Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 28th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Helloooooo everyone!! Thanks for coming out, hopefully you’re warming up wherever you are. The ice & snow is melting rapidly here in Austin, TX as we push into the 50s

Domingo: Regarding today’s article on Soderstrom: why aren’t projection systems buying in?

Paul Sporer: I think they kind of are, coalescing around a 25/80-type projection after 25/93 last yr. They bring the AVG down to the .250s instead of last year’s .276, but that’s just smart after a .327 BABIP. Plan for the .250s and take any extra as a bonus. I’m willing to pay the Top 100 pick for Soderstrom!

Chas: On Jose Ramirez, and I mean this question literally: How does he do it?
He sports poor barrel rates, poor exit velocities, poor hard-hit rates. Yet the outcomes are always outstanding. What gives? Is it his ability to square up the ball and launch? And if so, will that skill set age poorly compared to sluggers who simply hit the ball hard?

Paul Sporer: I will say off rip I don’t really know. But you’re definitely keyed in on one of his key attributes: the ability to square it up. He rates highly since that’s been being tracked. He pulls the ball in the air and lives in his sweet spot so while he doesn’t high rate of premium barrels, he has enough bc he also doesn’t strike out so he has enough volume to be super dangerous.

His 37% Hard Hit rate is 4 pts below league average and ranks 117th among qualified hitters but his 194 hard hits are 45th. It all still starts w/the basics – Ks and BBs. He doesn’t K (8th in MLB) and gets enough BBs (46th in MLB). Since he’s putting the ball in play so much, he doesn’t have to maintain insane Barrel & HH rates to be successful and these plate skills should age well so if he can continue to be a pulled-flyball stud, his HRs shouldn’t crater as he ages.

(Took a while on this one bc I had to look up a buncha stuff!)

James: About equal cheapish cost in a 14 team. Who is my last keeper? Jackson Merrill, o Neil Cruz, or Zach Neto? I’m torn.

Paul Sporer: Close enough to be torn, but I gotta go with Neto. There’s some AVG risk on his .247 career mark given the modest plate skills but he’s a power-speed demon averaging 26 of each per 650 PA in the majors and needed just 554 PA to reach those exact marks in 2025, too!

Steve: How far are you downgrading Jasson Dominguez, if at all, given he doesn’t currently project to crack the Opening Day lineup?  Trying to determine if he is a buy low target or someone to ignore.

YouDervush: how much does Jasson Dominguez take a hit with Bellinger re-singing in NYY?

Paul Sporer: The dip does create a buying opportunity, IMO. I’m a Trent Grisham fan as a player (which is to say I root for him, but understand his fantasy limitations), but I don’t think he’s some immovable object in CF, plus this is an aged roster so opportunities will arise for the 23-year old. He’s currently going juuust outside the Top 200 but anywhere in that 180-210 range works for me. Other OF in that range – Profar, Bryan Reynolds (huge fan of a bounceback for him), Varsho, Lile, Frelick, and Trout. Dominguez has as much upside as any of those guys and you don’t have to squint too hard to see him being the best of the bunch.

jesperbratt: thoughts on a Matt McLain bounce back this year?

Paul Sporer: :sheepishly: Yes, one more year! I’m not chasing him as I was in the past, but I’m not shying away from the ~225 ADP range. His shoulder was clearly a problem last year. It’s not automatically fixed just with time, though, so he’s someone I’m more likely to take in Spring drafts if we’re seeing him strike the ball more consistently

OMG It’s Paul: Hey Paul!
13 tm, std roto. Keep three at round value.
I have Kurtz (11), Neto (12), Roman (19) currently; alternatives are JRam (1), Goodman, Gore, or Priester (all 12).
I think I’m correct but can you verify?

Paul Sporer: Great collection! I ride with your 3 as well, those rounds are just too good!!

Matt: How are you feeling about Bieber going into this season? He’s still relatively young

Paul Sporer: Turns out I’m way ahead of the market right now, ranking him 33rd while he goes around the 60th SP. My winter drafting is underway so I’m ready to battle test my rankings and Bieber will be an interesting pivot point. I’ll see if I’m ready to take him if he does in fact sit atop my board as the clear #1. He came back to former quicker than I expected, but I am a little cautious on the 1.8 HR9. I don’t think he’ll live there, but I do think 30s-era Bieber will be a HR guy (>1.1).

Domingo: Believing in a Bogaerts bounceback at this age seems so wrong but feels so right

Paul Sporer: Honestly more of the same is OK with me for an early-200s ADP. Double/double (10+ HR/SB) with .260s is nice in that area of the draft

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat, excited for another year. 12tm 6×6 QS, $275 budget. Need to keep 3 of the following: EDLC ($35), J. Wood ($20), J. Ryan ($17), Maikel Garcia ($10)

My initial thought was the first three, but I’m second guessing Wood with his 2nd half & K-rate (Eno disagrees), and thinking the Garcia breakout is for real. I’m typically wary of keeping pitchers, but I feel like that price for Joe Ryan with his ceiling is hard to pass up. Appreciate your insight!

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out, love this time of year as baseball is bubbling under the surface! I’m inclined to keep Wood, but switch Ryan for Garcia. I can’t shake the feeling that Ryan is still living on the wire a bit with that HR rate which increases his flameout potential. The WHIP & Ks keep his floor pretty high as we saw in 2023 when had the 4.51 ERA but still a 1.17 WHIP and 29% K so don’t take this as fully out, but in a keeper sitch like this, I’m going the 3 batters

JC: Kyle Teel is ranked so far below Drake Baldwin. Baldwin makes more contact but the rest looks so similar. Am I missing a downside of Teel? Just a bad lineup?

Paul Sporer: I think it just comes down to Baldwin having done more and winning ROY bc otherwise you’re onto something for sure. In exchange for the contact, Teel walks a good bit more than Baldwin so at least he is making up for the added Ks in some way. Baldwin has a power edge and that shows itself in a blood red StatCast profile, but then that’s covered in the nearly 100 pick difference (90 DB, 185 KT) and I also wouldn’t rule out Teel improving his punch some.

Guest: would love your expert opinion on my final 2 keeper slots (roto 12 team $260): Bednar $10, Ben Rice $12, Buxton $9, Baldwin $6, Schwelly $18, E Diaz $23. I’m already keeping Skubal/EDLC/deGrom/Cade Smith/Tucker/Vlad for $162 combined. I’m leaning towards Rice and Bednar…

Paul Sporer: Man oh man, the trials and tribulations of closers!! Imagine saying that re: Bednar after his 2024… now he’s the Yankees presumed closer looking as sharp as ever. Yeah I’m doubling up your Yanks here. 2 locked closers w/him & Cade and a great hitting foundation. You’ve got quite a core to work with here!

Rob: Is Jordan Lawlar going to get at bats this year?

Paul Sporer: In AAA!

Paul Sporer: Not trying to snarky, of course I’ll expound, but unless he shifts to OF or an injury opens a spot, he’s not making the team so he’ll be at AAA amassing some PA. And that’s what he needs right now – playing time. Might be better for Arizona to have him as a super utility on the bench, but it’s better for his dev to play daily at AAA until a spot is open.

Injuries have kept him from reaching even 400 PA since 2023 and he’s yet to have a 500 PA pro season since being drafted in 2021. He’s not off my draft board bc he could fall into a spot and click, so I’d take him if he was outside pick-400 in a Draft Champions, but I’m certainly not seeking him out as he seems like a summer contributor at best and it’s hard to draft players like that (keeper lgs are different, of course, and I’m still in long-term)

Blue Jay Nation: Paul, are you forecasting full-time AB’s for Addison Barger? Will they give him enough run against LHP, or is he destined for 400 AB’s? Toss me a stat line if you dare – thanks!

Paul Sporer: We did just get 502! I don’t think they’ll zero out his PA vL but even if he is mostly platooned, he can still get >500 if he’s locked into the top 4 of the order vR all the time and dotted in vL

Fuck ICE: Wish the ice were melting more.

Paul Sporer: Melting away entirely would be ideal

GP: Do you believe in a Perdomo repeat? 80% of 2025? Total regression?

Paul Sporer: I’d be really shocked by a full regression. I’m a Perdomo believer. Strong foundational plate skills (which help fuel a solid .270s type AVG), locked PT as long as he’s upright, and 18 SB/600 PA feels like the bankable portion of the profile. The power is the big question, jumping to a career-best .173 ISO (.095 career coming in) and 20 HRs came in a Jose Ramirez Jr. style where his power metrics aren’t soaring at all, but he pulled it in the air enough to get to 20. It’s prudent to bring it back down to around 11-12 to be safe.

Ben: Quick hit 3-partner

Jeremy Pena — another level if he plays more games?   The projections are giving  him last year’s production across a much larger pool of games.

Riley Greene — can he combine his average from 2 years ago with his power from last year in one last big breakout?

McGonigle — underrated because of Griffin?

(I know you’re a homer but can be objective 🙂

Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Pena could deliver a .280-20-20-90 if he leads off all year. The beauty is he doesn’t need to do that at pick 94. More of the same is fine!

Only way a big AVG comes back for Greene is via a massive BABIP unless he just miraculously cuts the Ks. He had a .384 BABIP driving that .288 AVG in 2023. Since 2023, there are only 12 seasons of .280 AVG and 25% K — all but Shohei’s 2025 had a .356 BABIP or higher.

McGonigle could be a fantasy impact guy upon arrival. There’s no clear room right now so he’s not terribly expensive around pick-300, but he could just rake his way onto the team in Spring Training

mario: Keep Freeman or Trout at mid-range price? replacement level for either is not great in this keeper league

Paul Sporer: Freeman’s injury record isn’t spotless, but it’s better than Trout’s so I’m going with the consistent, bankable excellence in Freeman

Domingo: Not fantasy related but why doesn’t anyone make a qualifying offer at like 30 million to make it more enticing when they want a player to accept?

Paul Sporer: It’s a set number

CrewsBlues: Has your faith waned in Crews or is 20/40 still on the table?

Paul Sporer: No I’m holding firm. Agree that 20/40 remains on the table!!

Mike: Keeper question: Buxton for $6 or C. Sanchez for $13?

Paul Sporer: Absent other info, if aces are high-20s/low-30s in your league then I’m going Sanchez. I know Buxton finally had the complete fantasy season we’d been waiting for but even that was still just 126 games. Yeah pitchers break, but so does Buxton. Gimme Sanchez!

Hank Scorpio: Follow up on my question after seeing your take on locked in closers… you preferred Wood ($20) and Garcia ($10) in my keeper question. I also have Cade Smith ($10) as an option. I am loathe to keep closers, but they’re at such a premium now

Paul Sporer: I am a pay for a saves player in this day and age. Smith is about as good as it gets, I think I’m taking him over Garcia. Totally understand the reluctance to keep closers, but with info we have to predict things — who’s better? Few, if any. He’s fully in the convo for best closer this year and with the number of bankable closers dwindling yearly, I’ll take one of the very best at a great price

Paul Sporer: Great stuff today, y’all, thanks. Should have time for a marathon chat soon (multiple hrs), maybe next wk or the week after. Stay safe, everyone!