Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 14th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Sorry I’m late, I have to add my chat back to my Reminders app. I was just going through the day as if it were Tuesday

clydethedog: NL only 4 x 4 (no runs, no k’s) Keeper League

I have Emilio Pagan and Bryce Eldridge at incredibly cheap, would you try to package them together for another cheap keeper like James Wood or Jackson Chourio?

Paul Sporer: If you can do that, absolutely. I benefitted from Pagan’s huge year but I’m cashing the hell out. No chance I’m running it back. If he beats the HRs again (1.3 in ’25), I’ll tip my cap and eat the L

Deep in Draft Prep: Who is the one player (can be any position) you’re planting your flag on who is currently being drafted outside of the top 150 who will finish the season in the the top 75?

Paul Sporer: Addison Barger (190 ADP) is someone I really like. A bit raw, but smacks the absolute piss outta the ball. I don’t think he’d need to make a huge leap to go .260/30 – think Brandon Lowe from last year.

Davio: Sox get Ranger. Who do you prefer over Tolle or Early? I’d bet on of them goes in a deal.

Paul Sporer: Oh wow, 5/130. I’m not sure either break camp in the rotation now. It seemed when they got Gray, that the tea leaves were pointing Early’s way w/Tolle being a bit more raw. But like I said, I now think both are headed for the AAA rotation to start the year. So much can happen between now and of course, both are still draftable in something like a 50-round Draft Champions and that’s where I’ll lean toward Early.

Big Dumper: Hi Paul, thanks for doing these chats! I’ve been a believer in getting a horse SP in the first two rounds, however after starting my draft prep, I might be leaning against that strategy. Let’s say a standard 5×5 roto league, would you take a SP in say the back half of round 1 or early round 2 or wait it out? (For the purposes of this, let’s say Skenes and Skubal and Crochet are not available)

Paul Sporer: I’ve been debating this as well. My early thinking is I’d like my SP and RP ace in the first 10 rounds w/8 hitters and then play the middle and endgame with arm accumulation. Where to take that ace starter definitely depends on my pick but if we’re looking late round 1 to early round 2 w/the big 3 gone, I’m good w/big bat + Yoshi. I’m just not sure he’s that far behind the big 3.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Was listening to Rates and Barrels’ SS episode yesterday. Eno’s take was is if you miss out on BWJ, EDLC, Gunnar, Lindor, Turner or Neto in the top 50 picks, skip over the next group (Mookie, Perdomo, Abrams, Pena) to target someone like Seager around pick 120. Agree or disagree?

Paul Sporer: Yep, I expect to feel similarly during the SS preview. I might take out Abrams as I’m a little more comfortable w/him, especially if I need speed, but then throw Story and Bichette in w/those other 3 as the next 5 ahead of Seager I’d pass to wait for him. Mookie’s age is showing, Perdomo is a bit risky paying full freight off the breakout and the same w/Pena. Story was awesome, but I’d rather just go for Abrams who is a younger version (20 HR-30 SB) and then Bichette in Year 1 of whatever deal he gets I’m unlikely to dive in

Byrdette: Can Trey Yesavage become someone to believe in this season?

Paul Sporer: He certainly can. As to whether or not he will, that is more up for debate and I’m being a bit cautious on him. I can’t get there for a top 150 pick. And it’s not about a blanket track record thing bc I’m down to take a shot on someone who hasn’t quite proven it in the majors yet, it’s more about Yesavage himself and my concerns w/his control and how that will play out during his full season debut

SFG: If he ends up in SF, where do you see Hoerner batting in their lineup? Leadoff? 2 hole?

Paul Sporer: I wonder if he might dip lower to the bottom third 😬 They might go 2 and bump everyone down, but I’d rather leave Adames-Devers-Chap at 2-3-4 w/the power of Ramos/Eldridge there at 5-6. So maybe if they get him, Nico slots in Schmitt’s spot both on the field at 2B and in the expected lineup we have on RosterResource at 7

Ranger: How do you like the Suarez contract? I mean he’s good but giving 5 years to a guy with a 90 mile fastball is… ehh

Paul Sporer: You summed up my feelings perfectly! I love players getting paid as a pro-labor guy, but judging my w/OOTP GM hat on, no way I’d be running a term like that. I know players want years, but I’d rather a higher annual for 3 or get an out somewhere if things go south as they so often do w/SPs

clydethedog: What are the odds Emmeet Sheehan gets an honest shake in the rotation? He has the stuff to be successful, right?

Paul Sporer: Oh you know there’ll be standard Dodgers shenanigans. To draft a young Dodgers arm, you have to be comfortable with uncertainty. He did reach 123 total IP in 2023 between minors/majors, so after a great return last year hopefully they are willing to use that 123 as the platform he can grow from, adding maybe 10-15% to 130-140. Although, they might have a full season plan for that which would include saving some juice for the playoffs so maybe it’s prudent to use his 123 career high as a high end outcome

boobie miles: Nolan McLean, Jacob Misiorowski,  Chase Burns .. rank them longterm

Paul Sporer: How long term are we talking. I don’t have a heavy split on them long term bc if they stay healthy, any or all of the three have the stuff to become aces. McLean’s got the cleanest command profile right now so I will lean his way, but then Miz/Burns is a true coinflip for me. I lean slightly toward Miz with Milwaukee’s development and better park (though those factors aren’t static, of course)

Insert Witty Name Here: Re: Mookie – Obvs he wasn’t well to start the year which showed itself throughout the end.  If you could trust any athlete to sustain into the mid 30’s, it has to be him right?  Esp in that lineup, dare I say he’s undervalued?

Paul Sporer: Mannn, I don’t know. I love Mookie and you’re right he closed better, including a great September. But is he done running after just 8 this year? He volumed his way to a top 70 batter season despite the struggles but what if the way to get his bat back up some is via rest so the trade off is R/RBI. I can’t say I won’t draft him bc I am such a fan, but I just prefer Seager’s 114 ADP to Mookie’s 65 right now

Colton: Red Sox must either think they can trade an arm for a bat really quick or believe Marcelo Mayer is going to take a massive step forward this year. That’s an odd signing for them I feel like, maybe some panic for losing Bregman.

Paul Sporer: Gotta be a trade working, right? Gotttaaaaa be

Mario: Freddie Freeman… how near the cliff are we?

Paul Sporer: The question is, will it be a cliff or stair-step erosion where he gracefully lands the plane if his body holds up at all. Questioning how well his body will hold is fair and leaves me likely fading him this year, comfortable to be a year too early if he does in fact just churn out another banger season.

Ice Cream Helmet: My league is growing from 10 to 11 teams this year. Any general auction draft or teambuilding tips to keep in mind as league size increases?

Paul Sporer: First thing I thought of was the impact on saves. if you’re a pay for saves manager, you might be prepared to pay a bit extra with another team battling for the ever-dwindling pool of relief aces

JT: Am I the last Lawlar believer in the world?

Paul Sporer: Does Arizona even believe in him? jk jk — I think he just needs more reps. He has 2 pro seasons over 400 PA and they’re 2022-23. They prefer those reps in the minors as they are trying to contend. Lawlar is a great insurance policy for Arenado if he doesn’t have any bounce back in his bat.

Even Arenado isn’t all the way back, ideally he can give them juice in the first half while they let Lawlar pile up some PA then he can come up and learn from Arenado! So now, you’re not the last believer. Remember, he’s still just 23 so this is a classic case of prospect fatigue. Don’t quite Lawlar, especially you keeper leaguers.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Re: Sheehan’s usage – recall that 2023 was the year the dodgers rotation was a hurt Kershaw, the shell of Lance Lynn, and flash in the pan Bobby Miller. The dudes he’s competing with for innings are MUCH better this time around.

Paul Sporer: That’s a good point! Of course, if he pitches like ’25, then he’s every bit as worthy (23% K-BB, 3.20 SIERA)

Byrdette: Will Troy Melton be in the starting rotation this year.I think he can be a quality starter

Paul Sporer: I think he has game-changing ability and will be a good starter. i don’t know if the Tigers will give him a spot from day 1 and instead might opt to slow roll the start of his season and unleash him as an SP from May onward, so you might have to be patient w/him if you draft him.

Of course, if you’re drafting in the winter, it’s like Draft Champions and I have no problem taking him in those. Even in a standard waiver league that’s draft very early, you can take him and then let him be one of your first cuts if he doesn’t get a rotation spot out of camp, but for the bulk of waiver leaguers, you’ll be drafting w/knowledge of his SP status

Farhandrew Zaidman: As a tigers fan, where are you at on the Skubal arb situation?

Paul Sporer: It sucks so much. Doesn’t leave confident about paying him a long-term deal, either, unfortunately

Rizzuto: Hey Paul. What is your opinion of Miami OF Jakob Marsee? Got him cheap late last year in our keeper league. Worth a spot in my straight points outfield? Wondering if good enough.

Paul Sporer: Biiiig fan, I’d take the shot. He has loud fantasy skills and should get all the PT his body can handle. Power, speed, good plate skills, leadoff spot — very fun player! Marlins lineup getting a bit deeper, too… wouldn’t say it’s elite or anything but he can score a lot of runs if the Edwards-Stowers-Ramirez trio behind him stays healthy

Straburg’s Elbow: Piggbyacking off of the question earlier about players being drafted outside the top 150 to finish in the top 75, which player or players currently being drafted in the top 75 finish outside of the top 175

Paul Sporer: That’s tougher bc to fall 100 spots, it’s often just going to be injury. But if we’re just identifying worrisome skillsets in the Top 75, I think PCA fits the ball. Loud fantasy upside w/the power-speed, but we saw how far he fell off in the 2H and if he doesn’t have an electric run at some point in the year, he’s more Oneil Cruz than Elly de la Cruz in terms of output.

I know Hunter Goodman has Coors to sustain him but his AVG will be quite BABIP-dependent given his 0.22 BB/K (0.19 for PCA; 0.38 lg avg. for context) and while we know Coors is a great place to hit, it can’t hit for you… meaning you can fail there. Loved him last yr bc he was so cheap, but a little less interested at full price, especially with C’s depth.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out. Sorry for being late, but I went past 2pm CT to cover the missed time. Take care and we’ll chat again next week!