Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 21st, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out Mini-update on the SP rankings just went live, too – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2026-fantasy-rankings

Paul Sporer: I’ll have another update this weekend as long as the icestorm doesn’t take out my power!

Frank: In a keeper forever, would you rather have Hunter Brown OR Logan Webb and Trey Yesavage?

Paul Sporer: As much as I love Hunter Brown, I’ve gotta take the 2 shots w/Webb & Trey

Greg: Who are some guys you would bump up your rankings in a points league that heavily weighs IP, K and W?

Paul Sporer: The guys with better volume track records. I still know it’s not guaranteed as any arm can get hurt, but the guys with several 30+ start seasons under their belt are gonna get the tiebreaker v. those per-inning monsters in a points format. I won’t completely shy away from a Glasnow/Snell type as I can still supplement their missed innings off the wire, but I’m not going to load my rotation up w/those types and have to spend most of my season replacing 2-3 arms via the wire. That’s already a risk any year bc pitchers break, but inviting it w/several guys who’ve max at 120 IP should only be done if you like playing waivers for arms and are in a league with a rich enough pool to make it worthwhile

Matt: (Ottoneu) How are you thinking about Strider next year? Was offered my Stanton($3), Bieber ($13), R Suarez ($12), Correa ($12) for Bichette ($22), Strider ($28) and Vientos ($8). I want to remove Vientos and Stanton, but feel like that’s probably an overpay from my POV.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t think I’m there with that one. I’m ready to invest that kinda money in Strider again just yet. He still has big upside but I’ve definitely dinged his floor a bit. If we see the velo spike back up in March, I’m open to buying back in, but the problem there is the price will then surge and he’ll be a firm top 100 pick. I’d hold your guys here

Luisangel Acuña: Is Luisangel Acuña going to breakout with the ChiSox? (Haha, I used “breakout” and “ChiSox” in same sentence…)

Paul Sporer: Hey the Sox are doin things! That lineup is starting to really round out with more help on the way. The pitching is still behind, but there’s even more help coming there. Acuña should get a real shot at full-time burn which definitely gives him breakout potential for our purposes in fantasy baseball. He has a 40 SB/600 PA pace in his limited MLB work, but he is a rabbit meaning it’s just SBs.

He’s a single-digit HR guy with AVG projections in the .240s. His speed plus some BABIP luck could take that further, but the power isn’t coming so you should plan accordingly. I’m always nervous about taking the 0 PWR (not literally, but sub-10 might as well be) guys so I usually try to plan for them meaning I’ll stack power/AVG out front leaving the plan open to Acuña, Simpson, Scott types. I’m curious to see where this takes his price. He was an afterthought prior to his (626 ADP) and that’s going to shoot WAY up. I’m guessing low-to-mid 300s is where he’ll land which will put around the aforementioned Scott (339)

Matt: Just traded Salvy ($8) for Beli ($18) in a 12 tm roto dynasty (OBP/TB). Needed OF and have Goodman at C. Win win?

Paul Sporer: Definitely! I like that deal both ways for sure

Chuck: Projection systems all have Hunter Greene with 171-184 IP. You buying that? He’s never come close.

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to predict injury, though, and that’s the only thing keeping him from it which I think is what the projection is trying to convey. The Reds have no reason to baby him so the reigns are off as long as he’s upright. He did hit 150 in 2024 so using that as the platform to build on, 170s is a very reasonable 15% boost. I totally get being skeptical of it given his peak of 150, so put 130 worth of stats into his field when you draft so you can plan to cover his potential missed time and then it’s purely bonus if he reaches or exceeds his career high.

Jace: Is Ryan Pepiot an ace in the making?

Paul Sporer: Maybe a bit shy of that, but I think there’s more in the tank. I’m a huge Pepiot fan. His profile is one of the new ones on today’s SP update so I’ll just pull from there:

The shift back to the Tropicana Stadium has me even more interested in Ryan Pepiot and his rotation mates this year. Stienbrenner Field in Tampa Bay was definitely better (102 Park Factor) for hitters than the Trop (97 in 2023-24) and Pepiot dodged the full brunt of it by posting a 3.41 ERA despite a 1.7 HR9 in 16 home starts. The move back to The Trop will likely leave that bill unpaid as he has a 1.1 HR9 in 14 starts there. He only needs some work around the edges to be strong #2 starter – cut down the multi-homer games and/or shave the walks a bit. I’d also take a rinse-and-repeat of his 2025 season.

Jomi: Do we trust Cole Ragans to stay healthy and dominate this year?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m paying for him at cost (50 ADP). His talent is just too good to pass up and it’s not like we’re wishcasting that he can take 30+ turns bc he has done it before, so yeah, I’m easily in on him!

Opt-Out: 12T mixed roto ( with keepers)  Who would you draft first : KTucker, Vlad or Lindor ?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s a trio right there. I don’t wanna be a Fence Sitting Frankie, but knowing your keepers would def play a role. Absent that, I think I’m going Vlad-Tuck-Lind but I’m torn on Vlad-Tuck. I had a little concern on what Wrigley could do to Tucker as a lefty and he did end up struggling there (7 HR, .236 AVG | 15, .292 on road). While Dodger Stadium is only 1 pt better than Wrigley on composite park factor (99 to 98), it’s 24 pts better in HR factor!! I’m confident his bat will bounce back, but will the Dodgers let him run? That’s why I still lean toward Vlad in that trio, but Tuck is right there. Still love Lindor, just 3rd for me here

JoJo: These AL MIs going to make a big impact in 26? brooks Lee, Colson Montgomery and now Luisangel Acuna?

Paul Sporer: Discussed Acuña earlier and see him as a rabbit this year which can have value if you build it right. His new teammate Colson Montgomery outran a 29% K rate in a 21-HR debut. I know some might see upside in the .239 AVG bc he only had a .263 BABIP but he seems more like a .280s type BABIP guy. Lotta swing and miss will bring volatility but power and opportunity give him some juice. Lee could end up the cheapest of the group if Acuña jumps to the low-300s and I’d be OK just waiting on him. Colson could go .225/30 whereas I see Lee as more of a .255/18 and I’d rather find the missing HRs elsewhere than take a potential AVG drag

Dude, you got aDell: Do you believe Adell has arrived or is it fools gold?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s fool’s gold — this breakout fits his skills: blood red power profile and an opportunity to flex. He can definitely repeat this with another 30+ HRs and maybe even eclipse 100 RBIs w/an improved Angels lineup. There’s still some AVG risk when .236 is a 4-yr high and it might be more fun to find the next Adell – a post-hype prospect clicking for a full season – versus paying a top 120 pick here

Kate: Does Dylan Cease have an Aaron Nola even years thing? Do they both shove this year?

Paul Sporer: I trust Cease more to get back on track than Nola. Nola’s HRs aren’t getting any better and present a major concern for me!

DJ: Simeon Woods Richardson is only 25 years old. Do you think he’s baked even at that age or is a breakout still possible?

Paul Sporer: He could certainly alter his pitch mix in a way that taps another level, but as-is I don’t see where the gains would come from to take him out of a #5 mold (IRL, not on a fantasy roster). If he can turn something into a real swing-and-miss pitch that helps curb the HRs and improve the Ks, sure, but we haven’t seen that on the table yet

Oddball Herrera: Is Crews a “buy low” or a “let another chump waste a draft pick buying low” guy for you?  I’m continuing to see the occasional optimistic take on him, which is impressive for a guy who just put up  a .200 season with just 10 homers

Paul Sporer: Buy low for me. Pick 180 is totally worth it. I was big on him last year and it was a flop without a doubt, but I’m not canning him. The price drop is good enough for me to stay bought in again this year

Jasper: What’s up Paul! Thanks for the rankings. I have 5 of your top 13 in my keeper league, which means I’ll finish in 4th place 😀

Paul Sporer: Hopefullyyyy that bodes well and they stay healthy for you!!

KC Fence: How much are you factoring in the new dimensions in Kansas City? I’m terrified of Michael Wacha now, for example.

Paul Sporer: It definitely matters, but I’m not going crazy one way or the other. If people start moving Vinnie P up multiple rounds off this news, I gotta tap out. I’m more inclined to tap the brakes a little on some of their more HR-friendly SPs like Lugo, Wacha, and even Cameron at 1.2 last yr. Wacha did manage a 0.8 last yr but that came w/a 7% HR/FB.

In fact, Wacha’s managed an 8% HR/FB since 2023 despite an 11% career mark including a 5%!! at home last yr. I’d expect him closer to his 11% career mark at home which would be 6-7 more HRs. Add that to his 2025 numbers and it’d bump him to a 1.1 HR9 which just so happens to be his career mark! You’re right to be cautious bc of this move, but at ADP 371 I think he’s still priced fairly enough to take on as a team streamer. I wouldn’t stop using him at home automatically because of this.

Ben: Where do you think Ketel Marte ranks this year? I feel like he’s an elite second baseman? Maybe?

Paul Sporer: Yes, though some of that the simple lack of heat at the top of the 2B rankings. Jazz, Ketel, Turang, Nico, and Altuve are the Top 5 in 2B ADP and Nico/Altuve aren’t even in the top 100!

Keeper Q: Hi Paul, which frightening specimen should I retain as my last keeper: Carlos Estevez or Aaron Nola? Thanks again!

Paul Sporer: While I don’t expect a repeat, I’ll take Estevez as the should-be closer in KC

Matt: Thoughts on ya boy Melton? He’ll be a SP…worth a late auction flier? Will he provide value and potentially be a fantasy 4 or 5?

Paul Sporer: Looove his talent! I’m very excited to watch him again this year. I do think he’ll likely start the season in the pen or AAA as long as the expected 5 are healthy (Skubal, Flaherty, Mize, Olson, KBO returner Drew Anderson 앤더슨) so keep that in mind if you’re drafting him. I don’t mind taking him in Draft Champions but he feels like first man up with an intentional plan of not pushing all 6 months in the rotation after 121 IP last year

boobie miles: Odds that Wetherhot, McGonagle and J. Crawford each break camp with their respective clubs?

Paul Sporer: Way too early to feel good about calling any of those tbh, but the plausible path is there for all 3 which is why they are all top 300 picks in Draft Champions formats. Crawford has the clearest path with no CF penciled into the roster right now

fishy: Which Marlin do you like the most in OBP league: Marsee, Stowers or Lopez?

Paul Sporer: Jakob Marsee!

Austin Wells Finger: Thanks for the hard work on your SP rankings. Why the big drop for Bryce Miller in your most recent update?

Paul Sporer: He was just overranked and I finally caught it. I’ll write him up in the next update to clarify a bit. I didn’t have an awakening of hating him, I was just prepping my draft list and realized I was not at all comfortable w/him in that spot so dropped him!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out! Thanks for coming. New SP Ranking update went live today and I’ll have another coming soon. Ideally on the weekend but any severe weather puts our electricity in peril in Texas so I won’t commit to the weekend just in case!