: Healthy deGrom still holding the top spot there

Vince: Hi! 10-team, H2H, Category. How would you rank Nimo, Kwan, Marte? And thoughts on L Arraez? Thanks

Paul Sporer: I like them in the order you listed w/Kwan edging Marte bc he actually runs. I’m just not in on Arraez for fantasy purposes… especially shallower leagues. The AVG is great, but I need more to buy in

Guest: Thoughts on JD Davis this year? He didnt make your top 50 1B but posted a 140 WRC+ after being traded. His last four years of WRC+ are 137, 118, 129, and 119 despite a slow start. There’s a clear path to everyday AB with Longoria gone, and SF isnt nearly as crippling on RH bats as lefties. I think he posts the best season by a JD in California and is viable CI even in shallow leagues but is being mostly ignored by the community at large.

Paul Sporer: Doesn’t hit the 20 gm qualification for 1B (would’ve def made the Top 50 otherwise), but I know many lgs use a lower threshold so you’re golden there (he had 18). I agree he’s a bit overlooked, though it’s understandable for a 30 yr old corner who has reached 400 PA just once in his career. He’s priced to buy if you play in a deeper league with an ADP outside the Top 400 and I can see him being a nice waiver scoop in shallower formats if he hits the ground running and builds upon his strong career 119 wRC+ now that he has a full-time role in hand

Randy: Andrew Vaughn’s third season: Does he push his power into mid-twenties?

Paul Sporer: Definitely plausible and even has major breakout potential as outlined in my 1B ranks: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-first-base-rankings/ — I can definitely see a huge breakout from Andrew Vaughn, though my projection on him is more measured with a .280 AVG and low-20s HR output. If he takes a leap, there is .300/30 potential. The OF flexibility adds to his appeal, too.

Shifty-ish: Corey Seager hits .450 this year with the new shift rules………….

Paul Sporer: AT LEASTTTT

Mia Khalifa: Will Franmil Reyes get a major league contract?

Paul Sporer: Think he at least cops of spring invite, but not sure he locks down a guaranteed MLB deal

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, hit ya with 2 hours to make up for being a day late… back on regularly scheduled Wednesday next week!! Thanks so much for coming out, have a good one!